ES/SDOE 678
Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises
File1.3
Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance
Session 1: Course Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems
School of Systems and Enterprises
Stevens Institute of Technology, USA
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1:1
Introductions
File
Your background?
What do you do here?
Why do you want a Master of SE degree?
Expectations from this course?
Current passionate pursuits?
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1:2
Guest Speaker: Joe Justice
Team WikiSpeed
File10
12Nov2011• TEDx Rainier Seattle, Washington
Joe Justice and Team Wikispeed hand build a new deliverable
street-legal, 100+ MPG car every 3 months, with new subsystem
iterations every 7 days: 0-60 mph in 5 seconds, 149 mph top
speed, with a sexy you-want-it carbon fiber sports car body. All
done by a remote collaboration agile development process with
volunteers working nights and weekends from many countries
around the world.
They satisfy critical safety regulations, and develop innovative
technologies to solve automotive issues that exceed what is
available from the major manufacturers.
You don’t want the sports car body? They’ll make you one with a truck body, or a
family-car body, whatever, under $20k. You want a different engine? They can swap out
whatever is there for another one in the time it takes to change a tire.
Video and audio at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8jdx-lf2Dw
Transcript at: www.parshift.com/s/JusticeJoe-TEDx-WikiSpeed-10min-Transcript.pdf
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1:3
4. Technical Processes (for instance)
(Certified Systems Engineering Professional) 4.1 Business/Mission Analysis
4.2 Stakeholder Needs & Requirements
4.3 System Requirements Definition
4.4 Architectural Definition
4.5 Design Definition
4.6 Systems Analysis
4.7 Implementation
4.8 Integration
4.9 Verification
4.10 Transition
4.11 Validation
4.12 Operation
4.13 Maintenance
4.14 Disposal
Systems engineering is a discipline that
concentrates on the design and
application of the whole (system) as
distinct from the parts. It involves looking
at a problem in its entirety, taking into
account all the facets and all the variables
and relating the social to the technical
aspect. (Ramo)
Systems engineering is an iterative
process of top-down synthesis,
development, and operation of a realworld system that satisfies, in a near
Version 4.0 Julyt 2015
optimal manner, the full range of
requirements for the system. (Eisner) 1:4
Members $20, or free e-download
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Supports the CSEP exam
Early Conceptual Work
Enables and Constrains
System Possibilities
"…the
development of a
basic idea and the
first embodiment
of the idea; these
two initial activities
are often called
invention and are
usually not part of
the engineering of
a system…"
Dennis Buede
Buede's book addresses
the procedures and
processes that turn
concept into reality. That
is the process part of
Systems Engineering
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1:5
ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288–2015
Systems and Software Engineering Processes
Agreement
Processes
Organizational
ProjectEnabling
Processes
Technical
Management
Processes
Technical
Processes
Acquisition
Life Cycle
Model
Management
Infrastructure
Management
Project Portfolio
Management
Human Resource
Management
Knowledge
Management
Quality
Management
Project
Planning
Project Assess
and Control
Decision
Management
Risk
Management
Configuration
Management
Information
Management
Measurement
Quality
Assurance
Stakeholder
Needs and
Requirements
Business/Mission Analysis
Special
Processes
Supply
Architectural
Definition
System
Requirements
Evaluation
Operation
Integration
Verification
Transition
Maintenance
Disposal
Validation
Implementation
Tailoring
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1:6
Research
Asynchronous/
Simultaneous
Agile SE
Life-Cycle
Framework
Situational awareness
and evaluation of
external and internal
environments and
evolution,
for threat and
Concept
Retirement
opportunity. Identify needs.
Store, archive or
Explore concepts.
dispose of sub-systems
Engage
Propose viable solutions.
and/or system.
Support
Provide sustained
system capability.
Agile
Sys Eng
Life
Cycle
Criteria
This framework
is consistent with
ISO/IEC/IEEE
standards
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Development
Refine requirements.
Describe solution.
Build system.
Verify & validate.
Utilization
Production
Operate system
to satisfy users' needs.
Produce systems.
Inspect and test.
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1:7
Setting Expectations
All slides in course material will not be reviewed/presented/discussed,
…they are there to draw upon as appropriate, and for later reference.
Some slides not in the regular course material will be employed,
…for case studies as emerging interests indicate.
Some slides are very dense and not screen-viewable at a distance,
…they augment the text with reference material viewable on your PC.
This is not a Systems Engineering Process course,
…those are available under appropriately different course titles.
This course focuses on design and engineering concepts,
…that enable responsive/adaptable systems.
Various thinking-tools and thinking-disciplines are introduced,
…thinking fruitfully is a creative activity, not a procedure.
This is not a software-systems engineering course,
…nor focused on any other specific systems domain.
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1:8
Learning Opportunity
X-Ray Vision
Architecture Design Methodology
Conceptual Design Methodology
Domain Independent Principles
Learning requires three things:
1) Your belief that value exists in the learning
2) Your desire to learn
3) Some similarity to what you already know
Warnings:
1) Examples will generally not be your system types
2) Abstract thinking is the purpose
3) Enabling creative innovation is the aim
4) Comfortable comprehension does not occur in a few days
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1:9
Administrative
Each SDOE module contains the equivalent content of a traditionally taught,
thirteen week graduate course. The compressed lecture schedule employed by
SDOE enables students to complete the classroom portion of a course over five,
eight-hour days. While this format provides greater flexibility to the full-time
professional student, it also requires a particular focus on student attendance.
Therefore, the SDOE Attendance Policy is as follows:
Time Missed
Approver
Make-Up Work
< 4 Total Hours Course Instructor
Discretion of Instructor
4-8 Total Hours Associate Dean,
Assignment Consistent
Professional Programs with Missed Time
> 8 Total Hours Associate Dean,
Student May be Required
Professional Programs to Repeat Course
In any event, the student is accountable for all presented material and class
direction.
The graduate grading cycle:
A
AB+
4.0
3.7
3.3
B
3.0
B2.7
C+
2.3
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C
2.0
C1.7
F
0
1:10
Readings, References, Text
Text book: Response Ability – The Language, Structure, and Culture of
the Agile Enterprise, Wiley, 2001.
Relevant inter-session readings will be suggested during the course.
--some are necessary--
A reference list is provided for additional and continued self-study,
with Internet links where available.
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1:11
Downloadable Reference Materials
Additional materials and case studies
will be selected for use during class.
Many are available for download from:
www.parshift.com/678/support.htm
Tool templates for use during class should be on your CD.
They are also available for download from the URL referenced above.
These downloadable materials change over time.
…so what will be found there in the weeks following class
may be different than what is there during class.
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1:12
Best Before Unit Starts
SDOE
678
Web Links and Useful Reading for Indicated Session – Need Before Unit Starts
Unit
1
 Book:
Preface and Chap 1, pgs 3-30 (entire chapter)
Unit
2
 Book:
Chap 2, pgs 30-46 (up to ADAPTABLE CULTURE section)
Unit
3
 Book: Chap 3, pgs 67-87, and pgs 120-127
 Article: Team WikiSpeed Methods and Terms
Unit
4
 Book: Chap 3, pgs 87-108
 Paper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 1
 Transcript: Managing Collaborative Multi-National Teams
Unit
5
 Book: Chap 5, pgs 133-160
 Term Project Guidance
Unit
6
 Book: Chap 8, pgs 214-234
 Paper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 2
 Transcript: Hallway Open Q&A
Unit
7
 Book: Chap 7, pgs 188-213
 Paper: Case Study: SSC-Pac Agile-Wave Process for Unmanned Ground Vehicle Technology Development
Unit
8
 Book: Chap 6 pgs 161-187
 Term Project Guidance
Unit
9
 Book: Chap 10, pgs 289-304
 Video: A Theory for the Agile Movement – Dave Snowden and the Cynefin Framework
Unit
10
 Book:
01Apr2017
Chap 10, 276-289
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1:13
Grading (Individual Term Project – Not Teams)
10% on class participation:
Peer review presentations: demonstration of relevant knowledge application.
Peer review contributions: collaborative engagement with projects of others.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable application of course materialand readings.
30% on operational model – Midterm deliverable
Two-page operational story: clear evidence of an agile system in operation
demonstrated with environment CURVE, response objectives, requirements,
values, response enabling principles, and operational/integrity management.
Three-element response ability model: relevance and clarity of key concepts in
RS Analysis, RRS Principles, and Agile Architectural Pattern diagram.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable application of course material and readings.
60% on conceptual design report – Final deliverable
Articulate a comprehensive new conceptual design, or analysis of an existing
design: response objectives, issues with metrics, and enabling principles;
strategic themes and activity web; closure matrix with descriptions; and
operational management and responsibilities – see 678 Project Guidance
document for the definitive word.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings.
