This article was downloaded by: [128.125.124.9] On: 29 April 2015, At: 16:04 Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) INFORMS is located in Maryland, USA Operations Research Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://pubsonline.informs.org Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence Ali E. Abbas, Zhengwei Sun To cite this article: Ali E. Abbas, Zhengwei Sun (2015) Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence. Operations Research 62(2):378-393. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1350 Full terms and conditions of use: http://pubsonline.informs.org/page/terms-and-conditions This article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. Commercial use or systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisher approval, unless otherwise noted. 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For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org OPERATIONS RESEARCH Vol. 63, No. 2, March–April 2015, pp. 378–393 ISSN 0030-364X (print) ISSN 1526-5463 (online) http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1350 © 2015 INFORMS Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence Ali E. Abbas Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Department of Public Policy, Viterbi School of Engineering, and Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 90089, [email protected] Zhengwei Sun Department of Management Science and Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China, [email protected] The construction of a multiattribute utility function is an important step in decision analysis. One of the most widely used conditions for constructing the utility function is the assumption of mutual preferential independence where trade-offs among any subset of the attributes do not depend on the instantiations of the remaining attributes. Mutual preferential independence asserts that ordinal preferences can be represented by an additive function of the attributes. This paper derives the most general form of a multiattribute utility function that (i) exhibits mutual preferential independence and (ii) is strictly increasing with each argument at the maximum value of the complement attributes. We show that a multiattribute utility function satisfies these two conditions if and only if it is an Archimedean combination of univariate utility assessments. This result enables the construction of multiattribute utility functions that satisfy additive ordinal preferences using univariate utility assessments and a single generating function. We also provide a nonparametric approach for estimating the generating function of the Archimedean form by iteration. Subject classifications: multiattribute utility; Archimedean utility copula; preferential independence. Area of review: Decision Analysis. History: Received February 2014; revisions received November 2013, June 2014, August 2014; accepted December 2014. Published online in Articles in Advance March 4, 2015. 1. Introduction (1996), Kirkwood (1997), Greco et al. (2008), Eisenführ et al. (2010), and Lichtendahl and Bodily (2012). When uncertainty is present, it is also important to think about the cardinal preferences for the consequences of the decision. The classic work of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) shows that a utility function is needed to determine the best decision alternative in this case. It was soon realized, however, that the construction of a multiattribute utility function can be a tedious task unless some decomposition of the utility function is performed, and several methods have since been proposed to facilitate this task. Keeney and Raiffa’s (1976) classic work proposed several fundamental conditions for decomposing the utility function. Of particular interest is the notion of mutual utility independence, where preferences for lotteries over any subset of the attributes do not depend on the instantiation of the remaining attributes. The condition of mutual utility independence implies that the multiattribute utility function is either an additive or a multiplicative combination of single-attribute utility assessments, n X U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = ki Ui 4xi 51 (2) In decisions with multiple objectives, it is important to think about the ordinal preferences for the consequences of the decision. One of the earliest conditions that specified some forms of ordinal preferences is the notion of mutual preferential independence, where trade-offs among any subset of the attributes do not depend on the instantiations of the remaining attributes. In his classic work, Debreu (1960) showed that this condition on ordinal preferences corresponds to a value function that is a monotone transformation of an additive function of the attributes when the number of attributes, n ¾ 3, i.e., the value function can be expressed as n X V 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = m fi 4xi 5 1 (1) i=1 where m is a monotone function, n ¾ 3, and fi , i = 11 0 0 0 1 n are arbitrary univariate functions. The condition of mutual preferential independence represents an important class of value functions that has been used extensively in the literature. For example, net present value functions, multiplicative value functions, and Cobb-Douglas value functions all satisfy the condition of mutual preferential independence. For more applications of value functions satisfying the condition of mutual preferential independence, see Keeney (1974, 1992), Dyer and Sarin (1979), Keelin (1981), Howard (1984), Barron and Schmidt (1988), Edwards and Barron (1994), Stewart i=1 or 1 − kU 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = n Y 41 − kki Ui 4xi 551 (3) i=1 where Ui 4xi 5, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n are univariate utility functions. 378 Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 379 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Note that the functional forms (2) and (3) can be converted into an additive value function using a monotone transformation. This implies that a decision maker who exhibits mutual utility independence over lotteries also exhibits mutual preferential independence over deterministic consequences. However, the converse is not necessarily true. This paper derives the most general form of a multiattribute utility function that satisfies the condition of mutual preferential independence over deterministic multiattribute consequences but does not necessarily satisfy mutual utility independence. As we shall see, the functional form of the utility function can also be constructed using univariate utility assessments, but a univariate generating function is also needed to reflect the decision maker’s preferences for lotteries. In particular, we show that (i) a decision maker exhibits mutual preferential independence among the attributes and (ii) his utility function is strictly increasing with each argument at the maximum value of the complement attributes if and only if his utility function is an Archimedean combination of univariate utility assessments. This result completes the class of increasing utility functions that satisfy mutual preferential independence but do not necessarily satisfy mutual utility independence. This result also sheds new light on the structure of the multiattribute utility function when the condition of mutual preferential independence is satisfied. A natural question that arises with this result is how to assess the Archimedean utility form? Or equivalently, how to determine the generating function that should be used with the univariate assessments? This topic has been covered extensively in the probability literature using both parametric and nonparametric approaches for constructing an Archimedean probability copula (see for example, Genest and MacKay 1986, Genest and Rivest 1993, Sungur and Yang 1996, and for more information on probability copula functions, see Nelsen 1999). Parametric approaches for constructing probability copulas are relatively straightforward; they assume a functional form and then assess its parameters. Nonparametric approaches usually require more assessments and computational effort, but they also enjoy the benefits of providing a copula that matches the exact assessments. Sungur and Yang (1996) provide a nonparametric iterative approach to determine the surface of an Archimedean probability copula using probability assessments for points on a diagonal path in the domain of the copula function. There are, however, several fundamental differences between Archimedean utility copulas (Abbas 2009) and Archimedean probability copulas: (i) utility copula functions need not be grounded (this implies that if an attribute is at its minimum value, the utility copula need not be zero), and (ii) the cross derivative of a utility copula function can be positive, negative, or zero (see for example Abbas and Howard 2005). These conditions require several modifications to the work of Sungur and Yang (1996) if an iterative approach for constructing the generating function is to be applied to utility copulas. In this paper, we provide an iterative procedure for estimating the generating function of an Archimedean utility copula from direct utility assessments. These assessments include (i) a utility assessment at the lower boundary value of the domain and (ii) utility assessments on a path in the domain of the copula function. In our search of the literature, we have found a wealth of related work on constructing multiattribute utility functions that relax the conditions of mutual utility independence. Farquhar (1975) introduced a general decomposition theorem to develop the functional form of a multiattribute utility function with particular preference structures along the vertices of a hypercube. Bell (1979a, b) generalized utility independence to interpolation independence, where the conditional utility function is an interpolation of the conditional utility functions at the boundary values of the domain. Abbas and Bell (2011, 2012) introduced oneswitch independence for multiattribute utility functions, which is a weaker condition than utility independence and allows preferences over lotteries to change, but only once, as a parameter varies. In related work, Abbas (2013) defined double-sided utility copulas that match all boundary assessments of the attributes. Other approaches for constructing multiattribute utility functions that are relevant to our formulation have also been proposed and use a deterministic value function and then assign a single attribute utility function over value. For example, Dyer and Sarin (1982) assign a utility function over a univariate value function and define the concept of relative risk aversion, and Matheson and Abbas (2005) assign a utility function over a multivariate value function and relate the trade-off assessments among the attributes to the ratio of their relative risk-aversion functions. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the basic definitions and notation. Section 3 characterizes utility functions satisfying mutual preferential independence. Section 4 derives theoretical results to determine the generating function using diagonal assessments and illustrates the approach with numerical examples. Section 5 presents conclusions and summarizes the main results. 2. Basic Notation, Definitions, and Review of Previous Work We assume that the decision maker follows the axioms of expected utility theory and has a multiattribute utility function, U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5, defined over n attributes, X1 1 0 0 0 1 Xn . We use the lower case, xi , i ∈ 811 0 0 0 1 n9 to denote an instantiation of attribute Xi , and use xi0 and xi∗ to denote the minimum and maximum of Xi , respectively. We use X̄i to denote the set of complement attributes to Xi and use x̄i to denote an instantiation of this complement. We also use the vector 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 to denote a consequence of the Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 380 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS decision, and for notational convenience, we use 4xi 1 x̄i 5 to represent a consequence. We assume that the multiattribute utility function is (i) continuous, (ii) bounded, and (iii) strictly increasing in each argument at a reference value of the complement attributes. Our focus will be utility functions that are strictly increasing with each argument at the upper bound of the complement. We define a normalized conditional utility function of xi at the maximum value of the complement attributes, x̄i∗ , as Ui 4xi x̄i∗ 5 = U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 5 − U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 5 0 U 4xi∗ 1 x̄i∗ 5 − U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 5 (4) Abbas (2009) introduced the notion of a utility copula function that expresses the multiattribute utility function in terms of its conditional utility assessments at a reference value of the complement. A class 1 utility copula constructs a multiattribute utility function in terms of conditional utility assessments at the upper bound of the complement attributes—i.e., the utility function can be expressed as U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = C U1 4x1 x̄1∗ 51 0 0 0 1 Un 4xn x̄n∗ 5 1 (5) where C is a utility copula function. A class 1 utility copula is a linear function of each attribute at the maximum values of its complement attributes, i.e., C411 0 0 0 1 11 vi 1 11 0 0 0 1 15 = ai vi + 41 − ai 51 i = 11 0 0 0 1 n0 The utility copula function is also normalized to range from 0 to 1, i.e., C401 0 0 0 1 05 = 0 and C411 0 0 0 1 15 = 10 An important class of class 1 utility copulas is the Archimedean form C4v1 1 0 0 0 1 vn 5 n Y −1 0 ∗ 0 ∗ = 4U 4xi 1 x̄i 5 + 41 − U 4xi 1 x̄i 55vi 5 1 (6) function of the attributes using a monotone transformation. To illustrate, the functional form (6) can be converted into a product form of univariate assessments by applying a monotone transformation to both sides to get n Y C4v1 1 v2 1 0 0 0 1 vn 5 = U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 5 + 41 − U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 55vi 0 i=1 A logarithmic transformation applied to this product form results in an additive function of the attributes, ln 4C4v1 1 v2 1 0 0 0 1 vn 55 n X = ln U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 5 + 41 − U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 55vi 0 (8) i=1 Since ordinal preferences are invariant to monotone transformations, the functional form (8) has the same ordinal trade-offs as (6). What is not so obvious, however, is that additive ordinal preferences of the form n X V 4x1 1 x2 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = m fi 4x5 1 i=1 with arbitrary strictly increasing (and possibly different) functions fi must result in a multiattribute utility function of the form (6), an Archimedean combination of functions all having the same generating function, . We prove this below for the general case of n ¾ 3 but first assert this result for the case of two attributes having an additive value function. Proposition 1. If U 4x1 1 x2 5 is continuous and strictly increasing with each argument at the upper bound of the complement attributes, then the following two statements are equivalent: (i) U 4x1 1 x2 5 = UV 4V 4x1 1 x2 55 with V 4x1 1 x2 5 = m4f1 4x1 5 + f2 4x2 55, where m is a continuous monotonic function and f1 and f2 are continuous and strictly increasing functions. (ii) U 4x1 1 x2 5 = C4U1 4x1 x2∗ 51 U2 4x2 x1∗ 55, where C is an Archimedean utility copula of the form (6). The following example illustrates this result. i=1 where 4v5 is a generating function that is continuous and strictly increasing on the domain 601 17, with 415 = 1. A multiattribute utility function U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 can also be constructed using a univariate utility assessment over an ordinal value function V 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 through the relation U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = UV 4V 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 551 (7) where UV is the utility function over value. Example 1 (Two-Attribute Archimedean Form). Consider the ordinal value function V 4x1 y5 = xy 1 0 < x1 y ¶ 11 that has been used to represent trade-offs for health and consumption (Howard 1984). Note that this value function is strictly increasing with each argument at the maximum value of the complement attribute. Moreover, a logarithmic transformation converts this function into an additive function: 3. Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preference Independence log V 4x1 y5 = log x + log y0 It is not surprising to see that a utility function of the Archimedean form (6) can be converted into an additive Proposition 1 asserts that any two-attribute utility function satisfying these ordinal preferences can be expressed as an Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 381 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Archimedean combination of the conditional utility functions at the maximum margin. Consider the two-attribute utility function, obtained by taking an exponential utility function over this value function, as used in Howard (1984), and so −xy 1−e 1 0 < x1 y ¶ 10 (9) 1 − e− From (4), the conditional utility functions at the upper bounds are calculated as 1−e−x 1 4 u = U 4xy ∗ 5 = ⇒ x4u5 = − log41−41−e− 5u51 − 1−e Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. U 4x1 y5 = 4. Assessing a Multiattribute Utility Function Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence Because a single generating function is sufficient to characterize the functional form of an Archimedean copula, it will suffice to assess this generating function using a twoattribute formulation where the remaining attributes are set at their maximum values. To illustrate, note that if C4v1 1 v2 1 0 0 0 1 vn 5 is an Archimedean utility copula, then the bivariate function C4v1 1 v2 5 = C4v1 1 v2 1 11 11 0 0 0 1 15 and 1 − e−y v = U 4y x 5 = 1 − e− 1/ 1 − ⇒ y4v5 = − log41 − 41 − e 5v5 0 4 ∗ Substituting for x4u5 and y4v5 into (9) gives the utility copula function as C4u1 v5 = U 4x4u51 y4v55 − − 1 − e−41/5 log41−41−e 5u5·log41−41−e 5v5 0 (10) = 1 − e− Since ordinal preferences are additive, Proposition 1 asserts that this copula function must be Archimedean. Indeed, the function (10) can be reduced to the Archimedean form C4u1 v5 = −1 64u54v57 using the generating function 4t5 = − 1 log41 − 41 − e− 5t50 The following theorem extends the results of Proposition 1 to multiple attributes, satisfying mutual preferential independence for n ¾ 3. Theorem 1. A multiattribute utility function U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 that is continuous and strictly increasing with each argument at the maximum value of the complement attributes, with n ¾ 3, exhibits mutual preferential independence if and only if its utility copula function is of the form (6). Theorem 1 provides a fundamental method for constructing multiattribute utility functions that satisfy mutual preferential independence. Once we have asserted that preferential independence conditions exist, then the multiattribute utility function must be Archimedean, and the assessment task reduces to the assessment of univariate utility functions for each attribute as well as a univariate generating function and some corner values. Methods for assessing single-attribute utility functions for each attribute are abundant in the literature (see for example Keeney and Raiffa 1976). Our main focus will therefore be the assessment of the generating function for the Archimedean form. is an Archimedean functional form having the same generating function. In principle, one can select from a library of functions to determine the generating function of the Archimedean form and then conduct some utility assessments on the surface to estimate the parameters of the chosen functional form using a least-squares fit. This method of parameter estimation is widely used for utility functions, where the shape of the utility function is often assumed (such as an exponential function and the risk aversion coefficient is estimated to best match some utility assessments). As shown in Abbas (2009), however, the generating function of an Archimedean utility copula is strictly monotonic, but it does not need to be concave or convex on its entire domain. In fact, it can even be S shaped to allow for further flexibility in the types of trade-offs that can be modeled. Therefore, the analyst must choose a functional form for the generating function that allows for a wide variety of shapes if the generating function is to accurately represent the assessments provided. An alternate approach (that may be used for utility functions) if we do not assume a particular form is to assess a few points on the curve and then fit those points with a smooth curve. Fritsch and Carlson (1980) propose cubic polynomials, as an example, to connect ordered points using a differentiable path. This method could work well for utility functions because each fitted point can be assessed directly as the utility of a consequence and can be interpreted clearly in terms of lottery assessments. Unlike traditional utility function assessments, however, it is not possible to immediately assess points on the generating function of an Archimedean form because there is no clear interpretation for the types of lottery questions one would ask to determine points on the generating function directly. To remedy this problem, we provide a method to infer the generating function from utility assessments on the domain of the attributes and then provide proofs of convergence of these assessments to the generating function. This section explains an iterative approach to infer the generating function of the Archimedean form using direct utility assessments on the domain of the attributes. Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 382 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Since the generating function of an Archimedean utility copula is strictly increasing on the interval 601 17, its derivative is positive (and possibly zero at some finite isolated points). We consider the case where the derivative of the generating function can be zero at finite points but assume it is strictly positive at 411 15, i.e., we assume that 0 415 > 0. The utility assessments needed for constructing a twoattribute utility function using an Archimedean utility copula can be divided into two steps: (1) Step 1: Assess the boundary utility functions for each attribute at the upper bound of the complement attributes. (2) Step 2: Perform additional utility assessments to determine the generating function. These additional assessments include (a) a utility assessment at the lower bound of the domain and (b) a utility assessment on a path on the domain of the copula, which we refer to as a skewed diagonal assessment. Define the corner values, kx = U 4x∗ 1 y 0 5 and ky = U 4x0 1 y ∗ 5. Without loss of generality, we assume that kx ¾ ky . If both corner values kx 1 ky are zero, then the assessment task would be simplified and the lower bound, Step 2(a), would not be needed (the utility function would be grounded and there would be no lower boundary assessments). We shall assume therefore that at least one of the corner values kx > 0. We now explain the assessments needed to construct the Archimedean utility function in more detail. Next we derive convergence results to determine the generating function from the utility assessments of Steps 1 and 2. Step 12 Assess two boundary utility functions U 4x1 y ∗ 5 and U 4x∗ 1 y5. This step requires a utility assessment for each attribute at the upper bound of the complement attributes. For two attributes, we assess the two normalized conditional utility functions U 4x y ∗ 5 and U 4x∗ y5 as well as the two corner values kx = U 4x∗ 1 y 0 5 and ky = U 4x0 1 y ∗ 5. The normalized assessments, U 4x y ∗ 5 and U 4y x∗ 5, can be determined by fitting the individual assessments to some of the widely used functional forms of utility functions or by assessing a few points and connecting them with a smooth path. The utility function at the upper boundary values can then be determined from these normalized conditional assessments and corner values using the relations U 4x1 y ∗ 5 = ky + 41 − ky 5U 4x y ∗ 51 (11) U 4x∗ 1 y5 = kx + 41 − kx 5U 4y x∗ 50 Figure 1 plots an example of two boundary utility functions for attributes X and Y each on the domain 601 17. The figure shows that U 4x1 y ∗ 5 and U 4x∗ 1 y5 are strictly increasing and that ky = 001 and kx = 005. Step 22 Additional utility assessments needed to determine the generating function. To determine the generating function when its functional form (or even shape) is not known, we need to make some additional utility assessments. Step 24a5: Utility Assessments at a Lower Bound U 4x1 y 0 5. To illustrate the intuition for assessing a lower bound, note that the lower bound of an Archimedean utility function is related to the upper bound using a transformation that depends on the generating function. By direct substitution into (6), we get 4 U 4x1 y 0 5 = C4v1 1 05 = −1 84U 4x0 1 y ∗ 5 + 41 − U 4x0 1 y ∗ 55 · U 4x y ∗ 5594U 4x∗ 1 y 0 55 0 By assessing a lower boundary assessment and comparing it with the upper boundary assessment, we can infer some information about the shape of the generating function. We have assumed that kx ¾ ky , so we assess the utility of the attribute with the higher corner value, X, at the lower bound of the attribute with the lower corner value, Y , i.e., we need to assess the curve U 4x1 y 0 5. We then define a general transformation, g, that relates the boundary assessments as U 4x1 y ∗ 5 = g4U 4x1 y 0 550 (12) (a) The assessment U 4x1 y ∗ 5 is strictly increasing from ky to 1; (b) U 4x∗ 1 y5 is strictly increasing from kx to 1. (a) 1.0 (b) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 U (x*, y) Figure 1. U (x, y*) Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 4.1. Assessments Needed for Constructing a Two-Attribute Utility Function Using an Archimedean Utility Copula 0.5 0.4 0.3 kx = 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 ky = 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x 0.8 1.