TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Results from 2018 Preliminary Reasonable
Progress Modeling
Gail Tonnesen, University of California, Riverside
Ralph Morris, ENVIRON Corporation Int., Novato, CA
Zac Adelman, University of North Carolina
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO, June 19, 2007
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Topics
•
Comparison of emissions changes:
–
•
PRP18a, Base18b and Plan02c
Comparison of CMAQ visibility results:
–
–
–
PRP18a versus Base18b CMAQ spatial plots
for PM species.
visibility projections for PRP18a & Base18b.
PRP18a versus Plan02c CMAQ spatial plots
for PM species.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress Case
PRP18 version A
•
Data Sources:
–
–
WRAP info is from the states.
some changes in other RPOs are error
corrections and adding new data sets.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Updates in PRP18, not yet addressed in Plan02
modeling analysis
• Some errors and differences from the Plan02c case have been
corrected in the PRP18 case
• Those same types of changes will need to be included in the
next, final round of 2002 (Plan02d) modeling:
– Expanded list of fugitive dust sources - moved these emissions from the
area to the fugitive dust sector, this move creates a net change of zero.
These changes are related to transport factors and the PM10/PM2.5 ratio.
– Inclusion of Phase III 1999 Mexico inventories (whole nation of MX
now has emissions) and update of Mexican spatial surrogates
– Addition of Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic shipping lanes’ emissions
– Correction of Elemental Carbon and Organic Aerosol double-counting in
the WRAP mobile source sector – this lowers EC, OA, and PMfine
emissions in the WRAP states
– Area source fire emissions were double-counted in the CENRAP region,
lowers CENRAP emissions
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Domain Total Emissions Comparison
Total WRAP Annual Emissions
Simulation Comarisons
35000000
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
30000000
tons/yr
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
CO
NOX
VOC
NH3
SO2
PM10
PM2_5
PMC
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
WRAP States Total Emissions Comparison
Total WRAP Annual Emissions
Simulation Comarisons
35000000
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
30000000
tons/yr
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
CO
NOX
VOC
NH3
SO2
PM10
PM2_5
PMC
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PM2.5 Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total PM2.5 Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Offshore Shipping
Plan02c
Base18b
Prp18a
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
(tons/yr)
500000
600000
700000
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PM2.5 State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total PM2.5 Emissions
350000
300000
250000
200000
tons/yr
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
150000
100000
50000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NOx Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total NOx Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Offshore Shipping
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
(tons/yr)
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NOx State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total NOx Emissions
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
tons/yr
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
600000
400000
200000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
SO2 Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total SO2 Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Offshore Shipping
Plan02c
Base18b
Prp18a
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
(tons/yr)
600000
700000
800000
900000
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
SO2 State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total SO2 Emissions
180000
160000
140000
tons/yr
120000
100000
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NH3 Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total NH3 Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Offshore Shipping
Plan02c
Base18b
Prp18a
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
(tons/yr)
600000
700000
800000
900000
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NH3 State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total NH3 Emissions
250000
200000
150000
tons/yr
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
100000
50000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
VOC Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total VOC Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Offshore Shipping
Plan02c
Base18b
Prp18a
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 18000000 20000000
(tons/yr)
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
VOC State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total VOC Emissions
6000000
5000000
tons/yr
4000000
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PCM Emissions Comparison by Source Category
WRAP Annual Total PMC Emissions
Ag Ammonia
Plan02c
Base18b
Prp18a
Offshore Shipping
Offshore Platforms
Wind-Blown Dust
Fugitive Dust
Road Dust
WOG
Biogenic
Onroad
Non Road
Point
Area
Fires
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
(tons/yr)
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PMC State Total Emissions Comparison
WRAP Annual Total PMC Emissions
400000
350000
300000
tons/yr
250000
Plan02c
Base18b
PRP18a
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Emissions Comparison
• PAVE QA plots comparing PRP18a vs. Base18b:
– red colors showed increased emissions in PRP18a
– blue colors showed reduced emissions in PRP18a
• Additional emissions QA and visibility modeling plots
available at RMC website:
www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NO Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
SO2 Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NH3 Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
EC Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
VOC Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PMFINE Annual emissions difference PRP18a - Base18b
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PRP18a vs. Base18b
CMAQ Results Comparison
• PAVE plots comparing:
– Plots show change in conc, PRP18a minus Base18b.
– Blue colors show area with lower mass in PRP18a.