Reality: The first deliverable is key. Your true understanding of necessary fundamentals
is illuminated here. Feedback on this will put your train back on the rails.
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1:14
Course Project (Individual Student work, no Teaming)
(always refer to www.parshift.com/AgileSysAndEnt/ProjGuide/678ProjGuideCurrent.pdf for current requirements)
5 Page Operational Model - Due as deliverable #1
Includes strategic objectives/themes
RSA - JIT Assembly Lines
Operational Story
Life with System X – Agility in Action
By Rick Dove, Paradigm Shift International, e-mail: [email protected], 505-586-1536, Senior Fellow, Agility Forum
Look through Fred Mauck's eyes for a moment. You
work in a GM stamping plant outside of Pittsburgh that
specializes in after-model-year body parts. Your
principal customer is GM's Service Parts Organization.
They might order '73 Chevelle hoods quantity 50, '84
Chevy Impala right fenders quantity 100, or '89 Cutlass
Supreme right front doors quantity 300. Your plant
stamps the sheet metal and then assembles a deliverable
product. Small lots, high variety, hard-to-make-a-buck
stuff.
Every new part that the plant takes on came from a
production process at an OEM plant that occupied some
thousands of square feet on the average; and the part
was made with specialized equipment optimized for
high volume runs and custom built for that part
geometry. To stamp a new deck lid (trunk door) part
you bring in a new die set - maybe six or seven dies,
each the size of a full grown automobile, but weighing
considerably more. And you bring in assembly
equipment from an OEM line that
might consist of a
hemmer to fold
edges of the
A newly built
metal, perhaps a
pre-hemmer for a
custom assembly
two-stage process,
line for each and
dedicated welding
apparatus for
every small-batch
joining the
run, every time, just
inner lid to the
outer lid, adhesive
in time.
equipment for
applying mastic at
part-specific locations, piercer units for part-specific
holes, and automated custom material handling
equipment for moving work between process
workstations.
You got a call a few weeks ago that said your plant
will start making the Celebrity deck lids, and
production has to start in 21 days. Not too bad sometimes you only have four days. For new business
like this your job is to get the necessary assembly
equipment from the OEM plant, reconfigure the
equipment and process to fit your plant, and have
people ready to produce quality parts in the next three
weeks. Others are responsible for the die sets and
stamping end of the production process.
In the last 12 months this happened 300 times. In the
last five years you've recycled some 800,000 square
feet of floor space in OEM plants for new model
production. At this point you have assembly equipment
and process for some 1000 different parts - but no extra
floor space ever came with any of it.
high-variety production - in a business that is
traditionally based on high volume economics - and
you've learned to do it without the usual capital
budget. Eight years at this has evolved some pretty
unique techniques - and a pretty unique culture as
well.
You don't do this by yourself - you're a team
leader that may use almost anyone from anywhere
in the plant. At this point almost everyone is
qualified to help bring in new work - surviving
under these conditions has developed a can-do/letme-at-it attitude almost everywhere, and a shared
understanding of how to do it.
Eight years ago the plant went to a single job
classification in production, cross training everyone
on everything - a press operator one day might
change dies as well, the next day work in the
assembly area building hoods in the morning and
fenders in the afternoon - and the following day go
off to another plant to review a piece of equipment
or part for how to bring it back.
For this new business Jim Lesniewski wanted to
do the initial recon. He went on the last trip too,
experimenting with his video camera. Now he
thinks he's ready to do a perfect taping job. He got
the idea himself while trying to bring several jobs at
once back from another GM facility. This
environment encourages self initiative.
In addition to taping the operational assembly
process he added close-ups of key equipment pieces
this time. In the debrief review everyone saw the
same thing at the same time - there was almost no
debate over what to bring back and what to ignore and you got a jump on the equipment modifications
by seeing what was needed in advance. Some time
ago the value of having a good cross section
represented in these reviews became evident:
nobody gets surprised, everyone shares their
knowledge, and when the eqchine, two welding
robots, the welding fixtures, two press piercers, the
shuttles, the press welders, and the three automated
material handling fixtures. Basically bringing back
a foot print of 200 square feet from a process that
covered 2500 square feet. The rest will go to
salvage disposition while the hemmer goes to
"hemmer heaven" - that place in your plant where
some 200 different hemmers hang out until needed.
That you only need the hemmer is where a key
part of the plant's unique core competency comes to
play. Rather than build a growing variety of product
on some
Operational Story
~ 2 MS Word Pages
RRS - JIT Assembly Lines
ACP
AAP - JIT Assembly Lines
Response Ability Model
3 MS PowerPoint Slides
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Detailed
Conceptual Design
Documentation
---------------Comprehensive
to one
Skilled in the Arts
• Problem/Opportunity/CURVE
• Response Objectives
• Reality Factors
• Response Issues/Metrics
• Strategic Activity Web
• Architecture AAP & Integrity
• Applied RRS Principles
• Closure Matrix
• Conclusion
• References
~ 20-30 Pages
Due as Deliverable #2
1:15
Minimum: 80 Hrs Outside-of-Class Work
10-20 Hrs reading the text book
30-20 Hrs researching and noodling
40 Hrs composing and writing
Strawman budget
You are Graduate Students
A – Thoughtfully engaged with demonstrated application understanding
B – Read, followed instructions, applied tools, demonstrated utility understanding
C – Any of: blew it off, no understanding of basic concepts demonstrated, didn’t
complete the closure matrix and discussion or other basic project steps.
---- This is about: how your system addresses surprises (primary)
not about what your system does functionally (secondary)
Key: When it clicks…that drag-and-drop, plug-and-play (operational activity)
is enabled by “encapsulated” modules and “evolving” frameworks,
and that you have this all around you in your life…and you already know it well:
• Providing dinner for surprise guests
• Assembling a team for a task
• Appreciating your football team in action
• Reconfiguring your home entertainment system or your PC
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1:16
The Professor’s Model
Objective:
1) Cause insightful understanding of permanence
2) Instigate an open community of employment and extension
Belief:
1) The concepts are natural and all around us,
and are already viscerally understood
2) Many types of barriers can inhibit explicit understanding
Short goal:
Rock solid understanding of drag-n-drop, plug-n-play as
architecture of encapsulated modules and evolving framework
Long goal:
Appreciation and utility of the other 8 principles develops naturally
Strategy:
1) Exposure to a wide variety of examples
2) Fast drill-and-practice exercises with critical feedback
3) Discover and overcome individual assimilation barriers
Assumption: The student is equally engaged
Commitment: I will help anyone who shows commitment
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1:17
Minimum: 80 Hrs Outside-of-Class Work
10-20 Hrs reading the text book
30-20 Hrs researching and noodling
40 Hrs composing and writing
Strawman budget
You are Graduate Students
A – Thoughtfully engaged with demonstrated application understanding
B – Read, followed instructions, applied tools, demonstrated utility understanding
C – Any of: blew it off, no understanding of basic concepts demonstrated, didn’t
complete the closure matrix and discussion or other basic project steps.
---- This is about: how your system addresses surprises (primary)
not about what your system does functionally (secondary)
Key: When it clicks…that drag-and-drop, plug-and-play (operational activity)
is enabled by “encapsulated” modules and “evolving” frameworks,
and that you have this all around you in your life…and you already know it well:
• Providing dinner for surprise guests
• Assembling a team for a task
• Appreciating your football team in action
• Reconfiguring your home entertainment system or your PC
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1:18
Exercises During The Class
Time will be allocated during sessions to apply new learning, and
for feed-back reviews of knowledge application.
Collaborative teams will form (more than 4 teams difficult to brief out).
Three types of tool-use exercises will occur during sessions:
1) Class Warm-ups: Instructor records volunteered suggestions.
2) Team Trials: A trial stab at using key tools to analyze an
Agile System Development process, with 2 feed-back brief outs.
3) Team Project: Teams work with all tools on team project.
Each team will choose an agile-system engineering project,
with 7 feed-back brief outs.
The subsequent term project will apply all of the tools to a system
design project – with relevance to your professional employment.
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1:19
In-Class Tool Applications
Class Warm-ups
Team Trials
Team Project
Unit 2
AAP Analysis: Football
ConOps: Objectives
Unit 3
Reality Factors: TSA
CURVE & Reality
Unit 4
RSA Analysis: Tassimo
Unit 5
RRS Analysis: Multiple
Unit 6
RSA Analysis: TWS
AAP
RRS Analysis: TWS
Unit 7
Unit 8
RSA Analysis
RRS Synthesis
ConOps: Activities
Integrity: TWS
Closure
Unit 9
Unit 10
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1:20
Course Roadmap
Have You Signed The Attendance Roster?