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x 0.8 1.0 Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 383 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS As attribute X spans its minimum to maximum values, the domain of the function g spans U 4x0 1y 0 5 = 0 to U 4x∗ 1y 0 5 = kx , and the range of g spans U 4x0 1y ∗ 5 = ky to U 4x∗ 1y ∗ 5 = 1. Therefore, Figure 2. (Color online) Assessments along the skewed diagonal curve and the lower bound. Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. g2 601 kx 7 → 6ky 1 17 The domain of the function g will be used to determine the generating function on the interval 601 kx 7. We discuss the properties of the transformation g in more detail in the next section. Because the domain of the generating function is 601 17, however, it is not sufficient to determine the generating function from this assessment alone. This is why we need a second assessment to characterize the generating function on 6kx 1 17. Step 24b52 Utility Assessment on a Skewed Diagonal Curve. The second assessment is conducted across a path on the domain of the attributes, which we refer to as a skewed diagonal curve. The intuition behind this name is that if both kx and ky were zero, this curve would be a straight (diagonal) line passing through the points 401 05 and 411 15 in the domain of the copula function. Because both kx andky need not be zero, however, and they need not even be equal, the assessed curve in this case traces a skewed and offset path in the domain of the consequences, as we illustrate below. The skewed diagonal path is determined by first defining a parameter t that fills in the gap from kx to 1—i.e., we define t ∈ 6kx 1 17. The values of x and y that determine this skewed diagonal path are determined by ( U 4x1 y ∗ 5 = t1 (13) U 4x∗ 1 y5 = t0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 4 S4t5 = U 4x4t51 y4t551 t ∈ 6kx 1 170 (14) Figure 2 illustrates the utility assessments on the lower bound and the skewed diagonal path. The following steps summarize the assessment procedure for the skewed diagonal curve: (i) define the parameter ton the interval 6kx 1 17; (ii) define x4t5 using the equation U 4x4t51 y ∗ 5 = t; (iii) define y4t5 using the equation U 4x∗ 1 y4t55 = t; (iv) trace the path 4x4t51 y4t55, which is shown using the dashed line in Figure 2; and (v) conduct the utility assessments S4t5 = U 4x4t51 y4t55 using indifference assessments. The following example illustrates numerically the complete set of utility assessments needed to construct an Archimedean utility function. 0.8 0.9 1.0 x Example 2 (Utility Assessments for the Archimedean Form). Step 12 Upper Boundary Assessments. The first step is to assess the upper boundary curves for each attribute. Once again, this can be done by identifying a functional form and assessing its parameters or by assessing several points and fitting them. Here we assume a particular functional form. Suppose that the upper boundary utility functions are U 4x1 y ∗ 5 = 1052 − 1042e−x 1 x ∈ 601 17 (15) and √ U 4x∗ 1 y5 = 1029 − 0079e− y 1 We therefore define x4t5 as the inverse function of the curve U 4x1 y ∗ 5 and y4t5 as the inverse function of the curve U 4x∗ 1 y5. The skewed diagonal path is traced by the points 4x4t51 y4t55 on the interval t ∈ 6kx 1 17. Denote the utility values across this path as S4t5, i.e., 0.7 1.00 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 y 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 y ∈ 601 170 (16) By direct substitution, this implies that kx = U 4x∗ 1 y 0 5 = 005 and ky = U 4x0 1 y ∗ 5 = 001. Step 24a52 Lower Boundary Assessment. Because the highest corner value is kx , we need to assess the lower boundary curve U 4x1 y 0 5. For this example, we use a hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility function at the lower bound because of its generality. The analyst may assess utility values on this lower bound and then use these utility assessments to estimate the parameters of the HARA utility. Suppose that the resulting lower boundary assessment is U 4x1y 0 5 = 00582−4009884−00041x54604 1 x ∈ 601170 (17) From (12), (15), and (17), the transformation g satisfies 1052 − 1042e−x = g400582 − 4009884 − 00041x54604 50 (18) To determine the transformation g1 define r = U 4x1 y 0 5. From (17), r = 00582 − 4009884 − 00041x54604 Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 384 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Transformation g4r52 601 kx 7 → 6ky 1 17. Figure 3. Figure 4. 1.0 g(kx) = 1 1.0 Skewed diagonal path on the X–Y domain. 0.9 (1, 1) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 g (r ) kx 0.5 0.6 0.4 (0.83, 0.50) y 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 g (0) = ky 0.3 0 0 (0.68, 0.23) 0.2 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 r 0.1 Note that r ∈ 601 kx 7 = 601 0057. Rearranging gives 0 x = 240107 − 24039400582 − r5000216 1 r ∈ 601 00570 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 (20) Figure 3 plots the transformation g4r5 in (20). Note that g2 601 kx 7 → 6ky 1 17 (as expected). Step 24b52 Skewed Diagonal Assessment. To assess the utility values along the skewed diagonal curve, we first define t ∈ 6kx 1 17. We then determine x4t5 and y4t5 for different values of t using (15) and (16), respectively. Table 1 shows the assessments. The first column shows discrete values of the parameter t. The second and third columns show the corresponding values of x4t5 and y4t5. Note that for t = kx , y4kx 5 = y 0 , and for t = 1, x415 = x∗ and y415 = y ∗ . Figure 4 plots this skewed diagonal path from Table1, which is the x–y plane of Figure 2. The last column in Table 1 shows the utility assessments for the points x4t5 and y4t5 defining the curve S4t5 obtained using indifference lottery assessments of (x4t51 y4t55 for a binary gamble that gives either 4x∗ 1 y ∗ 5 with a probability U 4x4t51 y4t55 or 4x0 1 y 0 5 with a probability 1 − U 4x4t51 y4t55. The utility assessments across the skewed diagonal path can also be made by decomposing the assessment into multiple steps using the utility tree decomposition (Abbas 2011), where lotteries representing only one variation of U 4x1 1 y1 5 = U 4x1 1 y ∗ 5U 4y1 x1 5 + U 4x1 1 y 0 5Ū 4y1 x1 5 (21) where Ū = 1 − U . The assessment U 4x1 1 y1 5 can therefore be composed into U 4x1 1 y ∗ 5, U 4x1 1 y 0 5, and U 4y1 x1 5. Note that we have already assessed the utility function on the upper and lower bounds, U 4x1 y ∗ 5 and U 4x1 y 0 5. Therefore U 4x1 1 y ∗ 5 and U 4x1 1 y 0 5 are already determined. Furthermore, the term U 4y1 x1 5 is a single indifference assessment that can be obtained using indifference assessments of 4x1 1 y1 5 for a binary gamble that gives either 4x1 1 y ∗ 5 or 4x1 1 y 0 5. This gamble keeps the level x1 fixed and varies only y1 from y 0 to y ∗ . Figure 5 illustrates the six assessments for S4t5 versus t in Table 1. Figure 5. A utility assessment on the skewed diagonal curve S4t5. 1.0 S(1) = 1 0.9 S (0.8) = 0.8189 0.8 0.7 S (0.8) = 0.6641 Table 1. t Determine the skewed diagonal path 4x4t51 y4t55 and the utility assessment S4t5. x4t5 y4t5 S4t5 0.6 S (0.7) = 0.5253 0.5 0.4 S (0.6) = 0.3972 0.3 kx = 005 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0033 0043 0055 0068 0083 1 0 0002 0008 0023 0050 1 1.0 x each attribute can be incorporated. For example, consider the utility assessment at 4x1 1 y1 5. The utility tree decomposition is 000216 5 1 r ∈ 601 00570 0.1 (19) Substituting from (19) into (18) gives g4r5 = 1052 − 1042e−4240107−24039400582−r5 (0.55, 0.08) (0.43, 0.02) (0.33, 0) 0 S(t) Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 0.6 002765 003972 005253 006641 008189 1 0.2 S (0.5) = 0.2765 0.1 0 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 t Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 385 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS We have now conducted all utility assessments needed to determine the utility surface. Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 4.2. Determining the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17 4.2.1. Relating S4t5 to the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17. We now determine the generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17 using the assessment S4t5. The following proposition relates S4t5 to the generating function. 