economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2015
Unless stated otherwise, the following provides a
summary of Deloitte Access Economics' forecasts
published in its Business Outlook September quarter
2015 report.
Chart 1: Economic Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
Northern Territory
7
6
Economic Growth Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014-15 (estimate)
3.9%
2.4%
2015-16 (forecast)
3.0%
2.2%
5 year average annual growth rate
(2014-15 to 2018-19)
3.6%
2.6%
Economic Growth
2014-15
The Territory economy is expected to grow by
3.9 per cent in 2014-15. Growth is expected to be
underpinned by private equipment, engineering and
commercial investment. This is expected to partly
offset by decrease in private housing investment and
an increase in imports.
The Territory is expected to have the highest
economic growth of all jurisdictions in 2014-15, which
range from 0.8 per cent in the
Australian Capital Territory to 2.8 per cent in
New South Wales. Nationally, the economy is
expected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2014-15.
Outlook
The outlook is for the Territory economy to grow by an
average of 3.6 per cent per annum over the five years
to 2018-19. This is the highest economic growth
forecasts of all jurisdictions equal with Queensland. In
other jurisdictions, the five year economic growth
ranges from 1.3 per cent per annum in Tasmania and
the Australian Capital Territory to 3.0 per cent
per annum in Western Australia.
DAE forecasts the national economy to grow by an
average annual rate of 2.6 per cent over the period
2014-15 to 2018-19.
Deloitte Access Economics note that exports are
expected to replace the construction phase of
resource development as the key driver of Territory
economic growth over the medium term.
Territory economic growth over the next five years to
2018-19 is expected to be supported by:



international goods exports, which are forecast to
increase by an average of 11.1 per cent
per annum over the period;
5
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 2: Private Consumption
(year on year percenatage change)
%
14
12
10
8
Northern Territory
6
4
2
Australia
0
-2
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook,
Chart 3: Territory International Trade
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
12
Exports
10
8
Net Exports
6
private equipment investment, which is forecast to
increase by an average of 5.7 per cent per annum
over the next five years; and
4
private consumption, which is forecast to increase
by an average of 3.9 per cent per annum over the
period.
0
Imports
2
-2
-4
05
07
09
11
13
15 e
17 f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Economic Group │ Department of Treasury and Finance │ (08) 8999 6801 │ www.treasury.nt.gov.au │ [email protected]
19 f
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2015
Employment Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014-15 (estimate)
0.3%
1.3%
2015-16 (forecast)
1.8%
1.7%
5 year average growth rate
1.1%
1.4%
DAE expects Territory employment to increase by
0.3 per cent in 2014-15 and strengthen to 1.8 per cent
in 2015-16 (Chart 4).
Between 2014-15 and 2018-19, employment in the
Territory is forecast to grow on average by
1.1 per cent per annum. In other jurisdictions the five
year average annual employment growth forecast
ranges between 0.2 per cent in the
Australian Capital Territory and 1.7 per cent in
Western Australia.
DAE expects national employment to grow by an
average annual rate of 1.4 per cent per annum over
the next five years.
The Territory’s unemployment rate is forecast to
average 4.9 per cent over the five years to 2018-19,
compared to 6.2 per cent nationally. This is the lowest
average annual unemployment rate of all jurisdictions
equal with the Australian Capital Territory. In other
jurisdictions, the average annual unemployment rate
over the next five years ranges from 6.0 per cent in
the New South Wales and Victoria to 7.2 per cent in
South Australia.
Population Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014 -15 (estimate)
0.3%
1.4%
2015-16 (forecast)
0.6%
1.4%
5 year average growth rate
1.0%
1.4%
DAE estimates the Territory population will grow by
0.3 per cent per annum in 2014-15.
Over the next five years, DAE is forecasting the
Territory's population to grow by an average annual
rate of 1.0 per cent, compared to an average of
1.4 per cent per annum nationally (Chart 5).
The five year average annual population growth
forecast for the Territory is the third lowest of the
jurisdictions. In the other jurisdictions, average annual
population growth forecasts over the five years to
2018-19 range between 0.3 per cent per annum in
Tasmania and 1.8 per cent per annum in
Western Australia.