Fundamentals
Analysis
Session 1 – Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems
Session 2 – Problem Space and Solution Space
Session 3 – Response Types, Metrics, Values
Session 4 – Situational Analysis and Strategy Exercise
Tools
Session 5 – Architecture and Design Principles
Synthesis
Session 6 – Design Exercise and Strategy Refinement
Integration
Session 7 – Quality: Principles, Reality, Strategy
Session 8 – Operations: Closure and Integrity Management
Perspective
Session 9 – Culture and Proficiency Development
Session 10 – The Edge of Knowledge, Projects
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1:21
Change and Uncertainty
The Paris edition of the New York
Herald summed up Europe's opinion of
the Wright brothers in an editorial on
February 10, 1906: "The Wright have
flown or they have not flown. They
possess a machine or they do not
possess one. They are in fact either
fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's
easy to say, 'We have flown.'"
Some Examples of What’s Happening Now
(that weren’t dreamed of a short while ago)
File
The launch, as seen from the
International Space Station
On November 12, 1906, Alberto SantosDumont flew 220 meters (726 feet),
capturing the 1500 franc Aero-Club de
France prize from the Aero-Club for the
first 100-meter flight.
www.first-to-fly.com/History/Wright%20Story/prizepatrol.htm
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1:22
Opened 29 March 1920.
Entrance to
Croydon Aerodrome,
1920
Regular scheduled flights
were introduced,
Imperial Airways
airliner 'Hannibal'
flying over Croydon
Airport, early 1930s
90 Years Later … Las Cruces, New Mexico
Spaceport Completion targeted end of 2010
carrying passengers,
mail and freight
to Paris,
Amsterdam and
Rotterdam.
Virgin Galactic's
commercial space
operation
$40 million in deposits
collected by June 2009
Five spaceships ordered
to meet the demand
500th Ticket bought
March 2012
www.spaceportamerica.com/
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1:23
Why Agility Matters
CURVE
Internal and external environmental forces
that impact process and product as systems
Capriciousness: unanticipated system-environment change
(randomness among unknowable possibilities)
Uncertainty: kinetic and potential forces present in the system
(randomness among known possibilities with unknowable probabilities)
Risk: relevance of current system-dynamics understanding
(randomness among known possibilities with knowable probabilities)
Variation: temporal excursions on existing behavior attractor
(randomness among knowable variables and knowable variance ranges)
Evolution: experimentation and natural selection at work
(relatively gradual successive developments)
(CURVE: formerly known as UURVE, Capriciousness = Unpredictability)
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1:24
Course Knowledge Context
In The ‘90s we analyzed hundreds of real-world systems
that exhibited agility, asking how they did that, and
converged on fundamental structural patterns that fit facts.
We are now analyzing real-world processes
that exhibit agility, asking how they do that, and
converging on fundamental behavior patterns that fit facts.
No conjecture, no kinda good idea, no opinion.
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1:25
Agile System History Perspective
Agile manufacturing systems - 1991
Agile enterprise Systems - 1992
Agile CCRP C2 - 1996
Software development – 2001 (with predecessor work, e.g., Spiral, etc)
Military as agile enterprise - 2013
Systems engineering becomes a focus - 2015
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1:26
Webster Sets the Context
Agile: adjective.
1) quick and well coordinated in movement; nimble.
2) active, lively.
3) marked by an ability to think quickly; mentally acute or aware.
Agility: noun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Agile Manifesto authors are upset with the noun usage of Agile,
which refers to a family of software development procedures
that have little to do with agility, by their now-vocal reckoning.
Dave Thomas. 2014. Agile is dead (long live agility).
http://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to-kill-agile/
Andy Hunt. 2015. An Experiment: The GROWS Method.
www.infoq.com/articles/grows-method-experiment
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1:27
American Football is Agility in Action
Operational Environment
• Capriciousness (injury)
• Uncertainty (composition of opposing team on game day)
• Risk (impaired team-work day)
• Variation (weather)
• Evolution (team competencies)
Dynamic game situations require certain response capabilities, e.g.
• Creating a tailored game plan for each game
• Improving opponent-evaluation accuracy
• Migrating pre to post salary cap rule, and now concussion concerns
• Modifying game plan strategy, replacing Troy Polamalu (Steelers)
• Correcting on-field competitive mismatch in specific position
• Varying defense-offence competitive strength balance
• Expansion/contraction range of player-position depth of 2-4 minimum
• Reconfiguring mix of 11-on-field frequently
Performance quality is determined
by degree of engagement of every team member at every moment
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1:28
American Football
http://football.about.com/od/footballpositions/Football_Positions.htm
11 players on field per side
Offensive positions:
8 with some pairs
Defensive positions:
6 with many pairs
Special teams positions:
7 with some multiples
Adaptation is an immediate, appropriate, different response in functionality. This
can only occur if functional resources can be added, modified, or reconfigured
quickly. A good sports team has more players than it fields at any one time, so
that the coach can mix and match the players’ skill-sets according to the
opposition, the situation, and real-time developments.
Reconfiguring a sports team with different players during game time doesn’t
work, though, if players bring their own rules with them. The players all know the
rules of the game and they all know their team’s playbook. The coach exercises a
drag-and-drop, plug-and-play operational strategy enabled by an actively
managed team-system structure. Complex system behaviors arise from the
interactions of simple rules. Were this not the case, it would be impossible to
sustain complex behavior in the face of increased opportunities for failure.
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1:29
Architecture Pattern for USA Football
Drag-and-drop resources in a plug-and-play infrastructure
Resources
Defense
Players
Coaches
Trainers
Special Teams
Scouts
Medics/Therapists
TT--T
ZZZ---ZZZ
S---S
M---M
O O O O O O
Tak Grd Ctr Grd Tak Tnd
Infrastructure
O
Wide
Rec
O QB
O F/R Bk
O H/R Bk
O
Wide
Rec
C
Passive
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
OLB End Tak MLB Tak End OLB
X
CB
X
CB
X
Saf
X
Saf
C
Offensive Down
Sockets
Signals
Security
Safety
Service
Plays
Coaches, Owner, Scouts
Trainers, Coaches, Therapists
Virtually Everyone
QB, Def/Off Coaches
NFL and Owner
Resource mix evolution
Resource readiness
Situational awareness
Activity assembly
Infrastructure evolution
Active
Game Plans
OOO---OOO
XXX---XXX
C--CC
Integrity
Management
Offense Players
Defensive Down
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
End Ubk Ubk Ctr Ubk Ubk End
Z
Z
Wng
Wng
Z
Pro
Z
C
Pnt
Special Teams Punt
Positions
Play Book, QB Calls
Covert Communications
Protective Equipment
NFL Rules, Team Culture
Rules/Standards
(a concept example, not exhaustive)
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1:30
Introduction to Agile Systems
Agility defined
Origin and research history
Features and values
Reality and risk management
Confusions in the literature
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1:31
Cats Are the Icon of Agility
ISSUE
We agree that cats are agile. Why?
Aware. Nimble. Focused on value.
Agile
is more than
Rapid
But on a hot tin roof they're spastic. Why?
- Info overload.
- Lost awareness.
- Inability to create options.
Up a tree they're catatonic. Why?
- Paralyzed with fear.
- Lost awareness.
- Inability to create options.
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1:32
Another Issue
Agile System-Engineering
is an instance of
Agile-System Engineering
This Course is Not About
Agile Software Development
and Extreme Programming
but…they are examples
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1:33
Why Now?
Years Ago
2,500,000
40,000
4,000
500
0
Stone tools - humans live as apes
Great leap forward (Language-caused? art, houses, weapons, war)
Horse domesticated, plow invented, wheel invented
Water travel begins to homogenize humanity globally
Space exploration, nuclear physics, genetic engineering,
global communications, networked humanity, ……………
Genetically we last major-changed around 40,000 years ago
Knowledge, created and diffused by language,
has been driving human evolution ever since.
Knowledge
Explosion
From Jared Diamond's The Third Chimpanzee for general times and characteristics. The statement that we last genetically changed 40,000 years is my
interpretation of his writings. His conjecture was that the voice box was responsible for the great leap forward in human development, which provided the
uniquely human capability to then incorporate vowels into utterances, which led to a spoken language that could convey complexity and nuance, which led to
thought, and to thoughts that could be passed on to others. The emergence of a new form of evolving stuff.
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1:34
Why Now?
Knowledge
builds on
knowledge
The more
you have
the more
you get
The knee
of the curve
is passed
Nuclear physics
Personal computer
Semiconductors in everything
Space travel
Genetic engineering
Internet
Globalization
Drones & Robots
Nano-technology
Quantum computing?
