The Canadian Election: A Post-Mortem
Presented by:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid Corporation
To the:
Woodrow Wilson Center
Tuesday, July 13, 2004
Washington, D.C.
Overview…
Preface…Some History…
Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien Beats Paul Martin
For The Federal Liberal Leadership In 1990 and Goes On
To Win Three Back-To-Back Majority Governments…
Gilles Duceppe Elected 1990, Becomes Bloc Leader in
1997…
Over Time, Those Loyal To Mr. Martin Take Over The Party
and Essentially Put Mr. Chrétien On Notice in 2002…
3
Preface…Some History…
Former Toronto Councilor Jack Layton Becomes Leader of
The New Democratic Party in January 2003…
Mr. Martin Becomes Liberal Leader and Prime Minister in
December 2003…
Stephen Harper (PC ’85, Reform ’87, 2002 Alliance)
Becomes New Leader Of The Conservative Party With
Former PC Leader Peter McKay Chosen as Deputy
Leader…A 17 Year Circle…
4
Important Elements Towards The
Campaign Outcome…
Roughly 39%-41% Will Get You A Majority Government…
In Public Opinion, Paul Martin And Liberals Inherited A
Majority Government With Support Pre-Convention at
46%…Post Convention 43%…
New Merged Conservative Party Accomplishes Stop To
“Alliance/PC Vote Splitting”…
Throne Speech Feb 2, 2004…
Auditor General Report Feb 10, 2004:
Sponsorship/Advertising Scandal Begins…Parliamentary
Committee Activated…Independent Judicial Committee
Appointed…
Federal Budget March 23, 2004…
5
Important Elements Towards The
Campaign Outcome…
Arrests Made…And Cleverly Linked…
Former PM and PC Leader Joe Clark Endorses Martin,
Not Harper as “The Devil You Know…”
Ontario Provincial Budget May 18, 2004… “Deserve To
Re-Elected” Drops From 36% to 29%…
Writ Dropped May 23, 2004… “401 Election”…
Post Debate Conservatives Stumble…And Again On The
Final Weekend…Attack Ads Concentrate On Ontario…
Sunday June 27 Switchers And Election June 28, 2004:
Minority Government…
6
Briefly…
Liberal Support Was Soft…Need About 41% To Form A
Majority Government…Governing Party Often Loses About
5 Points During A Campaign…
Paul Martin Talked About The “Democratic Deficit”, Ran As
An “Outsider” As Leadership Candidate, Became “Mad As
Hell” With The Sponsorship Scandal And “Owned It”…
Martin Asks For Choice: “Which Kind Of Canada Do You
Want?”…Choice Between Conservative Pro-U.S.,
Healthcare Hidden Agenda And Service Reducing Tax
Cuts or…
Liberals To Protect Medicare, Restore Trust and Integrity,
Support Cities/Protect Citizens In Charter of Rights…
Ballot: Trust Them With Your Money and Pledge Vs. Trust
Them With Your Values…
7
Sponsorship Scandal Severely Damaged Liberals In Quebec—
Also Unpopular Provincial Liberal Government…
Scandal Plagues Martin: Can You Believe What He Says? Gives
Drive To “Demand Better” Conservative Campaign…
Focus On Ontario…Where Provincial Budget Angers
Voters…Violates Trust (Broken Promises/Residual of
Sponsorship Program)…
Gaffes By Conservatives: “Hidden Agenda Label” (Abortion,
Courts, Premier Klein on Healthcare, Air Canada Bilingualism);
Personal Attack on Martin re Pornography (“Personal and
Extreme”), And Boasting of Majority (With “Transition Team”),
“West Back In Drivers Seat”..Withering Attack Ads In Ontario In
Final Days…
All Help to Push About 225,000 Last Minute Ontario Voters To
Support Liberals (Switchers)…Liberals Save 20-25 Seats There
and 10 In Montreal…
8
Briefly…
Not Much Change in The Numbers Overall Except In Wary
Ontario And Federalist Montreal Both Who Showed Up At
The Last Minute…
Liberals Went From 165 to135 Seats (155 Needed For
Majority)…Conservatives From 73 to 99, Bloc From 33 to
54, NDP From 14 to 19…1 Independent…
9th Minority Since 1921, Last In 1979…Of the Previous 8,
Length Averages 18 Months and 7/8 Have Presiding PM
Get Majority Next…
9
The Set Up…
Party Strengths: Predictable
Demographics…
Conservatives
NDP

Rural


College/technical
Middle-aged and older
Male
More affluent



Female
B.Q.