1.00 0.95 0.75 0.65 4 ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 Step 3: For any S 4−m5 4t5, define the exponential function m 4t5 such that m 4t5 = e2 m 4S 4−m5 4t5−15 0 We prove in Theorem 2 that the iterations m 4t5 converge to the generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17 as mincreases. The following example illustrates the steps needed to solve this functional equation numerically and to determine the generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17. Example 3 (Determining the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17). Step 12 Determine the Inverse function S −1 4t5. To determine the inverse function S −1 4t5 from the assessments in Table 1, we interchange the order of the assessments of 4t1 S4t55. The six assessments of 4t1 S −1 4t55 are as follows: 40027651 0055, 40039721 0065, 40052531 0075, 40066411 0085, 40081891 0095, and 411 15. The next step is to fit the assessments of S −1 4t5 using a smooth curve to help determine its composite functions. Appendix B derives the properties of S4t5 and its inverse S −1 4t5 and illustrates why the inverse function is clearly defined. Appendix C provides a procedure to determine a piecewise polynomial fit for S −1 4t5 that may be used in practice. Step 22 Determine the Composite Functions S −4m5 4t5. Given S −1 4t5, the calculation of S −2 4t5 is obtained by itera4 tion, where S −425 4t5 = S −1 4S −1 4t55, and similarly for higher −4m5 orders to get S 4t5. Figure 6 plots the inverse function S −1 and its composite functions, S 4−35 and S 4−65 on 6kx 1 17 S –1(t) 0.80 S4t5 = −1 444t552 51 S 4−m5 4t5 = S −1 · · · S −1 4t51 S (–3)(t) 0.85 0.70 Proposition 2 shows that a portion of the generating function on the interval t ∈ 6kx 1 17 can be estimated if we solve the functional equation 4S4t55 = 44t552 . We provide an iterative solution to this functional equation using the following steps: Step 1: Determine the inverse function S −1 on the interval 6kx 1 17. Step 2: Determine the composite inverse function for any positive integer m as S (– 6)(t) 0.90 Proposition 2. Relating S4t5 to the Generating Function t ∈ 6kx 1 17 Inverse function S −1 and its composite functions S 4−35 and S 4−65 . Figure 6. 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 t as determined by the polynomial fit of S −1 in Appendix C. Appendix B, explains why S 4−m5 4t5 ¾ S 4−4m−155 4t5 and, therefore, why the curves in Figure 6 are increasing with m. Step 32 Determine the Iterations m 4t5. For any S 4−m5 4t5, define the exponential function m 4t5 = e2 m 4S 4−m5 4t5−15 0 (22) The iterations m 4t5 are obtained by direct substitution. −1 Figure 7 plots the curves 1 4t5 = e24S 4t5−15 , 3 4t5 = 84S 4−35 4t5−15 644S 4−65 4t5−15 e , and 6 4t5 = e computed directly from S −1 , S 4−35 , and S 4−65 . As we shall see, the iterations m 4t5 approximate the generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17. 4.2.2. Convergence of m 4t5 to the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17. Observe that the generating function of an Archimedean copula is unique up to a power transformation, i.e., if C4v1 1 0 0 0 1 vn 5 is an Archimedean utility copula with generating function , then it is also the copula formed by the generating function , > 0. Lemma 1. If the derivative of the generating function at t = 1 is not equal to zero (i.e., 0 415 6= 0), then there always exists > 0 such that ¯ 0 415 = 1, where ¯ = . Figure 7. Convergence of m 4t5, m = 11 31 6 on 6kx 1 17. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 m 0.6 0.5 1(t) 0.4 3(t) 6(t) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 t Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 386 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Lemma 1 implies that if 0 415 6= 0 (as we have assumed) then we can further assume without loss of generality that the generating function satisfies 0 415 = 1. 4t5 = lim m 4t51 ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 m→ (23) Theorem 2 asserts that higher orders of m 4t5 converge to the generating function, 4t5, on the interval t ∈ 6kx 1 17. While any power of a generating function results in an equivalent Archimedean copula, the convergence of Theorem 2 results in the generating function that satisfies the condition 0 415 = 1. 4.3. Determining the Generating Function on the Interval 601 kx 5 We have determined the generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17. We now show how to determine the generating function on the remaining interval using the estimated generating function on the interval 6kx 1 17 and the transformation function g4r5. 4.3.1. Relating g4r5 to the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17. Define the pth composite function g 4p5 4r5 as 4p5 ∀ r ∈ 600271 00551 p4r5 = 21 ∀ r ∈ 600131 002751 p4r5 = 31 ∀ r ∈ 600031 001351 p4r5 = 41 ∀ r ∈ 601 00035 Figure 8(b) plots the function p4r5 and shows that it is a decreasing step function. The domain of p4r5 is the interval 401 kx 5 and it is integer-valued. The following proposition relates the functions g 4p5 4r5 to the generating function. Proposition 3 (Relating g 4p5 4r5 to the Generating Function on r ∈ 601 kx 5). 4 g 4r5 = g · · · g4r50 Before we relate g4r5 to the generating function, we need to provide some intuition about the shape of the compositions g 4p5 4r5. Figure 8(a) plots the functions g4r5, g 425 4r5, g 435 4r5, and g 445 4r5 for the assessments of Example 2. Observe the following important features from Figure 8(a): (a) The domain of g4r5 is 601 kx 7 and its range is ky to 1 (as expected). Moreover, it satisfies the inequality kx ¶ g4r5 < 1 on the interval r ∈ 600271 0055. No other composite function of g satisfies the inequality kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1 on the interval r ∈ 600271 0055. Figure 8. p4r5 = 11 4r5 = 44kx 55p 4g 4p5 4r551 r ∈ 601 kx 50 (a) Composite functions g4r5, g 425 4r5, g 435 4r5, and g 445 4r5; (b) integer valued function p4r5. p (r) = 4 (a) 1.0 p (r) = 3 p(r) = 2 p (r) = 1 (b) 4 0.9 0.8 3 (4) 0.7 g (r) 0.6 g(3)(r) 0.5 g(r) kx = 0.5 g(2)(r) 2 0.4 1 0.3 0.2 r4 = 0.03 0.1 0 r2 = 0.27 r3 = 0.13 r1 = kx = 0.5 r4 = 0.03 r2 = 0.27 r3 = 0.13 r1 = kx = 0.5 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 r (24) Equation (24) is a functional equation that shows that 4r5 on the interval 601 kx 5 is equal to the product of the constant44kx 55p and the composition 4g 4p5 4r55 for any value of p. This might suggest at first that we can determine the generating function on the interval 601 kx 5 by direct substitution for r ∈ 601 kx 5 into (24). The problem we encounter however is that we have only determined the value of 4t5 on the interval 6kx 1 17. If the value of r in (24) is such that g 4p5 4r5 ∈ 6kx 1 171 then we can substitute directly into p (r) Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Theorem 2 (Determining the Generating Function on the Interval 6kx 1 17). If the generating function of an Archimedean utility copula, 4t5, satisfies 0 415 = 1, then (b) The function g 425 4r5 satisfies kx ¶ g 425 4r5 < 1 on the interval r ∈ 600131 00275. No other composite function of g satisfies kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1 on this interval. (c) The function g 435 4r5 satisfies kx ¶ g 435 4r5 < 1 on the interval r ∈ 600031 00135. No other composite function of g satisfies kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1 on this interval. (d) The function g 445 4r5 satisfies kx ¶ g 445 4r5 < 1 on the interval r ∈ 601 00035. No other composite function of g satisfies kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1 over this interval. The function g 445 4r5 has the property that its value at zero is greater than kx . This is where we end the compositions of g4r5 for the purposes of estimating the generating function. We can now define the integer-valued decreasing function p4r5 as the smallest integer, p, for any r, that satisfies kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1. From Figure 8(a), we have 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 r Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 387 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS the right-hand side of (24) to determine the corresponding value of 4r5. It might be possible, however, that the composition g 4p5 4r5, for a given value of p, lies outside the interval 6kx 1 17, as we have seen in Figure 8(a). If this is the case, then we cannot determine 4r5 by direct substitution into the right-hand side for that value of p. The question that arises now is whether we can always find a value of p such that the composition g 4p5 4r5 belongs to the interval 6kx 1 17 for any r ∈ 601 kx 5? If this were the case, then we can determine 4r5 over the whole interval 601 kx 5 by direct substitution into the right-hand side of (24). The following lemma asserts this fact. Convergence of m 4r5, m = 11 31 6 on 401 kx 5. Figure 9. 