Project Management SEEM 3530 1 Project Management Project Screening and Selection Project Organisation and Structure Project Scheduling and Management CPM/PERT, crashing, resource management LP models Managing Multiple Projects Project Control SEEM 3530 2 Project Organisation and Structure Organisation Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown Structure SEG 3530 3 Project Organisation A project is a one-time effort to achieve a specific goal within a certain time and under a given set of resources and budgeting constraints. A project is usually too large to be accomplished by a single person within the scheduled time frame. Thus, project management involves the breakdown of the entire project into tasks, the allocation of tasks to the participating units and project team members, and the continuous integration of output from participating units and team members. SEG 3530 4 Project Structure To have a better coordination among different participating units and among the project team members, it is important for a project manager to know how to organize and structure a project. There are two types of “structures” involved in a project: • The organizational breakdown structure (OBS). • The work breakdown structure (WBS). SEG 3530 5 Organizational structures The following three types of organizational structures are commonly adopted by companies: • Function-oriented organizational structure; • Project-oriented organizational structure; • Matrix organizational structure. SEG 3530 6 Function-oriented organizational structure The organizational structure is designed around the functions performed by each organizational unit. SEG 3530 7 Function-oriented organizational structure Advantages: • Similar processes are performed by the same organizational elements, and thus capital investment is minimized. • Efficient use of collective experience and facilities to perform a same function. • Encourages long-term planning and resource allocation. • Encourages development of advanced technology in anticipation of future business. • Career continuity and growth for technical personnel; fostering stability, security and morale. • Good technology transfer between projects. SEG 3530 8 Function-oriented organizational structure Disadvantages: • Weak interface with customer. • Weak project authority. • Poor communications among functions; slower work flow for projects. • Tendency of decisions to favor strongest functional group. • Not quite suitable for project management SEG 3530 9 Project-oriented organizational structure The organizational structure is designed around the activities for projects. SEG 3530 10 Project-oriented organizational structure Advantages: • Strong control by a single project authority. • Rapid reaction time. • Encourages performance, schedule, and cost tradeoffs. • Personnel accountable to a single project. • Interfaces well with outside units. • Good interface with customer; single point of contact. SEG 3530 11 Project-oriented organizational structure Disadvantages: • Duplication of resources, as similar processes and activities are performed by different units of the organization on different projects. • Due to the limited life span of projects, long-term technology investment is discouraged. • Knowledge/Know-how gained may be lost in future; poor crossfeed of technical info between projects. • Minimal career continuity for project personnel; no loyalty and alliances among workers; insecurity regarding future job assignments. SEG 3530 12 Matrix organizational structure A combination of the function-oriented structure with the project-oriented structure, with well-defined interfaces between projects teams and functional elements. SEG 3530 13 Matrix organizational structure - Benefits Better utilization of resources. Because the functional manager assigns resources to all projects, he/she can allocate resources in the most efficient manner. State-of-the-art technology. The knowledge gained from various projects is accumulated at the functional level. Adaptation to changing environments. The matrix structure can adapt to changing conditions, including the arrival of new projects, the termination of existing projects, etc. The experience and technology are not lost when projects terminate since the experts are kept within the functional units. Combination of the strengths of functional and projectoriented organizations. SEG 3530 14 Matrix organization - Potential difficulties Authority. Whereas the resources are under the control of the functional manager in the long run, it is the project manager who assigns them to work on a day-to-day basis. Communications. Workers have to report to their functional manager and to their project manager to whom they are assigned. Double reporting is difficult to develop and manage. Conflict in goals. The project manager tends to see the shortterm objectives of the project most clearly, while the functional manager typically focuses on the long-term goals. These different perspectives frequently conflict and create friction within the organization. SEG 