Using Complexity to suggest a new framework to
deal with crises in international politics
By
Kai Lehmann
A Project to be submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy in Politics and International
Relations
The University of Liverpool
March 2009
Abstract
The terrorist attacks of September 11th have generally been seen as world-changing events
that represented a new era.1 Yet, the response to these attacks in the sphere of foreign policy
has been traditional. Decision-making power centralised around the leader of the respective
Executives and a clear, seemingly unambiguous policy-response (the War against Terrorism)
was developed. This war would not end until ‘every terrorist group of global reach has been
found, stopped and defeated’.2 The policy and the process through which it was developed
followed a traditional ‘orderly framework’.3 However, almost 8 years on, terrorism has not
been defeated. In fact, there are now more terrorist attacks globally than there were in 2001.4
Here it will be argued that, whilst the attacks of 9/11 were unique, they did not represent the
beginning of a new era. Rather, this crisis, just like others before and since, are Complex
Adaptive Systems that develop through a naturally occurring process of self-organisation.5
The key characteristics of such Complex Adaptive Systems are their numerous internal
elements, their emergence, their sensitivity to initial conditions, their irreversibility, bounded
nature and openness to their environment, their partial reducibility and partial predictability.
Using the foreign policy responses of the United States, United Kingdom and Germany to
9/11 as case studies, this work re-conceptualises foreign policy crises as such processes of
self-organisation and argues that policy processes have to encourage and enhance such a
process in order to be able to respond to such crises more coherently and effectively. A
coherent process of self organisation depends on the presence of Containers, significant
differences and Exchanges.6 With such a process, many of the mistakes made during the War
on Terrorism could have been avoided and some real, if uncertain, progress could be made in
responding to unexpected events within international politics.
Objectives
1. Re-conceptualise crises in international politics as Complex Adaptive Systems which
are shaped through an on-going process of self-organisation.
2. Re-conceptualise decision-making processes in response to such crises as processes of
self-organisation.
3. Making proposals on the restructuring of such processes in order to permit such a
process of self-organisation with the aim of achieving coherent patterns within
Complex Adaptive Systems.
Hypothesis
Crises in international politics require pluralistic responses and a de-centralised policy process
that take into account the complex nature of the problems encountered. Purely orderly or
disorderly responses to complex problems will be counterproductive and dysfunctional.
1
See Woodward (2002), Seldon (2007)
Bush (2001)
3
Or, as Geyer and Mackintosh (2005) put it, a ’Newtonian framework’.
4
See, for instance, Department of State (2007)
5
For a detailed discussion of the term, see Dooley (1997)
6
See Eoyang (2001)
2
Key terms
Coherence: The state of the Complex Adaptive System in which the parts fit together to
establish system-wide patterns. It is a state of a system in which
 Meaning is shared amongst agents
 Internal tensions are reduced
 Actions of agents and sub-systems are aligned with system-wide intentionality
 Patterns are repeated across scales and in different parts of the system
 A minimum amount of energy of the system is dissipated through internal interaction
 Parts of the system function in complementary ways
Complex Adaptive Systems: A collection of semi-autonomous agents whose interactions
generate system wide patterns. Complex Adaptive Systems are made up by numerous internal
elements and characterised by emergence, sensitivity to initial conditions, irreversibility,
bounded in nature, openness to their environment, partially reducible and, at most, partially
predictable.
Container: One of the three essential conditions for any process of self-organisation in
human systems. A container is any bounding condition that distinguishes the system from its
environment.
Crisis: A perceived turning point in relationships between actors or between actors and their
environment.
Newtonian Orderly Framework: A framework based on the belief that all natural, physical
and social phenomena were ultimately reducible to their constituent parts, that processes were
deterministic and that therefore future development was predictable.
Self-organisation: A process by which internal dynamics of a system generate system-wide
patterns.
Significant difference: One of the three essential conditions for any process of selforganisation in human systems. It represents a distinction within a human system which
establishes a potential tension which, in turn, allows for the possibility of change.
Transforming exchanges: One of the three essential conditions for any process of selforganisation in human systems. Exchanges here represent the transfer of information,
resources or energy between or among agents of a Complex Adaptive System that results in
changes within the agents and/or the system wide patterns.