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 m 0.2 1(r ) 3(r ) 6(r ) 0.1 0 Lemma 2 (Existence of the Integer p). For any given r ∈ 401 kx 5, there exists a composite function g 4p5 such that 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 r kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 10 As a result of Lemma 2, for any r ∈ 401 kx 5, we are guaranteed a value of p such that kx ¶ g 4p5 4r5 < 1. For ease of calculation of the composite functions, we shall use the lowest value of p that satisfies this condition, i.e., p4r5. This will enable us to determine the values of 4r5 over 401 kx 5. The Iteration m 4r5. Define the function m 4r5 = 4m 4kx 55p4r5 m 4g 4p4r55 4r551 ∀ r ∈ 401 kx 51 (25) 4.3.2. Determining the Generating Function on the Interval 401 kx 5. Theorem 3. If the generating function of an Archimedean utility copula, 4t5, satisfies 0 415 = 1, then 4r5 = lim m 4r51 m→ ∀ r ∈ 401 kx 50 (28) 2m 6S 4−m5 4t5−157 where m 4t5 = e , t ∈ 6kx 1 17 is the same iteration defined earlier and S 4−m5 4t5 is the mth-order composite function of the inverse function S −1 4t5 (also calculated earlier). To better understand this function (25), note that the first term is simply a constant term m 4kx 5 raised to the power of p4r5. The second term m 4g 4p4r55 4r55 is a composite function based on the iteration m 4t5 and the p4r5 composition of g4r5. We do not need to plot the full curves in Figure 8 every time we compute m 4r5. To illustrate, suppose we wish to calculate 3 40025. We first determine the value g40025 = 00377. Because g40025 < 005 = kx , we conduct another composition to get g 425 40025 = g4g400255 = g4003775 = 00688 > 005 = kx 0 Hence, the integer valued function p40025 = 2, and we do not need higher compositions at r = 002. Now we calculate 3 4g 425 400255 = 3 4006885 as 3 4g 425 400255 = e2 3 4S 4−35 4006885−155 = e8400946−15 = 00650 (26) For the constant term, 3 4kx 5 = e2 3 4S 4−35 40055−15 = e84008955−15 = 00430 (27) Substituting from (26) and (27) into (25) gives 3 40025 = 43 4kx 55p40025 3 4g 4p400255 400255 = 00432 × 0065 = 00120 Figure 9 plots the curve m 4r5 form = 11 31 6 for the skewed diagonal assessment of Table 1 and the boundary assessments of Example 3. Theorem 3 asserts that higher orders of m converge to the generating function on the interval 401 kx 5. Once again, while any power of a generating function results in an equivalent Archimedean copula, the convergence of Theorem 3 results in a generating function that satisfies the condition 0 415 = 1. 4.4. Summary of the Approach We now summarize the steps needed to determine the generating function from the utility assessments and then illustrate the deviation between consecutive iterations. (i) Assess two corner values: kx and ky . Assume that kx ¾ ky . (ii) Assess two utility functions at the upper bound: U 4x y ∗ 5 and U 4y x∗ 5. (iii) Assess the utility function at the lower bound, U 4x1 y 0 5. (iv) Determine g4r5 on the interval 601 kx 7 using (12) and its composites g 4p5 4r5. (v) Determine the integer-valued function p4r5 from the functions g 4p5 4r5. (vi) Assess the utility values along the skewed diagonal curve, S4t5. (vii) Determine the inverse function S −1 4t5 and its composite functions S 4−m5 4t5. (viii) Use Theorems 2 and 3 to determine the generating function 4t5. Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 388 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS 5. Convergence and Comparison with Other Approaches a linear function. It is natural to consider what S4t5 would look like if the attributes are mutually utility independent. The following proposition determines S4t5 in this case. To provide some insights into the rate of conversion of the results for examples, define the iteration m 4t5 as ( m 4t51 t ∈ 6kx 1 171 m 4t5 = (29) m 4t51 t ∈ 401 kx 50 Define the deviation between m 4t5 and m+1 4t5 over the interval 601 17 as Z 1 1/2 4m+1 4t5 − m 4t552 dt em = 0 0 Figure 10 shows the deviation, em , plotted versus m, where the iterations of m 4t5 are obtained from the assessments of Table 1 with the lower boundary assessment in (17). From the convergence results of Theorems 2 and 3, this deviation converges to 0, i.e., lim em = 00 Proposition 4. Two attributes are mutually utility independent with kx ¾ ky if and only if the utility function U 4x1 y5 has an Archimedean utility copula, and the following two statements hold: (i) U 4x y ∗ 5 = U 4x y 0 5, x ∈ 6x0 1 x∗ 71 and (ii) S4t5 = kt 2 + 241 − k5t + k − 1, t ∈ 6kx 1 171 where k = 41 − kx − ky 5/441 − kx 541 − ky 55. Proposition 4 shows a new method to verify mutual utility independence between two attributes. First, we verify that U 4x y ∗ 5 = U 4x y 0 51 where X is the attribute with the greater corner value. Next, we assert that S4t5 is quadratic. If these conditions hold then the attributes are mutually utility independent. For the special case where kx + ky = 1 (the case of an additive utility function), then k = 0 and S4t5 is a linear function. The following example compares the accuracy of the Archimedean utility copula obtained by the iterative approach for Example 2 to the utility function obtained assuming mutual utility independence. m→ The iterations can be conducted to reach the acquired accuracy of estimating the generating function as shown in Figure 10. Since the generating function 4t5 is unknown in the approximation procedure, we terminate the iterations on m 4t5 when em is sufficiently small. Note that these iterations do not require additional cognitive effort from the decision maker; they are simply computations used to calculate additional composite functions. 5.2. Comparison with Mutual Utility Independence We now compare the estimates of the transformation g and the skewed diagonal assessment S4t5 to those obtained using the assumption of mutual utility independence. If two attributes are mutually utility independent, then U 4x y ∗ 5 = U 4x y 0 5 and so g4r5 = ky + Figure 10. 0.040 1 − ky r1 kx (30) Deviation Between m+1 4t5 and m 4t5. Example 4 (Comparison with Mutual Utility Independence). Consider again the two-attribute utility function of Example 2, where U 4x1 y ∗ 5 = 1052 − 1042e−x 1 x ∈ 601 171 e1 = 0.0389 (31) and √ U 4x∗ 1 y5 = 1029 − 0079e− y 1 y ∈ 601 170 (32) This implies that kx = 005 and ky = 001. To compare our iterative assessment approach with that of mutual utility independence, we first compute the constant k k= 1 − kx − ky 1 − 001 − 005 = = 00890 41 − kx 541 − ky 5 41 − 005541 − 0015 Proposition 4 asserts that skewed diagonal assessment must be S4t5 = 0089t 2 + 0022t − 00111 t ∈ 60051 170 From (30), the transformation function has the form 0.035 0.030 Deviation Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 5.1. Convergences of Successive Iterations g4r5 = 001 + 108r1 0.025 r ∈ 601 00570 e2 = 0.0232 Figure 11 shows the skewed diagonal assessment S4t5 and the transformation function g4r5 for the utility function of Example 2. 0.020 e3 = 0.0137 0.015 e4 = 0.0078 0.010 0.005 e5 = 0.0045 0 1 2 3 m 4 It is straightforward to see that a linear generating function of the form 5 4t5 = kt + 41 − k51 t ∈ 601 17 (33) Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 389 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Figure 11. Archimedean copula vs. mutual utility independence. S(1) = 1 (a) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Archimedean utility copula 0.7 0.7 0.6 g(r) S (t) 0.6 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. g (kx) = 1 (b) 1.0 0.5 0.4 Mutual utility independence 0.5 0.4 Mutual utility independence 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Archimedean utility copula g(0) = ky 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 r t Note. (a) Skewed diagonal assessment S4t5; (b) transformation function g4r5. satisfies the condition of mutual utility independence. But to compare the generating function obtained from the iterative approach to that of mutual utility independence, we need take a power of (33) that makes 0 415 = 1. Recall that the condition of 0 415 = 1 applies to the generating functions obtained from the iterative approach. Direct substitution shows that the function 4t5 = 4kt + 41 − k551/k satisfies the condition 0 415 = 1. From here on, we denote the generating function for mutual utility independence as UI 4t5 = 6kt + 41 − k571/k as it will be used in the comparison with the generating function obtained from the iterative approach. Figure 12 plots the 3 and 6 , UI 4t5 for Example 2. The figure also shows the actual generating function 4t5 that we used to determine the numerical values of the examples in this paper. Of course, 4t5 is not known to the analyst during this entire procedure. We simply included 4t5 Generating functions UI 4t5, 4t5, 3rdorder iteration 3 4t5 and 6th-order iteration 6 4t5. Figure 12. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 UI (t ) 3 (t) 6 (t) (t) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 t 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 in the figure to illustrate the convergence of the results. The figure shows that 4t5 and 6 4t5 are indistinguishable over the entire interval 601 17. The figure also shows the improvement that 3 offers over UI in this example. 