6/2/2015
MYANMAR’S FIRST NATIONAL
SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY:
A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR
MYANMAR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES
Cristina Roccella
OVERALL POVERTY PICTURE
Population heavily clustered around the poverty line
Poverty is higher in rural areas
Poverty is geographically distinct by region
Risks differ by life stage
Poverty is associated with levels of education and health status
Many non-income vulnerabilities exist (e.g., children outside of family care)
Poverty is correlated with household size
There is a high risk of shocks such as disasters
Poverty is affected by low returns to work, not so much work availability
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ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
 Output growth rose 8 ¼ percent in FY ‘13/’14
 Inflation has stabilized at 6% year on year (April 2014)
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


Stable exchange rate since the 2013 depreciation
Current account deficit (5 ¼%) fully financed by FDI, loans and other inflows
IMF assesses Myanmar is at low risk of debt distress
Government expenditure is roughly 28% of GDP
Favorable economic outlook:
 Growth projected at 8 /14% in the next few years due to gas
production and investment
 One-off revenues will bring headline deficit to 4 ½% of GDP
Overall, Myanmar’s current and projected economic performance is broadly
conducive to more investment in the social sectors through a mix of
reallocation and budget increases –
a Golden opportunity for social investments
Source: IMF 2014 Article IV consultation
CURRENT SYSTEM
Expenditures (%GDP)
Number and
scope of
programmes
extremely limited
for country this
size
Much lower
spending than
other Asian
countries, even
when adjusted for
GDP
Some social
insurance
programs through
Social Security
Board
Many
programmes
supported by
NGOs and
Government
needs to stand on
its own
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
% GDP
2
FINAL DRAFTING (Oct
14) AND ENDORSEMENT
(Dec 14)
TECHNICAL SUPPORT
GROUP POLICY
WORKSHOP (Sept 14)
(May-Sept 14)
ABND WORKSHOPS
TRAINING SESSION ON
INTERNATIONAL
EXPERIENCES (Apr 14)
NATIONWIDE
INVENTORY (Jan-Mar 14)
STRATEGY LAUNCH
WORKSHOP (Jan 14)
ASEAN DECLARATION ON
STRENGTHENING SOCIAL
PROTECTION Oct 13)
FRAMEWORK FOR
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
REFORM (Jan 13)
2012 SP CONFERENCE
6/2/2015
THE PROCESS OF STRATEGY PREPARATION
SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY MASTERPLAN:
TIMELINE AND ACTIVITIES
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6/2/2015
CRITERIA USED FOR STRATEGY PREPARATION
Complements and
supports Myanmar’s
poverty reduction and
economic growth
strategies
Addresses the different
risks and vulnerabilities
across the life cycle
Highlights most costeffective programmes in
reaching the poor and
vulnerable
Takes a universal and
equitable approach
Adopts a holistic
approach recognizing the
diverse and complex risks
and vulnerabilities facing
individuals and families
Includes a ‘peoplecentered’ approach that
reflects Myanmar’s social
norms
Highlights evidencebased approaches
Includes policy and
programme designs that
are child and gender
sensitive
Adopts a flexible and
adaptive approach so
that social protection can
be modified and
strengthened over time
WHY A UNIVERSAL APPROACH?
 Assessing income and means across all of Myanmar would require enormous resources
 80% of the population is clustered near the poverty line, so those resources would be
chasing a small minority of people
 It is very difficult to assess income and means, and many poor and vulnerable would be
excluded and well off included, leading to inequity and social tension
 The very well off ‘self-target,’ meaning they are not likely to queue in line for a benefit of
the sizes proposed in the Strategy
 As Myanmar’s economy grows, and more graduate to middle and higher income,
targeting can be introduced
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6/2/2015
MYANMAR’S SOCIAL PROTECTION STRATEGY: SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR ALL
DEFINITION OF SOCIAL PROTECTION
(MYANMAR STRATEGY)
Social protection includes policies, legal instruments,
programmes, benefits and services for individuals and
households that prevent and alleviate economic and
social vulnerabilities, promote access to essential
services and infrastructure and economic opportunity,
and facilitate the ability to better manage and cope
with shocks that arise from humanitarian
emergencies and/or sudden loss of income.
