Impacts on the agricultural
sector of moving towards a
‘healthy diet’
Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture
Food chain network meeting
Mobilizing the food chain for health
OECD, PARIS,
October 25-26 2012
Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’
• Measure impact on main agricultural sector
aggregates of :
–
Scenario 1 : Reduction in total fat consumption
following a comprehensive prevention strategy.
–
Scenario 2 : WHO dietary guideline target of
saturated fat consumption at 10% or less of total
calories
• Method: Simulations using the Aglink-Cosimo
Model
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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What is the AGLINK - COSIMO model?
•
A partial equilibrium model covering the main
agricultural markets (cereals, oilseeds, sugar,
meats and dairy commodities), biofuels and fish
& seafood
•
A recursive-dynamic model (i.e. the market
equilibrium in one year includes lagged variables)
•
A Policy Specific Model: includes explicitly policy
measures, such as import tariffs, tariff rate
quotas, subsidies, etc.
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Aglink-Cosimo country coverage
Australia
Argentina
Brazil
China
Canada
Russia
CHE
NOR
European
Union (15)
exogenous
AGLINK
European
Union (12)
30 countries
18 regional
aggregates
Japan
Korea
Mexico
New Zealand
USA
COSIMO
endogenous
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Decrease in fat consumption following the implementation
of a comprehensive prevention strategy
• Reduction in total fat consumption following a
comprehensive prevention strategy.
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Implementation of a comprehensive prevention
strategy : % decrease required in fat consumption
COUNTRIES
% decrease on average (2012-2021)
Argentina
-0.9
Australia
-1.4
Brazil
-0.9
Canada
-1.2
Chile
-0.9
China
-0.8
European Union
-1.1
India
-0.7
Japan
-0.8
Korea
-0.8
Mexico
-1.4
New Zealand
-1.4
Russian Federation
-0.8
United States
-1.4
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario 1 results : Impacts on world prices of a
comprehensive prevention strategy
% difference
2012
Atlantic beef world price
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cheese world price
% difference
2020
2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-5
-4
% difference
Vegetable oil world price
% difference
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2012
0
0
-1
-1
-2
Coarse grains world price
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
-2
-3
-3
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Moving to WHO guidelines for saturated fats
( 10% of total calories)
• Calculate saturated fat consumption in grams
for each country(based on FBS-FAO), aglink
database and secretariat estimates
• Total Calories taken from national sources and
assumptions applied over similar countries
• Select those countries whose consumption of
saturated fat >=10 % of total calories
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Saturated fats as a share of total calories consumed
Share of saturated fat in caloric intake
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
CHN
MEX
ARG
RUS
BRA
OECD Trade & Agriculture
USA
AUS
EU
NZL
9
SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO
guidelines
Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake
0
-5
EU
NZL
AUS
USA
BRA
RUS
ARG
MEX
CHN
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Bovine consumption and production (kt)
14000
12000
10000
8000
USA
BRA
6000
E27
CHN
4000
2000
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
Consumption
Production
OECD Trade & Agriculture
scenario 10 %
11
Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Bovine exports and imports
2500
2000
1500
USA
BRA
E27
1000
CHN
500
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
export
scenario 10 %
import
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
baseline
scenario
1000
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD Trade & Agriculture
2018
2019
2020
2021
13
Scenario results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Cheese Consumption and production
12000
10000
8000
USA
6000
BRA
E27
CHN
4000
2000
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
Consumption
scenario 10 %
Production
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Cheese exports and imports (kt)
1400
1200
1000
800
USA
BRA
600
E27
CHN
400
200
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
Exports
scenario 10 %
Imports
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Cheese world price USD/t
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
baseline
1500
scenario
1000
500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD Trade & Agriculture
2018
2019
2020
2021
16
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Vegetable oil consumption and production
40000
35000
30000
25000
USA
20000
BRA
E27
15000
CHN
10000
5000
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
Consumption
scenario 10 %
Production
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Vegetable oil exports and imports
14000
12000
10000
8000
USA
BRA
6000
E27
CHN
4000
2000
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
exports
scenario 10 %
imports
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Vegetable oil world price
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
baseline
1000
scenario
950
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD Trade & Agriculture
2018
2019
2020
2021
19
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Coarse grains consumption and production
(kt)
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
USA
200000
BRA
E27
150000
CHN
100000
50000
0
baseline
scenario 10%
baseline
consumption
scenario 10 %
production
OECD Trade & Agriculture
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Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total
calories
Coarse grains world price USD/t
250
240
230
baseline
scenario
220
210
200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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www.oecd.org/agriculture
Contact
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