-1June 2008
UK Centre for the Measurement of
Government Activity
Public Service Output, Input and Productivity:
Quantity Measure of Children’s Social Care Output
1.
Introduction
1.1
This article explains the measure of the output of children’s social
care which is currently used in the National Accounts, and
considers ways to extend the amount of children’s social care
services measured directly. Children’s social care expenditure in
the UK is estimated at around £6.1 billion in 2006-07.
1.2
It is part of a wider work programme on public service output,
input and productivity. Further articles on children’s social care
and other public services will follow later in the year.
Key Facts (UK)
In 2006-07, there were 81,300 looked after children in the UK,
of whom:
-
60,000 were in England
14,060 were in Scotland
4,640 were in Wales
2,600 were in Northern Ireland
This is an increase of 7.1 per cent compared with 2000-01
2
Context
2.1
This article forms part of a programme of work to measure output
of publicly funded children’s social care for the National Accounts,
and also to measure change in the productivity of children’s social
care. This follows from the Atkinson Review 1 . This article covers
only one component of productivity analysis: the quantity of output
(see figure 2.1).
Figure 2.1
Components of productivity
Quantity
Adjusted for
Output
Quality
Divided by
Productivity
Current price spending
Divided by
Inputs
Pay and price deflators
2.2
Box 2.1 sets out the range of children’s social care services, for
children in need. The services range from helping children in their
families to children being looked after in residential homes.
2.3
In the National Accounts, expenditure on children’s social care in
2006 accounted for 1.7 per cent of general government final
consumption expenditure, or 0.4 per cent of gross domestic
product. This article reports estimates of the quantity of children’s
social care output in the UK, from 2001 to 2007. It explains the
methods currently used in the National Accounts. These are partly
based on the number of days children are looked after (a legal
term – see Box 2.1) in four different residential settings. For
services for children in need, it has so far only been possible for
the National Accounts to assume that output rises in proportion to
spending (outputs equals inputs). The article presents a number of
improvements and extensions, including:
•
•
•
•
•
•
a revision due to a data inconsistency between the activity and
the expenditure data
updated data for the number of days children are looked after
updated cost weights
figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
estimates for 2007 based on financial year data for 2006-07
a possible extension to the current method by introducing
direct volume measures for some services for children in need
who are not looked after
1
Atkinson Review: Final report – Measurement of Government Output and Productivity for
the National Accounts (January 2005)
2
2.4
For some services for children in need who are not looked after,
further consideration of the best direct quantity measures is
needed. These services are complex and have undergone a series
of policy and legislative changes over recent years, making
measurement difficult due to the lack of consistency in the activity
and expenditure data. While these estimates are discussed in this
article, at this stage, they are only for discussion purposes.
2.5
The article shows the impact of the revisions and extensions to
output growth, discussing each change separately.
Overall,
quantity growth between 2001 and 2007 is now estimated at 22.9
per cent, using data covering England, Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland. Between 2001 and 2006, quantity growth using
the improved measure was 23.3 per cent, compared with 24.7 per
cent using National Accounts data, which uses England as a proxy
for the UK. Changes will be made to the National Accounts at the
earliest convenient stage, if and as the proposed improvements
pass the usual rigorous National Accounts scrutiny process.
2.6
Quantity figures are for the UK; where possible, these are based on
weighted individual estimates for England, Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland as children’s social care is a devolved
responsibility. Data are collected by the Department for Children,
School and Families (DCSF), and by the respective departments in
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
In some cases, UK
estimates are based on proxies where data by devolved
administration is incomplete. Please note that the values shown in
the charts and tables may not sum due to rounding.
2.7
A summary assessment of the quality of the data and methodology
underlying the quantity estimates will be made available on the
UKCeMGA website.
2.8
The rest of this article is set out as follows:
•
•
•
•
Section 3 explains how the quantity of publicly-funded
children’s social care is measured in the National Accounts
Section 4 uses new data from Scotland, Wales and Northern
Ireland to extend the current National Accounts measure across
the UK
Section 5 discusses a possible method for the direct
measurement of some components of other children’s social
care services in the UK
Section 6 summarises the paper and sets out the next steps
3
Box 2.1
Children’s social care in the UK
Children’s social care has an immediate effect on the lives of the children who are
assisted but the overall impact is much greater. Improvements in health, education and
emotional well-being affect their careers, their achievements and their ability to develop
relationships with others. Services to meet these children’s needs are in principle aimed
to support vulnerable children, help them fulfil their potential and enable them to live
independent adult lives.
