Demographic, Social and
Economic Trends in Ukraine
and their Impact on
Educational Enrolment
Institute for Demography and Social Studies, National Academy
of Sciences of Ukraine,
Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms
Ella Libanova, Larysa Lisogor, Pavlo Shevchuk, Oxana
Khmelevskaya, Iryna Rodicheva
Demographic analysis of School Enrolment
Dynamics in Ukraine

Project: Demographic Forecast for Projections of
School Enrolment

Period of study: October, 2009 - February, 2010

Sources of data: Data of State Statistics
Committee of Ukraine, Ministry of Education and
Science, Comprehensive Demographic Projection
in Ukraine up to 2050
The role of demographic projections for
development of the long- and medium-term
education strategies
Demographic projections for pupil in 0-29 age group provide a reliable
estimate of future pupil enrolment in primary education (ISCED 1) and
lower secondary education (ISCED 2). It might be used for planning of
the number of human and material resources required for the efficient
performance of education system

The data on the number and age structure of the population make a
basis for estimation of trends in:
enrolment ratio (by levels of education)
revenues and education expenditures (state, local, individual)
“educational loan” system introduction
optimization of educational network (teaching staff, financial
resources, state request for specialists)
Non-sufficient attention to the problems of demographic potential
worsening during previous period might considerably complicate the
possibilities to anticipate demographic perspectives in the sphere of
education

As comes from the conducted analysis, the main
demographic assumptions for prospective
educational enrolment are:
Key result from our analysis 
large loss of demographic potential caused by population decline due to:

Shrinkage of the demographic basis for providing of possible enrolment
(influence of sharp reduction of the total number of population, low birth
rates)

Age structure of population (low share of 0-29 aged cohorts) as one of the
main obstacles for sustainable replenishment of contingent for educational
institutions

Possibilities of “birth rates” fluctuations (entrance or exit of “Baby boom”
cycle’s representatives)

Pupil’s probabilities for survival to a certain age with educational transition
and without educational transition

Age limitation of access to education Significant migration out-flows as a
main obstacle for human capital improvement

Regional and area disproportions in enrolment
Structure of population in Ukraine by sex, age and
education level (Census 2001 data)
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0,9
0,6
Primary
Post-secondary
0,3
0,0
Lower secondary
non-tertiary
0,3
0,6
Upper secondary
Tertiary 5A, 5B
0,9
Main demographic challenges for
education in Ukraine


Demographic trends within the 0-29 age range
reflect the fall in the birth rate recorded in
Ukraine since 1995. The annual average rates of
reduction in the number of births between 1990
and 2001 (Census data) were 5.5% for urban
area and 3.8% - for rural area, while crude birth
rate annually decreased in 1990s by 5.0%, on the
average, in urban area and by 3.0% in rural area.
Significant decline in the compulsory school age
population was a result of population ageing, low
birth rates, widespread standards of small
families
The number of people 0-29 aged has been steadily
decreasing, and the proportion of young people in the
total population varies substantially from one region
to the next
A tough decade has just ended!
40% fewer children age 7-16
8,000,000
7,500,000
7,000,000
Student
6,500,000
6,000,000
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
Actual data
Source: UN World Population Prospects (2008
Revision, Medium Variant Forecast)
Forecast
Population 7-16
Population projections for 0-9, 10-19, 20-29
age group, 2010-2020
0-9

3000
10-19
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
0
medium scenario
high scenario
low scenario
20-29

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
200
9
201
1
201
3
201
5
201
7
201
9

medium scenario
high scenario
low scenario
medium scenario
low scenario
high scenario
Methodology of demographic forecast by
educational levels