Consumer Price Index Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014-15 (estimate)
1.4%
1.7%
2015-16 (forecast)
1.9%
2.5%
5 year average growth rate
2.0%
2.3%
DAE expects the Darwin consumer price index (CPI)
to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2014-15 (Chart 6).
However, DAE forecasts Darwin CPI to grow by
2.4 per cent in 2016-17.
The five year average annual growth rate forecast for
Darwin CPI to 2018-19 is 2.0 per cent per annum,
marginally lower than the national average annual
increase of 2.3 per cent per annum.
Chart 4: Employment Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
7
Northern Territory
6
5
4
3
2
Australia
1
0
-1
-2
-3
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 5: Population Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
3.0
Northern Territory
2.5
2.0
Australia
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 6: CPI Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
5
Northern Territory
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
2
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2015
Table 1: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, %
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
Australia
2.4
2.5
1.4
1.3
6.1
1.7
NT
3.9
1.6
0.3
-0.3
4.2
1.4
Year on year percentage change, 2014-15
NSW
Vic
Qld
2.8
2.0
2.7
3.4
2.4
2.3
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.9
0.3
5.9
6.4
6.6
1.9
1.4
1.9
SA
1.9
2.5
0.9
0.7
6.8
1.6
WA
2.4
1.0
1.5
1.8
5.3
1.8
Tas
1.7
0.5
0.3
3.3
6.8
1.1
ACT
0.8
0.8
1.2
-0.8
4.6
1.1
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.2
2.9
1.4
1.7
6.2
2.5
3.0
4.2
0.6
1.8
4.7
1.9
Year on year percentage change 2015-16
2.1
1.2
3.8
2.3
3.0
3.3
1.3
1.6
1.3
2.6
1.5
1.3
6.0
6.0
6.4
2.7
2.4
2.6
0.3
2.6
0.8
0.6
7.8
2.4
2.4
4.0
1.7
1.1
6.3
2.5
0.8
1.5
0.2
0.7
6.5
2.4
0.0
1.4
1.2
0.0
4.9
2.2
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.6
3.0
1.4
1.4
6.2
2.3
3.6
3.9
1.0
1.1
4.9
2.0
Five year average annual growth to 2018-19
2.5
2.2
3.6
1.5
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.5
1.3
1.7
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.6
1.2
0.7
6.0
6.0
6.3
7.2
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.3
3.0
3.3
1.8
1.7
6.1
2.3
1.3
1.7
0.3
1.1
6.6
2.2
1.3
2.1
1.2
0.2
4.9
2.2
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Table 2: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, rank
Rank
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
NT
1
5
7
7
1
3
NSW
2
1
3
4
4
8
2014-15
Vic
5
3
1
2
5
4
Qld
3
4
4
6
6
7
SA
6
2
6
5
7
5
WA
4
6
2
3
3
6
Tas
7
8
8
1
8
1
ACT
8
7
5
8
2
2
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2
1
7
2
1
1
4
6
4
1
4
8
2015-16
5
4
2
3
3
3
1
3
3
4
6
7
7
5
6
7
8
5
3
2
1
5
5
6
6
7
8
6
7
4
8
8
5
8
2
2
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
1
1
6
5
1
1
Five year average annual growth to 2018-19
4
5
2
6
5
3
4
6
4
2
3
7
3
2
4
7
4
3
6
8
7
4
8
5
3
2
1
1
5
6
7
8
8
6
7
3
8
7
5
8
2
2
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1 = Best, 8 = Worst
3
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2015
Table 3: Deloitte Access Economics - Business Outlook – Forecasts
Northern Territory
Gross State product
Constant price ($m)
% change
Northern Territory as a share of Australian output %
Real final demand
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private consumption
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private housing investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private eng and comm investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private equipment investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
International exports
Constant price ($m)
% change
International imports
Constant price ($m)
% change
Retail turnover
Constant price ($m)