In England and Wales, under the Children Act 1989, local authorities have a duty to
provide social care services to safeguard and promote the welfare of children within their
area who are in need. In terms of the meaning of the Act, a ‘child’ is any person under
the age of 18 years. In Scotland, the Children (Scotland) Act 1995 places similar duties
on local authorities. Children are defined by the Act to be in need if:
•
•
•
they are unlikely to achieve or maintain a reasonable standard of health or
development without the provision for them of services by a local authority
their health or development is likely to be significantly impaired without the
provision for them of such services, or
they are disabled
Children may be referred to Social Services on numerous grounds and referrals may
come from children and families making a direct request for assistance, other family
members, other agencies and the general public. Once a referral is made, local
authorities are responsible for assessing the care needs of the child or young person
referred and their family. The local authority will carry out an initial assessment. This
may lead to a further more in-depth assessment of both child and family, known as a
Core Assessment. This involves anyone who has responsibilities for the child and any
professional who knows the child well and can take up to 35 days to complete.
A decision is made, based on the assessment, as to whether the child and family need
help to make sure that the child is safe and well cared for. If help is required a package
of care is set up. This is usually in the form of support for the child and family at home.
Children supported at home are referred to as “children supported in their families and
independently” (CSFI). These children are sometimes referred to as ‘children in need who
are not looked after’. The type of services offered to these children include:
•
•
•
•
•
direct work with children including life story work, anger management, selfesteem, social skills and keeping safe
parenting classes including child development, behaviour management, health
promotion, promotion of educational attainment, attachment, speech and
communication, play and routines
supervised contact
support to other carers including relatives and foster carers
group work with young people covering issues such as drug/alcohol misuse;
sexuality; exploitation; identity and keeping safe
The most vulnerable children may be put in the care of the local authority and are
described as ‘looked after children’ (LAC). These children and young people are looked
after in a variety of settings. These include children’s homes, boarding schools, staying
with a foster family, with another responsible adult known to the family, and sometimes
with their own family. For safety reasons, of the child or other, it is sometimes necessary
for a child to stay in secure accommodation. It is of importance that children and young
people in care are cared for in family settings where possible and some children in care
are adopted, if unable to return to their own families.
When looked after children reach the age of 18, although the care order comes to an
end, they are still the responsibility of the local authority. Local authorities therefore
provide “leaving care services” which are available to young people until they reach the
age of 21 and in some cases up to the age of 24. Leaving care services offer practical
one to one support to young people along with help and advice on accommodation,
health, education and employment issues.
4
3.
Measuring
the
quantity
of
publicly-funded
children’s social care in the National Accounts
Figure 3.1
Components of output
Quantity
adjusted for
Output
Quality
3.1
National Accounts measure
3.1.1 In principle, the output of children’s social care should be
measured in a way which takes account of both the quantity and
quality of services. The current National Accounts measure does
not include specific measures of quality. The current measure is
calculated in two parts:
3.2
i.
a direct measure for looked after children (LAC) based on
the number of days children are looked after in England
ii.
an indirect measure for children in need but who are not
looked after, referred to as ‘other children’s social care
services’ in the remainder of this article
Direct measure for looked after children in England
3.2.1 The measure for looked after children is derived from the number
of days children are looked after in four different residential
settings in England:
•
•
•
•
Children’s homes
Secure welfare accommodation
Fostering services
Other looked after settings (which include children placed for
adoption or with family members)
3.2.2 Figure 3.2 shows that the number of days children in England are
looked after in residential settings increased by 6.7 per cent
between 2000-01 and 2005-06. These are the financial year
figures currently underlying the National Accounts.
5
Figure 3.2
Indices of the number of days children are looked after in England in
different residential settings (as recorded in the National Accounts)
England
2000-01=100
Fostering Services
Secure
Accommodation
(Welfare)
Children's Homes
Other LAC Settings
Total
100.0
102.8
106.1
110.4
110.4
110.4
100.0
119.4
134.3
125.4
140.3
110.4
100.0
96.8
96.0
93.9
90.7
94.5
100.0
101.3
98.4
95.5
96.0
103.4
100.0
101.7
103.1
104.9
104.7
106.7
13.6
15.0
0.1
0.1
2.8
2.6
4.8
5.0
21.2
22.7
2.0
2.0
-1.1
0.7
1.3
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
Child days, millions
2000-01
2006-07
Average annual
Per cent change,
2000-01 to 2005-06
Source: Office for National Statistics, DCSF
3.3
Revised direct measure for looked after children in England
3.3.1 Work for this article has identified that the activity data and
expenditure data used in the cost-weighted activity index in the
National Accounts are inconsistent, in that the expenditure data
were updated but not the activity data. The activity data have now
been updated. Further details of this are given in section 3.3.3,
and are also available in the sources documentation on the
UKCeMGA website. The revised indices for looked after children are
shown in figure 3.3:
Figure 3.3
Indices of the number of days children are looked after in England in
different residential settings (revised data)
England
2000-01=100
Fostering Services1
Secure
Accommodation
(Welfare)
Children's Homes
Other LAC Settings1
Total
2000-01
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2001-02
103.5
100.9
99.0
94.3
101.4
2002-03
103.7
80.2
92.4
96.3
100.8
2003-04
104.6
104.5
89.6
92.4
100.4
2004-05
104.7
123.8
90.3
94.5
100.9
2005-06
104.8
110.9
88.0
107.5
102.7
2006-07
Child days, millions
2000-01
101.3
98.0
81.7
109.22
99.6
15.5
0.1
3.4
3.6
22.6
15.7
0.1
2.8
3.92
22.5
2006-07
Average Annual
Per cent Change
2000-01 to 2005-06
0.9
2.1
-2.5
1.5
0.5
2000-01 to 2006-07
0.2
-0.3
-3.3
1.5
-0.1
1 Children placed for adoption are now included in Fostering Services according to the PSSEX1 classification; the
PSSEX1 return forms the basis of the revised data
2 Estimated
Source: Office for National Statistics, DCSF
3.3.2 The number of days children are looked after in children’s homes
fell by 18.3 per cent from 2000-01 to 2006-07, while the number
of children looked after in foster settings increased by 1.3 per cent.