Combination of cohort-component demographic
forecast and multi-status forecast
Forecast of components (levels of birth-rate, death
rate, intensity and directions of migrations) based on
expert estimations, methods of analogies,
mathematical models and different types of
extrapolations
Using of matrices of age-specific coefficients
(transition probabilities)
Multi-status method is combined by a possibility of
transition from one educational group to another
As resulted from the study there is a probability of
transition between levels of education
complete secondary
(10th-11(12th)
forms)
no complete
secondary (9th form)
vocational
school
І-ІІ accreditation
level education
institution
Bachelor’s
programme
Master’s
programme
Age of the most intensive transitions between
educational levels (according to study result)
Primary
education
Lower and upper
secondary
education
Post-secondary
education
Non-tertiary
education
Bachelor
Master
Primary education
Х
17–18 (19)
18–20
19–21
Х
Х
Lower and upper
secondary education
Х
Х
19–21
20–22
21–24
Х
Post-secondary education
Х
Х
Х
20–22
22–25
Х
Non-tertiary education
Х
Х
Х
Х
22–25
Х
Tertiary education (5A, 5B)
Х
Х
Х
Х
Х
22–26
Hypothesis of Demographic Projections
As comes from the study each variant of
enrolment education projection (by
different types of educational institutions)
is based on the relevant scenario of multivariant demographic forecast in Ukraine.
Presented study was based on such
assumptions:
-
-
-
-
Fluctuations of the number of 0-29 age group population
(increase or decrease), age structure of population
Necessity to provide educational standards (class size,
teacher/pupil ratio, infrastructure development)
Educational reform implementation, shift in enrolment
due to transition to 12-years schooling program
(enrolment failure in 2012), introduction of External
Independent Estimation (EIE)
Decentralization of vocational education, optimization of
educational institution’s network
Different scenarios of possible enrolment in
various types of educational institutions
High scenario
Increase of enrolment as a result of the increase of 0-9 age group
share (primary education), 10-15 age group (secondary education),
16-19 age group (post-secondary and non-tertiary) as a result of
birth rates increase with relevant decrease of mortality rates (for 019 years), increase of in-flow migration growth
Possibilities of transition between educational levels – and as a result –
increase of secondary education enrolment, post-secondary and
non-tertiary enrolment
Efficiency of educational reforms, relevant capacities for widening of
the educational network
Needs of resource optimization (material, labour, financial)
Introduction of innovative methods of schooling
Different scenarios of possible enrolment in
various types of educational institutions (cont.)
Medium scenario
Domination of negative or positive tendencies
 Existence of demographic depth (6-23 age cohort
decline) stipulates the reduction of entrance to primary
and secondary education
 Regional differences, low territorial mobility limited
possibilities for post secondary education enrolment
 Educational reforms – has a dual effect on secondary
education enrolment : 1) improvement of educational
management, 2) limit the possibilities for transition
between educational levels (EIE)
 Financial constraints complicate the development of
educational institutions
Different scenarios of possible enrolment in
various types of educational institutions (cont.)
Low scenario
Prevalence of negative tendencies
 Decline in the number of 0-29 aged population during
pre-crisis period– and as a result – decline in secondary
education enrolment, weak incentives for skills
development and increase of educational level (post
secondary)
 Increase of the non-productive exit from one education
level to another without skills improvement
 Significant regional differentiation
 Significant out-flow migration in productive age
Primary education enrolment projections
600
thousands
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
high variant
2014
2015
2016
low variant
2017
2018
2019
medium variant
2020
As resulted from the study:



Tendencies of primary education enrolment
strongly depends from demographic indications
(in case of sharp decrease of 0-9 age group the
possibilities of future improvement of human
capital are limited)
According to results of projections of primary
education enrolment the possible fall of its level
in 2015 might not be so significant because of
birth rates increase during past 4 years (partly as
a result of governmental support of maternity).
But absence of effective policy making in future
might stipulates the further birth rate reduction
Changing of the role of primary education as a
sphere of basic skill’s preparation
Secondary education enrolment projections
450
400
thousands
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
high variant
2014
2015
2016
low variant
2017
2018
2019
medium variant
2020
Projections of secondary education
enrolment indicates about possibilities of
its significant drop in 2012 as a result of
introduction of 12-years schooling.
Absence of graduate’s issue from
secondary educational establishment leads
to educational gap. It foresees the
narrowing of the possibilities for entering
of successful graduates to non-tertiary
educational establishment (because of
double press in 2013).
Post-secondary and non-tertiary education
enrolment projections
300
thousand
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
High scenario
2014
2015
2016
Low scenario
2017
2018
2019
Middle scenario
2020


Possibilities for post-secondary and nontertiary education enrolment are limited as
a result of weak incentives to education in
these establishments, their poor
governance and material equipment. At
the same tightening of the demands to the
results of EIE might stipulate the increase
of the number of students.
As for tertiary education it’s necessary to
note not only excessive “tertiaryzation” of
education but also objective reasons for
its development. But possibilities of its
widening are quite limited by the
capacities of economy.
Tertiary education enrolment projections
140
120
thousand
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
High scenario
2014
2015
2016
Low scenario
2017
2018
2019
Middle scenario
2020
Tertiary education enrolment rates
in 1999 and 2007, %
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
36,0
B ulgaria
42,1
49,6
30,3
55,0
38,1
L atvia
48,9
34,5
L ithuania
80,0
48,0
E s tonia
Hungary
70,0
44,9
26,0
C z ec h R epublic
60,0
59,5
1999
37,8
P oland
R omania
20,9
50,1
24,9
S lovakia
40,3
44,7
S lovenia
C yprus
Malta
Ukraine
2007
56,0
18,7
69,6
36,3
18,5
27,5
44,0
68,3
Education enrolment: Challenges and
Perspectives
Globalization leads to the stage-by-stage
“tertiarization” of education in Ukraine
Demographic side
 Contraction of demographic basis for total
enrolment growth, from one hand, and
possibilities for its replenishment due to in-flow
migration (emigrants), from other hand
 Entrance on educational market representatives
of “baby boom” age cohorts
Educational side
 “Basic-skills orientation” of education leads to the
limitation of possibilities for life-long learning in
Ukraine