3530 15 Project Work Structure In setting up a project we also need to specify the set of tasks involved. This process is the “work breakdown”. A Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a schematic presentation that divides the project into tasks to be accomplished. It usually appears in a hierarchical structure. Complicated task is subdivided into several smaller tasks. Process continued until task can no longer be subdivided. SEG 3530 16 Work Breakdown Structure SEG 3530 17 Work breakdown structure (WBS) Work Package - The entity that consists of a task to be performed by an organizational unit for a given schedule and budget is called a work package. As for the entire project, each work package should specify: • Objectives - What are to be achieved. • Deliverables – What are to be produced (hardware, software, reports, recommendations, etc.) • Schedule – When to do what. • Budget – A time-phrased allocation of monetary resource for the task. • Performance measures – How to judge the success of the task. • Responsibility – The organizational unit responsible for the task. This is done by associating a task in the WBS with an organizational unit in the OBS (Organizational breakdown structure). SEG 3530 18 Work breakdown structure (WBS) A project may be structured as different WBSs. The choice depends on how you would like the project to be executed. SEG 3530 19 Work breakdown structure (WBS) Example: A university initiates a project to design a new MBA program. The development of a specific course for the program can be defined as a task, and the organizational unit responsible for that course (a professor) can be associated with the task to form a work package. SEG 3530 20 Work breakdown structure (WBS) Approach 1 -- Divide the entire project directly into work packages. Suppose there are 30 courses required in the program and each course is designed by one processor, then there are 30 work packages, as illustrated below. SEG 3530 21 Work breakdown structure (WBS) Approach 2 -- Divide the entire project by functional area and then further divide the work content in each area into specific work packages, as illustrated below. SEG 3530 22 Work breakdown structure (WBS) Approach 3 -- Divide the entire project according to the year in the program, then functional areas, and then specific work packages. SEG 3530 23 Work breakdown structure (WBS) WBS selected should be 1.Complete – it should capture all the work to be performed for the project. 2.Detailed – its lowest level should specify the executable tasks with specific schedules, budgets, objectives, and the deliverables. 3.Accurate – after the work is divided into tasks, the output of the tasks can be integrated to form the desired complete product of the project. SEG 3530 24 Integrating WBS with OBS Integrating a unit of OBS with a task of WBS generates a work package. Work packages are the elements to be used and managed by the project manager for planning, control, and execution. SEG 3530 25 Project Management Project Screening and Selection Project Organisation and Structure Project Scheduling and Management CPM/PERT, crashing, resource management LP models Managing Multiple Projects Project Control SEEM 3530 26 Project Monitoring and Control SEEM 3530 27 Plan vs. Implementation A detailed plan covering the technological, budgetary, scheduling, organizational, and risk-related aspects is essential to the success of a project. However, in practice, it is inevitable that uncertainty and changing environmental conditions exist, which affect a project in unforeseen ways. The actual execution of a project will most likely deviate from the original plans that are made based on estimation of such factors as activity durations, resource availability, labour efficiency, and cost, each of which may be subject to a high degree of variations. Thus, a fundamental need exists to have a proper and effective project control. SEEM 3530 28 Control Systems Formal systems: accounting, periodic status reports, scheduled milestone meetings, internal audits, client reviews, and external benchmarks Informal systems: meetings, e-mail, and just walking around (MBWA) and asking project team members questions SEEM 3530 29 Project Control The basic function of project control is to monitor the deviations of the actual project execution from its plan, and then to take corrective actions and/or to revise the original plan. Performance measures are important factors in project control, which should represent the most important concerns in project execution and which will affect the decisions on the adoption of corrective/preventive actions aimed at keeping the project on track. SEEM 3530 30 Control System Issues How frequently should performance data be collected, and from what sources? Which performance metrics should be used? How should data be analyzed to detect current and future deviations? How frequently, and to whom, should the results of the analysis be reported? SEEM 3530 31 Controlling Projects Key decisions in controlling performance in project management: • What is the optimal review frequency? • What are appropriate acceptance levels at each review stage? “Both over-managed and under-managed development processes result in lengthy design lead time and high development costs.” R.H. Ahmadi, R. Wang. 1999. Managing Development Risk in Product Design Processes. Operations Research 47, 235-246 SEEM 3530 32 Types of System Variation Common cause variation: “in-control” or normal variation Special cause variation: variation caused by forces that are outside the system Treating common cause variation as if it were special cause variation is called “tampering” Tampering always degrades the performance of a system – W.E. Deming SEEM 3530 33 Control System Example 1 Week 2: Task expenses = 460 worker-hours Planned Cost Week (BCWS) 1 400 2 400 470 Actual Cost 420 460 Actual 460 Cost (in worker-hours) Cumulative Actual Cost (ACWP) 420 880 450 440 430 420 Planned 410 400 390 Is the task “out of control”? 380 370 1 2 3 4 Week SEEM 3530 34 Control System Example 1 Week 3: Task expenses = 500 worker-hrs Week Planned cost (worker-hours ) Actual cost (worker-hours ) Cumulative cos t (worker-hours ) 1 2 3 400 400 400 420 460 500 420 880 1380 600 Actual Worker-hours 500 400 Planned 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 Again, is the task “out of control”? Week SEEM 3530 35 Earned Value Analysis A cost control and accounting system developed by the U.S. Department of Defense (1962) Integrates cost, schedule, and work performed Based on three metrics that are used as building blocks: • ACWP: Actual cost of work performed • BCWS: Budgeted cost of work scheduled (Planned Value) • BCWP: Budgeted cost of work performed (Earned Value) SEEM 3530 36 The earned value approach Budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS) is defined as the cost (in monetary units) of the work scheduled to be accomplished in a given period of time. Actual cost of work performed (ACWP) is defined as the cost actually incurred and recorded in accomplishing the work performed within the control period. Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP) is defined as the monetary value of the work actually accomplished within the control period. This is also called the earned value. SEEM 3530 37 Estimation of BCWP Estimating BCWP requires the manager to estimate the proportion of work completed during each period. This may be difficult if value accrues mainly at the end, e.g. software development project. Fixed rules to estimate BCWP generally take the form: • X% completed at the start of a task • (1-X)% completed at the end of a task SEEM 3530 38 Performance Metrics for Example 1 Week BCWS ACWP 1 2 3 4 SEEM 3530 400 800 1,200 1,600 420 880 1,380 1,500 Percent of work completed (PWC) 23% 50% 85% 100% BCWP 368 800 1,360 1,600 39 Budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS) • Example, suppose three activities (A, B, and E) are scheduled to start from the first week of the project, assuming an early start schedule. The duration and cost of these activities are summarized in Table 11-2. SEEM 3530 40 Actual Performance Actual performance for the first month of the project (weeks 1 through 4) is summarized below. SEEM 3530 41 Performance Measures (Activity A) SEEM 3530 42 Performance Measures (Activity B) SEEM 3530 43 Performance Measures (Activity E) This activity is late and experiences a budget overrun. SEEM 3530 44 The earned value approach Performance measures: BCWS: The value of the work scheduled, calculated at the cost rate according to the budget. BCWP: The value of the work actually performed, calculated at the cost rate according to the budget. (The EV) ACWP: The actual cost of the work actually performed. These three measures are the basis by which deviations in cost and schedule are detected. SEEM 3530 45 Schedule Variance (SV) Schedule Variance (SV) ═ difference between value of work completed and value of scheduled work ═ Earned Value - Planned Value ═ BCWP - BCWS Week BCWS ACWP PWC BCWP SV 1 400 420 23% 368 (32) 2 800 880 50% 800 0 3 1,200 1,380 85% 1,360 160 4 1,600 1,500 100% 1,600 0 SEEM 3530 46 Schedule deviations The schedule variance (SV) is defined as: SV = BCWP - BCWS SV indicates (in monetary units) the deviation between the work content performed and the work content scheduled for the control period. If SV > 0, the progress is ahead of schedule; If SV = 0, the progress is on schedule; If SV < 0, the progress is behind schedule. SEEM 3530 47 Example - Schedule deviations Thus, based on the SV values, we can conclude that (for the control period of 4 weeks): In activity A, the work performed is worth $300 more than what was planned for the control period, thus the processing of A is ahead of schedule. In activity B, the work performed is exactly equal to what was planned (although taking one more week), thus the processing of B has no variance by week 4. In activity E, the work performed is worth $1628 less that what was planned, thus the processing of E is behind the schedule. SEEM 3530 48 Schedule deviations The cumulative variance is