Canada Consumer Confidence Holds at Almost 4-Year High on Stocks - Businessweek
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Canada Consumer Confidence Holds
at Almost 4-Year High on Stocks
By Theophilos Argitis
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May 05, 2014
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Canadian consumer confidence remains at almost the highest in four years amid a
buoyant equity market and signs of a strengthening economy.
The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index (SPTSX) measured 59.6 in the week
ended May 2, little changed from the previous reading of 60.2 that was the highest
since 2010. The index is averaging 58.4 this year versus 57.3 last year.
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Canada’s primary stock gauge, the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index,
capped a 10th straight month of gains in April and rose last week to levels not seen
since June 2008, led higher by miners and energy companies.
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Stock markets in Canada and the U.S. reaching near-record levels recently have
“clearly given a boost to consumer expectations in both countries during the month
of April,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York.
Canada’s economy is shaking off the impact of a severe winter that damped
production at the end of last year, with recent data showing gains in output and
employment and commodity prices on the rise. Consumers are also the most
optimistic about housing in five years, as the real estate market shows little signs of
correction.
Bloomberg Nanos’s confidence index has two sub-indexes: the Expectations Index,
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-05/canada-consumer-confidence-holds-at-almost-4-year-high-on-stocks[06/05/2014 8:34:02 AM]
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Canada Consumer Confidence Holds at Almost 4-Year High on Stocks - Businessweek
based on responses on the outlook for the economy and real-estate prices, and the
Pocketbook Index, based on survey responses to questions about personal finances
and job security. The Expectations Index remained at 60.0 last week while
Pocketbook Index fell to 59.3 from 60.2.
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Elevated Views
Perceptions about the economy’s strength remain elevated, according to the survey.
The share of respondents who say the economy will improve in the next six months
was unchanged at 24.7 percent, compared with an average 21.3 percent this year.
The share of those who anticipate a weakening, at 16.3 percent, is also well below
the 2014 average of 20.9 percent.
Statistics Canada reported April 30 gross domestic product rose for a second
month in February, supporting the Bank of Canada’s estimate of first-quarter
economic growth at a 1.5 percent annualized rate. That compares with a 0.1 percent
rate in the U.S. for the quarter.
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Earlier last month, Canada’s statistics agency reported employment rose by 42,900
in March and the jobless rate fell to 6.9 percent from 7.0 percent. The April jobs
report will be released May 9, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of today
projecting a 13,500 gain.
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Real Estate
The proportion of survey respondents who believe home values in their
neighborhood will rise over the next six months was 42.8 percent last week, the
highest since 2009.
The Canadian Real Estate Association reported last month existing home sales rose
in March at the fastest pace in seven months, led by a reviving market in Alberta.
Sales in Vancouver were 16.1 percent higher in April than a year ago, the Real
Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said last week.
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Gains in consumer confidence in recent weeks have been led by prairie provinces
such as Alberta as they benefit from strengthening commodity prices. The gauge for
the region, at 66.1, is up from as low as 61.7 in March. The Bank of Canada’s
commodity price index is up 13.9 percent since Nov. 13.
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The slide in the Pocketbook Index was led by a drop in the percentage of
respondents who say they’ve become better off financially over the past year, to
18.3 percent from 19.7 percent, reaching the lowest since Feb. 14. The percentage of
those saying their jobs are secure or somewhat secure slipped to 64.1 percent from
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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-05/canada-consumer-confidence-holds-at-almost-4-year-high-on-stocks[06/05/2014 8:34:02 AM]
Canada Consumer Confidence Holds at Almost 4-Year High on Stocks - Businessweek
64.6 percent.
The Nanos data are based on phone interviews with 1,000 people, using a fourweek rolling average of 250 respondents. The results are accurate to within 3.1
percentage points.
To contact the reporter on this story: Theophilos Argitis in Ottawa at
[email protected]
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To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Badertscher at
[email protected] Chris Fournier
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Canada Consumer Confidence Holds at Almost 4-Year High on Stocks - Businessweek
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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-05/canada-consumer-confidence-holds-at-almost-4-year-high-on-stocks[06/05/2014 8:34:02 AM]
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