Industry Introduction Challenges & Opportunities Industry Introduction 2673 2010 China’s Health Expenditure was 5.1% of the GDP World’s average was 6.4% 1860 China’s Healthcare Expenditure per person: 12%-13% of increase in future 5 years Developed Countries’ average was 8.1% 1643 1289 China ranked 149 in the world 394 11.45 78 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 15E Macro economy’s growth leads to income increase China’s Health Expenditure: 17.6% of average growth rate in 30 years Urbanization and aged population growth Changes of Disease Spectrum: Death rate increase in: Malignant Tumor, Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular diseases, Mental Disorders, and Nutrition metabolism and endocrine system diseases Government investment increase 14000 35% 12000 25.70% 26.10% 10000 20.20% 16.80% 14.50% 19.50% 22.40% 20% 16.50% 18.00% 15.10% 15.30% 13.20% 13.50% 11.80% 25% 20.52% 16.70% 6000 4000 25.60% 22.80% 21.40% 8000 30% 27.80% 28.60% 10.90% 14.60% 13.30% 15.64% 15% 13.66% 13.10% 12.91% 10.00% 10% 9.60% 2000 5% 0 0% 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 Insurance From WHO statistic yearbook and Tengwei 2013 semiannual summit Manufacturers: Chemicals: 3454 API: 1318 Chinese Medicine: 2577 Biotech: 202 VDR: 62 Chinese drug decoction pieces:1236 Sub Industry Output (B RMB) Yearonyear % API 298.5 15.80% 18.23% Chemicals 455.2 24.30% 27.79% Biotech 166.6 18.70% 10.17% Devices 140.1 20.80% 8.55% Materials 118.0 24.60% 7.20% Chinese Med 369.2 21.50% 22.54% Decoction Pieces 90.2 26.60% 5.51% Total Output Growth Rate 27.2% 30% 25.8% 24.8% 25% 21.3% 24.2% 20.0% 20% 18.7% 15% 15707 16378 2011 2012'1-11 10% 12349 5% 0% 5340 GDP 6718 8381 9946 Healthcare Industry Total Output 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 From WHO statistic yearbook and Tengwei 2013 semiannual summit Total Revenue(B RMB) Year-on-year growth rate 54.9% 35.4% 13.7% 32.6% 25.6% 23.2% 16.2% 84 40 62 106 140 158 157 Sub Industry Revenue (B RMB) Yearonyear % API 183.3 0.02% 13.29% Chemicals 434.2 26.11% 31.04% Biotech 180.9 7.01% 12.37% Devices 127.2 15.09% 9.23% Materials 86.7 31.13% 6.30% Chinese Med 324.4 16.97% 23.82% Decoction Pieces 53.7 16.69% 3.95% From WHO statistic yearbook and Tengwei 2013 semiannual summit From 2009-2013 China Healthcare market report and Industry analysis From 2009-2013 China Healthcare market report and Industry analysis Rank Rank Name Name Sales Income(10K RMB) 1 China Resources Medications Group Limited 1 China National Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 12456339 2 Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Holding Co 2 Shanghai Pharmaceutical (Group) Co. Ltd. 4880000 3 Shanghai Pharmaceutical (Group) Co. Ltd. 3 China Resources Medications Group Limited 4122375 4 Shiyao Group Co. Ltd. 4 Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 2479820 5 Yangtzejiang Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 5 Nanjing Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 2013727 Name Manufacturer % 1 Clopidogrel Sanofi 0.70% 2 Alprostadil Beijing Taide Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. 0.67% 3 Atorvastatin Liaoning Dalian Pfizer Inc. 0.59% 4 Moxifloxacin Bayer healthcare Co. Ltd. of Beijing 0.56% 5 Actovegin Liaoning Jinzhou Ahon Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 0.51% Name Manufacturer 1 Kangai injection Jilin Changbaishan Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 1.90% 2 Xiyanping injection Jiangxi Qingfeng Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 1.81% 3 Shuxuetong injection Mudanjiang Youbo Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 1.76% 4 Danhong injection Shandong Buchang Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd. 1.46% 5 Shenshifuzheng injection Guangdong Lizhu Group Limin Inc. 1.42% % SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Percentage China has 0.42 million retail drugstores. Guangdong, Sichuan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan possess 38.8% of the total. Total Number of Drugstores and growth rate 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Growth Rate of Local Community Use of Medicine (0.1Billion RMB) 34% of the total market 300 Growth Rate of Local Use of Medicine(0.1Billion RMB) 0. 5 44.6% 250 800 29.9% 0. 3 0. 25 88.7 0. 2 63.4 0. 15 1. 6 703 149.0% 700 9.5% 50 0. 1 0. 05 1. 4 0 600 535 500 1. 2 441 400 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 329 0. 8 254 300 200 0. 35 128.3 150 0. 45 0. 4 184 16830.9% 200 100 239 39.9% Growth Rate of County Level Use of Medicine (0.1Billion RMB) 0. 6 0. 4 102 29.5% 100 34.0% 21.3% 31.4% 0 66% of the total market 0. 2 464 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 500 328.4% 3. 5 3 351 400 2. 5 273 300 2 165.3 200 200.7 1. 5 1 100 38.6 0. 