What’s Rush Got to Do With
Obama?
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The Limbaugh Effect
• Did Dittoheads save Hillary’s Campaign
• March 4th, Texas her ‘Alamo’
– Bill said a ‘must win state’
• Clinton ‘won’ TX by 100,000 votes out of
2,820,000
• Texas an open primary
The Limbaugh Effect
• Rush, on March 3rd, tells 13 million
listeners ‘hold their noses’ and vote
HRC
• Dallas Morning News also reported
rumors of efforts
• Bill O’Reilly mentioned it on Fox
The Limbaugh Effect
• Limbaugh:
– “We need to sustain this soap opera”
– “we need Barack Obama bloodied up
politically”
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic cross-over voting
– Sincere
– Malicious, “raiding”
• When might voters engage in strategic
voting?
• Did Limbaugh, et al affect level of
strategic voting?
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Requires a fairly sophisticated voted,
and:
– information about election outcomes
– incentive to maximize effect of vote
– institutional rules that facilitate action
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Information
– Ample polling information
– GOP race known to be irrelevant
– Obama ahead in national Dem polls
– Head-to-head polls show Obama stronger
vs. McCain than Clinton vs. McCain
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Incentives
– would a dedicated Republican care enough
to cross-over?
– how many cross-over for sincere reasons
(like Ann Coulter, they really like Clinton)?
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Institutions
– what barriers?
– what penalties?
• does voter lose ability to participate in other
GOP contests?
• does voter need to re-register?
The Limbaugh Effect
• Strategic Cross-over voting
• Institutions
– Old WA Blanket Primary said to be a ‘perfect
setting’ to facilitate cross-over voting
– What about new ‘top two’ primary?
The Limbaugh Effect
• Cross-over Voting
• What do we know?
• Most studies show cross-over is sincere
– Support for popular incumbents in WA, CA
• Parties claim it exists
– Dixie Lee Ray (but she won)
The Limbaugh Effect
• Evidence of cross-over voting in 2008
Democratic primaries?
• Exit Polls (which, suck...but forget that)
The Limbaugh Effect
• Evidence
• Trends in GOP participation in
Democratic primaries / caucuses
• Trends in support for Clinton among
Republicans participating in Dem events
The Limbaugh Effect
• Hypothesis
• If strategic cross-over voting exists, we
should see more Republicans
participating in Democratic events as
McCain locks up nomination
The Limbaugh Effect
• Hypothesis
• If cross-over voting is malicious,
Republican support for Clinton should
increase as McCain locks up GOP
nomination
The Limbaugh Effect
Proportion of Republicans Participating in Dem Events
through June 3rd, 2008
The Limbaugh Effect
Ratio of Republican support of Obama to Clinton
The Limbaugh Effect
• Evidence
• In early events, 3% of voters were
Republican
– they voted 70% Obama, 30% Clinton
• On March 4th, 9% of voters were
Republican
– they voted 50% Obama, 50% Clinton
The Limbaugh Effect
• Explanations:
• 1) Clinton changed her style, went on
attack, which appealed to more
Republicans....and targeted GOP voters
• 2) TX, MS, IN Republicans more likely
to be excited by HRC than Republicans
in other states
The Limbaugh Effect
• Explanations
• 3) Gradual trend where some GOP
voters saw their vote had more effect on
Democratic side
– strategic? yes.
– hard to tell if sincere or malicious
• hedging
The Limbaugh Effect
• Evidence
• Average of about 4% GOP share in
Democratic electorate
– Each event = 0.5% greater GOP share of
Democratic electorate
– Open primary = 1.2% greater GOP share
– NO CLEAR LIMBAUGH EFFECT
The Limbaugh Effect
• Evidence
• Average ratio of GOP support Obama to
Clinton = 2.1 to 1
– each event = 0.2% decrease in Obama’s
edge over Clinton among Republicans
– each 1% increase in McCain’s lead = 0.1%
decline in Obama among Republicans