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6/2/2015
THE RECOMMENDED CORE INTERVENTIONS
(FLAGSHIPS) FOR SP ACROSS THE LIFE CYCLE
Early
childhood/mate
rnity
Universal
benefit to
pregnant
mothers and
children 0-2
Disability
allowance 0-18
School age
Universal child
allowance age 3-18
School feeding
program
Working age
Old age
Public works
programme -
Social pensions
Vocational
education and
training
Older Person Self
Help Groups
Work safety and
preparedness
Allowance for
people with
disabilities (18
plus)
FOCUS ON CHILDREN
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FLAGSHIP: MATERNITY AND CHILD BENEFIT
Objective: To provide expecting mothers and young children with additional
resources they can use to provide for their basic needs, including nutritional
needs and access to available services.
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
Cash benefit from last 6 months of pregnancy to 2 years
Lead Agency/Provider
MSWRR
Phasing
2015: All pregnant mothers (last six months); 2016:
Pregnant mothers plus children to age 1; 2017: Pregnant
mothers plus children to age 2
Benefit duration
Maximum 30 months (depending on sequencing)
Benefit level and type
Cash benefit of 15,000 Kyats/month
Conditionality
Soft: midwife visits, ANC checkups, nutrition awareness
Universal or targeted
Universal (all pregnant mothers)
Geographic scope
Entire country
Number of beneficiaries
848,000 in 2015, 2,281,000 in 2017
Projected cost
0.14% GDP (2015), 0.32% GDP (2024)
FLAGSHIP: ALLOWANCE FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES
FLAGSHIP: ALLOWANCE FOR
PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES
Objective: To support the well-being of all those with disabilities, and to support
their access to services that promote all-round development and their best interests,
especially during childhood
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
Cash benefit to all with disabilities
Lead Agency/Provider
MSWRR, Ministry of Home Affairs, MoE, MoH, Ministry
of Population/development, township child rights
committees, CSOs, UN agencies, etc.
Phasing
Launch 2016 once certification system developed by
DSW
Benefit duration
Through older age
Benefit level and type
Cash benefit of 16,000 Kyats/month for child, 30,000
Kyats/month adult.
Conditionality
All certified with disabilities
Universal or targeted
Universal
Geographic scope
Entire country
Cost
0.30% GDP (2016)
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6/2/2015
FLAGSHIP: CASH ALLOWANCE FOR CHILDREN
AGES 3-15
Objective: To support families in providing services that promote all around
children’s development and the best interests of the child
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
Every caregiver of a child from 3-15 receives allowance
Lead Agency/Provider
MSWRR, implementers (local authorities, social workers,
MWCWA, other ministries
Phasing
Launching after maternity and child benefit IN 2018 and
phasing in one year of age each year
Benefit duration
Through age 15 (depending on phasing)
Benefit level and type
Cash benefit of MMK 8,000/month
Conditionality
All children registered in national registration system
Universal or targeted
Universal
Geographic scope
Entire country
Number of beneficiaries
11 million when fully implemented
Costs
0,98% of GDP when fully phased in
FLAGSHIP: SCHOOL FEEDING
PROGRAMME
Objective: To increase enrollment rates, reduce dropout and regularize
attendance, and to strengthen the learning capacity of children
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
One cooked meal per day per child in all schools
Lead Agency/Provider
Ministry of Education (primary/secondary), MSWRR (preschools). Implemented by local governments, PTAs, WFP,
UNICEF, NGOs, CSOs
Phasing
Progressive start with schools with low net enrollment in
highly food insecure areas
Benefit duration
Throughout school enrollment
Benefit level and type
In-kind, cost about 350 Kyats per child
Conditionality
Government schools
Contributory or not?