an indication in terms of the work content performed for the whole project. A negative cumulative variance indicates that the project is late. The schedule delay detected by the earned value analysis should be monitored closely. When the delay exceeds the control level, analysis of resource requirements should be initiated to test whether, due to resource limits, the entire project may be delayed. If yes, additional resources may have to be allocated to speed up the relevant activities. SEEM 3530 49 Cost Variance (CV) Cost Variance (CV) ═ difference between value of work completed and actual expenditures ═ Earned Value - Actual Cost ═ BCWP - ACWP Week BCWS ACWP PWC BCWP CV 1 400 420 23% 368 (52) 2 800 880 50% 800 (80) 3 1,200 1,380 85% 1,360 (20) 4 1,600 1,500 100% 1,600 100 SEEM 3530 50 Cost deviations The cost variance (CV) is defined as : CV = BCWP - ACWP CV indicates (in monetary units) the deviation between the budgeted cost of work performed and the actual cost of work performed for the control period. If CV > 0, the progress consumes less cost than budget; If CV = 0, the progress is on budget; If CV < 0, the progress is over budget. SEEM 3530 51 Cost deviations For the example project, we have: Thus, based on the CV values, we can conclude that: Activities A and B are exactly on budget. Activity E, however, shows a budget overrun of $1272, since the work performed on this activity was budgeted at $1628 whereas the actual cost turned out to be $2900. SEEM 3530 52 Total Variance (TV) Total Variance =Cost Variance–Schedule Variance =(BCWP-ACWP)-(BCWP-BCWS) =BCWS-ACWP Week BCWS ACWP PWC BCWP TV 1 400 420 23% 368 (20) 2 800 880 50% 800 (80) 3 1,200 1,380 85% 1,360 (180) 4 1,600 1,500 100% 1,600 100 SEEM 3530 53 Time Variance (tV) Ο Time Variance = (BAC * PWC) – Current Time BAC: Budget at Completion After week 3 PWC: Percent of Work Completed tV =4 * 85% - 3 =0.4 (weeks) Week BCWS ACWP PWC BCWP tV 1 400 420 23% 368 (0.08) 2 800 880 50% 800 0 3 1,200 1,380 85% 1,360 0.4 4 1,600 1,500 100% 1,600 0 SEEM 3530 54 Earned Value Metrics Illustrated Worker-Hours Present time Planned Value (BCWS) BAC Budget at Completion Actual Cost (ACWP) Cost Variance (CV) Earned Value (BCWP) Schedule Variance (SV) SEEM 3530 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 55 Schedule Index and Cost Index SV and CV are absolute measures indicating deviations between planned performance and actual progress. Based on these measures, it is difficult to judge the relative schedule and cost deviation. A relative measure is important because a $1000 cost overrun of an activity budgeted for $500 is clearly more troublesome than the same overrun on an activity budgeted for $50,000. A schedule index (SI) and a cost index (CI) are designed to be the relative measures of schedule and cost performances, respectively. SEEM 3530 56 Relative Measure: Schedule Index Schedule Index (SI ) = BCWP BCWS If SI = 1, the task is on schedule If SI > 1, the task is ahead of schedule If SI < 1, the task is behind schedule Q: When is SV = BCWP-BCWS more useful than SI, and vice versa? SEEM 3530 57 Relative Measure: Cost Index Cost Index (CI) = BCWP ACWP o If CI = 1, then work completed equals payments o If CI > 1, then work completed is ahead of payments (cost saving) o If CI < 1, then work completed is behind payments (cost overrun) As on the previous page, sometimes CV is more useful than CI, and vice versa. SEEM 3530 58 Schedule Index and Cost Index For the example project 4 weeks after its starts, we have: SEEM 3530 59 Schedule Index and Cost Index -Example The values in the table above indicate that during the control period: For activity A, 25% more work was performed than planned (since SI=1.25), but at the exact cost budgeted for that work content (since CI=1). For activity B, the planned work content was performed at the planned cost (since SI=1 and CI=1). For activity E, only half of the planned work content was performed (since SI=0.5), and the planned cost of performing that work content was only 56% (since CI=0.56) of the actual cost. SEEM 3530 60 Integrated Schedule and Cost Index To integrate schedule and cost information, the values of SI and CI are plotted together in the Figure below. Each point on the graph corresponds to a control period. By observing the time associated with each point, it is possible to see the trend in the cost and schedule indices. The objective of project management is to have both SI and CI larger than or equal to 1, which would place them in the upper right quadrant of the above figure. SEEM 3530 The above figure shows an improvement from weeks 1 to 2, followed by a poor performance from weeks 2 to 3, and an improvement again from weeks 3 to 4. 