Hydrogen economy?
Human-equivalent AI?
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Decisions
must be made
faster…
…and
implemented
immediately
Knowledge
Explosion
1:35
The Law of Accelerating Returns
"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't
experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress (at today's rate).
"Within a few decades … technological change so rapid and profound it
represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
Ray Kurzweil, 2001
A few of his many honors and awards...
2000
1999
1994
1993
1982
1982
Lemelson-MIT Prize. This $500,000 award is largest in U.S. in invention and innovation
National Medal of Technology, nation's highest honor in technology, President Clinton
Dickson Prize, Carnegie Mellon University’s top science prize
ACM Fellow Award, Association for Computing Machinery
Computer Science Award, President Reagan
Admitted to the Computer Industry Hall of Fame
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1:36
BREAK
Your Class web-page:
Support docs & links:
www.parshift.com/678/current.htm
www.parshift.com/678/support.htm
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1:37
Guest Speaker: Tom Hammes
File27-Hammes
File15-Hunter
File14-Hendrix
Technologies Converge and Power Diffuses - The Evolution of Small, Smart, Cheap Weapons
CATO Institute 9 March 2016, Video: www.cato.org/multimedia/events/new-technologies-war-will-they-change-way-we-fight-why-we-fight
Paper: T. X. Hammes, 27-Jan-2016, http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa786-updated.pdf
Lesson: Term or Master’s project possibility – agile ISR air & ground defense against large swarm rapid evolution
Various technological advances are about to make hundred-drone
swarms a reality, and a nightmare for today’s top-of-the-line weapons.
Rapid advances [are occurring] in robotics and artificial intelligence,
additive manufacturing and nanoexplosives, composite materials and
energy-reflecting coatings, and improved energy densities in gel fuels.
Taken together, these technologies mean that long-range, autonomous,
stealthy, precision weapons will soon be cheap and ubiquitous.
Even small numbers of intelligent, mobile IEDs would be a major
problem for U.S. forces — yet tech trends indicate we could face tens of
thousands of such drones on the battlefield.
We’re several years past the ability to 3D-print a drone in a single day; researchers are now
refining prototype systems that can print 25 to 100 times faster than that. A single small
facility with only 10 such printers will soon be able to produce 1,000 drones a day. These
will be autonomous weapons that can attack with precision to destroy vehicles, parked
aircraft, fuel, and ammunition stores.
A creative enemy might choose not to fight the F-35 in the air but instead send cheap
drones to hunt them at their air bases. These relatively inexpensive drones will rely on sheer
numbers. If an enemy prints 1,000 a day, he doesn’t care if 500 suffer in-flight failures. Nor
does he care you shoot down another 300 near your airfield. He still has 200 hunting a
couple of dozen F-35 revetments. If those are not available, the drones can autonomously
switch their aim points to radar antennae, fuel points, or ammunition sites.
Today, our own focus on improving the weapons of the past is leading us astray. As our
weapons become ever more exquisite, we can afford fewer and fewer.
Text from: T. X. Hammes, 19-Jan-2016, www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/01/cheap-drones-exquisite-weapons/125216/
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1:38
Knowledge Gets Around
Interconnected
Complexity
Art: B.Cheswick & H.Burch
Machines
People
Parts
Bots
IOT
AOL
BBN
ac.jp
att.net
UUNet
dla.mil
Netcom
sprint.net
cw.net (+MCI)
bellglobal.com
10 Networks
61,000 Routers
Speed:
Knowledge
And Response
Are Mismatched
12/98 Wired Magazine
Data mid-September ‘99
Color based on IP address
(old news)
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1:39
Inertia – The Bane of Agility
Ceasing prior activity
quickly and cleanly
is just as important as
starting new activity.
Bane: a cause of death,
destruction, ruin (Webster)
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1:40
AGILITY DEFINED
The Ability to Thrive
in a
Continuously Changing,
Unpredictable
Environment.
RECONFIGURABLE EVERYTHING
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1:41
Agile-Systems Research Focus
Problem:
- Technology and markets are changing faster than
the ability to employ/accommodate
- System-needs are uncertain and unpredictable
- Flexible system approaches inadequate when requirements change
- New approach needed that could extend usefulness/life of systems
Solution Search:
- Examined 100s of systems of various types
- Looked for systems that responded effectively
- Looked for metrics that defined effectively
- Looked for categories of response types
- Looked for principles that enabled response
Note: This research took place at the Agility Forum 1992-1996, and in subsequent independent research 1997-1999
Essays chronicle knowledge development at www.parshift.com/library.htm
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1:42
Defining Agility
Agility is effective response to opportunity and problem,
within mission ... always.
Not fast,
…just fast enough
An effective response is one that is:
timely (fast enough to deliver value),
affordable (at a cost that leaves room for an ROI),
predictable (can be counted on to meet expectations),
comprehensive (anything/everything within mission boundary).
An ineffective response is failure - there is zero tolerance for failure today.
You can think of Agility as Requisite Variety.
You can think of Agility as proactive Risk Management.
The trick is understanding the nature of agile-enabling concepts, and
how they can be applied to any type of system.
Domain Independent
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1:43
Agility deals with
“design-for-transformation”
so continuous improvement
is facilitated,
not just mandated.
Lean: Process Operation
Lean & Agile: Orthogonal Concerns
Agile: Process Transformation
Lean thinking demands continuous improvement … brute-force required
Agile thinking facilitates continuous improvement … in both dimensions
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1:44
Naty Rosado, http://natyrosado.com/
Class 1 Agile Systems are Reconfigurable
Useful Metaphors:
Plug-and-Play – Drag-and-Drop
Helen Wells, www.yessy.com/artists.html?l=w&p=6
Class 2 Agile Systems are Reconfiguring
Useful Metaphors:
Ecologies and Evolution
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1:45
Typical Enterprise Systems
Product Systems
Process Systems
Practice Systems
People Systems
- Knowledge management
- Machine tool
- Agile SW Development - Supply chain mgmnt
- Laptop computer
- Chemical production
- Project management - Company of departments
- IT network
- Purchasing
- Product development - Community of practice
- Legal contract
- Auto assembly plant
- Strategic planning
- Computer Program - System Engineering
- UAV swarm attack
- UAV
Rigid
Guided
- Market of customers
- Proposal development - Project team
- System architecting
Informed
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- Net centric warfare
Willful
1:46
www.datacenterknowledge.com/inside-the-box-container-video-tours/
www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2010/08/11/the-blackbox-lives-or-at-least-is-not-dead/
www.zdnet.com/blog/datacenter/suns-datacenter-container-forgotten-but-not-gone/398
File
case
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1:47
Value Proposition for Agility
Faster, lower cost system development?
An appealing argument, but only a side effect (at best).
The value proposition for agility is Risk Management.
Sustainability of process and product at risk.
============================
Why is incremental and iterative development useful?
Why are incremental retrospectives useful?
To learn about and mitigate risk affordably.
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1:48
New Risks from Enterprise Agility
But.......Agile business practices bring
new enterprise risks and vulnerabilities
Some typical current examples…
Internal data and processes are web accessible
All employees are web communicators
New technologies are employed faster
Network complexity increases
Partner interconnections are time critical
Business processes are outsourced
COTS employment has several problems
Multicultural staff – differing ethic norms
Just because you can doesn’t mean you should…turn on a dime
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1:49
File1
A Global Robotic Transportation System is Almost Here
John Robb, 10-Mar-2016, http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2016/03/robotic-transportation-.html
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRPK1rBl_rI&feature=player_embedded
The UK is testing convoys of driverless trucks on the M3 (Nevada, USA has licensed a self-driving rig for
highway use) and Rolls Royce is working on container ships that save 40% of the cost of crewed ships.
Short video to get a taste for how different a
robotic transportation network would feel.
However, there's a problem.
All of these robotic vehicles are largely disconnected or they are using their own proprietary means of
networking their activity. In order for robotic transportation to explode, it will need a simple protocol for
coordinating this network in a decentralized way. That's already underway, although with very little of the
importance I would allocate to it given the immensity of its potential impact. It appears to be on the right
track though. Early indications are that this standard will be as simple and decentralized as TCP/IP (any
extraneous detail on it, will slow its implementation and utility).
Once this scalable decentralized standard is developed, it will do for air, sea, land, and undersea
transportation what the Internet did for the movement of data and in about the same amount of time. The
change will be rapid as billions of robotic vehicles rapidly connect to this global grid providing things like
(these are consumer examples, but you can extrapolate some military applications based on them):
• Free car transportation. Order a self driving car on your cell phone, it's there in less than 5 minutes to
pick you up. It will likely be free. How so? The value of selling services to the person in the vehicle is
far greater than the cost of providing the service (electric self-driving fleet vehicle are very
inexpensive).