Less affluent

Francophones
Liberals
Green Party

Urban

18-34 years of age

University educated
18-34 years of age
More affluent

$30-60K


11
The
Conservatives…
Core Conservatives: Likelihood of Voting
for a NEW MERGED Conservative Party
of Canada…
80%
Very
70%
60%
50%
41%
40%
30%
20%
25%
17%
17%
16%
18%
16%
21%
23%
11%
10%
11%
6%
0%
Total
BC
AB
SK/MN
REGION
ON
PQ
ATL
18-34
35-54
AGE
55+
Male
Female
GENDER
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative
Party of Canada. Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to
vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada in the next federal election?
13
Soft Tory’s: Likelihood of Voting for a NEW
MERGED Conservative Party of Canada…
Very
80%
Somewhat
70%
63%
60%
22%
50%
40%
44%
47%
44%
39%
43%
37%
36%
19%
30%
22%
28%
20%
26%
39%
36%
22%
31%
42%
20%
21%
25%
25%
41%
20%
20%
10%
25%
17%
17%
16%
16%
6%
18%
21%
23%
11%
11%
0%
Total
BC
AB
SK/MN
REGION
ON
PQ
ATL
18-34
35-54
AGE
55+
Male
Female
GENDER
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative Party of Canada.
Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to vote for the new Conservative
Party of Canada in the next federal election?
14
Likelihood of voting for a NEW MERGED
Conservative Party of Canada…
Very
80%
Somewhat
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
45%
39%
42%
44%
41%
38%
39%
37%
22%
19%
17%
19%
$30-60K
$60K+
34%
26%
22%
43%
27%
21%
27%
22%
30%
18%
20%
10%
17%
16%
18%
Total
Urban
Rural
14%
16%
<HS
HS
19%
16%
14%
Univ
<$30K
0%
REGION TYPE
Post sec
EDUCATION
INCOME
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative Party of Canada.
Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to vote for the new Conservative Party of
Canada in the next federal election?
15
“The New Conservative Party Is Just The Alliance Taking
Over The Progressive Conservative Party And They’ll Have
The Same Problems Attracting Voters In Ontario And
Quebec That They Had Before.”
Agree
28%
Strongly
Disagree
10%
Strongly
68%
39%
Somewhat
16%
26%
Somewhat
6%
DK/Refused
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
I’d like to know if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement….
16
The Liberals…
Federal Parties’ Popular Support Levels
(1997 Election – November 2003)…
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Other*
50%
40%
35%
30%
27%
20%
17%
11%
10%
9%
0%
June
'97
Mar
'01
Oct
'01
Mar
'02
Jul
'02
Nov'
02
Apr
'03
Oct
'03
Nov
'03
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be
most likely to support?”
*As of December 2002, the Green Party was offered to respondents as an aided option. Thus the current 9% other mentions consists of 6% who chose the Green Party.
18
Social Issues, Not Economic Issues,
Rule The Attention Agenda...
Economic
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
100
95
Int'l/Terrorism
93
73
54
Social
85
79
82
75
83
83
73
48
49
45
Jan-00 July '00 Jan-01 Oct-01
41
3835
41
36
82
77
76
74
33
32
31
32
28
69
59
49
89
38
41
28
30
77
57
44
25
26
25
33
26
33
30
31
27
19
Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep '02 Nov '02 Jan-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 Apr-04
Sept ‘03 (n=1,000, data collected on the Ipsos-Reid Express)
Economic = Taxes 6%, Jobs 5%, Economy 10%, Debt&Deficit 10%
Social = Health 42%, Education 18%, Poverty 6%, Environment 7%, Crime 4%