6
The use of ‘other’ settings increased by 9.2 per cent; this includes
placements with family members. The number of days children are
looked after in secure accommodation is relatively small (though
this is the most expensive setting) and has not followed a
consistent pattern of change. In aggregate, these changes caused
total activity to increase by 2.7 per cent in total between 2000-01
and 2005-06, before falling by 3.1 per cent in 2006-07. The fall in
days spent in children’s homes and secure accommodation are
likely to reflect government policy, which aims to keep children in
family settings where possible.
3.3.3 The revision has identified that the National Accounts had been
using growth figures which were too high for the number of days in
children’s homes and secure accommodation, which are relatively
expensive, and too low a growth rate for days in other looked after
placement settings, which are relatively cheaper. Overall, this
means the National Accounts have been slightly over-estimating
growth of children’s social care output. In the period 2000-01 to
2005-06, from this factor alone, the revisions reduced annual
average growth by 0.8 percentage points.
3.4
Measuring the output of other children’s social care services
in England
3.4.1 Some types of service can be measured in quantifiable terms more
easily than others. While quantifiable measures can be found for
looked after children, it is more difficult to find quantifiable
measures for services for children in need who are not looked
after. For example, preventative work can be particularly hard to
quantify but it is very important in avoiding worse problems for the
child or family, often also leading to the need for more expensive
services, later. Effective interventions in children’s social care can
also play a part in avoiding costs for other public services (e.g.
criminal justice, drug treatment services) and in enabling troubled
children to play an effective role in society and the economy.
3.4.2 Recent government policy on children’s social care in England has
aimed to provide a wider preventative service. The expected
outcome of this would be for expenditure on services for children in
need who are not looked after to increase as a proportion of total
spending on children’s social care. This has been monitored
through the OFSTED Performance Assessment Framework
(formerly the framework of the Department of Health and latterly
the Commission of Social Care Inspection). In line with
expectations, there has been around a 3 per cent increase in the
proportion of current price expenditure on other children’s social
care services between 2000-01 and 2006-07, as shown in figure
3.4.
7
Figure 3.4
Current price expenditure on children’s social care in England, 2000-01
to 2006-07
England
£billions
Percentages
Other children's social
care services
proportions
LAC
Other children's
social care
services
2000-01
1.31
1.53
2.84
46
54
2001-02
1.42
1.68
3.10
46
54
2002-03
1.56
1.91
3.47
45
55
2003-04
1.76
2.21
3.97
44
56
2004-05
1.93
2.47
4.39
44
56
2005-06
1.93
2.64
4.57
42
58
2006-07
Cumulative growth,
2000-01 to 2006-07,
percentages
2.12
2.85
4.97
43
57
62.0
86.6
75.2
-
-
44
56
Average annual growth,
2000-01 to 2006-07,
percentages
8.4
11.0
TOTAL
9.8
LAC Proportions
Average
proportion,
2000-01 to
2006-07
Source: DCSF
3.4.3 In the National Accounts, the output for other children’s social care
services (i.e. services for those children in need who are not looked
after) is measured by assuming output increases in proportion to
expenditure after taking account of pay and procurement price
changes, referred to as “outputs equals inputs”. This is not ideal,
but continues to be necessary for part of children’s social care –
see box 3.1.
Box 3.1
UKCeMGA aims to measure directly the output of all public services, but
this is not currently possible for children’s social care. For other public
services an assumption has been made that the output from indirectly
measured spending grows at the same rate as output where there are
direct measures. This assumption is reasonable if the indirectly measured
fraction is small and also if there are grounds for supposing the types of
activity are broadly similar to those for which measures are available and
are affected by the same general drivers. For children’s social care, the
nature of services for children in need are different from those for looked
after children, even with the three extensions proposed in this paper.