6. Conclusion Ordinal preferences represented by additive value functions are widely used in practice. When uncertainty is present, a multiattribute utility function is needed to determine the best decision alternative. We completed the class of multiattribute utility functions that correspond to additive ordinal preferences that are strictly increasing with each attribute at the maximum value of the complement. We showed that this class of utility functions must be an Archimedean combination of the utility assessments. The results of this paper shed some new light on the structure of multiattribute utility functions satisfying mutual preferential independence. As we have shown, the functional form of the utility function is highly constrained, even if mutual utility independence conditions are not satisfied. The main insight from this formulation is the assertion that if mutual preferential independence is verified, then preferences over lotteries can be decomposed into two parts: (1) single attribute assessments at the upper bound and (2) a single generating function that combines these single attribute assessments. The assumption of mutual utility independence focuses only on the upper boundary assessments but ignores the second component: the generating function. The inclusion of the generating function allows for more general trade-offs and preferences over lotteries and simultaneously satisfies the same utility values at the boundaries. Another implication of the results of this work is that once preferential independence is verified, we do not need to determine the actual values of the ordinal functions of the attributes when constructing the multiattribute utility function; assessing the boundary utility functions using indifference assessments and constructing the generating Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 390 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS function (also using indifference assessments) is sufficient to capture the whole structure of the utility function. When constructing a multiattribute utility function, the next step after preferential independence is to verify whether the attributes can be formulated to achieve some forms of utility independence. If such independence conditions can be verified, then the functional form of the utility function is highly simplified. When utility independence conditions cannot be verified, it is important to capture the utility dependence among the attributes if we wish to provide an accurate representation of the decision maker’s preferences. The results of this paper provide the complete class of utility functions and methods for their assessment when decision makers have additive ordinal preferences for increasing utility functions but when mutual utility independence conditions do not exist. Acknowledgments The authors thank the editor, associate editor, and three anonymous referees for their comments on content and exposition. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation awards [SES 08-46417, CMMI 12-58482, and CMMI 13-01150]. Appendix A Observe that U 4x1 1 x2∗ 5 = U 4x10 1 x2∗ 5 + 41 − U 4x10 1 x2∗ 55U 4x1 x2∗ 5 and U 4x1 1 x2∗ 5 = U 4x1∗ 1 x20 5 + 41 − U 4x1∗ 1 x20 55U 4x2 x1∗ 50 Substituting for (A4) into (A2) with u = U 4x1 x2∗ 5 and v = U 4x2 x1∗ 5, we get C4u1 v5 = −1 U 4x10 1 x2∗ 5 + 1 − U 4x10 1 x2∗ 55u · U 4x1∗ 1 x20 5 + 41 − U 4x1∗ 1 x20 55v 1 (A5) which is the Archimedean utility copula of (6). Sufficiency: If U 4x1 1 x2 5 has an Archimedean utility copula, then (A4) holds. Applying a monotone transformation ln44t55 gives an additive form ln 4U 4x1 1 x2∗ 55 + ln 4U 4x1∗ 1 x2 55 0 (A6) Because ordinal preferences are invariant to monotone transformations, the form in (A6) is equivalent to the additive form m4f1 4x1 5 + f2 4x2 55, where m4t5 = t1 f2 4x1 5 = ln 4U 4x1∗ 1 x2 55 1 and f2 4x1 5 = ln 4U 4x1∗ 1 x2 55 0 Proof of Theorem 1. Necessity: Following the steps in Proposition 1, for multiple attributes, n X U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 = UV m fi 4xi 5 Proof of Proposition 1. Necessity: Given U 4x1 1 x2 5 = UV 4m4f1 4x5 + f2 4x5551 i=1 where U 4x1 1 x2∗ 5 and U 4x1∗ 1 x2 5 are strictly increasing. This implies that f1 4x1∗ 51 f2 4x2∗ 5 < ; otherwise U 4x1 1 x2∗ 5 would not be strictly increasing and likewise for U 4x1∗ 1 x2 5. We have 4 U 4x1 1 x2 5 = UV m4f1 4x1 5 + f2 4x2 55 = UV m4ln4ef1 4x1 5 ef2 4x2 5 55 0 ∗ ∗ Define f˜1 4x1 5 = e4f1 4x1 5−f1 4x1 55 and f˜2 4x2 5 = e4f2 4x2 5−f1 4x2 55 . Therefore, ˜ ˜ U 4x1 1 x2 5 = UV m ln4ef1 4x1 5 ef2 4x2 5 5 + f1 4x1∗ 5 + f2 4x2∗ 5 4 = ŨV f˜1 4x1 5f˜2 4x2 5 1 = ŨV n Y f˜i 4xi 5 1 ∗ where f˜i 4xi 5 = e4fi 4xi 5−fi 4xi 55 , i = 11 0 0 0 1 n, and ŨV 4v5 = P UV 4m4ln v + ni=1 fi 4xi∗ 555, which is a strictly increasing function. Note that f˜i 4xi∗ 5 = 1, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n0 When x̄i = x̄i∗ , (A7) gives Y Y U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 5 = ŨV f˜i 4xi 5 f˜j 4xj∗ 5 = ŨV f˜i 4xi 5 1 j6=i (A1) (A7) i=1 j6=i = ŨV 4f˜i 4xi 550 4 where ŨV 4v5 = UV 4m4ln v + f1 4x1∗ 5 + f2 4x2∗ 555, which is a strictly increasing function. Note that f˜1 4x1∗ 5 = f˜2 4x2∗ 5 = 1. When x2 = x2∗ , (A1) gives 4 f˜i 4xi 5 = ŨV−1 4U 4xi 1 x̄i∗ 55 = 4U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 5 + 41 − U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 55U 4xi x̄i∗ 551 U 4x1 1x2∗ 5 = ŨV 4f˜1 4x1 5f˜2 4x2∗ 55 = ŨV 4f˜1 4x1 5·15 = ŨV 4f˜1 4x1 550 4 Define = ŨV−1 , which is strictly increasing, and note that 415=1. Therefore, f˜1 4x1 5 = ŨV−1 4U 4x1 1 x2∗ 55 = 4U 4x1 1 x2∗ 550 Define = ŨV−1 ; then 4v5 is strictly increasing with 415 = 1 and (A2) ∀ i = 11 0 0 0 1 n1 (A8) Substituting for = ŨV−1 and (A8) into (A7) gives U 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xn 5 n Y = −1 4U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 5 + 41 − U 4xi0 1 x̄i∗ 55U 4xi x̄i∗ 55 i=1 Similarly, Therefore, the Class 1 utility copula of U 4x1 1 x2 5 is f˜2 4x2 5 = 4U 4x1∗ 1 x2 550 (A3) 4 Substituting for (A2), (A3) into (A1) with = ŨV−1 gives U 4x1 1 x2 5 = −1 44U 4x1 1 x2∗ 55 · 4U 4x1∗ 1 x2 5550 C4v1 1 0 0 0 1 v5 n Y ∗ −1 0 ∗ 0 = 4U 4xi 1 x̄i 5 + 41 − U 4xi 1 x̄i 55vi 5 1 i=1 (A4) which is the Archimedean utility copula of (6). (A9) Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 391 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS Sufficiency: This is straightforward by applying a transformation ln44t55 to (A9). Substituting from (A13) into (A12) gives Proof of Proposition 2 for S4t5. By definition, U 4x4t51 y ∗ 5 = t and U 4x∗ 1 y4t55 = t. Therefore, 4r5 = 44g4g4r555 · 4kx 55 · 4kx 5 4U 4x4t51 y ∗ 55 = 4U 4x∗ 1 y4t555 = 4t5 Repeating the above iteration with g4r5 gives Substituting into (A4) gives, 4r5 = 4g 4p5 4r5544kx 55p 0 4 S4t5 = U 4x4t51 y4t55 = −1 4U 4x4t51 y ∗ 54U 4x∗ 1 y4t555 −1 2 = 444t55 51 ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 Proof of Lemma 1. Because the generating function is strictly increasing on the interval 601 17, its derivative at 1, 0 415 ¾ 0. If 0 415 6= 0 (as we have assumed), then 0 415 > 0. Because the generating function of an Archimedean copula is invariant to a power transformation, define the new generating function ¯ = , with = 1/0 415 > 0. Note that 415 ¯ = 1 and its derivative satisfies ¯ 0 415 = 0 415 · 64157 = 1. Proof of Theorem 2. Define 4t5 = − ln44t55, ∀ t ∈ 401 17 and its inverse −1 4v5 = −1 4e−v 5, ∀ v ∈ 601 5. Note that 4t5 is strict decreasing on the interval 601 17 with 415 = − ln 44155 = 0. Moreover, 4t5 = e−4t5 , ∀ t ∈ 401 17, so (A14) Proof of Lemma 2. For a given r ∈ 401 kx 5, 0 ¶ 405 < 4r5 < 4kx 5 < 1 since is strictly increasing. Hence, limp→ 44kx 55p = 0 < 4r50 Therefore, 44kx 55p ¶ p4r5 for a sufficiently large integer p > 1. Define p0 as the smallest such integer—i.e., 44kx 55p0 ¶ 4r5 and 44kx 55p0 −1 > 4r5. Hence, 4kx 5 ¶ = 4r5 · 4kx 5 44kx 55p0 4r5 < 1 = 4150 44kx 55p0 −1 (A15) Note that 4g 4p0 −15 4r55 = 4r5/44kx 55p0 −1 due to Proposition 3. Hence, inequality (A15) becomes 4kx 5 ¶ 4g 4p0 −15 4r55 < 415. Since is strictly increasing, 4kx 5 ¶ 4g 4p5 4r55 < 415, where p = p0 − 1. Proof of Theorem 3. Note that g 4p4r55 4r5 ∈ 6kx 1 15, ∀ r ∈ 401 kx 5. Proposition 3 gives 4 S4t5 = −1 444t552 5 = −1 44e−4t5 52 5 = −1 4e−24t5 5 = −1 424t551 = 4g 425 4r55 · 44kx 552 0 ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 4r5 = 64kx 57p4r5 · 4g 4p4r55 4r55 Define qm 4t5 = S 4m5 41 − 2−m t5 and its inverse function qm−1 4t5 = 2m 41 − S 4−m5 4t55. Note that 0 415 = 1, the derivative 0 415 = −40 415/4155 = −1 6= 0. Sungur and Yang (1996) proved that for the eqnarray S4t5 = −1 424t55, the inverse function −1 satisfies = lim 6m 4kx 57p4r5 · lim m 4g 4p4r55 4r55 m→ m→ p4r5 = lim 6m 4kx 57 m→ · m 4g 4p4r55 4r55 = lim m 4r50 m→ −1 4t5 = lim S 4m5 1 + m→ = lim qm 4t51 m→ t 2m 0 415 Proof of Proposition 4. Necessity: If two attributes are mutually utility independent, then = lim S 4m5 41 − 2−m t5 m→ ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 (A10) U 4x y ∗ 5 = U 4x y 0 51 Hence, the function satisfies 4t5 = limm→ qm−1 4t5, ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 170 Therefore, −1 4t5 4t5 = e−4t5 = lim e−qm m→ = lim e2 m 4S 4−m5 4t5−15 m→ = lim m 4t50 ∀ x ∈ 4x0 1 x∗ 51 and U 4x1 y5 = kx U 4x y ∗ 5 + ky U 4y x∗ 5 m→ + 41 − kx − ky 5U 4x y ∗ 5U 4y x∗ 50 (A16) Proof of Proposition 3. Taking y = y 0 in (A4) gives According to the definition of the utility copula in (5), we get its utility copula as U 4x1 y 0 5 = −1 44U 4x1 y ∗ 55 · 4U 4x∗ 1 y 0 555 = −1 44U 4x1 y ∗ 55 · 4kx 550 (A11) C4u1 v5 = kx u + ky v + 41 − kx − ky 5uv0 (A17) Denote r = U 4x1 y 0 51 then g4r5 = g4U 4x1 y 0 55 = U 4x1 y ∗ 5. Substituting g4r5 into (A11) gives Substituting the definitions of x4t5 and y4t5 in (13), (11), and (A16) into (14) gives r = −1 44g4r55 · 4kx 551 S4t5 = U 4x4t51 y4t55 i.e., 4r5 = 4g4r55 · 4kx 50 (A12) Applying (A12) at g4r5 gives 4g4r55 = 4g4g4r555 · 4kx 5 = 4g 425 4r55 · 4kx 50 = kx (A13) t − ky t − ky t − kx t − kx + ky + 41 − kx − ky 5 1 − ky 1 − kx 1 − ky 1 − kx = kt 2 + 241 − k5t + k − 10 Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 392 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS If kx + ky = 1, then U 4x1 y5 = kx U 4x y ∗ 5 + ky U 4y x∗ 5, which has the additive value function as kx U 4x y ∗ 5 + ky U 4y x∗ 5. If kx + ky 6= 1, then ky 41 − kx − ky 5 kx ky kx − · U 4x y ∗ 5 − 41 − kx − ky 5 41 − kx − ky 5 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. U 4x1 y5 = 41 − kx − ky 5 U 4x y ∗ 5 − Appendix C. Piecewise Cubic Polynomial Interpolation We applied a piecewise cubic polynomial interpolation for curve fitting of S −1 4t5 (see Fritsch and Carlson 1980 for further details). Denote the assessed points as 4xi 1 yi 5, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n + 1. The approach assigns a cubic polynomial Si−1 4x5 over each interval 6xi 1 xi+1 7, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n as the fitting curve, where Si−1 4x5 = h00 4r5yi + h10 4r54xi+1 − xi 5mi + h01 4r5yi+1 = 41 − kx − ky 5 ∗ · eln4U 4x y 5−ky /41−kx −ky 55+ln4U 4x y kx ky − 1 41 − kx − ky 5 + h11 4r54xi+1 − xi 5mi+1 1 ∗ 5−k which has the additive value function as ky ln U 4x y 5 − 41 − kx − ky 5 kx + ln U 4x y ∗ 5 − 0 41 − kx − ky 5 x ∈ 6xi 1 xi+1 71 (C1) x /41−kx −ky 55 where r = 4x − xi 5/4xi+1 − xi 5, and where mi , mi+1 are the derivatives at xi and xi+1 , respectively. The functions h00 , h01 , h10 , and h11 are cubic polynomials defined as h00 4t5 = 2r 3 − 3r 2 + 11 h01 4r5 = −2r 3 + 3r 2 h10 4r5 = r 3 − 2r 2 + r1 and h11 4r5 = r 3 − r 2 0 ∗ Hence, U 4x1 y5 has an Archimedean utility copula as a result of Proposition 1. Sufficiency: Theorems 2 and 3 show that the generating function 4t5 of the Archimedean utility copula in (6) satisfying 0 415 = 1 is uniquely determined on the interval 401 17 by the monotone transformation g4r5 and the skewed diagonal assessment S4t50 Hence, g4r5 and S4t5 uniquely determine the Archimedean utility copula C4u1 v5 of (6). Note that, if U 4x y ∗ 5 = U 4x y 0 51 then g4r5 = ky + 441 − ky 5/kx 5r0 Therefore, if (i) and (ii) hold, then the Archimedean utility copula C4u1 v5 is in the form of (6) and then two attributes are mutually utility independent. Appendix B Properties of S4t5. (1) S4t5 2 6kx 1 17 → 6S4kx 51 17. (2) S4t5 is a continuous and strictly increasing function (refer to Lemma 2). (3) S4t5 < t. This is because 44t552 < 4t5, so −1 444t552 5 < −1 44t55 = t. (4) The minimum value is S4kx 5 ¶ kx . (5) The maximum value is S415 = U 4x∗ 1 y ∗ 5 = 1. Because S4t5 is continuous and strictly increasing, we can define the inverse function S −1 on the interval 6kx 1 17. Properties of S −1 4t5. (1) S −1 2 6kx 1 17 → 6S −1 4kx 51 17. (2) S −1 4t5 > t, ∀ t ∈ 6kx 1 15 because S4t5 < t. (3) Minimum value: S −1 4kx 5 > kx (because S4kx 5 < kx , −1 S 4kx 5 > kx 5. (4) Maximum value: S −1 415 = 1 (because S415 = 15. (5) S 4−m5 4t5 > S 4−4m−155 4t5, t ∈ 6kx 1 15 (this is because S −1 4t5 > t5. Note that S −1 4kx 5 > kx , we know that the domain of S −1 , 6kx 1 17 contains its range, 6S −1 4kx 51 17. Therefore, the composites, S 4−m5 4t5, m = 11 21 0 0 0, are well defined on 6kx 1 17. The derivatives mi , mi+1 are the only unknown parameters in (C1) given the assessed points 4xi 1 yi 5, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n + 10 We now show how to calculate these derivatives. Denote the length of the ith interval as li = xi+1 − xi and the slope of the line connecting its two endpoints as di = 4yi+1 − yi 5/ 4xi+1 − xi 5, i = 11 0 0 0 1 n − 1. (i) The interior derivatives mi , i = 21 0 0 0 1 n − 1 are di−1 di 1 if di−1 di > 03 (C2) mi = w1 di−1 + w2 di 01 if di−1 di ¶ 01 where the weights satisfy w1 = 42li−1 + li 5/434li−1 + li 55 and w2 = 1 − w1 . (ii) The derivatives at two endpoints of the whole domain, m1 and mn are if q1 d1 < 03 01 m1 = 3d1 1 if q1 d1 ¾ 01 d1 d2 < 0 and q1 > 3d1 3 q1 1 otherwise1 (C3) and 01 3d 1 n mn = q2 1 if q2 dn−1 < 03 if q2 dn−1 ¾ 01 dn−1 dn−2 < 0 and q2 > 3dn−1 3 otherwise, (C4) where q1 = 42l1 + l2 5d1 − l1 d2 l1 + l2 q2 = 42ln−1 + ln−2 5dn−1 − ln−1 dn−2 0 ln−1 + ln−2 and Now we apply the curve fitting approach to determine the inverse function S −1 4t5 from the assessments. From Table 1, we relabel t and S4t5 to get the six points: 40027651 00551 40039721 00651 40052531 00751 40066411 00851 40081891 00951 411 150 Abbas and Sun: Multiattribute Utility Functions Satisfying Mutual Preferential Independence 393 Operations Research 63(2), pp. 378–393, © 2015 INFORMS We calculate the interior derivatives m2 , m3 , m4 , and m5 from (C2). For example, l1 = x2 − x1 = 003972 − 002765 = 001207 and l2 = x3 − x2 = 005253 − 003972 = 0012810 Downloaded from informs.org by [128.125.124.9] on 29 April 2015, at 16:04 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Furthermore, the slopes in these two intervals are d1 = y2 − y1 006 − 005 = = 008285 x2 − x1 001207 d2 = y3 − y2 007 − 006 = = 0078060 x3 − x2 001281 and From (C2), the weights for m2 are w1 = 2l1 + l2 2 × 001207 + 001381 = = 004950 34l1 + l2 5 3 × 4001207 + 0013815 and w2 = 1 − w1 = 0050500 Substituting w1 , w2 , d1 , and d2 into (C2) gives m2 = d1 d2 008285 × 007806 = w1 d1 + w2 d2 004950 × 008285 + 0005050 × 007806 = 0080410 Similarly, m3 = 007497, m4 = 006819, m5 = 005966. Calculate the derivatives at the two endpoints x1 = 002765 and x6 = 1. Note that q1 = 442l1 + l2 5d1 − l1 d2 5/4l1 + l2 5 = 008517 < 3d1 , m1 = q1 = 0085170 Similarly, m6 = q2 = 0050160 Substituting the derivatives mi , i = 11 0 0 0 1 6 into (C1) and rearranging it gives the fitting curve of S −1 4t5 in the form of a piecewise polynomial over 60027651 17 as −000814t 3 −00115t 2 +00934t +0025231 t ∈ 600241003673 −004533t 3 −204151t 2 +006889t +0028931 t ∈ 60036100573 −004828t 3 −00617t 2 +005013t +0033641 S −1 4t5 = t ∈ 60051006573 3 −005626t +009761t 2 +001297t +0044811 t ∈ 600651008173 −001868t 3 +002472t 2 +005675t +0037211 t ∈ 600811170 The values of composite function S 4−25 4t5 are obtained by applying S −1 4t5 twice. For example, S 4−25 40055 = S −1 4S −1 400555 = S −1 4008085 = 008114. References Abbas AE (2009) Multiattribute utility copulas. Oper. Res. 57(6): 1367–1383. Abbas AE (2011) The multiattribute utility tree. Decision Anal. 8(3): 180–205. Abbas AE (2013) Utility copula functions matching all boundary assessments. Oper. 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Comm. Statist.-Theory Meth. 25(7):1659–1676. von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ). Ali E. Abbas is professor of industrial and systems engineering and public policy at the Viterbi School of Engineering and Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California. He is also director of the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE). His research focuses on decision analysis, risk analysis, multiattribute utility theory, and data-based decision making. Dr. Abbas is a recipient of multiple awards from the National Science Foundation including the National Science Foundation CAREER Award in 2008. He is also widely published in books, journals, and conference publications, and has shared his expertise through television appearances, TEDx, and other invited talks. Zhengwei Sun is a lecturer in the department of management science and engineering, East China University of Science and Technology. He received his Ph.D. in industrial engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, where he was also a postdoctoral research associate. His research interests include value of information, Bayesian updating, and utility theory.
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