UNCLASSIFIED
Anticipatory Intelligence Research
and Development at IARPA
Briefing is UNCLASSIFIED
30 June, 2016
INTELLIGENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS ACTIVITY (IARPA)
UNCLASSIFIED
1
UNCLASSIFIED
IARPA Supports Anticipatory
Intelligence with Programs that …
• Systematically and broadly analyze data, trends,
events and changing conditions;
• Generate forecasts that identify and characterize future
discontinuities and significant events in
–
–
–
–
–
science and technology (S&T)
social, political, and economic crises
epidemiology and biosecurity
counterintelligence, cybersecurity
emerging and rare events
• Communicate these forecasts effectively;
• Continuously assess performance (e.g. accuracy, false
alarm rates, timeliness).
INTELLIGENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS ACTIVITY (IARPA)
UNCLASSIFIED
2
UNCLASSIFIED
Anticipatory Intelligence
“Detecting and Forecasting Significant Events”
S&T
Intelligence
Indications &
Warning
Strategic
Forecasting
Detecting and forecasting
the emergence of new
technical capabilities.
Early warning of social and
economic crises, disease
outbreaks, insider threats,
and cyber attacks.
Probabilistic forecasts of
major geopolitical trends
and rare events.
INTELLIGENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS ACTIVITY (IARPA)
UNCLASSIFIED
3
UNCLASSIFIED
Positive Attention
Forecasters Turn to the Wisdom of the Crowd
THE NUMBERS | By Jo Craven McGinty
>200 papers published
in peer-reviewed
venues
INTELLIGENCE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS ACTIVITY (IARPA)
UNCLASSIFIED
4