ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4:
THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
AND MIGRATION
Results of the third interim report and towards the final one, Lillehammer May 2004
Lead partner and coordinator:
Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden
Partners:
Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation (FUL), Lisbon
University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna
Universite Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Departement de Geographie, Bruxelles
University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara
Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Reseach (NIBR), Oslo
VÁTI, Hungarian Public Non Profit Company for Regional Development and Town Planning, Budapest
THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION
The third interim report (TIR), March 2004
Points of departure:
FIR
SIR
Addendum
Crete Guidance Paper
Matera Guidance Paper
CU and EC responses
What's new (compared to SIR)?
A general framework (based on the GPG-graph) - A key choice in TIR and to
be developed in FR
Deeper analyses – regression analyses, models, forecasts
Widening of all WPs – new data, new indicators, new typologies
Including social and economic variables (GDP/cap, growth, unemployment,
dependency rates, population density, etc) – A key choice in TIR and
to be developed in FR
More focus on migratory movements and – especially – replacement
migration (typologies, models, estimations, forecasts) – A key choice in
TIR and to be developed in FR
General framework
To analyse the connections between
demographic, economic and social
variables and the demographic impact
(incl migration) on spatial development
both from theoretical and empirical points
of view,
(see the following figure, a ‘variant’ of the
MGP graph)
External factors (incl national
economic policy, values)
Internal factors (e.g. economic and
social conditions, mental maps)
Spatial/regional
development
Age structure
Gender structure and
Marital Status
Migration
TFR
Natural population change
Demographic change and
development
Figure 3.1. Application of the MGP-graph with regard to
demographic change and spatial development
The base typology with regard to total population change, natural
population and net migration
Content and results of TIR – summing-up and towards FR
WP2 Natural population development and ageing
Number of births – a function of TFR and age, gender and martial structure
Fertility development – deeper analysis, both from a theoretical and descriptive point of
view
Longer time-span (since 1960) – General trend: decreasing TFR.
Regional divergence 1960-1980, regional convergence 1980-1999. (Coefficient of variance)
Still: Problems with the temporal comparability – differing regional delimitations. (Especially
EU10 and CC)
Regional differences and temporal fluctuations – short/long term.
FR: Economic and social impacts?
Incomes (GDP/cap), employment, unemployment, (female labour force participation, social
benefits, child care).
Different countries – different family policies
Both descriptive and theoretical approaches. (Cross-section regression analyses? Case
studies) Regional and/or national?
TFR in Northern Europe 1960-2000
Longer time-span
(since 1960)
4,5
4
3,5
General trend:
decreasing TFR.
Regional divergence
1960-1980, regional
convergence 19801999.
3
TFR
2,5
2
1,5
1
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Norway
Sverige
UK
0,5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Still: Problems with
the comparability –
differing regional
definitions. (Especially
EU10 and CC)
Regional differences
and time fluctuations –
short/long term.
Longer time-span
(since 1960) –
General trend:
decreasing TFR.
Regional divergence
1960-1980, regional
convergence 19801999.
Still: Problems with
the comparability –
differing regional
definitions.
(Especially the EU10
and CC)
Regional differences
and time fluctuations
– short/long term.
WP3 Migration
Focus: Migratory balances – still focus on the second half of the 90s.
International migration included – still problem with origin and destination
European growth zones – in-migration
Economic discrepancy still a driving force - but weaker than before
Especially in the Nordic countries and Eastern Europe – movements from peripheral
areas to metropolitan areas are still of great importance
Deeper analysis, economic and social variables are included
(GDP/cap, growth, unemployment)
Typologies based on different age groups
Typology based on mobility (high/low) and net-migration
FR: international aspects (as far as possible), still data problems (gross flows, origin
and destinations on NUTS-levels?),
New values – new migration patterns (a post-industrial migration pattern is emerging)
Table 6.7 Correlation coefficients between the migratory balance and the socio-economic
variables at “NUTS” C level in Western Europe (UE15+Norway and Switzerland)
Socio-economic variable
60s
70s
80s
90s
1997-99
Density
-0.098
-0.418
-0.126
-0.123
-0.314
GNP/inhab.