With over 50 per cent of expenditure not matched to known activity data,
it is arguably better to continue to use deflated expenditure, as
‘output=input’. However, it is clear (figure 3.5) that the growth rate of
deflated expenditure is much higher than the growth in any of the directly
measured outputs. This suggests that the current hybrid method might
be overestimating true output from children’s social care. Further work will
be undertaken to improve the deflators currently used for those services
for which no direct measure is available.
3.4.4
Expenditure on other children’s social care services is deflated to
take account of pay and price increases to obtain the quantity
measure. The deflator is a composite index of a general local
authority pay index and a procurement index derived from
appropriate components of the RPI and PPI indices. Figure 3.5
shows current price expenditure on other children’s social care,
8
and the derived index of the quantity of other children’s social
care. Current price expenditure on these services grew, on
average, by 11.0 per cent annually between 2000-01 and 200607, while the quantity of other children’s social care services
increased on average by 7.1 per cent a year. Growth in the
quantity measure is lower as the effects of pay and price
increases have been removed to leave an indirect volume index
(where changes in activity are assumed to be equal to changes in
deflated expenditure).
Figure 3.5
Index of the quantity of other children’s social care services in
England, 2000-01 to 2006-07
£ billion
England
Current price expenditure
2000-01 = 100
Quantity index
2000-01
1.53
100.0
2001-02
1.68
106.3
2002-03
1.91
117.9
2003-04
2.21
130.8
2004-05
2.47
141.5
2005-06
2.64
146.8
2006-07
2.85
151.0
Average annual
change, 2000-01
to 2006-07,
percentages
11.0
7.1
Source: Office for National Statistics
3.5
Combined quantity measure for children’s social care output
in England
3.5.1 The children’s social care quantity index is a cost-weighted
aggregate of the number of days children are looked after in each
of the settings, combined with the measure of deflated expenditure
for other children’s social care services. That is, the components of
the direct output measures shown in Figures 3.2/3.3 are each
combined with the other children’s social care index in Figure 3.5.
Growth in each activity component is weighted by its proportion of
current price expenditure from the previous year; weighted growth
rates are then summed to produce an overall growth rate.2
3.5.2 The quantity of children’s social care (revised data) increased by
17.6 per cent between 2001 and 2007 (figure 3.6), or an average
of 2.7 per cent a year. Between 2001 and 2006, the period
spanned by previous National Accounts data, average annual
growth in the revised quantity measure stands at 3.5 per cent.
Figure 3.6 shows that the revisions of data on looked after children
placements reduce overall growth by an average 1.0 percentage
points a year between 2001 and 2006.
2
Aggregate indices are formed by weighting activity growth in each year, for each
component, by its relative share of total current price expenditure from the previous year (the
Laspeyres approach) and then summing across all components.
9
Figure 3.6
National Accounts quantity measure - England only, 2001-2007
2001=100
140.0
135.0
130.0
Quantity as in National
Accounts
125.0
Quantity (revised data)
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Average Annual
Growth to 2007
2007 (per cent)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
National Accounts quantity
100.0
105.4
112.1
117.7
121.7
124.7
-
Revised quantity
100.0
103.9
109.5
115.3
118.3
118.9
117.6
4.5
2.7
Source: Office for National Statistics
4
Incorporating data from the devolved
administrations in the measure of the quantity of
children’s social care
4.1.1 This section extends the measure to include data from Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland using the same methodology as used
in the National Accounts. For the National Accounts, there has so
far been an implicit assumption that output in Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland has changed at the same rate as output in
England. As for England, the measure will be considered in two
parts, the direct measure for looked after children and the indirect
measure for other children’s social care services.
4.2
Average Annual
Growth to 2006
(per cent)
Direct measure of looked after children in the UK
4.2.1 The direct measure for the UK uses the same types of information
as for England, i.e. the number of days children are looked after in
different residential settings. However, data for “other looked after
settings” is not available for Scotland, and hence an estimate for
this is not included in the direct measure.
4.2.2 Figure 4.1 shows that the number of days children are looked after
in different residential settings in the UK increased by 1.6 per cent
between 2000-01 and 2006-07. The overall growth in the number
of children looked after in different residential settings in the UK
10
3.5
masks some differences between types of settings and between the
four countries.
4.2.3 Figure 4.1 also shows that the number of days in foster placements
increased by 3.7 per cent between 2000-01 and 2006-07 and other
LAC placements increased by 10.0 per cent. These increases were
partially offset by a 15.6 per cent reduction in the number of child
days in children’s homes and a 1.8 per cent reduction in the
number of child days in secure accommodation.
4.2.4 The number of days children are looked after in Wales and
Scotland increased by 17.8 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively
between 2000-01 and 2006-07, mainly driven by an increase in the
number of days children are looked after in foster placements. In
Northern Ireland the number of days children are looked after
increased by 1.6 per cent between 2000-01 and 2006-07, with a
fall in the number of days children spent in foster care offset by
increases in the number of days children spent in other care
settings.