Non-contributory at first, will explore in-kind and/or cash
contributions once well established
Universal or targeted
Universal
Geographic scope
See ‘phasing’ above
Number of beneficiaries
9.2 million by 2019
Cost
0.6% of GDP when extended to all schools
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6/2/2015
OTHER IMPORTANT FLAGSHIP PROGRAMMES
FLAGSHIP: PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT and
VET PROGRAMME
Objective: To offer wage employment opportunities in local work to poor
households to enhance the quality of their environment and their income
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
Local works, seasonal, off season, early recovery from
disasters and disaster preparedness, short term (repair
works, village maintenance, environmental works).
Lead Agency/Provider
MLFRD and MOLES, and state/region, other ministries,
NGO/INGO/UN
Phasing
Select 2-3 states/regions at first
Benefit duration
60 days/year
Benefit level and type
3,000 Kyats/day
Conditionality
Self-identify
Universal or targeted
Targeted but self-identify
Contributory or not?
Non-contributory
Geographic scope
Cover country by 2020
Number of beneficiaries
About 6 million by 2020
Cost
About 1.7% of GDP by 2024
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6/2/2015
FLAGSHIP: SOCIAL PENSION
Objective: Income security for all people of older ages. Families who care for
those of older ages will also benefit from the income that will be available to
meet their needs.
Parameter
Recommendation
Description
Cash benefit to those 65 and over
Lead Agency/Provider
MSWRR/DSW, Ministry of Finance, state and regional
authorities
Phasing
Launch 2015
Benefit duration
Through end of life
Benefit level and type
Cash benefit of 25,000 Kyats/month
Conditionality
All adults of eligible age (65+).
Universal or targeted
Universal
Geographic scope
Entire country
Number of beneficiaries
About 3.5 million by 2019
Cost
1.39% of GDP
PROJECTED IMPACT OF THREE CORE BENEFITS
(UNICEF calculations)
Summary of 3 Core Social Protection Interventions
Benefit
Description
Estimated
number of
beneficiaries
First 1000
days
allowance
(maternity
and children
0-2)
Monthly
allowance of
MMK 15,000
from last 6
months of
pregnancy to
age 2
Child
allowance
from 3 to 15
years
Monthly
12 million
allowance of
MMK 8,000
(phases in
from age 3-15 from 2018)
0.95%
Social
pension
Monthly
allowance of
MMK 25,000
to those over
65+
4.3 million
1.29%
(2024)
(2024)
2.25 million
Estimated cost
(%GDP,
preliminary)
PROJECTED IMPACT WHEN
FULLY IMPLEMENTED
0.14% (2015)
0.44% (2017)
(2024)
Total headcount of poor
(2010 data) falls 49%
Average income gap for poor
to exit poverty falls 65%
Income inequality falls
6%
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6/2/2015
PROJECTED IMPACT OF THREE CORE BENEFITS
(initial calculations, UNICEF)
Summary of 3 Core Social Protection Interventions
Benefit
First 1000 days
allowance
(maternity and
children 0-2)
Description
Estimated cost (%GDP,
preliminary)
Monthly allowance
0.14% (2015)
of MMK 15,000 from
last 6 months of
0.44% (2017)
pregnancy to age 2
Estimated poverty
reduction (%)
- 1.7% (minimum)
Child allowance
from 3 to 15
years
Monthly allowance
of MMK 8,000 from
age 3-15
0.95% (2024)
- 7.6% (minimum)
Social pension
Monthly allowance
of MMK 25,000 to
those over 65+
1.29% (2024)
- 4.6% (minimum)
The large majority of
families living in
poverty have
children
BUILDING A SYSTEM: INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SERVICES
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INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS
 Address social and economic needs of the most vulnerable groups;
 Assess the needs of individuals, families and communities;
 Coordinate interventions from different services through a multi-sectoral approach;
 Ensure coordination with civil society, community based organisations and charities;
 Involve a professional cadre of social workers, trained on case management and
referral practices and equipped with the resources needed to deliver effective
support to those in need; and