Unity = National Unity & Quebec/West 2%
International/Terrorism = Terrorism 13%, Immigration 3%, Military 6%, International Issues 5%
“Net total responses to the question “What issues should receive the greatest attention from Canada’s leaders?”
19
Opinions of Paul Martin Just Before The AG’s
Report Showed He Was In The Right Range For
Potential Majority Support…. But No
“MartinMania”…
Gives me hope about the future
61%
Understands my part of the country
56%
Doesn't represent a change
56%
Will run a more ethical government
Should get rid of gun registry
Has a good plan for healthcare
55%
52%
48%
Doing better job than Chretien
47%
Should allow same sex marriage
47%
Note: January 15th
20
The Polls…
Most Important Issue For The Election
Campaign…Healthcare Most Visible…Trust
Visceral…
30%
Healthcare/Medicare
11%
Government/Politics/Political leadership
7%
Economy (General)
Deficit/Debt/Government spending
6%
Taxes/Tax reform/GST
6%
Education
6%
Environment
3%
Sponsorship Scandal
2%
Jobs/Unemployment
2%
15%
Other
None are important
CIRE
May 11-13 & 14-17, 2004
DN/Refused
3%
9%
N=2004
And, what for you personally, is the most important issue in the federal election campaign?
22
The Top-line At The End of The Campaign
Appeared Too Close To Call…That Was 5 Days
Before The Vote…
50
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
Green Party
Conservative Party of Canada
Bloc Quebecois
40
32
31
(Percentage of respondents)
30
20
17
12
10
6
0
2004
Feb10- Feb17- Mar2-7 Mar23- Apr6-8 Apr27- May4-6 May7- May18- May28- Jun1-3 Jun4-8 Jun11- Jun18- Jun2112
19
25
28
13
20
30
13
20
23
“Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?”
23
But, On Election Day, Using Actual
Comparative Results, Ontario And
Quebec (Montreal) Were Key…
Region:
Source:
NATIONAL
BC
I-R *
Act +
Var
I-R **
32
31
17
12
6
36.7
29.6
15.7
12.4
4.3
4.7
1.4
1.3
.4
1.7
25
38
26
8
Alberta
Sask/Man
Ontario
Quebec
Var
I-R
Act ++
Var
I-R
28.6 3.6
36.2 1.8
26.6 .6
20 22
2
59 61.6 2.6
11 9.5 1.5
32
36
25
30.2
40.6
23.4
2.2
4.6
1.6
38 44.7 6.7
34 31.5 2.5
20 18.1 1.9
6.4
6
5
2.7
2.3
6
Act
Var
I-R
Act
Act
Var
Atlantic
Var
I-R
Act ++
Var
29 33.9 4.9
9 8.8 .2
5 4.6 .4
48 48.8 .8
5 3.2 1.8
44
23
26
46.2
30.5
19.8
2.2
7.5
6.2
7
3.1
3.9
I-R
Act
Party:
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
BQ
Green
Margin of
Error
± 2.2
1.6
± 3.5
6.2
.2
± 7.1
± 10
4.5
± 3.8
1.5
± 4.5
± 8.2
Notes:
*
Final release Friday, June 25, 2004. Polling conducted Monday, June 21 – Wednesday, June 23, 2004. 2,000 Sample. Margin of error: ±2.2
**
Final Release, Friday, June 25, 2004. Polling conducted Monday, June 21 – Wednesday, June 23, 2004. 800 Sample. Margin of error: ±3.5
+
Elections Canada results as at Wednesday, June 30, 2004.
++ Elections Canada results as at Wednesday, June 30, 2004. Regional Average.
24
With Last Minute Voters In Ontario
Crucial To The Victory…Overnight
Tracking, Ontario, End of Campaign…
ONTARIO RESPONDENTS
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
June 21 June 22
June 23
June 24 June 25 June 26 June 27
DECIDED VOTER (Leaners Included)
31%
37%
30%
The Liberals
37%
35%
42%
The New Democratic Party
22%
21%
19%
The Green Party
6%
5%
8%
Other party
3%
2%
1%
NO INTERVIEWS
The Conservative Party
36%
36%
31%
35%
36%
47%
17%
22%
17%
6%
6%
4%
6%
0%
1%
25
Overnight Tracking, Ontario, End of
Campaign…
60%
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