Indices of the number of days children are looked after in different
residential settings by country
Figure 4.1
United Kingdom
2000-01=100
By type of LAC Setting
Fostering
C.Homes
By country
Secure
Other LAC1
England
Scotland1
Wales
Northern
Ireland
United Kingdom
2000-01
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2001-02
103.1
99.0
105.2
95.8
101.4
100.8
102.2
100.5
101.3
2002-03
103.7
93.5
93.3
98.1
100.8
103.1
105.1
102.3
101.2
2003-04
104.9
91.4
105.2
94.8
100.4
106.5
108.9
101.8
101.3
2004-05
105.2
91.6
115.3
98.1
100.9
106.4
112.5
104.5
102.0
2005-06
106.2
90.4
108.4
109.1
102.7
113.4
115.0
105.7
104.2
2006-07
103.7
84.4
98.2
110.0
99.6
114.2
117.8
101.6
101.6
0.6
-2.8
-0.3
1.6
-0.1
2.2
2.8
0.3
0.3
2000-01
18.4
4.2
0.1
4.0
22.6
1.8
1.4
0.9
26.6
2006-07
19.1
3.5
0.1
4.4
22.5
2.0
1.7
0.9
27.0
Average annual change
2006-07 on 2000-01,
percentages
Child days, millions
1 Scottish Executive data not available for Other LAC
Source: DCSF, Welsh Assembly, Scottish Executive, DHSSPSNI
4.2.5 The proportion of children’s social care expenditure spent on looked
after children in 2006-07 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
ranged from 41 to 43 per cent. As data are not available for other
residential settings in Scotland, the proportion of total expenditure
that can be identified as having been spent on looked after children
is around 29 per cent, based on expenditure estimates for 200607. For the UK as a whole, the proportion of expenditure that can
be identified as being spent on looked after children is 41 per cent
in 2006-07.
4.3
Measuring other children’s social care services in the UK
4.3.1 As in section 3.4, expenditure on other children’s social care
services (around £3.0 billion in 2006-07) is deflated by the general
local authority pay index and the procurement index to obtain an
estimate of the output of other children’s social care services. It is
assumed that other children’s social care services in Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland are subject to the same pay and price
increases as in England. Figure 4.2 shows that in all four countries
the quantity of other children’s social care services increased
11
between 2000-01 and 2006-07. Growth in the UK was an annual
average of 7.8 per cent, a little higher than the 7.1 per cent annual
average growth in England
Average annual growth in deflated
expenditure for these services was highest in Scotland (11.9 per
cent) and Wales (11.1 per cent) and lowest in Northern Ireland
(5.9 per cent).
Figure 4.2
Indices of the quantity of other children’s social care services by
country
United Kingdom
2000-01=100
England
Scotland
2000-01
100.0
100.0
Wales
100.0
Northern Ireland
UK
100.0
100.0
2001-02
106.3
108.6
2002-03
117.9
156.3
111.7
97.4
106.6
132.2
109.5
2003-04
130.8
122.5
168.0
139.3
119.2
2004-05
134.9
141.5
181.9
153.1
128.2
146.0
2005-06
146.8
186.8
173.5
134.5
152.0
2006-07
Average annual
growth (per cent)
2000-01 to 2006-07
151.0
195.9
187.6
141.4
157.3
7.1
11.9
11.1
5.9
7.8
1
1 Estimated
Source: Office for National Statistics
4.4
Combined UK quantity measure for children’s social care
output
4.4.1 The combined children’s social care quantity index for the UK is
aggregated using the same process described in section 3.5.1
4.4.2 Figure 4.3 shows that, applying the National Accounts methodology
on a UK-wide basis, the quantity of children’s social care increased
by an average annual increase of 3.5 per cent between 2001 and
2007, in comparison to average annual growth of 2.7 per cent on
an England-only basis over the same period.
12
Figure 4.3
National Accounts quantity measure - UK-wide, 2001 to 2007
2001=100
130
125
UK index
120
England index
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Average
Annual
Growth to
2007 (per
cent)
England Index (Revised Data)
100.0
103.9
109.5
115.3
118.3
118.9
117.6
2.7
UK Wide Index
100.0
106.0
112.7
118.4
122.1
123.3
122.9
3.5
Source: Office for National Statistics
4.4.3 Growth in the UK-wide measure is higher than growth in the
England-only measure due to faster average annual quantity
growth in the devolved administrations (figure 4.4). Growth was
highest in Scotland (8.0 per cent), followed by Wales (6.1 per cent)
and Northern Ireland (4.5 per cent).
