Joint Probability Distributions Definition 1 The joint probability distribution function (pdf) of a couple of random variables X and Y is defined by: pdf discrete P (X = m, Y = n) XX P (X = m, Y = n) = 1 n Z Z f (x, y)dxdy = 1 R m R Z Z X P ((X, Y ) ∈ A) continuous f (x, y) P (X = m, Y = n) f (x, y)dxdy A (m,n)∈A ¦ Example 1 A coin is tossed 4 times. Let X be the number of heads in the first toss, and Y be the number of heads in the 4 tosses. Find the joint pdf of (X, Y ). 4 Example 2 Let (X, Y ) be a couple random of variable with pdf f (x, y) = cxy , 0 < x < y < 1 Find the value of the constant c, and find P (XY < 1/2). 4 Definition 2 The marginal pdf of X and Y are defined by X P (X = m, Y = n) , and discrete case: P (X = m) = n P (Y = n) = X P (X = m, Y = n) m Z Z continuous case: g(x) = f (x, y) dy , and h(y) = R f (x, y) dx ¦ R Proposition 1 Two random variables X and Y are independent if and only if: discrete case: P (X = m, Y = n) = P (X = m) × P (Y = n) for all m and n continuous case: f (x, y) = g(x) × h(y) ¤ Example 3 Find the marginal pdf in examples 1 and 2. 4 Example 4 (Trinomial distribution) An urn contains 3 red balls, 3 white balls, and 4 blue balls. 15 balls are selected at random and with replacement form the urn. Let X be the number of red balls, and Y be the number of white balls among the 15 selected. Find the joint pdf of (X, Y ), then find the marginal pdf of X and Y . 4 1 1 Transformation of Couples of Random Variables Let (X, Y ) be a couple of random variables with joint pdf f (x, y), and let U = g(X, Y ), and V = h(X, Y ). question: what is the joint pdf of the couple (U, V )? Example 5 Let X and Y be a couple of random variables with joint pdf f (x, y) = 2 , 0 < x < y < 1 Let U = X/Y and V = Y , find the joint pdf of the couple (U, V ). Are U and V independent. 4 Proposition 2 k(u, v) = |J(u, v)| × f (l(u, v), m(u, v)) ¤ Example 6 Let X and Y be independent χ2 (2) distributions. Find the joint pdf of U = X + Y and V = X − Y , then find the marginal pdf of V . solving the system of equations yields ¯ ¯ x= ¯ 1 1 ¯ ¯ 2 2 ¯ the Jacobian is J(u, v) = ¯ 1 ¯ = − 12 ¯ −1 ¯ 2 and hence g(u, v) = u+v 2 and y = u−v 2 2 1 −u/2 e 8 0≤u+v ≤∞ , 0≤u−v ≤∞ v Z u h(u) = −u k(v) = 6 1 −u/2 1 e dv = u e−u/2 8 4 0 < u < +∞ Z +∞ 1 −u/2 1 e du = ev/2 −v 8 4 Z +∞ v v=u R −∞<v <0 1 −u/2 1 e du = e−v/2 8 4 - u o < v < +∞ v = −u 4 question: Let (X, Y ) be a couple of random variables with joint pdf f (x, y). How to find the pdf of U = g(X, Y ) ? Exercise 1 Let X and Y be a couple of random variables with pdf f (x, y) = 1 x≥1, y≥1 x2 y 2 Find the joint pdf of U = XY and V = X/Y . Find the marginal pdf of U and V . 