• Drone delivery. The local farmer delivers fresh eggs to you every day via drone delivery. Small
package delivery via drones that pick up and deliver small packages. 5 miles in ten minutes for $0.25 a
delivery. New industries explode by using this network as a platform.
• Perpetual nomads. People live in their self-driving vehicle (RV with a twist). They travel at night while
sleeping, jumping from place to place to get a charge, enjoy the locale, and get supplies.
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1:50
Some Term Project Ideas
(must be relevant to your professional employment)
Agile Response Capability for Rapid/Cheap/Evolving Drone Swarms
Agile Systems Integration Laboratory – Architecture and Operation
Service Oriented Architecture (eg, supporting Agile Enterprise)
Agile Aircraft Depot Maintenance HD&L Operations
Joint Tactical Radio System (eg, Interoperability)
Agile Enterprise Practices for QRC Response
An Agile Aircraft xxx System Utilizing COTS
Agile Systems-Engineering (eg, for QRC)
Agile Concepts for Outsourcing Support
Team WikiSpeed Modified for Work-Related Process
Applying Agile Systems Concepts in the Workplace
Agile System Integration, Verification, and Validation Process
An agile migration process from status quo to a more agile operation
Agile Development-Infrastructure for Other-Than-Software Projects
Should decide on a topic before Unit 6 – For Approval
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1:51
Some Past Term Projects
Quick Reliable Capable (QRC), Incorporated
Concept for Successful Outsourcing
Aircraft Modification Plant (Process System)
Adaptive UAV ISR
Strategic Innovations in Training
Agile Approach to IPTs
Quick Reaction Capability (QRC) Integrated Product Team (IPT) Organization
Rapidly configurable mission system architecture
John Boyd’s Fit with Agile RAP* Concepts
“Last Planner” approach to System Integration
Agile Intermediate Level Test Station Design
*RAP: Response Ability Principles
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1:52
Confusions
Definitions
… for system agility proliferate in the literature, with varying sub-characteristics
and sometimes with parallel system characteristics called out separately, such as
adaptability, robustness, flexibility, resilience and others. At core agility is a
capability that enables and facilitates effective response to unpredictable
situations – including all of these characteristics.
Agile Systems-Engineering and Agile-Systems Engineering
… both obtain agility by addressing uncertainty with the same common
fundamentals. Agile Systems-Engineering is a process that obtains its agility from
a design based on Agile-Systems Engineering fundamentals.
Agile Software Development
… as agile systems engineering is not a general systems engineering approach,
but rather a variety of many differing software-system engineering practices.
Nevertheless, agile software development practices rely on agile-system
engineering fundamentals as their core source of agility.
Lean and agile
… system/process concepts are different. The former is focused on efficient
system operation and the later is focused on efficient system transformation.
Neither encompasses the other, but there is some overlap of common bestpractice in each.
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1:54
Today's Agility Interest – Origin
1991 – SecDef funded project at Lehigh University to identify
next manufacturing competitive focus beyond Lean
– 13 companies participated full-time in 3-month workshop
– 2 vol report: 21st Century Manufacturing Enterprise Strategy
– Problem/opportunity defined (for manufacturing enterprises)
1992 – Agile Manufacturing Enterprise Forum founded at Lehigh,
funded by Texas Instruments and General Motors
– Purpose: Identify nature of Agile solution
– Method: Industry collaborative workshop groups
1994 –
–
–
–
–
DARPA/NSF establish $5 Million x 5 year funding
Name changed to Agility Forum (any kind of enterprise/system)
Research steering group and agenda established
250+ orgs, 1000+ participants in focused workshop groups
Conferences, papers, reference base, tools, reference model
1998 – Mission accomplished, Agility Forum dissolved
– Agility pursuit by industry and IT vendors entrenched
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1:55
Guest Speaker – Ray Kurzweil
File23
How technology's accelerating power will transform us
Prolific inventor and outrageous visionary Ray Kurzweil
explains in abundant, grounded detail why -- by the 2020s -- we
will have reverse-engineered the human brain, and nanobots
will be operating your consciousness. Kurzweil draws on years
of research to show the speed at which technology is evolving,
and projects forward into an almost unthinkable future to
outline the ways we'll use technology to augment our own
capabilities, forever blurring the lines between human and
machine.
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series
of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil
invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written
word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech
synthesizer, and many electronic instruments.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books,
which include The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near: When Humans
Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next
few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and
machine.
"Kurzweil's eclectic career and propensity for combining science with practical -- often
humanitarian -- applications have inspired comparisons with Thomas Edison."Time
Video and text above at: http://www.ted.com/index.php/speakers/view/id/42
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1:56
Guest Speaker: Andrew McAfee
File14
Are droids taking our jobs?
Filmed Jun 2012 • TEDxBoston 2012
Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars,
writing articles, translating -- jobs that once required a human. So
what will we humans do for work? Andrew McAfee walks through
recent labor data to say: We ain't seen nothing yet. But then he
steps back to look at big history, and comes up with a surprising
and even thrilling view of what comes next.
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses,
business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the
way companies perform, organize themselves, and compete. At a higher level, his work also
investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy, and the
workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business, at the MIT Sloan School
of Management. Hs books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik
Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
“Within [our lifetimes], we're going to transition into an economy that … doesn't need a lot
of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our
society faces.” (Andrew McAfee)
Video and text at: www.ted.com/talks/andrew_mcafee_are_droids_taking_our_jobs.html
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1:57
http://singularityhub.com/2013/01/22/robot-serves-up-340-hamburgers-per-hour/
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1:58
Guest Speaker: Andreas Raptopoulos
No roads? There’s a drone for that
File9.5
TEDGlobal2013, June 2013
A billion people in the world lack access to all-season
roads. Could the structure of the internet provide a model
for how to reach them? Andreas Raptopoulos of Matternet
thinks so. He introduces a new type of transportation
system that uses electric autonomous flying machines to
deliver medicine, food, goods and supplies wherever they
are needed.
Andreas Raptopoulos and his colleagues are building the flying internet of things,
using drones to carry essential goods to otherwise inaccessible areas.
It's a modern-day truism that, in regions where the phone company never
bothered to lay network cable, locals quickly adopted mobile phones -- and then
innovated mobile services that go far beyond what so-called developed countries
have. Could the same pattern hold true with roads?
Andreas Raptopoulos is hoping to find out with Matternet, a project that uses
swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver urgent items -- think emergency
and medical supplies -- to places where there are no driveable roads. Imagine a
sort of flying bucket brigade or relay race, where autonomous quadricopters pass
packages around a flexible network that behaves something like the internet -- but
for real goods.
Raptopoulos is a designer, inventor and entrepreneur. Prior to Matternet, he
founded FutureAcoustic, a music platform that adjusts to the listener's
environment.
Video and text at: www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there_s_a_drone_for_that.html
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1:59
Guest Speaker: Andreas Raptopoulos
Also see: http://matternet.us
File5.2
Drones for good
Video: http://poptech.org/people/andreas_raptopoulos
Poptech 2012, Camden, Maine, 18-20 October
Andreas Raptopoulos is the founder and CEO of
Matternet, building a network of unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) to transport medicine and goods in
places with poor road infrastructure. Matternet's
"drones for good" use small, electric UAVs to transport
packages weighing up to 2 kilos and containing items
like vaccines, medicines or blood samples, over
distances of 10 kilometers at a time. By creating a new
paradigm for transportation that leapfrogs roads,
Matternet is helping to revolutionize transportation in
both the developed and developing world.
Matternet Inc. is a startup based in Palo Alto, California.
The Matternet: A Flying Autonomous Delivery System For The Developing World
Where Matternet is going, it doesn’t need roads. But the people there need food
and medicine. And these drones can bring it to them.
www.fastcoexist.com/1678463/the-matternet-a-flying-autonomous-delivery-system-for-the-developing-world
The Matternet is being developed in three stages. In the first stage, the
Matternet team anticipates carrying loads of one to two kilograms. The team's
prototype (pictured above) can already do this, but its autonomous capabilities
have not yet been tested. During the second stage, the autonomous vehicles
will carry 200 kilograms, and automated solar-powered recharging stations will
be installed on the ground. In the third stage, the vehicles will be able to carry
up to 1,000 kilograms--so they will be able to transport both goods and people.
The prototype AAVs are quadcopters that have a range of 10 kilometers, but the
technology may change as the project advances.
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1:60
Guest Speaker: Dave Snowden
File8 .5
Introduction to the Cynefin Framework
David John Snowden (born April 1, 1954) is a Welsh academic,
consultant, and researcher in the field of knowledge
management. He is the founder and Chief Scientific Officer of
Cognitive Edge, a research network focusing on complexity
theory in sensemaking.