% change
Total population
Persons (’000s)
% change
Population aged 15 and over
Persons (’000s)
% change
Employment (’000s)
Persons (’000s)
% change
Unemployment
Persons (’000s)
Unemployment rate
%
Consumer Price Index
1989-90 = 100
% change
Average Weekly Earnings
$
% change
Wage Price Index
$
% change
Australia
Gross domestic product
International exports
International imports
Total population
Population aged 15 to 64
Employment (’000s)
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Consumer Price Index
Average Weekly Earnings
Wage Price Index
2014-15
22 033
3.9
1.4%
30 457
6.9
9449
1.6
908
-5.8
9,452
14.1
1,336
28.7
6 200
4.0
4 817
43.1
2 966
-0.9
244
0.3
185
0.9
132
-0.3
5.7
4.2
108.4
1.4
1241.83
2.0
121.35
2.6
2014-15
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
%
1989-90 = 100
% change
$
% change
% change
2015-16
22 704
3.0
1.4%
29 029
-4.7
9846
4.2
944
4.0
8,383
-11.3
1,050
-21.4
5 661
-8.7
4 650
-3.5
3 016
1.7
246
0.6
187
0.6
134
1.8
6.7
4.7
110.4
1.9
1296.98
4.4
124.28
2.4
2015-16
2016-17
23 624
4.1
1.4%
26 843
-7.5
10340
5.0
939
-0.6
4,872
-41.9
1,281
22.1
7 817
38.1
3 953
-15.0
3 116
3.3
248
1.0
189
1.3
135
0.8
7.2
5.1
113.1
2.4
1330.98
2.6
127.25
2.4
2016-17
2017-18
24 599
4.1
1.4%
26 681
-0.6
10819
4.6
938
0.0
3,928
-19.4
1,291
0.7
9 482
21.3
4 080
3.2
3 211
3.0
252
1.4
192
1.6
137
1.4
7.4
5.2
115.6
2.2
1371.60
3.1
130.90
2.9
5 year
average
annual
2018-19 growth
25 352
3.1
3.6
1.4%
27 261
2.2
-0.9
11251
4.0
3.9
916
-2.3
-1.0
3,724
-5.2
-14.8
1,369
6.0
5.7
10 093
6.4
11.1
4 278
4.9
4.9
3 311
3.1
2.0
255
1.5
1.0
195
1.7
1.2
139
1.6
1.1
7.6
5.2
4.9
118.2
2.3
2.0
1416.68
3.3
3.1
134.95
3.1
2.7
2017-18
5 year
average
annual
2018-19 growth
# 1 596 118 1 630 687 1 676 172 1 727 877 1 774 421
2.4
2.2
2.8
3.1
2.7
#
281 095
291 684
302 564
318 299
336 035
6.4
3.8
3.7
5.2
5.6
#
253 307
246 213
240 567
248 777
259 960
1.2
-2.8
-2.3
3.4
4.5
#
23 667
23 992
24 334
24 690
25 057
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
#
19 132
19 414
19 689
19 972
20 266
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
#
11 620
11 813
11 943
12 117
12 305
1.3
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.6
#
757
783
792
796
794
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.1
#
106.8
109.5
112.3
115.1
117.8
1.7
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
#
1130.75
1156.37
1184.84
1220.58
1261.92
1.3
2.3
2.5
3.0
3.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.8
3.2
2.6
4.9
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.4
6.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1. Base year 2012-13.
4
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics September quarter 2015
Table 4: Deloitte Access Economics - Financial Outlook - Forecasts
Treasury bonds
3 year
5 year
10 year
Standard variable mortgage interest rate
Commercial bank bills:
90 days
180 days
Exchange rates
Trade weighted index
$US per $A
Yen per $A
Euro per $A
Crude oil prices
Crude oil (Tapis, $US/barrel)
% change
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
3.0%
3.4%
4.1%
1.7%
1.9%
2.5%
2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
2.7%
3.0%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
4.0%
3.6%
3.9%
4.4%
6.0%
5.7%
5.4%
5.6%
5.7%
5.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.3%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
2.7%
2.7%
3.2%
3.2%
70.5
0.918
92.9
0.680
68.5
0.867
95.8
0.694
60.9
0.713
88.7
0.650
59.7
0.695
87.8
0.627
60.1
0.702
87.4
0.623
60.9
0.715
88.1
0.615
116.19
2.4%
75.44
-35.1%
50.34
-33.3%
50.64
0.6%
54.26
7.2%
76.45
18.7%
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Although all due care has been exercised in the preparation of this material, no responsibility is accepted for any
errors or omission.
5