2 pu √ solving the system of equations yields x = uv and y = v ¯ ¯ √ √ u ¯ ¯ √v √ ¯ ¯ 2 u 2 v ¯=−1 the Jacobian is J(u, v) = ¯¯ √ 2v u ¯ 1 ¯ 2√uv − 2v√v ¯ and hence g(u, v) = Z u h(u) = 1 u k(v) = 1 2u2 v uv ≥ 1 , v iu ln u 1 1 h = dv = ln v 1 2u2 v 2u2 u2 u Z +∞ 1 1 du = 2 1/v 2u v 2 Z +∞ v u ≥1 v u≥1 0≤v≤1 1 1 du = 2 2 2u v 2v v=u 1 6v = u ... ... ... ... . 1 v≥1 R - u 5 Fisher distribution: Let X1 , X2 be two independent chi-square random variables with r1 and r2 degrees of freedom, respectively. Let Y1 = (X1 /r1 )/(X2 /r2 ) and Y2 = X2 . Find the joint pdf of Y1 and Y2 , then find the marginal pdf of Y1 . f (x1 , x2 ) = r1 r 1 −1 22 −1 − x1 +x2 2 x x e 2 2 Γ(r1 /2)Γ(r2 /2)2(r1 +r2 )/2 1 solving the system of equations yields x1 = ¯ r ¯ ¯ 1 y2 r1 y1 ¯ ¯ r ¯ r2 the Jacobian is J(y1 , y2 ) = ¯ 2 ¯= ¯ 0 1 ¯ 0 < x1 < ∞ , 0 < x2 < ∞ r1 r2 y1 y2 , and x2 = y2 r1 r2 y2 and hence ³ ´r1 /2 g(y1 , y2 ) = r1 r2 r1 −1 2 Γ(r1 /2)Γ(r2 /2)2(r1 +r2 )/2 y1 is the pdf of the couple (Y1 , Y2 ) ³ ´r1 /2 r1 r2 r1 −1 2 Z r1 r + 22 −1 2 y2 ∞ − e r1 r + 22 −1 2 ( rr12 y1 +1) y2 2 − ( rr12 y1 +1) y2 2 y2 h(y1 ) = y e Γ(r1 /2)Γ(r2 /2)2(r1 +r2 )/2 1 0 Z ∞ x but xα−1 e− θ dx = Γ(α)θα (pdf of a G(α, θ) distribution) 0 by comparison, α = r1 +r2 2 and θ = 2 r1 y +1 r2 1 3 0 < y 1 < ∞ , 0 < y2 < ∞ dy2 r1 −1 r1 r1 /2 Γ((r1 + r2 )/2) y12 hence h(y1 ) = . r1 Γ(r1 /2)Γ(r2 /2) ( r2 y1 + 1)(r1 +r2 )/2 0 < y1 < ∞ (the distribution of Y1 is called Fisher). The Beta distribution: Let X and Y be independent random variables with distriX butions G(α, θ) and G(β, θ) respectively. Let U = X+Y and V = X + Y . Find the joint pdf of the couple (U, V ), then find the marginal pdf of U and V . f (x, y) = 1 xα−1 y β−1 e−(x+y)/θ Γ(α)Γ(β)θα+β 0<x<∞, 0<y<∞ solving the system of equations yields x ¯ ¯ = uv and y = v(1 − u) ¯ v u ¯¯ ¯ the Jacobian is J(u, v) = ¯ ¯=v ¯ −v 1 − u ¯ and hence g(u, v) = Z 1 uα−1 (1 − u)β−1 v α+β−1 e−v/θ α+β Γ(α)Γ(β)θ 0<u<1, 0<v<∞ ∞ 1 uα−1 (1 − u)β−1 v α+β−1 e−v/θ dv Γ(α)Γ(β)θα+β 0 Z uα−1 (1 − u)β−1 ∞ 1 α+β−1 −v/θ v e dv = Γ(α)Γ(β) θα+β 0 h(u) = = Γ(α + β) α−1 u (1 − u)β−1 Γ(α)Γ(β) 0<u<1 U is called Beta distribution with parameters α and β, denoted Beta(α, β) Z 1 1 k(v) = uα−1 (1 − u)β−1 v α+β−1 e−v/θ du α+β Γ(α)Γ(β)θ 0 Z 1 v α+β−1 e−v/θ = uα−1 (1 − u)β−1 du Γ(α)Γ(β)θα+β 0 = v α+β−1 e−v/θ Γ(α)Γ(β) 1 × = v α+β−1 e−v/θ α+β Γ(α)Γ(β)θ Γ(α + β) Γ(α + β)θα+β 0<v<∞ V is then a Gamma distribution with parameters α + β and θ. Proposition 3 If X à G(α, θ), and Y à G(β, θ), and if X and Y are independent, then X have a Beta distribution with parameters α and β. a. X +Y b. Y have a Beta distribution with parameters β and α. X +Y c. X + Y à G(α + β, θ). ¤ 4 2 Several Independent Random Variables Definition 3 If X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are n independent random variables, then P (X1 ∈ B1 ∩ X2 ∈ B2 ∩ . . . ∩ Xn ∈ Bn ) = P (X1 ∈ B1 ) × . . . × P (Xn ∈ Bn ) ¦ Notation: If X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are n independent random variables with the same pdf, then X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn is called a random sample of size n. Property 1 If X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are n independent random variables, and if g1 , g2 , . . . , gn are n functions, then E(g1 (X1 ) × . . . × gn (Xn )) = E(g1 (X1 )) × . . . × E(gn (Xn )) Proof: Z Z Z E(g1 (X1 )×. . .×gn (Xn )) = ... R = ¤ R g1 (x1 )×. . .×gn (xn )×f1 (x1 )×. . .×fn (xn )dx1 . . . dxn R ¡R ¢ ¡R ¢ g (x )f (x )dx . . . g (x )f (x )dx 1 1 1 1 1 n n n n 1 R R = E(g1 (X1 )) × . . . × E(gn (Xn )) Example 7 Let X1 , X2 , X3 be a random sample of size 3 with exponential distribution with parameter λ = 1. Find a) P (0 < X1 < 1, 0 < X2 < 1/2, X3 > 1), b) E(2X12 X3 ) 4 Proposition 4 (distribution of sum of independent random variables) Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be n independent random variables, and let Y = a1 X1 + . . . + an Xn (ai are scalars), then MY (t) = MX1 (a1 t) × . . . × MXn (an t) ¤ Proof: MY (t) = E(etY ) = E(et(a1 X1 +...+an Xn ) ) = E(eta1 X1 × . . . × etan Xn ), hence by property 1, MY (t) = E(eta1 X1 ) × . . . × E(etan Xn ) = MX1 (a1 t) × . . . × MXn (an t) Proposition 5 Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be a random sample of size n, and let Y = X1 + . . . + Xn , then MY (t) = (MX1 (t))n Proof: ¤ simple consequence of proposition 4, with all ai = 1 and MXi are equal. Property 2 If Xi à G(αi ; θ) for i = 1, 2, . . . , n, and if the Xi ’s are independent, then Y = X1 + . . . + Xn à G(α1 + α2 + . . . + αn ; θ) 5 ¤ µ Proof: MY (t) = MX1 (a1 t) × . . . × MXn (an t) = µ = 1 1 − θt 1 1 − θt ¶ α1 µ × ... × 1 1 − θt ¶αn ¶α1 +α2 +...+αn Exercise 2 Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be a random sample of size n with pdf f (x). Find the pdf of Y = max(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ). 5 Solution: We first start by finding G, the cdf of Y , G(y) = P (Y ≤ y) = P (max(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ) ≤ y) = P (X1 ≤ y ∩ . . . ∩ Xn ≤ y) = P (X1 ≤ y) × . . . × P (Xn ≤ y) = (F (y))n , where F is the cdf of Xi Now to find g(y), the pdf Y : - continuous case: g(y) = G0 (y) = ((F (y))n )0 = n × (F (y))n−1 × f (y) , where f is the pdf of Xi - discrete case: P (Y = y) = P (Y ≤ y) − P (Y ≤ y − 1) = (F (y))n − (F (y − 1))n , Exercise 3 Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be a random sample of size n with pdf f (x). Find the pdf of Z = min(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ). 5 6
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