5 21.4% 0 36.0% 28.6% 32.2% 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public In 2011, there were 3.8 billion visits to local health institutions. It was 60.7% of the total visits. Hospitalization was 37.75 million held 25% of the total number. Local Community Health Centre’s average charge is 81.5 RMB County Hospital’s average is 49.5 RMB Local Health Institution Charges (RMB) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 86.9 87.2 84 82.8 81.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 39.5 42.5 2007 Local Community Health Centre Visits 34740.4 2007年 2009 2010 2011 County Hospital Visits 40950 8.27 8.77 8.74 8.66 2008年 2009年 2010年 2011年 7.59 26080.2 12712.4 2008 17247.3 2008年 2009年 诊疗人次(万次) Visits (10K) 2010年 2011年 2007年 诊疗人次(亿次) Visits (0.1B) SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Drugs Retailer Terminals: 230 billion RMB, 21.4% Local Healthcare Terminals 70.3 billion RMB, 6.5% 420K stores Local community Health Centre, 239, 2.2% County Hospitals, 464, 4.3% Hospital Terminals: 774.6 billion RMB, 72.1% 21979 Hospitals 2012 Drug market cap: 1075 billion Rural 1399, 13% Urban 6347, 59.1% RMB SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Challenges and Opportunities Recovery of macro economy Government investment growth Base propellant expansion and designated production The improvement of bidding mechanism Encourage innovation Promotion of the new version of GMP implementation Reformation of drug technology transfer examination Patent protection Supplements and devices development support Shrink of external demand Costs pressure Control of hospital costs and 0 extra fees Assessment of generic drugs quality’s consistency Control of drug price 2009 2012 307 500 •First-tier health institutes are required to equip with base propellant •Second-tier hospitals’ base propellant usage and sales should reach 40%-50% •Third-tier hospitals’ base propellant usage and sales should reach 25%-30% SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Main Point Changes 1. Improve drug quality evaluation system, figure out an efficient way to lower price. 2. Expand purchase area, put high Platform building Innovation of mechanism Lower price Quality and price oriented Drug bidding Purchasing contract and usage quality and price materials into purchasing list. 3. Centralize essential and nonessential drugs purchasing. SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Priority of making price standard for first generic drug The first 3 generic drugs Make price standard drugs have priority can make price Already on sales Innovation and generic 90% price of first generic drug Based on level of innovation, set the price After the first within 5 years,the 2nd and 3rd drug After 5 years More than 4 manufacturers 90% and 80% of the first generic drug First will have a higher margin than the second Government set the price Government set the price Market selection Patent protection SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public New round of GMP will bring more M&A Eliminated more than 2000 enterprises since last round of GMP New policies: 5071 5050 4682 4768 4881 4516 4553 4490 Encourage good enterprises produce more pharmaceutical productions 4706 ? 12 13 3731 Encourage enterprises get approved quickly Limit registration of enterprises which didn’t approve on time Make approval of producing requirement more strict Let the leverage of price be exerted adequately Give bonus for Implementation of centralized drug purchase 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 There are 597 enterprises get approval of new GMP New GMP pass rate is about 15% Support GMP project SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Growth rate of visit fee and hospitalization fee shouldn’t be higher than local growth rate of GDP (8%) Results will be recorded into annually audit Lower the purchasing costs Prepay visit fee; hospitalization fee should based on insurance payment type Growth Rate of hospitalization Fee Growth Rate of Visit Fee 12.6% 13.5% 10.7% 9.3% 9.5% 8.2% 6.2% 2008 2009 2010 2011 4.3% 2008 2009 2010 2011 SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Low quality Generics Regular Generics High quality Generics Better than original drug Same with the Only about the original drug consistency with the original drug 5 consistencies Ingredients, type, standard, safety, efficiency SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public Set a ceiling for drugs profit margin Cancel some foreign drugs’ individual price making policy Supervise costs and finished goods price margin Support high quality generics 300 250 200 31st average↓15% High price drugs↓20% 150 100 50 0 97-99 2000年 2001年 02-03 04-05 2006年 2007年 2010年 2011'3 2011'8 2012'3 2012'9 2013'2 年 年 年 SDFA Southern Healthcare Industry Research Public New medicines are focusing on prevention Aging population forces to change the structure of healthcare market Chronic diseases are becoming major factors Huge potential of new rural cooperative medical system
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