 Ensure one entry point for citizens in need of social protection
FLAGSHIP: INTEGRATED SOCIAL PROTECTION
SERVICES
Objective: To assess and respond to the social needs of venerable groups,
responding to the multiple dimensions of vulnerabilities and coordinating
interventions
Parameter
Recommendation
Oversight responsibility
MSWRR
Other sectors represented
Health, education, rural development, labour,
Home affairs (GAD, Police), finance, population and
immigration, justice. Civil society fully involved
How programmes
coordinated
Committees are set up at national, state, district and township
level (linked with the TDSC)
Protocols of cooperation established between services,
defining roles and responsibilities
Other
Target 6,000 social workers and 330 Centres over 5 years
Cost
0,02% of GDP
This programme will include the design of a
one entry-point for social protection, with specifications on how to provide and collect
information (MIS), how to manage cases, how to ensure referral mechanisms, manage
programme and resources
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BUILDING A SYSTEM: DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL PROTECTION
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
DRM addresses
people’s risks to
natural hazards
SP aims to increase
community
resilience by
targeting social and
economic
vulnerabilities of
poor families
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ISPS AND DRM
Use the existing social protection
system (network of social workers,
electronic database, cash and in-kind
transfer mechanisms) to reach disaster
affected populations with relief
assistance in the aftermath of a
disaster; and
Use the ISPS system to disseminate
disaster risk information and increase
the capacity of the most vulnerable to
prepare, respond and cope with
disasters.
PROJECTED COSTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION FLAGSHIPS
2015
Intervention
Lead
Agency
% GDP
2016
MMK
(millions)
Maternity and child
allowance to age 2
MSWRR
0.14%103,311
Disability allowance
MSWRR
0.00%
Child allowance ages 3-15
MSWRR
0.00%
%GDP
2024
(projected
)
2017
MMK
(millions
)
%GDP
MMK
(mil)
0.33%275,886
0.44%415,062
0.24%197,621
0.31%297,648
0.00%
0.00%
%GDP
Notes
Assumes phased in per
Strategy (pregnant women,
0.32% then 1, then 2
MOE
0.25%183,771
0.47%385,752
0.64%605,332
Starts in 2016, assumes
0.43% 100% coverage
Would begin in 2018,
assumes full coverage by
0.95% 2024
Assumes 20% schools in
2015, same increases in
0.61% later years
Public employment/VET
MRDFL
0.61%437,049
1.13%931,491
1.57%1,484,187
Assumes 20% coverage, 60
1.71% days work/training
Social pension
MSWRR
1.59%1,145,430
1,193,40
1.44% 0
1.32%1,249,560
Assumes 100% covered,
1.30% 65+
Older person self help group MSWRR
0.00%1,000
0.00%1,500
0.00%2,000
0.00%
Integrated social protection
services
0.01%3,768
0.01%6,907
0.01%10,409
Investment costs for each
centre (MMK 1.5 million)
0.01% should be added
3.63%2,992,557
4.30%4,064,198
School feeding
TOTAL
MSWRR
2.60%
-
0
1,874,329
0
0
5.33%
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6/2/2015
WHAT CAN EVERYBODY DO TO PROMOTE INCREASED
SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES?
Options for support in 2015
Funding the strategy:
Look into options to channel additional resources for the
implementation of flagship programmes
Creation of a social protection system in Myanmar:
Promote the idea of having an integrated system in the country, with
one-entry point (single window) in each township, and a coordinated
referral mechanism for social protection programmes (with the
involvement of case managers)
Lobbying for children:
Increase the focus on how new reforms and laws passed are going to
have an impact on children (in terms of benefits and risks)
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6/2/2015
The Golden opportunity for Myanmar children is now
Tremendous opportunities ahead…
to improve life conditions and access to
opportunities for children and families in Myanmar
Thank you
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