Figure 4.4
Indices of children’s social care quantity by country
United Kingdom
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2001=100
Average Annual
Growth (per cent)
United Kingdom
100
106.0
112.7
118.4
122.1
123.3
122.9
3.5
England
100
103.9
109.5
115.3
118.3
118.9
117.6
2.7
Scotland
100
122.7
139.5
144.4
151.4
155.4
158.9
8.0
Wales
100
110.8
117.2
121.7
131.6
138.4
142.4
6.1
Northern Ireland
100
105.7
113.3
119.2
124.5
126.7
130.4
4.5
Source: Office for National Statistics
4.4.4
Figure 4.5 shows the proportionate cost of each measured
component of children’s social care in 2001 and 2007. During
this period, the proportionate cost of looked after children
decreased in line with the expected effects of government policy
towards improving preventative services. The contribution of the
‘other services’, which continue to be measured as inputs equals
outputs, has increased by 4 per cent.
13
Figure 4.5
Proportionate contributions to the cost of children’s social care,
UK-wide National Accounts measure
Percentages
2001
2007
19%
21%
Fostering Services
Children''s Homes
Secure Accommodation
55%
23%
Other LAC
17%
59%
Other Services
1%
1%
2%
2%
Source: Office for National Statistics
4.4.5
Figure 4.6 shows the cost-weighted contributions to children’s
social care quantity growth between 2001 and 2007. It shows
that ‘other children’s social care services’ make up almost 26.8
per cent of the contribution to growth.
Total looked after
children’s services account for a negative contribution of 3.9 per
cent between 2001 and 2007, reflecting a reduction in the
number of days children are looked after in children’s homes,
which are relatively expensive compared with other looked after
children’s services.
Figure 4.6
Contributions to children’s social care quantity growth, UK-wide
National Accounts measure, 2001 to 2007
Percentages
Secure
Fostering Childrens homes accommodation
-0.2
-4.1
-0.1
Other LAC
settings
Other services
0.4
26.8
Total
22.9
Source: Office for National Statistics
5
Alternative direct measures of quantity of some of
the components of other children’s social care
services in the UK
5.1.1 DCSF (formerly DfES) commissioned research 3 from Loughborough
University into the measurement of children’s social care output
from 2001-02 to 2004-05, leading to a published report. The aim
of the research was to recommend a methodology for a robust
annual output measure that fully reflects the change in welfare to
individuals and society of children’s social care.
The report
recommended that the direct measure in the National Accounts for
children’s social care services be extended to include more
children’s social care services. This section presents the direct
components and discusses this recommendation.
3
Soper, J. Holmes, L. Hu, X and D’Souza, E. (2006) Valuing Changes in Welfare to
Individuals and Society Resulting from the Government’s Provision of Children’s Social
Services in England. Centre for Child and Family Research, Loughborough University.
14
5.1.2 An index that captures the full breadth of children’s social care
activities would include separate indicators for each of the different
services delivered.
It is not currently possible to produce
indicators for all children’s social care services. Based on the
Loughborough research, this section considers the addition to
direct output of three services currently measured indirectly in the
National Accounts under ‘other services’:
•
•
•
adoption services
leaving care services
Core Assessments
Details are given in Box 5.1
Box 5.1
Extended Measures:
Adoption services:
This measure relates to work to find prospective parents for looked
after children for whom adoption is a suitable outcome, and to support
parents. The indicator used is the number of children who become
adopted in a particular period. The measure is slightly lagged, since
preparatory activity occurs before adoption. This activity does not
overlap with the number of child days in adoptive placements and
therefore no ‘double counting’ takes place. This is because the
adoption process is concerned with recruitment and support, while the
number of days in the placement refers to the child pre-adoption.
Inclusion of this indicator was proposed by the Loughborough research
and some expenditure data are available. Activity is shown below in
figure 5.1. Note the omission of Northern Ireland as data are not
available for this service; expenditure for Northern Ireland has
therefore been deflated in line with other services.
Leaving care services:
This measure relates to the provision of support to young people as
they leave care. This is not covered by the current measure of output.
It is proposed that the extended measure includes an activity indicator
which covers the number of care leavers. The ‘number of children aged
16 and over who have ceased to be looked after and who meet the
definition of care leavers under the Children (Leaving Care) Act 2000’
is the activity indicator and ‘Leaving Care Services’ is used as the
appropriate expenditure data. Activity is shown in figure 5.2
Core Assessments:
This measure is the number of Core Assessments completed in
England. Assessment is concerned with which services, if any, should
be offered to children. Since it is different to the actual provision of
these services it is a different type of output. The relevant expenditure
is derived from a given unit-cost and is inflated to give subsequent
years. Activity is shown in figure 5.3
5.1.3 The Loughborough research also proposed to add in services for
children supported in families and independently (CSFI). Data for
this component were collected in the Children in Need Census (CiN)
in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2005. The census was put on hold for
several years to allow for development work but data will become
available again in the new CiN from 2009 onwards. It may be
possible to estimate the intervening years from that point onwards.