Education enrolment: Challenges and
Perspectives (cont.)


Possibilities of entrant’s redistribution by different educational
levels as a result of introduction of secondary school graduate’s
testing (in the form of external independent estimations)
Weak career guide
Institutional gap




Poor governance of education system and as a result – weak
coordination between educational institutions and employers
Abstention of employers, non-governmental sector and other
stakeholders in design of curricula and training programs
Low quality of the infrastructure of post-secondary educational
establishments leads to the demotivation of school graduates to
post-secondary education enrolment
Limited capabilities for development of adult education and as a
result - contracted entrance of 25+ age-group population to
training and skills development.
Conclusions-1
As comes from the conducted study for sustainable development of education system it’s
necessary to provide demographic basis for human capital improvement, to take into
consideration demographic perspectives. Demographic trends within the 0-29 age
range reflect the fall in the birth rate recorded in most European countries. At the
same time demographic circles have an serious impact on education sphere.

The demographic basis for future education enrolment depends on tendencies
inherited from previous period of time (significant reduction of the number of
population aged 0-29 corresponds to a decline within each constituent age group)

As resulted from the study the reduction of the total number of 6-23 aged cohort of
population as a result of demographic “cavity” (entering of fewer number of
entrants).

At the same time the strengthening of the positive tendencies in the demographic
sphere during last years based on “demographic circles” leads to the not so
significant but increase of birth rates. And it determines the slowing of depopulation
process, and possibilities for increase of the total number of pupils in the sphere of
education. Despite of respectively tertiary, non-tertiary and post-secondary
enrolment the number of entrants to educational institutions of different types will be
inevitably decrease. Released vacant places might be filled by foreign students or
reduced.

It’s not necessarily for 16-18 aged persons to receive a tertiary education (despite of
fewer number than number of entrants in 2004-2006)

Educational reform (introduction of EIE) might lead to the changes of educational
trends (nearly 10% of entrants to tertiary establishments have no possibility to enter
them because of low results)

Potential replacement of general compulsory military service with contract military
service may cause reduction in tertiary education’s coverage of males in future
decade

Globalization stipulates the possibilities for secondary school graduates to enter
foreign colleges and universities, and leads to the possible weakening of entrant’s
competition for entering to Ukrainian educational institutions
Conclusions-2
+



Acceleration of technology’s development stipulates
necessity of skills improvement, and as a result – leads to
the increase of probabilities for tertiary enrolment for 30+
aged population.
According to “high” variant of projection the increase of
probabilities for boosting of educational level for
representatives of junior aged groups will be possible. It’ll
be stipulated by necessity of using of accumulated
capacities (teaching staff, material infrastructure).
Strengthening of competition between educational
institutions, stricter attestation’s requirements and thus
loss of licenses by some institutions might stipulate the
reduction of their number
Policy Recommendations
As a result the demographic basis for future education enrolment might be significantly
cut down. It’s improvement foresees the necessity:

to increase the efficiency of public spending, to optimize resource distribution;

to improve quality of schooling, teaching staff, resource using

to provide the relevance of education and training towards the needs of the economy
and labour market

to create conditions for LLL as a priority of innovative development of education

to improve quality of post secondary and non-tertiary education aimed at adaptation
of the needs of enterprises, to involve of employers to design of curricula

to introduce students loans, family allowances, grants for financial support to the
low-income families (under conditions of financial constraints existence)

to optimize regional distribution of material, finance and human resources.
At the same time it’s necessary to account possible changes of out-flow and in-flow
migration, and their influence on future education enrolment. It foresees needs of
adaptation of non-native pupils of foreign mother tongue to national environment
(allocation of financial resources for special assistance in the form of language
support measures etc).
A tough decade has just ended!
40% fewer children age 7-16: Question and
Answers?
8,000,000
7,500,000
7,000,000
6,500,000
6,000,000
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
Student
Population 7-16