– Annual average change shown here, monthly
average changes are available on webpage.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Sulfate Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Nitrate Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Ammonium Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
NH3 Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
OC Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
EC Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Soil Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
PMFINE Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Ozone Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Base18b
Coarse Matter Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Visibility Projections
• Visibility projections calculated using new
IMPROVE equation for two cases:
– PRP18a & Base18b (previously used old equation)
– dot plots show % deciviews of progress goal
achieved.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
EPA Specific Day method: Predictions for Colorado Plateau
and Desert Southwest sites (% dcv goal)
100%
base18b new
90%
prp18a new
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Colorado Plateau
Desert Southwest
WHPE1
WHIT1
SIAN1
SAGU1
SACR1
IKBA1
GRSA1
GICL1
CHIR1
BOAP1
BAND1
ZION1
WEMI1
SAPE1
MEVE1
GRCA2
CANY1
0%
BRCA1
Percent of target reduction achieved
80%
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
EPA Specific Day method: Predictions for North, Great
Basin and Rockies sites (% dcv goal)
100%
base18b new
90%
prp18a new
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
North
Great Basin
Rockies
YELL2
WHRI1
ROMO1
NOAB1
BRID1
SAWT1
JARB1
CRMO1
WICA1
ULBE1
THRO1
SULA1
MONT1
MELA1
LOST1
GAMO1
CABI1
0%
BADL1
Percent of target reduction achieved
80%
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
EPA Specific Day method: Predictions for Pacific Northwest
and California sites (% dcv goal)
200%
base18b new
180%
prp18a new
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Pacific Northwest
California
YOSE1
SAGO1
SAGA1
REDW1
PINN1
LAVO1
JOSH1
HOOV1
DOME1
BLIS1
AGTI1
WHPA1
THSI1
STAR1
SNPA1
PASA1
OLYM1
NOCA1
MORA1
MOHO1
KALM1
0%
HECA1
Percent of target reduction achieved
160%
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Bar Plots of change in visibility
• Available for all sites show PM component
changes in bext:
– PRP18a vs Plan02c
– Base18b vs Plan02c
– PRP18a vs Base18b
• These plots show change weighted by RRF.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at Colorado Plateau sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
40%
30%
Percent change in bEXT
20%
10%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
BRCA1
CANY1
GRCA2
MEVE1
SAPE1
WEMI1
IMPROVE site
ZION1
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at Desert Southwest sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
200%
Percent change in bEXT
150%
100%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
BAND1
BOAP1
CHIR1
GICL1
GRSA1
IKBA1
IMPROVE site
SACR1
SAGU1
SIAN1
WHIT1
WHPE1
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at Northern sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
30%
20%
Percent change in bEXT
10%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
BADL1
CABI1
GAMO1
LOST1
MELA1
MONT1
IMPROVE site
SULA1
THRO1
ULBE1
WICA1
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at Great Basin & Rockies sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
30%
20%
Percent change in bEXT
10%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
CRMO1
JARB1
SAWT1
BRID1
NOAB1
ROMO1
IMPROVE site
WHRI1
YELL2
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at Pacific Northwest sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
10%
0%
Percent change in bEXT
-10%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
HECA1
KALM1
MOHO1
MORA1
NOCA1
OLYM1
IMPROVE site
PASA1
SNPA1
STAR1
THSI1
WHPA1
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Percent change in extinction components from 2002 baseline to 2018 projected
at California sites using prp18a/plan02c RRFs
60%
40%
Percent change in bEXT
20%
bSO4
bNO3
bOC
bEC
bSOIL
bCM
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
AGTI1
BLIS1
DOME1
HOOV1
JOSH1
LAVO1
IMPROVE site
PINN1
REDW1
SAGA1
SAGO1
YOSE1
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PRP18a vs. Plan02c
Emissions Comparison
• PAVE QA plots comparing PRP18a vs. Plan02c:
– red colors showed increased emissions in PRP18a
– blue colors showed reduced emissions in PRP18a
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NO Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
SO2 Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
NH3 Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
EC Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
VOC Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
PMFINE Annual emissions difference PRP18a – Plann02c
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Results Comparison
• PAVE plots comparing PRP18a vs. Plan02:
– Plots show change in conc as PRP18a minus Plan02c
– Blue colors show area with lower mass in PRP18a.
– Annual average change shown here, monthly
average changes are available on webpage.
– coarse material is not being used
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Sulfate Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Nitrate Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Ammonium Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
NH3 Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
OC Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
EC Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Soil Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Total PM2.5 Annual Average change
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
CMAQ Difference Plots PRP18a minus Plan02c
Ozone change
July Average
Annual Average
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Conclusions
• PRP18a shows improvement in achieving
visibility goals compared to Base18b at most
sites: reductions in SOx NOx emissions.
• Some sites have worse visibility in PRP18a
than in Base18b because of dust projections.
• Most IMPROVE sites are at less than 60% of
visibility goal in PRP18a.
TSS Meeting, Denver, CO 7/19/2007
Next Steps
• Planned revisions to PRP18a:
– Final RP19 early 2008.
– fix all known emissions projection errors.
• Final Plan02d run correcting same errors.
• Optional model studies during 2007:
– Sensitivity simulations with emissions reductions?
– Do a new “model floor” simulation with all
anthropogenic emissions zeroed out?