Public Opinion and Political
Socialization
10
Zhang Jun/Newscom
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
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Pearson Education, Inc.
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10.1
Public Opinion
 What the public thinks about a particular
issue at a particular time.
 Short term
 Changes rapidly
 Can be measured
 Public opinion polling then is the
thermometer by which opinions are
measured.
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
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Earliest Public Opinion Research
10.1
 Polling to predict winner of elections (1824 –
PA newspaper)
 Polling to discover public opinions
 Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion – call to learn more about
what the public thinks.
 Wrote a book observing public opinion was limited in spite of its
importance
 Literary Digest Magazine (1916)
 Straw poll pioneer though unscientific
 Unsuccessfully predicted Landon over FDR in 1936. Sample,
timing (too early) and self-selection errors (highly motivated
sent cards back)
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
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Pearson Education, Inc.
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The Gallup Organization
10.1
 George Gallup
 Founder of modern day polling
 Correctly predicted results of 36’ election
 Expanded research to study public opinion about
politics and gave his newspaper clients a money-back
guarantee that his predictions were more accurate
than Literary Digest.
 1940’s led to increased use of polling,
sophistication and polling firms
 http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Designing the Survey & Sample
10.2
 Determining the content and phrasing of the
questions
 Wording is crucial as questions can have bias
 "Push polls“ unscientific designed to change your opinion by
providing negative information about a candidate that might
cause you to vote against them
 Selecting the sample
 Population – entire group to be measured
 Random sampling – equal chance of being selected
problematic because not every area is the same
 Stratified sampling – researchers divide population into
several sampling regions.
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Contacting Respondents
10.2
 Telephone polls
 Most frequent
 Random digit dialing survey most common type
 Tracking Polls – daily phone surveys to monitor impact
of short-term campaign strategies
 In-person interviews
 Exit polls
 High rate of completion
 Can measure body language
 Internet polls
 Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.2
Analyzing the Data
 Reveals implications for public policy
and political campaigns
 Data analyzed by computers
 Subgroups of population, such as men versus women,
age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed
 Reporting the data
 News organizations or campaigns
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Shortcomings of Polling

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Survey Error
Limited Response Options
Lack of Information
Difficulty Measuring Intensity
Lack of Interest in Political Issues
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.3
10.3
Survey Error
 Margin of error
 Natural errors in statistical measurement
 Sampling error
 Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Limited Respondent Options
 Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove)
 May not give respondents sufficient room to answer
 "Feeling thermometer"
 Respondents rate feelings 0—100
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.3
10.3
Lack of Information
 Filter questions
 Gauge how much respondents know about or have
thought about an issue
 Responses to personal questions/moral
value questions
 Feelings stronger about some issues
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
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Difficulty Measuring Intensity
 Issues with strong feelings, such as:
 Big government
 Death penalty
 Support for the war on terrorism
 Smaller issues, such as:
 Electoral College
 Absentee ballot laws
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
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10.3
Lack of Interest in Political
Issues
 Many people lack an opinion on certain
policies.
 Policies that do not affect people directly
 Policies that do not involve moral values
 Foreign policy
 Less likely to generate interest
 Domestic policy
 More likely to generate interest
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.3
Forming Political Opinions
Political Socialization
 Political Socialization
 The process through which people acquire their political beliefs and
values
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Demographic Characteristics
Family, Peers, and School
The Mass Media
Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
Political Knowledge
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.4
Demographic Characteristics
 Gender
 Women historically more liberal than men
 Race and Ethnicity
 Differences among and within races and ethnicities
 Age - From birth to 5 our parents have
the greatest influence in our political
behavior as adults
 Religion – one of the best indicators of
public opinion
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.4
Family, Peers, and School
 Family influence
 Children learn political beliefs at an early age.
 Peers are influential in middle or high
school
 Political socialization in school
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.4
10.4
The Mass Media
 Traditional news sources
 Americans are turning away from them.
 Non-traditional news media



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TV talk shows
Talk radio
Online magazines
Blogs
 Cable and Internet
 Often skewed
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Cues from Leaders or Opinion
Makers
 Political leaders use media to influence
public.
 President uses media as a “bully pulpit.”
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.4
10.4
Political Knowledge
 Political knowledge and political
participation
 Have a reciprocal effect on each other
 Americans' level of civic knowledge
 Lower than 50 years ago
 Gender gap
 Also affected by education, number of children, and
marital status
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Toward Reform: The Effects of
Public Opinion on Politics
 The public has become more of a critical
player in national and international
politics.
 Polling a key part of that involvement.
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update, 12e
O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus
Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011
Pearson Education, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
10.5