61 Control System Example 2 cumulative SEEM 3530 62 Control System Example 2 Progress report at the end of week #5: Cumulative Percent of Work Completed: Worker-Hours Charged to Project: SEEM 3530 63 Control System Example 2 Progress report at the end of week #5: SV=BCWP-BCWS CV=BCWP-ACWP SEEM 3530 64 Control System Example 2 WorkerHours SEEM 3530 65 Using a Fixed 20/80 Rule Cumulative Percent of Work Completed: 1 Week Task A 20% Task B Task C 2 3 4 5 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Assume that 20% of a task’s work is completed when it is started, and 80% when it is finished Not started yet W E E K Cumulative Scheduled Worker-Hrs (BCWS) Actual WorkerHrs Used (ACWP) Earned Value (BCWP) Schedule Variance (SV) Cost Variance SEEM 3530 (CV) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6 12 18 38 60 82 92 104 116 128 5 11 19 44 64 7.2 7.2 7.2 14.4 14.4 1.2 -4.8 -10.8 -23.6 -45.6 SV=BCWP-BCWS 2.2 -3.8 -11.8 -29.6 -49.6 CV=BCWP-ACWP 66 Using a Fixed 20/80 Rule WorkerHours SEEM 3530 67 Updating cost and schedule estimates When data on the current status of the activities and actual costs are collected, we can update estimates of the project’s completion time and budgetary requirements. New estimates derived from updated information are the basis of trend analysis. The revised estimate may cause: • a change of design specification so that the expected total cost will not exceed the budget; • a change in schedule aimed at re-planning future cash flow according to available budgets; or • in the extreme, a complete abandonment of the whole project. SEEM 3530 68 Updating Forecasts: Pessimistic Viewpoint (Example 2) Assumes that the rate of cost overrun will continue for the life of the project. SEEM 3530 69 Updating Forecasts: Optimistic Viewpoint (Example 2) Assumes that no further cost overruns will occur. Estimate at Completion (EAC) = BAC – CV = 128+11.8 = 139.8 worker hrs SEEM 3530 70 Boondoggles A “boondoggle” is a technically successful project that is allowed to continue, long after its operators have realized that it is never going to be commercially successful. This word originated from a 1935 New York Times article criticizing New Deal government expenditure on training the unemployed to “make boon doggles”. Recently, “boondoogle” has been used more broadly, for example to describe a business trip to a resort destination during which little work gets done! SEEM 3530 71 Boondoggle Examples A notorious boondoggle is RCA’s Selectavision video disk system, developed in 1970. It used LP-sized disks. It was launched in 1980, but demand was initially weak. This led RCA to invest in new models even while emerging digital technology was making them obsolete. By the time the project was finally killed in 1984, it had cost $750m and tied up resources for 14 years. RCA went bankrupt in 1988. Another notorious boondoggle is the Anglo-French Concorde project. By the mid-1970s, it was obvious both to the airlines and the public that the project could not compete with lower cost alternative transport. Nevertheless, Concorde aircraft continued to be built and passenger services continued to be operated for another 25 years. SEEM 3530 72 Reasons for Boondoggles Widespread persistent belief among management in the inevitability of the project’s success: “failure is impossible” mentality Managers have their reputations invested in the projects they started Recommendations by others to abandon the project are seen as disloyal, and are ignored Charismatic and persuasive “project champions” Reduced performance benchmarks Fear of the organizational consequences of admitting failure Symbolic value of the project, e.g. Concorde SEEM 3530 73 How to Avoid Boondoggles Establish benchmarks for success and failure and stick with them Be open to different views Rotate management in and out of the project Limit the consequences of admitting failure Ensure that project progress evaluation is unbiased Recognize that no single project is as important as the success of the overall organization Appoint an “exit champion” to play the role of Devil’s Advocate against the project SEEM 3530 74 Closing a Project (1 of 2) This is one of the most important, but frequently undervalued, parts of a project. • In many cases, this project management step is viewed as wasted effort, as it “produces nothing”. • Failing to close a project the right way can prevent you from ending expenditure, gaining formal client acceptance, and create confusion as to the state of the project. • It also keeps you from adequately building the project archive, which is valuable to future planning of similar projects. SEEM 3530 75 Closing a Project (2 of 2) This is one of the most important, but frequently undervalued, parts of a project. • It is the project manager’s responsibility to prove to management the importance of proper project closing. While “Planning” is probably the most important phase to the success of this project, “Closing” is the most important to the success of future projects. • The project manager has to demonstrate empirically how “lessons learned” on a past project have materialized into gains on a current project. • “Commodity”-type projects, which are often similar to others, are perfect candidates; an example is annual software updates. SEEM 3530 76 Problems with Recognizing Project Failure Dilbert by Scott Adams SEEM 3530 77
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