Hypothetical Harvest Model to Consider in Addressing ODF Financial Viability Issues (Reflects Discussion with Senior ODF Staff on 7/26/2013)
Harvest Level Potential on the Astoria, Forest Grove & Tillamook Districts Utilizing a Modified Conventional Forest Management Approach -- 60 Year Rotation
Prepared by Dave Ivanoff of Hampton Resources, Inc. (Hampton)
A. Land Base:
500,000 Acres
B. Estimated Current Timber Inventory:
(Note: From ODF - January 2013)
10,800,000 MBF (10.8 Billion Board Ft.)
C. ODF Estimated Annual Growth Rate Under a Conventional Management Approach (From Discussion with ODF Staff on 7/26/2013)
(Note: Hampton believes the preponderance of older age classes, history of heavy thinnings, and continued presence of Swiss Needle Cast in certain areas
all contribute to lower growth rates on ODF lands when compared to growth rates on similar lands under different management regimes; On similar forestland
with 10.8 BBF managed under a more conventional approach, Hampton's experience is such that annual growth would exceed 350 MMBF per year;)
300,000 MBF (300 Million Board Ft.)
D. Hampton's Hypothetical Harvest Model:
(1) Assume 30% of land dedicated to riparian or special habitat with extended rotations of 80 to 130 years (No Immediate Harvest);
150,000 Acres dedicated to Older Forest, Riparian, etc. (Extended Rotations)
(2) Assume 70% of land managed on a 60 year rotation with a volume/acre of 40 MBF/Acre at final harvest;
(Note: Initial harvests would come from oldest age classes first -- per discussion with ODF staff on 7/26/2013)
350,000 Acres available for conventional forest management (45 to 65 year rotation)
(3) Annual Clearcut Harvest Acres
(1/60 of 350,000 acres)
Annual Clearcut Harvest Volume (40 MBF/Acre * 5,833 acres)
5,833 Acres per Year
233,320 MBF (233 Million Board Ft. / Year)
(4) Annual Thinning Acres
(1/60 of 350,000 acres)
Annual Thinning Harvest Volume (5 MBF/Acre * 5,833 acres)
5,833 Acres per Year
29,165 MBF (29 Million Board Ft. / Year)
(5) Total Annual Sustainable Harvest per Year on 70% of Land Base:
262,485 MBF (262 Milion Board Ft. / Year)
E. Comparison of Hampton's Hypothetical Harvest Model vs. Current ODF Annual Operating Plans:
Hampton Estimate
Annual Harvest Volume - MBF/Year
Hypothetical Plan
262,000
Draft FY 2014
AOP
182,500
Difference FY 2013 Actual Stumpage Rate/MBF
79,500 $
336.00 $
Foregone Revenue Flow/Year
26,712,000
F. Conclusions:
(1) Draft FY 2014 AOP harvest levels are only 61% of predicted growth rates of 300,000 MBF per year.
(2) Higher sustainable harvest levels are available without compromising environmental or social values. (In the above example, 30% of the land is dedicated to extended rotations, with no immediate harvest assumed)
(3) Higher sustainable harvest levels would improve revenue flow to the citizens of Oregon by an estimated $26.7 million dollars per year. (This would greatly stabilize county budgets, state-wide school funding and help ODF achieve Financial Viability objectives.)
(4) Given the current age class distribution on the landscape and what would develop under this hypothetical harvest model, significant complex forest habitats will develop over time.
(5) At the meeting on 7/26/2013, ODF staff indicated that an ODF harvest model with similar assumptions would show an annual harvest level of approximately 240 MMBF, although a "... range of 240 MMBF to 260 MMBF per year should be achievable."
If one assumed the mid range of the ODF perspective is the most accurate forecast of what harvest levels would be under a modification to the FMP, the summary below illustrates the harvest level and cash flow implications as follows:
ODF Estimate
Annual Harvest Volume - MBF/Year
Hypothetical Plan
250,000
Draft FY 2014
AOP
182,500
Difference FY 2013 Actual Stumpage Rate/MBF
67,500 $
336.00 $
Foregone Revenue Flow/Year
22,680,000