Theoretical Approach
The approach used for the intended re-interpretation will be Complexity based.7 Specifically
in relation to this research, Complexity will be used to address questions of
Applicability of Complexity approach to...
Key points
Political discourse
Awareness of sensitivity of terms of
explanations to local conditions. Therefore
multiple, and potentially changing,
explanations and interpretations of particular
events. Interplay of fragmentation and
holism. Often this means a lack of
parsimony.
Political structures are the result of a process
of self-organisation.
Political structures influence, and are
influenced by, the political processes that
occur within these structures as well as by
the interaction with other political structures.
As such, structures need to be flexible and
adaptable. Their process of self-organisation
is continuous and has no end-point or fixed
border.
Political processes influence, and are
influenced by, the political structures within
which they take place. Processes need to be
able to respond to changes within the
structure. They also need to be able to
provide feedback-loops in order to allow for
adjustments. These feedback loops need to
be able to inform global patterns (rules),
local interactions and the interactions
between the two.
Particular events represent change but not
rupture or discontinuity since they are the
result of a process of self-organisation, i.e.
the interplay of semi-autonomous agents
within and between several interlocking
Complex Adaptive Systems across numerous
levels. Local interactions are crucial to
explaining such events.
Political structures
Political processes
Temporal events
7
For a general introduction to Complexity, see Doolyey (1997) or Coveney & Highfield (1995). For an
introduction of Complexity to International Relations, see Harrison (2006)
Methodology
This work represents a qualitative study of elite foreign policy decision-making process in
response to the events of September 11th in the United States, the United Kingdom and
Germany. The material for this study was obtained through:
 a literature Review
 an analysis of government documents already available on the public record
 semi-structured elite interviews.
In all, over 30 people were interviewed for this research.
Preliminary conclusions
Specific to the events of September 11th
a)
-
-
-
b)
-
-
The events of September 11th were the result of a process of self-organisation.
The War on Terrorism is a Complex Adaptive System, with numerous internal
elements, whose development is sensitive to initial conditions, partially reducible, and
unpredictable in the long-term.
Of the three case study countries, neither the United States, nor the United Kingdom
was able to adjust their policy decision-making processes to the fact that they were
confronting a Complex Adaptive System. The process remained centralised in the
hope of controlling the outcome of any process of self-organisation
In Germany, the decision-making process de-centralised quickly after the events of
9/11, allowing for the emergence of a balanced process of self-organisation based on
the existence of Containers, significant differences and transforming exchanges. As a
result, the German government correctly predicted and avoided many of the problems
that have befallen the War on Terrorism
Generally to international political crises
International political crises do not represent breaks with the past but are the result of
particular processes of self-organisation
The exact origins and outcomes of crises are unknowable and unpredictable. They may
vary across time and space, depending on local micro-processes often unfathomable to
the observer
Those decision-making processes that are most flexible and adaptable to changing
circumstances are most likely to achieve coherence in their response to particular
political events.
Areas for further research
a) In the area of International Relations Theory
- Adjust the language of International Relations Theory to the insights offered by the
Complexity approach
- Develop a Complexity framework for the study of International Relations
b) In the area of foreign policy-making
- Designing and implementing foreign policy processes that allow for a process of selforganisation which allows for the emergence of coherent policy-making patterns
across time and space
References
Complexity
Peter Coveney & Roger Highfield (1995), Frontiers of Complexity: the search for order in a
chaotic world, (London: Faber and Faber)
Kevin Dooley, (1997). "A complex adaptive systems model of organization change."
Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and the Life Sciences, 1: 69-97.
Glenda Eoyang (2001), Conditions for Self-Organizing in Human Systems, Unpublished
Doctoral Dissertation, (The Union Institute and University)
Robert Geyer & Andrew Mackintosh with Kai Lehmann (2005), Integrating UK and
European Social Policy – The Complexity of Europeanisation, (Oxford: Radcliffe Publishing)
Neil E. Harrison (ed) (2006), Complexity in World Politics: Concepts and Methods of a new
Paradigm, (Albany: State University of New York Press)
September 11th and Terrorism
Anthony Seldon (2007), Blair Unbound, (London: Simon & Schuster)
Department of State (2008), Country Reports on Terrorism 2007, (Washington, D.C.: Office
of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, April 2008)
Bob Woodward (2003), Bush at War, (London: Pocket Books)