15
Figure 5.1
Indices of the number of adoptions by country
United Kingdom
2000-01=100
England
Scotland
2000-01
100.0
2001-02
111.6
2002-03
2
Wales
GB
100.0
100.0
100.0
82.3
113.0
107.9
115.5
100.0
152.2
114.9
2003-04
121.3
84.0
171.7
118.4
2004-05
121.3
93.8
172.5
119.7
2005-06
121.2
89.3
180.4
119.4
2006-07
107.5
95.5
163.0
108.1
Number of adoptions
2000-01
3070
468
138
3676
3300
447
225
3972
1.2
-0.8
8.5
1.3
2006-07
Average annual
growth,
percentages
1
1 Estimated
2 Northern Ireland data are not available for every year listed; growth is assumed the same as UK
Source: Office for National Statistics, DCSF, Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government,
DHSSPSNI
5.1.4 Figure 5.1 shows an overall increase of 8.1 per cent in the number
of children adopted in Great Britain from 2000-2001 to 2006-2007,
though there is variation between years and between countries.
The increase is likely to be related to the Adoption and Children Act
2002 in England that aims to increase the number of children
leaving care for adoption. However, the rate of growth in the
number of adoptions in England slowed down markedly in 2006-07.
5.1.5 The number of adoptions is cost-weighted using the expenditure on
adoption services.
This covers expenditure on social workers
seeking new parents and supporting existing adoptive parents.
This expenditure covers services to more children and families than
just those involved in adoption in any one year. There may be a
time lag in expenditure on finding new parents for a child and the
child being adopted. This therefore suggests that, in a given
period, the expenditure that could be used to cost weight does not
necessarily correspond to the level of activity.
5.1.6 Figure 5.2 shows that the total number of children leaving care
aged 16+ in the UK fell by 1.6 per cent between 2000-01 and
2006-7, with increases in the small numbers of children leaving
care in Wales and Northern Ireland being offset by the reductions
in both England and Scotland. While the number of children
leaving care between 2000-01 and 2006-07 decreased,
expenditure on children leaving care increased, in part due to the
requirements of the Children (Leaving Care) Act 2000 in England
(box 5.3). The Act includes the commitment to provide services
for those who previously left care. As above, this suggests that, in
a given period, the expenditure that could be used to cost weight
does not necessarily correspond to the level of activity.
16
Figure 5.2
Indices of the number of children aged 16+ who leave care, by
country
United Kingdom
2000-01=100
1
England
Scotland
Wales
N. Ireland
UK
2000-01
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2001-02
97.8
81.8
102.6
102.5
95.3
2002-03
99.1
82.5
88.9
105.1
95.8
2003-04
96.1
80.6
101.3
108.8
93.8
2004-05
93.0
76.4
108.1
111.3
91.1
2005-06
98.1
83.9
104.0
113.7
96.2
2006-07
98.3
96.0
101.3
116.2
98.4
2000-01
6,530
1,545
365
189
8,630
2006-07
6,420
1,483
370
220
8,493
Annual average change,
percentages
-0.3
-0.7
0.2
2.5
-0.3
Number of care leavers 16+
1
Includes some estimated data. Northern Ireland data are only available for 2002-03,
2003-04 and 2006-07; missing years are estimated using the geometric
mean growth rate.
Source: Office for National Statistics, DCSF, Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government, DHSSPSNI
Children (Leaving Care) Act 2000 in England
5.1.7
4
•
A duty on local authorities to assess and meet the needs
of young people aged 16 and 17 who are in care or care leavers
and to keep in touch with care leavers until they are at least 21
•
Every eligible young person in care should receive a comprehensive
pathway plan when they turn 16. This plan should map out a clear
route to independence.
•
Each young person should have a young person’s advisor who will
coordinate the provision of support and assistance to meet the
needs of the young person. Particular emphasis will be place on
helping the young person into education, training or employment
•
A financial regime for care leavers to end the confusing present
system and ensure they have comprehensive financial support
•
Continuing assistance for care leavers aged 18-21, especially with
education and employment. Assistance with education or training
continues to the end of the agreed programme, even if it takes
someone past the age of 21.
While the number of referrals to children’s social care departments
in England have decreased over the last five years (from 570,200
in 2002-03 to 545,000 in 2006-07) both the number of initial and
Core Assessments have increased (from 263,900 and 55,700
respectively in 2002-03 to 305,000 and 93,400 respectively in
2006-07). Core Assessment information is currently only available
Figure 5.3 shows that the number of Core
in England. 4
Assessments over the period 2000-01 to 2006-07 increased
substantially, by 69.9 per cent. OFSTED monitors the number of
http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000742/index.shtml
17
Core Assessments completed within 35 days of an initial
assessment, through the Performance Assessment Framework, and
this may have had an effect on the growth rate, either through a
true increase (if initial assessments were previously not followed
up) or through better recording.