Other
Conservative Party of Canada
Green Party
47%
42%
40%
37%
22%
6%
3%
0%
6/21/2004
30%
21%
19%
No Interviews
31%
20%
36%
37%
35%
8%
5%
2%
1%
6/22/2004
6/23/2004
35%
36%
31%
22%
17%
6%
6%
6/24/2004
36%
6/25/2004
17%
6%
0%
6/26/2004
4%
1%
6/27/2004
26
The Outcome…
Actual Seats Won…Liberal Minority…
Canada’s Only “National Party”…
BRITISH COLUMBIA
ALBERTA
SASKATCHEWAN
MANITOBA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK
NOVA SCOTIA
PEI
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
NEWFOUNDLAND
TOTAL
LIBERAL
8
2
1
3
75
21
7
6
4
3
5
135
CONSERVATIVE
22
26
13
7
24
0
2
3
0
0
0
99
NDP
5
0
0
4
7
0
1
2
0
0
0
19
BQ
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
54
28
Actual Seats Won…Seen Another Way
With The Impact of Ontario and
Quebec…
160
140
135
Liberal
Conservative
NDP
BQ
120
100
99
75
80
60
54
54
40
20
19
22
8 5
26
24
13
2
1
7
3 4
7
MN
ON
21
7
21
63
2
4
3
5
0
TOTAL
BC
AB
(Provinces/Territories)
SK
PQ
NB
NS
PEI
NVT,
NWT,
YUKON
NFLD
29
Preferred Minority-Led Government…
“Anybody But The Bloc”…
A Liberal-led minority government supported
by the NDP
56%
A liberal-led minority government supported
by the Conservatives
52%
A Conservative-led minority government
supported by the Liberals
48%
A Conservative-led minority government
supported by the NDP
A Liberal-led minority government supported
by the Bloc Quebecois
A Conservative-led minority government
supported by the Bloc Quebecois
47%
31%
28%
CIRE
June 21-23, 2004
N=2004
30
Going Forward…
Going Forward…
Message Or Mandate? First Stage of An Ouster or First Stage of
Conditional Renewal?
No “MartinMania”…The Scandal Had An Impact But Disappointment
In Him Too…6.7 Points In Ontario The Other Way and This Would
Have Been A Different Story…A Default Vote…
Martin Will Select His New Cabinet Next Week (By July 19)…A Mix
of Newcomers and Steadfast Ministers, Regionally
Attuned…Healing…
What Is The Agenda?
Healthcare Meeting July 28-30th…
Conservative Policy Convention Put Off Until Spring…
Not Likely Another Election For Two Years…But, It Is A Minority…
Case By Case: Missile Defense: Lib/Con?
32
Going Forward…
Bloc: Referendum a “Provincial Issue”…Next Quebec Election
Likely 2006…Voting On Quebec’s Interests…Federal Staffing
Money Used To Help PQ in Quebec Defeat Charest?
Harper and Conservatives: More Progressive? Opportunity To
Show Him and His Troops, Especially In Ontario, Not Demons…
With 24 Seats in Ontario Two Years Critical To Fashion New Party
Persona, Make Inroads In Quebec…It’s Not About Uniting The
Right It’s About Uniting The Center…And Being A True
Alternative…
Liberals: Can You Trust Them With Your Money And Do The Get
The “Integrity Thing”? Conservatives: Can You Trust them With
Your Values?…Conservatives and Health Care?
NDP: Influence Expectation Diminished But Still A Player…Health,
Cities…Influence More Intellectual Than Political…
33
Going Forward…
The U.S.: Negative Attitudes Not About Americans—It’s
About The Bush Administration…
Martin Has To Tread Carefully: Remember Two Parties
That Can Defeat The Government Are Hostile Towards
The U.S.: The NDP (Openly) and The Bloc
(Conditionally)…
Martin Also Needs Some Movement: The NAFTA Musings/
Softwood Lumber/Mad Cow…
G-20
Canadians Will Watch US Election Closely…Kerry
Protectionism?
New Ambassador…???
34
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