Snowden, a thought leader on the application of complexity
theory to organizations, tacit knowledge and an observer in the
way knowledge is used in organizations; has written articles
and scholarly works on leadership, knowledge management,
strategic thinking, strategic planning, conflict resolution, weak
signal detection, decision support, and organisational
development.
He holds an MBA from Middlesex University, and a
BA in Philosophy from Lancaster University; and
started his active career life with Data Sciences Ltd
(formerly Thorn EMI software), acquired by IBM in
1996. He was the Director of IBM's Institute for
Knowledge Management, and the founder of the
Cynefin Center for Organizational Complexity.
Snowden developed the Cynefin (Ken-ev-in)
framework, a practical application of complexity
theory to management science.
Video: http://cognitive-edge.com/library/more/video/introduction-to-the-cynefin-framework/
Text: Dave Snowden (Wikipedia)
70 minute full theory Video & Slides: www.infoq.com/presentations/Agile-Theory
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1:61
Guest Speaker – Ken Robinson
Schools Kill Creativity (20 min)
Sir Ken Robinson makes an entertaining and profoundly
moving case for creating an education system that
nurtures (rather than undermines) creativity.
Why don't we get the best out of people? Sir Ken
Robinson argues that it's because we've been educated
to become good workers, rather than creative thinkers.
Students with restless minds and bodies -- far from
being cultivated for their energy and curiosity -- are
ignored or even stigmatized, with terrible consequences.
"We are educating people out of their creativity," Robinson says. It's a message
with deep resonance. Robinson's TEDTalk has been distributed widely around the
Web since its release in June 2006. The most popular words framing blog posts
on his talk? "Everyone should watch this.”
A visionary cultural leader, Sir Ken led the British government's 1998 advisory
committee on creative and cultural education, a massive inquiry into the
significance of creativity in the educational system and the economy, and was
knighted in 2003 for his achievements.
His latest book, The Element: How Finding Your Passion Changes Everything, a
deep look at human creativity and education, was published in January 2009.
Must see: www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJAL21IE9fY&feature=related 60 minutes
Video and text above at: www.ted.com/talks/ken_robinson_says_schools_kill_creativity.html
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1:62
Guest Speaker – Thomas Barnett
The Pentagon's new map for war and peace (24 min)
In this bracingly honest and funny talk, international security
strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett outlines a post-Cold War
solution for the foundering US military: Break it in two. He
suggests the military re-form into two groups: a Leviathan
force, a small group of young and fierce soldiers capable of
swift and immediate victories; and an internationally supported
network of System Administrators, an older, wiser, more
diverse organization that actually has the diplomacy and power
it takes to build and maintain peace.
Thomas P.M. Barnett's bracing confidence and radical recommendations make him a
powerful force shaping the future of the US military.
In his book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Barnett
draws on a fascinating combination of economic, political and cultural factors to predict and
explain the nature of modern warfare. He presents concrete, world-changing strategies for
transforming the US military -- adrift in the aftermath of the Cold War and 9/11 -- into a twotiered power capable not only of winning battles, but of promoting and preserving
international peace.
Thomas has been a senior adviser to military and civilian leaders in a range of offices,
including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and
Special Operations Command. During the tumultuous period from November 2001 to June
2003, he advised the Pentagon on transforming military capabilities to meet future threats.
He led the five-year NewRuleSet.Project, which studied how globalization is transforming
warfare. The study found, among other things, that when a country's per-capita income rises
above ~$3,000, war becomes much less likely.
Barnett is unusually outspoken in a field cloaked in secrecy. His follow-up book is Blueprint
for Action: A Future Worth Creating. He also maintains a prolific blog, where he covers
current global events.
Video and text above at: http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/33
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1:63
Guest Speaker: Jurgen Appelo
Sep 28 2012 • QCon New York 2012
(File22.5)
Summary
Jurgen Appelo talks about his book
"Management 3.0: Leading Agile Developers,
Developing Agile Leaders", how Complexity
Science helps to understand Agile teams, and
much more.
Bio
Jurgen Appelo is a writer, speaker, trainer,
entrepreneur, illustrator, developer, manager,
and more. He writes a blog at www.noop.nl
about development management, software
engineering, business improvement, personal
development, and complexity theory. He
wrote "Management 3.0: Leading Agile
Developers, Developing Agile Leaders" and is
also a regular speaker at business seminars
and conferences.
Some Gems of Thought:
• Use a virus injected into the
social environment that gets
taken up by others.
• Anticipate – Adapt – Experiment
(last is ignored by a lot of agile
teams – no time is allowed)
• Managers: realize that you are
managing the system and not the
people – garden metaphor.
• [Agile is focused on the social
and human issues that enable
system success – and every
body has dogmatic/brandspecific best practices - but they
need enabled by an agile
architecture.]
• Tell a story – rather than provide
a vision and mission statement.
• Lean Startup movement has a
good focus on both small
(incremental) and large (pivot)
improvements.
• (there are more)
Video and audio at: www.infoq.com/interviews/appelo-management
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1:64
Learning Improves with Variety & Testing
Forget What You Know About Good Study Habits, Benedict Carey, New York Times, 6Sep2010,
www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/health/views/07mind.html?_r=1&src=ISMR_HP_LO_MST_FB
The findings can help anyone, from a fourth grader doing long division to a retiree taking on a new language. But they directly contradict much of the common wisdom about good study habits, and they have not
caught on.
For instance, instead of sticking to one study location, simply alternating the room where a person studies improves retention. So does studying distinct but related skills or concepts in one sitting, rather than
focusing intensely on a single thing.
“We have known these principles for some time, and it’s intriguing that schools don’t pick them up, or that people don’t learn them by trial and error,” said Robert A. Bjork, a psychologist at the University of
California, Los Angeles. “Instead, we walk around with all sorts of unexamined beliefs about what works that are mistaken.”
Take the notion that children have specific learning styles, that some are “visual learners” and others are auditory; some are “left-brain” students, others “right-brain.” In a recent review of the relevant research,
published in the journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest, a team of psychologists found almost zero support for such ideas. “The contrast between the enormous popularity of the learning-styles
approach within education and the lack of credible evidence for its utility is, in our opinion, striking and disturbing,” the researchers concluded.
Ditto for teaching styles, researchers say. Some excellent instructors caper in front of the blackboard like summer-theater Falstaffs; others are reserved to the point of shyness. “We have yet to identify the
common threads between teachers who create a constructive learning atmosphere,” said Daniel T. Willingham, a psychologist at the University of Virginia and author of the book “Why Don’t Students Like
School?”
But individual learning is another matter, and psychologists have discovered that some of the most hallowed advice on study habits is flat wrong. For instance, many study skills courses insist that students find
a specific place, a study room or a quiet corner of the library, to take their work. The research finds just the opposite. In one classic 1978 experiment, psychologists found that college students who studied a list
of 40 vocabulary words in two different rooms — one windowless and cluttered, the other modern, with a view on a courtyard — did far better on a test than students who studied the words twice, in the same
room. Later studies have confirmed the finding, for a variety of topics.
The brain makes subtle associations between what it is studying and the background sensations it has at the time, the authors say, regardless of whether those perceptions are conscious. It colors the terms of
the Versailles Treaty with the wasted fluorescent glow of the dorm study room, say; or the elements of the Marshall Plan with the jade-curtain shade of the willow tree in the backyard. Forcing the brain to make
multiple associations with the same material may, in effect, give that information more neural scaffolding.
“What we think is happening here is that, when the outside context is varied, the information is enriched, and this slows down forgetting,” said Dr. Bjork, the senior author of the two-room experiment.
Varying the type of material studied in a single sitting — alternating, for example, among vocabulary, reading and speaking in a new language — seems to leave a deeper impression on the brain than does
concentrating on just one skill at a time. Musicians have known this for years, and their practice sessions often include a mix of scales, musical pieces and rhythmic work. Many athletes, too, routinely mix their
workouts with strength, speed and skill drills.
The advantages of this approach to studying can be striking, in some topic areas. In a study recently posted online by the journal Applied Cognitive Psychology, Doug Rohrer and Kelli Taylor of the University of
South Florida taught a group of fourth graders four equations, each to calculate a different dimension of a prism. Half of the children learned by studying repeated examples of one equation, say, calculating the
number of prism faces when given the number of sides at the base, then moving on to the next type of calculation, studying repeated examples of that. The other half studied mixed problem sets, which included
examples all four types of calculations grouped together. Both groups solved sample problems along the way, as they studied. A day later, the researchers gave all of the students a test on the material,
presenting new problems of the same type. The children who had studied mixed sets did twice as well as the others, outscoring them 77 percent to 38 percent. The researchers have found the same in
experiments involving adults and younger children.