0.255
-0.174
-0.061
0.108
0.041
Table 6.6: Correlation between the 1996-1999 migratory balances and some socioeconomic
variables
Migratory balance
nuts3
nuts2
0,005
0,201*
GDP/inhabitant 2000
average annual growth (19952000)
Density of population 1999
Unemployment 2000
Number of observations
* the correlation is significant at 0,01 level
0,072
-0,153*
-0,103*
1258
0,235*
-0,030
-0,326*
265
Table 6.8: Correlation between migratory balances by age group and some socioeconomic
variables (265 observations)
Migratory balance 1995-2000
total
GDP/inhabitant 2000
Average annual growth (19952000)
Density of population 1999
Unemployment 2000
Dependency ratio 2000
* The correlation is significant at 0,01 level
17,5-22,5
years
32,5-37,5 years
57,5-62,5 years
*0,20
*0,46
-0,07
*-0,25
*0,24
-0,03
*-0,33
-0,07
0,07
*0,53
-0,15
*-0,41
*0,20
*-0,33
*-0,24
0,13
0,08
*-0,29
-0,02
*0,33
Typology based on
mobility/migration
Migratory balance:
netmig/pop (+/-)
Mobility:
outmig+inmig/pop
WP4: Fertility, migration and depopulation
Depopulation areas – direct and indirect depopulation typologies
Compared to SIR – simplified interpretation (methodological parts)
FR - new typologies will be elaborated:
• urban/rural – a post-industrial migration pattern (cf. 1.1.2)
• rich/poor – different preconditions, new values, new migration pattern
• Deeper analysis of out-migration/low fertility areas, ‘dying out’ regions
- today and tomorrow
• Deeper analysis - social, economic and cultural factors included,
regression analyses (cross-section)
WP5: Ageing, labour shortage and ‘replacement migration’
Four models have been estimated in TIR (NUTS2):
A.
Demographic model without any immigration
B1.
A model to maintain the total population of
today
B2.
A model to maintain the relative size of the
population 16-64 year
B3.
A model to maintain the potential support ratio
(16-64/65+)
C.
Models with variables on the effects of changes in
the relative factor prices will be estimated in FR.
Replacement migration (WP5) - main conclusions
•
Immigration is no long-term solution to the ageing problem.
•
The European immigration need will be more urgent in the New Member
Countries than in the Old Member Countries. The destination of the
immigrants will very soon be on the political agenda.
•
Long-term solutions - e.g. higher labour force participation rates, higher
retirement age, increased fertility rates and improved labour productivity are necessary to deal with the consequences of ageing.
•
The observations of needed immigrant flows for EU15 and EU25 (in a
lesser extent for EU29) show that migratory movements tend to be cyclical
(especially in B3), and that the arrival of migrants in one period will
diminish the need in subsequent periods. (To be explored further in the
FR.)
Net Migration (annual average, per thousand) EU25, 2000-2050
Models B1-B3
Net Migration (annual average, per thousand) EU15, 2000-2050
Models B1-B3
Tentative policy recommendations in TIR – to be developed
•
•
Demographic trends are cohort phenomena – rigidity is imbedded in the system!
But (common recommendations):
•
Close the gap in living conditions (in a wider sense) between regions and nations – symmetrical
migratory flows
•
Stimulate structural transformation of the economy – risk in short run but necessary in the long
•
Better accessibility Stimulate regional enlargement (even across borders) – larger local
labour markets, decreased ’mismatch’, polycentric development
•
To get rid of the labour shortage – stimulate higher female labour force participation (and
replacement migration)
But: Immigration is no long-term solution to the ageing problem
•
Stimulate child care – higher birth rates
•
Don’t hamper mobility – mobility is a lubricant in economic development and transformation
•
Long-term solutions - e.g. higher labour force participation rates, higher retirement age,
increased fertility rates and improved labour productivity - are necessary to deal with the
consequences of ageing
•
An economic, social and regional development policy that stimulate childbearing,
mobility and migration
Challenges (and deliverables) for the final report (FR)
• Complete the data set – still data problem.
Longer time series, cross-section data.
• Add data - refine data
• Refine the indicators
• Economic and social indicators more included
• The impact of values, mental maps, social (family)
policies more explicitly discussed
• Develop and refine the typologies
• The temporal dimension - more pronounced
• A dynamic approach – processes explicitly analysed
• Replacement migration (ageing, labour shortage) - more
explicitly analysed
• Economic and social implications 
• More explicit policy recommendations
End of the show – thanks for your attention!