Figure 5.3
Index of the number of Core Assessments conducted in England
England
2000-01=100
England
2000-01
100.0
2001-02
102.0
2002-03
101.3
2003-04
115.7
2004-05
134.8
2005-06
154.2
2006-07
169.9
No. of Core Assessments
2000-01
55000
2006-07
93400
Annual average
per cent change
9.2
Source: DCSF
5.2
Effect of alternative direct measure on the measurement of
other children’s social care services in the UK
5.2.1 The services for which the alternative direct measures have been
identified correspond to 9 per cent of expenditure on children’s
social care in 2005-06. By service, adoption accounted for 3 per
cent, leaving care services for 4 per cent and Core Assessments for
the remaining 2 per cent.
5.2.2 If these new measures were to be incorporated into the National
Accounts methodology, the proportion of expenditure for which
there are no direct output measures would be reduced from 59 per
cent to 50 per cent. The services for which there are no direct
measures include youth justice, Children Supported in Families and
Independently, commissioning placements and work done by social
workers to support looked after children in placements.
5.2.3 The expenditure on these other children’s social care services can
be deflated as in Section 3.4.
Figure 5.4 shows that other
children’s social care services, once expenditure covering the new
direct measures is removed, grew on average by 7.0 per cent a
year between 2000-01 and 2006-07 for the UK as a whole. This
compares with average annual growth of 7.8 per cent, shown in
Figure 4.2, for the National Accounts measure for the UK. By
country, the extended measure has the largest impact on average
annual growth in Wales (a reduction of 1.0 percentage points
between 2000-1 and 2006-07), but average annual growth in
England, Scotland and Northern Ireland is also reduced.
18
Figure 5.4
Indices of the quantity of other children’s social care services by
country (using extended direct output measure)
United Kingdom
2000-01=100
England
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
UK
2000-01
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2001-02
103.9
107.8
107.3
95.9
104.3
2002-03
115.0
160.1
125.0
107.4
120.1
2003-04
123.7
166.5
130.6
113.9
128.3
2004-05
133.9
182.7
144.2
123.4
139.3
2005-06
140.3
186.6
162.3
129.8
146.1
2006-07
Average Annual Growth
(per cent) 2000-01 to
2006-07
Previous measure
(figure 4.2)
142.4
194.6
177.6
136.5
149.7
7.1
11.9
11.1
5.9
7.8
6.1
11.7
10.0
5.3
7.0
Extended measure
Source: Office for National Statistics
5.2.4 While the direct measures for these services could be considered
for inclusion in the National Accounts, there are a number of
reasons why a cautious approach is required, in particular, the
recent legal and policy changes. These changes have affected the
data in ways that make it difficult to calculate underlying activity
growth. For example, the monitoring of the number of Core
Assessments as part of the Performance Assessment Framework
may have improved the recording of Core Assessments rather than
increased the actual number undertaken. Taking the number of
children leaving care, expenditure associated with this activity may
have increased due to the implementation of the Children (Leaving
Care) Act 2000. Expenditure in any particular year, however, is
not solely spent on children who leave care in that particular year,
but will cover previous care leavers under 21. Therefore, it may not
give a true reflection of the cost of care leavers in a given year.
5.2.5 Given these difficulties, it is not considered appropriate at this
stage to incorporate these figures into the UKCeMGA output
measure or the National Accounts. The Atkinson Review (2005)
noted that,
‘the identification of measurable outputs seems to be a particularly
difficult task in children’s social services. DfES (now DCSF) has
argued that the highly individualised nature of services provided to
children in need makes it impractical to construct simple
quantitative measures’.
While this has been borne out in UKCeMGA work so far, further
development work on direct measures will be undertaken when the
new data from the Children in Need Census becomes available.
19
6
Summary and Next Steps
6.1.1 This article presents the first stage of the development work on
children’s social care. Inputs and productivity will be addressed in
separate articles later this financial year.
ƒ
Firstly, the article revised the National Accounts direct
measure of children’s social care in England
ƒ
Secondly, it extended the National Accounts direct measure
to incorporate the devolved administrations
ƒ
Lastly, it outlined proposals to extend direct output
measurement to include some of the other children’s social
care services, as well as looked after children, by using
information about services for children leaving care, and
children who are adopted and Core Assessments (in England
only)
6.1.2
While the first two developments look to be clear
improvements, extending the direct measure to cover some
of the other children’s social care services needs further
consideration. As mentioned earlier, directly measuring
those services for children in need who are not looked after
is complex. These services have undergone a number of
policy and legislative changes over recent years making it
difficult to obtain consistent series for expenditure and
activity. The new CiN collection may help inform work on
extended direct measures.
6.1.3
Meanwhile, development work will be undertaken to
improve the deflators used to calculate those children’s
social care services for which there is no direct measure,
and for expenditure in other areas – this forms part of the
productivity estimates.
20