“When students see a list of problems, all of the same kind, they know the strategy to use before they even read the problem,” said Dr. Rohrer. “That’s like riding a bike with training wheels.” With mixed practice,
he added, “each problem is different from the last one, which means kids must learn how to choose the appropriate procedure — just like they had to do on the test.”
These findings extend well beyond math, even to aesthetic intuitive learning. In an experiment published last month in the journal Psychology and Aging, researchers found that college students and adults of
retirement age were better able to distinguish the painting styles of 12 unfamiliar artists after viewing mixed collections (assortments, including works from all 12) than after viewing a dozen works from one
artist, all together, then moving on to the next painter.
The finding undermines the common assumption that intensive immersion is the best way to really master a particular genre, or type of creative work, said Nate Kornell, a psychologist at Williams College and
the lead author of the study. “What seems to be happening in this case is that the brain is picking up deeper patterns when seeing assortments of paintings; it’s picking up what’s similar and what’s different
about them,” often subconsciously.
“With many students, it’s not like they can’t remember the material” when they move to a more advanced class. “It’s like they’ve never seen it before.” When the neural suitcase is packed carefully and gradually,
it holds its contents for far, far longer. An hour of study tonight, an hour on the weekend, another session a week from now: such so-called spacing improves later recall, without requiring students to put in more
overall study effort or pay more attention, dozens of studies have found.
No one knows for sure why. It may be that the brain, when it revisits material at a later time, has to relearn some of what it has absorbed before adding new stuff — and that that process is itself self-reinforcing.
“The idea is that forgetting is the friend of learning.” “When you forget something, it allows you to relearn, and do so effectively, the next time you see it.”
That’s one reason cognitive scientists see testing itself — or practice tests and quizzes — as a powerful tool of learning, rather than merely assessment. The process of retrieving an idea is not like pulling a book
from a shelf; it seems to fundamentally alter the way the information is subsequently stored, making it far more accessible in the future.
In one of his own experiments, Dr. Roediger and Jeffrey Karpicke, also of Washington University, had college students study science passages from a reading comprehension test, in short study periods. When
students studied the same material twice, in back-to-back sessions, they did very well on a test given immediately afterward, then began to forget the material. But if they studied the passage just once and did a
practice test in the second session, they did very well on one test two days later, and another given a week later. “Testing has such bad connotation, but this is one of the most powerful learning tools we have.”
Of course, one reason the thought of testing tightens people’s stomachs is that tests are so often hard. Paradoxically, it is just this difficulty that makes them such effective study tools, research suggests. The
harder it is to remember something, the harder it is to later forget. The more mental sweat it takes to dig it out, the more securely it will be subsequently anchored.
None of which is to suggest that these techniques — alternating study environments, mixing content, spacing study sessions, self-testing or all the above — will turn a grade-A slacker into a grade-A student.
Motivation matters. So do impressing friends, making the hockey team and finding the nerve to text the cute student in social studies.
“In lab experiments, you’re able to control for all factors except the one you’re studying,” said Dr. Willingham. “Not true in the classroom, in real life. All of these things are interacting at the same time.”
678: Good=Entertaining slides/videos (background), little tests, in-class project, 3 exercise types, 4&10-week project split. Maybe add test at session 2 start.
Tutorial: mix and cycle and exercise/test. Don’t do ½ day lecture and ½ day workshop in sequence, intermix the two.
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Metaphorical form-finding in art and design
File2.5
File6.5
www.environmentalgraffiti.com/featured/kinetic-balls-perfect-unison/20274, More on this Kinetic Sculpture visit ART+COM www.artcom.de/kinetik/
“For us the design process starts in a chaos of many different ideas that
are independent of each other, that are just floating around. Then from this
chaos, different shapes begin to emerge… that then gradually split into
several shapes – different kinds of ideas that compete with each other for
finding the right solution to a design challenge.” [ART+COM designer]
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Two Courses
Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises
Systems and Enterprises are composed of modular elements
Enterprises have (seemingly) willful elements (agents)
Systems have
Self organization is directed by people charged with that responsibility
Self organization emerges from interactions and relationships
Self-Organizing Agile Systems and Enterprises
Reason can only deal with limited parameters, small problems (note: sugar helps,
not Splenda)
Emotion can deal with complexity, lots of inputs, better for deciding what car to
buy
Get Book: Jonah Lher, Lare, How we decide
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Prepare them
We will look at patterns…to steal
We will see many things that are not the lesson – the patterns within are the
lesson
HGT – horizontal gene transfer, what it is and why its good – this is the first
pattern to know
You are master’s students, that means thinking beyond the rules, connecting the
dots, sensemaking
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Brain Patterns Learned with Direct Cause/Effect Links
sticky story
An operational story that “sticks” is part of a good operational model
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Did_the_monkey_banana_and_water_spray_experiment_ever_take_place
An experiment was recently conducted to demonstrate how belief systems are formed and
perpetuated using monkeys and their insatiable desire for bananas.
5 monkeys were put in a cage. A ladder was placed in the middle of the cage, with a bunch
of bananas located at the top.
Eventually, one of the monkeys would attempt to climb the ladder to get to the bananas.
Every time this happened, the other 4 monkeys are sprayed with cold water.
After some time, when one of the monkeys attempted to ascend the ladder, the other 4
monkeys would give him a good bashing to prevent him from climbing it.
This reaction went on even after the spraying of cold water was discontinued.
Then, one of the 5 monkeys was removed from the cage, and replaced with a new one who
had never witnessed the cold water spraying. He saw the bananas, and attempted to climb
the ladder to get to them.
The other 4 monkeys preventing him from getting to the bananas. He tried again, got
attacked once more, and after a few attempts gave up on trying to get the bananas.
Another one of the monkeys from the original group of 5 was removed from the cage, and
replaced with a new one. The pattern repeated, with the new monkey attempting to climb the
ladder, and the other monkeys punishing him for it. After a while, this 2nd new monkey gave
up too.
Interestingly, the 1st new monkey, although never having been sprayed with cold water, also
took part in the attack.
Replacing monkeys one at a time was repeated with a 3rd, 4th, and 5th new monkey.
Eventually none of the 5 monkeys which were in the cage had been sprayed with cold water.
Yet, no monkey ever tried to ascend the ladder and get the bananas, even though the cold
water had been put away and never used again.
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1:69
DARPA F6: Fractionated Space System Architecture
Reconfigurable and
Self Organizing Systems-of-Systems
www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/TTO/Programs/Systemf6/System_F6.aspx
Case
File 3:30
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http://fastrac.ae.utexas.edu/
March 22, 2011, a single FASTRAC satellite separated into two
smaller spacecraft that currently operate and communicate with
each other. The first time for such a small platform, about 60
lbs, and incredibly cheap, at $250,000.
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Value Proposition for Fractionated Space Architectures
File 3:30
Brown, Owen and Paul Eremenko. 2006. in Proceedings AIAA-2006-7506, Sep 19-21, San Jose CA.
www.darpa.mil/tto/programs/systemf6/Papers/AIAA-2006-7506.pdf
www.darpa.mil/tto/programs/systemf6/
(edited introductory excerpts)
The complexity of a spacecraft, as with any other engineering
system, is driven by the twin objectives of delivering a
particular capability and of doing so robustly in the face of
uncertainty. It is not enough to deliver a given capability – it
must be delivered with some degree of robustness in the face
Case
of various sources of risk or uncertainty.
In the case of space systems, uncertainty is both vast and diverse, and includes
technical uncertainties encompassing, for instance, the risk of component failure, a
software bug, a design flaw, a launch vehicle failure, or an erroneous command (if the
operator is loosely construed to be part of the spacecraft system), as well as environmental
uncertainties such as variations beyond some nominal range in the environmental
conditions during spacecraft operations, including temperature, radiation levels, space
object impact, etc.
Additionally, there are programmatic uncertainties to which a successful system must also
exhibit robustness. One example is the demand for the capability or service provided by the
spacecraft during its operational life. Demand fluctuations can occur due to a variety of
factors including a change in user constituency, competing providers of the same service,
or obsolescence. Another example is requirements uncertainty which, throughout the
development of a spacecraft, can necessitate design changes with associated cost,
schedule, and value penalties. And of course there is usually uncertainty in the available
funding for the development of a particular system. The funding stream, therefore, can
fluctuate in a quasi-random manner due to changes in political support, alternative
priorities, public perception of the program, and innumerable other factors.
