Development
Hypothesis or
Theory of Change
M&E Capacity Strengthening
Workshop, Maputo
19 and 20 September 2011
Arif Rashid, TOPS
Development Hypothesis or
Theory of Change
• ………….Is a systematic exploration of the links
between activities, outcomes, goal and the
context.
Slide # 1
DH or TC is a “Process and a “Product”
• A structured thinking PROCESS that allows
groups to turn their theories about what needs
to change and why into a “causal pathway”.
• A PRODUCT that illustrates the results of the
change process.
Slide # 2
What is a “Causal Pathway”?
• A step-by-step backwards mapping process through
which a group determines ALL the preconditions
necessary to reach an ultimate goal. In USAID
terminology this is called Development Hypothesis
(ADS 201)
Low Per Capita Income
Low HH Income
HH members
have low level of
skills
Limited
employment
opportunities
High dependency ratio
Limited access to
financial
resources
Large
family
size
Single
income
earner in
the HH
Slide # 3
Elements of a Theory of Change/
Development Hypothesis
• A pathway of change that shows the
connections between longterm, intermediate
and early outcomes
• Statements that explain how the intervention
fits along the pathway of change
• Justifications that explain why the initiative
expects change to occur
Slide # 4
Why We Need One?
•
•
•
•
•
Participatory process
Creates realistic program expectations
Create a safe place to be reflective
Can improve monitoring and evaluation
Improves understanding about the program
logic
Slide # 5
Uses
• Decision making: Whether to carry out an
activity
• Align of program activities with goals
• Monitor the results chain
• Evaluation
Slide # 6
Other Advantages
• Gaps between steps and outcomes become
evident
• Can refine project strategies to achieve the goal
• Can revise the assumptions
• Evaluations based on a theory carry more
weight
• Improves transparency
Slide # 7
The Pathway of Change
Influenced by our
thinking
Outcome
Intervention
Output
Intervention
Output
Intervention
Output
Intervention
Higher level
outcome
Outcome
Long term goal
Higher level
outcome
Outcome
Underlying conditions
Output
Outcome
Learn from our
actions
Refine our
thinking
Slide # 8
Development Hypothesis “Steps”
• Determine the Goal
• Develop the Outcomes map
• Identify which of the outcomes
your project will address
• Identify activities that will help
achieve the outcomes
Slide # 9
Causal Pathway to Results
Framework
Slide # 10
Approximate correlation between RF and
indicator levels
Overarching
Goal
Impact Indicators
Higher level
Outcome Indicators
Low – medium level
Outcome Indicators
Outputs
Processes
Inputs
Strategic Objective 1
Intermediate
Result 1.1
Activities:
a)
b)
c)
Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation
Intermediate
Result 1.2
Activities:
a)
b)
c)
Strategic Objective 2
Intermediate
Result 2.1
Activities:
a)
b)
c)
Slide # 11
Basic Purposes of Results Framework
PROJECT
Overarching
DESIGN/
Goal
PLANNING
Impact Indicators
Higher level
Outcome Indicators
Low – medium level
Outcome Indicators
Strategic Objective 1
Intermediate
Result 1.1
Activities:
Outputs
a)
Processes
b)
Inputs COMMUNICATION
c)
Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation
Intermediate
Result 1.2
Activities:
a)
b)
c)
Strategic Objective 2
Intermediate
Result 2.1
Activities:
MONITORING
a)
b) &
c)
EVALUATION
Slide # 11
How will you know if you have succeeded
• Identify indicators for each outcome you want
to address.
Example:
• Outcome: Improved HH food production
practices adopted and utilized
– Change in yield (+)
– Change in farm size (+)
– Change in cropping intensity (+)
Slide # 12
What must be determined for each
indicator?
•
•
•
•
Who will be impacted?
How many will be impacted?
How much will it change?
When will it change by?
Slide # 13
How will you measure the indicator
• Determine:
– What measurement tool to use?
– When to measure?
– Who will do the measurement?
Slide # 14
Design Interventions
• Determine the interventions (actions,
strategies) to be used to achieve identified
outcomes. What will be done, by who, how, and
when?
• Test your assumptions (Will these actions really
work? Do your organization have the capacity to
implement them? )
Slide # 15
Monitoring at every level helps pinpoint
where a barrier may exist
Goal
Families had to
eat the seeds during
the hungry months
 Household
incomes remained
unchanged
Only 5 of 50
households produced
the new crop.
1 bag of seed and 5 bags
of fertilizer distributed to
50 households;
50 households trained in
cultivation of new crop.
Adapted from FANTA 2 presentation
IR
Activities
(Inputs)

SO




Poverty
reduced
Farm incomes
increased
Production of nontraditional crops increased
We train farmers from 50 households
to use new seeds, and
We distribute seeds and fertilizer
Slide # 16
This presentation was made
possible by the generous support
of the American people through
the United States Agency for
International Development
(USAID). The contents are the
responsibility of Save the Children
and do not necessarily reflect the
views of USAID or the United
States Government.