JOBS DIAGNOSTICS
STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS AND FINDINGS
Dino Merotto
April 18, 2016
STATUS OF COUNTRY JOBS DIAGNOSTICS
•
Completed analysis in 11 IDA countries:
• Afghanistan,
• Burkina Faso (supply-side only),
• Ghana,
• Kenya,
• Kyrgyz Republic,
• Moldova,
• Nigeria (supply side only)
• Rwanda,
• Sierra Leone,
• Tajikistan,
• Zambia
•
In the pipeline in 8 IDA countries:
• Bangladesh
• Bhutan
• Cameroon
• Cote D’Ivoire
• DRC
• Nepal
• Tanzania
• Uganda
STANDARD COMPONENTS OF JOBS DIAGNOSTICS
Macro Analysis of trends and prospects in Economic Transformation:
• Evolution of GDP, domestic demand (consumption) and external demand from net trade
(X-M), b/c demand for labor is a derived demand
• Demographic trends and projections
• Structural change: trends in sector employment and GDP value added per worker (labor
productivity)
Firm-level Analysis of the demand for labor:
• Firm dynamics of growth in output/sales, investment, labor productivity, TFP and how
these dynamics affect changes in employment and real wages.
• Entry, exit and age and employment size transitions
• Productivity, employment and wage regressions based on firm characteristics, firm
conditions (performance), and firm dynamics.
Household analysis of labor supply:
• Cross section and inter-temporal analysis of demographics, labor force participation,
employment, inactivity, education, occupations, wages, school-to-work transitions,
informality by gender.
• Regressions: employment (multinomial logit) probabilities based on individual
characteristics, and wage (Mincerian and Heckman)
Spatial Analysis:
• Mapping of firms, employment, populations and poverty (where possible)
• Analysis of determinants of firm location, individual migration
Policy and Institutional Assessment: trends and relative performance
JOBS DIAGNOSTICS: LESSONS FROM ANALYSIS TO DATE
Limited ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION leads to jobless growth, underemployment, or jobs limited to
certain sectors/locations
• E.g. Some countries have seen very rapid productivity growth in enclave industries, but without creating jobs
opportunities for the majority of workers (Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia).
• Outside of extractive industries, most new jobs in IDA countries came in services in urban centers, and
mostly in small scale and informal firms (Zambia, Kyrgyz, Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya).
• In the face of jobless growth and youth bulges, some countries export labor (Kyrgyz Republic, Kosovo,
Tajikistan, Moldova and Nepal).
Inclusive URBANIZATION, including secondary towns, can expand better jobs
• Expanding secondary towns can realize the benefits of agglomeration and scale economies, facilitate
backward linkages to agro-processing and can be more accessible for women. (Rwanda; Zambia)
• Spatial mismatches between where the poor live and where jobs are limits the inclusivity of cities (Tanzania)
Limited shift in QUALITY of firms: More but not better jobs
• Informality is high – but with low returns (Rwanda, Uganda, Nigeria). Linking smaller and informal
enterprises to larger, formal ones and to exporters, offers potential to raise productivity and encourage
formalization (Zambia).
• The shift of labor into retail services from agriculture creates one-off “static gains” in productivity from the
inter-sectoral shift, but over time average productivity in the employment absorbing service sector is falling
(Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique).
Labor mobility (infrastructure, skills, access to finance, housing, matching services) is needed to ensure people
can take advantage of new opportunities and fully utilize human capital’s potential
EVOLUTION IN OUR THINKING ABOUT JOBS DIAGNOSTICS:
ISSUES EMERGING FROM EXPERIENCE
Standardization
• in content (comprehensiveness) vs form, recognizing the need to mainstream jobs diagnostics in the
work of global practices: SCDs, CEMs, Poverty Assessments, policy notes, sector assessments.
• international comparability
• structured enquiry based on economic theory
• quality standards
• product recognition
Spatial analysis: connecting the dots in locations; labor mobility/migration; firm location.
Framing jobs problems and Benchmarking performance
• Based on country characteristics & conditions (country type)
• Help build a body of knowledge on normality
• Help establish `health charts’
Theory of change to guide Prioritization of jobs problems
• “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there”
• Importance of understanding economic transformations in jobs:
• Products/sectors/occupations (diversification)
• Locations (urbanization)
• From self-employment to large scale firm (`formalization’)
Diagnostics to Strategies: narrowing problem identification, health checks, symptoms and syndromes,
from theory of change to solutions, market failures and interventions
STANDARDIZING: OUR MACRO BIRDS-EYE VIEW OF
EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY
We trace the path of economic growth and job creation
across sectors, locations and formality, and benchmark
against similar countries and growth episodes
STANDARDIZING OUR DIAGNOSTICS OF LABOR SUPPLY
We identify who gets which jobs, and (where possible) their returns to work, covering
demography, participation, employment, inactivity, occupations, wages, education, transitions,
informality, all with standardized analysis
STANDARDIZING OUR DIAGNOSTICS OF DEMAND SIDE
We consider which firms
create jobs and grow, how
they grow, and estimate the
determinants of
employment, productivity
and average wages
EXTENDING SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDES
TO SPATIAL TECHNIQUES IN JOBS DIAGNOSTICS
The dots on this map of
Zambia are firms.
The shading is poverty
density (# of poor people
per km sq).
It shows clearly that firms
are highly concentrated in
the corridor running
through the center of the
country from Copperbelt
through Lusaka to
Livingstone.
These people can be
reached with jobs solutions
around integration in value
chains.
Next steps across countries, starting in East and Southern Africa:
• Econometric analysis of firm location and structural changes
• Spatial analysis of labor mobility
For the other areas where
firm density is low, other
solutions will be needed to
increase the mobility of
labor out into secondary
towns, or else to attract
firms to these towns.
STANDARDIZING & BENCHMARKING INSTITUTIONAL
ASSESSMENTS
We benchmark policy and institutional performance in jobs related areas
FRAMING THE COUNTRY’S JOBS CHALLENGE:
EG LOOKING AT CHARACTERISTICS & STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHICS
USING `JOBSTRUCTURES DEMOGRAPHY TOOL’
BENCHMARKING – JOBS & GROWTH PERFORMANCE
DECOMPOSITIONS WITHIN REGIONS
USING `JOBSTRUCTURES’ GLOBAL COMPARISON
BENCHMARKING BY REGION (SUB SAHARAN AFRICA)
Labor Productivity Decompositions for selected African
Countries' Growth in the 2000s
Uses I2D2 data
BENCHMARKING BY COUNTRY TYPE – EG LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO RESOURCE RICH AND RESOURCE
POOR COUNTRIES
Note the correlations in agricultural productivity and reallocation
Diagnostics to Strategies
1.
Getting to priority jobs problems
2.
Finding cross-cutting jobs solutions through knowledge and
country work
3.
Challenges with Implementation: Capacity building to
implement jobs strategies, self-diagnose problems,
implement policies and regulations. Support for data,
training, reforms plans in LICs.
For more information, visit
worldbank.org/jobsanddevelopment
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