Finally, there is fragility, an emergent characteristic of complex systems to exhibit
unmodeled failure modes, usually due to an unanticipated component interaction leading to
a catastrophic, albeit improbable, sequence of events.
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1:72
SDOE 675
SDOE 678
SDOE 679
Class
2
Class
1
675
Thinking
678
Engineering
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679
Architecting
SDOE 683
683
Designing
1:73
The Frontier of Systems Engineering...
...today seeks new levels of system capability and behavior,
and expects to find that benefit in higher forms of systems
that elude traditional control and creation concepts.
The certificate in Agile Systems and Enterprise integrates
four complimentary courses, defining
enterprise as a human activity system
agile systems as those responding effectively to
unpredicted situations, within mission
These common themes facilitate a study of agility across a
seemingly wide variety of interesting system types, with the
lines of difference blurred as each informs the other.
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1:74
Discussions
Risk Management
System's Reality Confrontation
Interpretations of Agility
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1:75
Brainstorm some
agile systems
that we know,
and that we need
Describe their
drag-and-drop – plug-and-play
nature
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1:76
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
Attribution License v.1.0: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/
When plotted on a logarithmic
graph, 15 lists of key events
in human history show
an exponential trend.
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Timely Questions for Agile Global Business
Most crucial development
from Y2K to March 2004?
...9/11 and the Iraq war?
Or ... India, China, and so many others
becoming part of the global supply
chain,
creating a middle-class explosion of
wealth in the world's two biggest
nations?
This "flattening" of the globe, requires
us to run faster in order to stay in
place.
Has the world gotten too small and
too fast for human beings and their
organizational/political systems to
adjust in a stable manner?
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1:78
Reference Definitions
(from the book)
ARa+Km Agility  Response ability + Knowledge management + Value-Based Decision Making
Agility as derived from the ability to apply and manage knowledge effectively - providing the
potential for an organization to thrive in a continuously changing, unpredictable environment.
RaCp+Rrs Response ability  Change proficiency + Reusable/reconfigurable/scalable structures
The dynamics and statics of agility; recognizing change proficiency (Cp) as a dynamic
characteristic manifested during a change activity, and Rrs as a design discipline evident in the
architectural structure of relationships among the things/people/resources involved in a change.
KmKpm+Clf Knowledge mgmnt  Knowledge portfolio mgmnt + Collaborative learning facilitation
Km has both a directed strategic component and a fostered grass roots component.
Cp Change proficiency is a dynamic competency that facilitates change
Proficiency is a multidimensional assessment of competency measured on a five-stage maturity
scale characterized by the specific metric focus, nature of the working knowledge, and
competency developed in four progressively difficult types of proactive and reactive change.
Rrs Reusable/reconfigurable/scalable structural relationships: static principles enabling change
Analysis of business organizations, procedures, and systems shows an architecture of reusable
elements reconfigurable in a scalable framework as an effective way to enable high adaptability.
Kpm Knowledge portfolio management
The directed identification, acquisition, diffusion, and renewal of knowledge that the organization
requires strategically.
Clf Collaborative learning facilitation
The cultural and infrastructural support for creating and maintaining collaborative learning
networks and collaborative learning events and activities.
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1:79
Quote From the Preface
Agility is the ability to both create and
respond to change in order to profit in a
turbulent business environment.
Rather than shrink from change, Agile
organizations harness or embrace change
by being better than competitors at
responding to changing conditions and by
creating change that competitors can’t
respond to adequately. However, companies
must determine what level of agility they
require to remain competitive, Agility is only
an advantage relative to competitors – a
copper mining company doesn’t need to be
as agile as a biotechnology firm.
Other aspects of agility are also important:
nimbleness or flexibility on the one hand,
and balance on the other. Agile
organizations are nimble (able to change
directions quickly) and flexible (able to see how things that worked last week may
not work as well next week).
An Agile organization also knows how to balance structure and flexibility. If
everything changes all the time, forward motion becomes problematic. Agile
organizations understand that balancing on the edge between order and chaos
determines success.
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Agile AUTOnomy Skateboard Architecture
Classic Case
Art: Boris Artzybasheff
GM after-market auto-body production.
High variety – small lot.
~500 different metal body assemblies
250 units average production lot size
230 average pieces per hour
28 minute average die change
$30 fender world market price
www.animationarchive.org/bio/2006/01/artzybasheff-boris.html
interchangeable bodies, drive-by-wire, plug-and-play
Fenders, Hoods, Lids, Sides, Doors
Operations include:
Press: die change, stamp
Assembly: bend/form, weld, glue
Maybe a hundred
new assemblies per year
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JIT Assembly Line Drag-and-Drop Operational Model
Response Ability Model
2-Page Operations Story
(mid-term 3-slide version)
Operational Story
RSA - JIT Assembly Lines
Assembly Lines Built Just In Time
By Rick Dove, Paradigm Shift International, e-mail: [email protected], 505-586-1536, Senior Fellow, Agility Forum
RRS - JIT Assembly Lines
+
ACP - JIT Assembly Lines
Look through Fred Mauck's eyes for a moment. You
work in a GM stamping plant outside of Pittsburgh that
specializes in after-model-year body parts. Your
principal customer is GM's Service Parts Organization.
They might order '73 Chevelle hoods quantity 50, '84
Chevy Impala right fenders quantity 100, or '89 Cutlass
Supreme right front doors quantity 300. Your plant
stamps the sheet metal and then assembles a deliverable
product. Small lots, high variety, hard-to-make-a-buck
stuff.
Every new part that the plant takes on came from a
production process at an OEM plant that occupied some
thousands of square feet on the average; and the part
was made with specialized equipment optimized for
high volume runs and custom built for that part
geometry. To stamp a new deck lid (trunk door) part
you bring in a new die set - maybe six or seven dies,
each the size of a full grown automobile, but weighing
considerably more. And you bring in assembly
equipment from an OEM line that
might consist of a
hemmer to fold
edges of the
A newly built
metal, perhaps a
pre-hemmer for a
custom assembly
two-stage process,
line for each and
dedicated welding
apparatus for
every small-batch
joining the
run, every time, just
inner lid to the
outer lid, adhesive
in time.
equipment for
applying mastic at
part-specific locations, piercer units for part-specific
holes, and automated custom material handling
equipment for moving work between process
workstations.
You got a call a few weeks ago that said your plant
will start making the Celebrity deck lids, and
production has to start in 21 days. Not too bad sometimes you only have four days. For new business
like this your job is to get the necessary assembly
equipment from the OEM plant, reconfigure the
equipment and process to fit your plant, and have
people ready to produce quality parts in the next three
weeks. Others are responsible for the die sets and
stamping end of the production process.
In the last 12 months this happened 300 times. In the
last five years you've recycled some 800,000 square feet
of floor space in OEM plants for new model
production. At this point you have assembly equipment
and process for some 1000 different parts - but no extra
floor space ever came with any of it.
high-variety production - in a business that is
traditionally based on high volume economics - and
you've learned to do it without the usual capital
budget. Eight years at this has evolved some pretty
unique techniques - and a pretty unique culture as
well.
You don't do this by yourself - you're a team
leader that may use almost anyone from anywhere
in the plant. At this point almost everyone is
qualified to help bring in new work - surviving
under these conditions has developed a can-do/letme-at-it attitude almost everywhere, and a shared
understanding of how to do it.
Eight years ago the plant went to a single job
classification in production, cross training everyone
on everything - a press operator one day might
change dies as well, the next day work in the
assembly area building hoods in the morning and
fenders in the afternoon - and the following day go
off to another plant to review a piece of equipment
or part for how to bring it back.
For this new business Jim Lesniewski wanted to
do the initial recon. He went on the last trip too,
experimenting with his video camera. Now he
thinks he's ready to do a perfect taping job. He got
the idea himself while trying to bring several jobs at
once back from another GM facility. This
environment encourages self initiative.
In addition to taping the operational assembly
process he added close-ups of key equipment pieces
this time. In the debrief review everyone saw the
same thing at the same time - there was almost no
debate over what to bring back and what to ignore and you got a jump on the equipment modifications
by seeing what was needed in advance. Some time
ago the value of having a good cross section
represented in these reviews became evident:
nobody gets surprised, everyone shares their
knowledge, and when the eqchine, two welding
robots, the welding fixtures, two press piercers, the
shuttles, the press welders, and the three automated
material handling fixtures. Basically bringing back
a foot print of 200 square feet from a process that
covered 2500 square feet. The rest will go to
salvage disposition while the hemmer goes to
"hemmer heaven" - that place in your plant where
some 200 different hemmers hang out until needed.
That you only need the hemmer is where a key
part of the plant's unique core competency comes to
play. Rather than build a growing variety of product
on some
Reusable Knowledge Patterns
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