Decisions Gone Wrong – Due to cognitive bias,
group dynamics and organizational structure
Greg Kremer
Ohio University
Prepared: 2009
Based on: The Art of Critical Decision Making
Professor Michael A. Roberto
Decisions go wrong due to cognitive bias – and we
are all biased!
Only seeing things that
confirm your prior
beliefs, even though
contradictory evidence
is also present
Confirmation
Bias
2
Also applies to readily
accepting things that
support the decision
you want, rather than
being open to the
evidence that might
lead to a better unbiased decision
Decisions go wrong due to cognitive bias – and we
are all biased!
We treat 90% of the
information we process
as facts
BUT
Only 10% of that
information is factual
[Ref: Lambert, Is what I’m saying
what you are really hearing]
3
Opinions
= facts
Perceptions = facts
Anecdotal = facts
evidence
Our job as
decision makers is to
FACT CHECK
Decisions go wrong due to group errors
If no single person is
responsible for a
decision,
groups take more
unsubstantiated risks
4
Lack of a feeling of
individual
accountability yields
more reckless
behavior
Individuals sometimes
‘follow the crowd’
instead of thinking
through a decision
Decisions go wrong due to bad habits and
underestimating the consequences
Who cares about bad
decisions for lowpriority or lowimportance issues?
5
We usually do not know
the real consequences of
our decisions
beforehand…
We are what we
repeatedly do.
[Aristotle]
Most catastrophic
decisions were
preceded by a string of
bad decisions of lower
consequences – bad
decision process
becomes a habit.
Decisions are processes, not events, and they
determine our future – let’s pay attention.
Be aware of your biases and
the external factors that
influence decisions
Make the effort to make
good decisions
6
The Art of
Critical Decision
Making
Questions?