© “Is there an Austrian Intelligence Model?” By Ingo Mayr-Knoch Written for the course: “Renseigner les démocraties, renseigner en démocratie” Taught by Philippe Hayez and Jean-Claude Cousseran Fall 2014 This paper has received the 2014 IRSEM-PSIA Prize The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © Is there an Austrian Intelligence Model? Recommendations for the Austrian Intelligence Community Ingo Mayr-Knoch, 17.11.2014 Sciences Po, Paris Characters: 20.355 © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © Outline: 1. Research Question 2 Austrian Security Strategy 2013 © 2.1 General critique of the Austrian Security Strategy 2013 2.2 Assessment of the Austrian Security Strategy in respect to the intelligence community 3. Reform proposal for the Austrian intelligence community 3.1 Current organization of the intelligence community 3.2 Problem 1: No overarching tasking and coordination institution 3.3 Problem 2: Military culture in the foreign intelligence service 3.4 Reform after the British model 4. Austria and the common EU intelligence system 4.1 The current EU intelligence system 4.2 An Austrian initiative for an EU federal community model 5. The role of the small states in the EU defense system © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © 1. Research Question After the end of the Second World War the presence of many international institutions and companies and the very lax Austrian antiespionage laws and maybe also the Austrian mentality has created a real heaven for spies. (Proske 2014) © The Austrian Intelligence Services in 2014 remain shrouded in mystery. The Austrian foreign intelligence service the Heeresnachrichtenamt (HNaA) is in 2014 more secretive than the Israeli Mossad. In contrast to the Mossad the HNaA does not disclose its own logo, does not have a homepage and does not talk to the press or disclose information about strategy organization and operations (Mossad 2014). Budget and number of employees are hidden in the budget of the defense ministry (Wetz 2013). In the following we will assess the state of the Austrian intelligence community and derive recommendations for reforms. In order to accomplish this we will: 1. Analyze the Austrian Security Strategy 2013 which was adopted by the Austrian National Council Resolution of 3 July 2013 in respect to the intelligence system and recommend several improvements. 2. Analyze if the organization of the Austria intelligence community is able to achieve the goals of the Security Strategy 2013 and recommend several reforms. 2 Austrian Security Strategy 2013 2.1 General Critique of the Austrian Security Strategy 2013 The Security Strategy 2013 states that Austria today is enclosed by friendly and stable democracies. Due to the close proximity to the EU periphery in southeast and east Europe stability of the peripheral states are of special importance for Austrian security interests. A conventional threat is highly improbable. In today’s security environment threats have become more complex, interconnected and harder to foresee. In the globalized world regional events can have a global impact. Possible threats are defined for example as terrorism, cyber-attacks, proliferations of WMD, organized crime, illegal immigration and failed states. (Federal Chancellery of the Republic of Austria 2013) © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © The Security Strategy 2013 accepts the notion that security has to be provided through an integrated interdisciplinary approach by stating that civilian and military security aspects are integrated and contain elements of social, integration, communication, agriculture, finance, infrastructure, education, information, and health politics. (Federal Chancellery of the Republic of Austria 2013) But it fails to provide a clear picture of what possible threats will look like © against which Austria should prepare to defend itself. The Security Strategy 2013 states that the security interests of Austria are more and more connected to the European Union. The European Union is also more and more active in foreign and domestic affairs and security policy fields and almost acting like a state. Austria supports development of Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and the eventual common defense of the EU. Austria wants to actively help shape the European security landscape and has created the middle European security partnership which seeks to intensify the police cooperation of the eight member states Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Hungary. (Federal Chancellery of the Republic of Austria 2013) Recommendations The Security Strategy remains too vague in its definition of threats. Every good strategy has to start with a thorough analysis of the adversary. If the definition of the adversary remains vague the strategic goals and the strategy will remain vague and it will be almost impossible to derive clear actions from it. It should be analyzed which states or non state actors are a possible threat and of what kind this threat is. Today’s security environment is marked by rapidly appearing threats that are complex and fundamentally different from each other. See for example the difference in tactics of IS in Iraq and Syria, Russia in Ukraine and islamists in the Sahel zone. Non state actors are getting more powerful and the military loses its dominance in warfare. Other pressure instruments of the grand strategy toolbox to influence the will of the adversary like financial, economic, social, cultural, propaganda and cyber warfare instruments are being integrated in a common strategic framework and used in coordination as is demonstrated masterfully by Russia in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Checketts 2009). Even though threats against Austria are not very concrete today the rapidly changing security environment makes it necessary to undertake fundamental research to understand new strategy © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © and tactics used by actors in conflicts around the world to have a clearer understanding what strategy and tactics might be used against Austria and the EU in a future conflict. This fundamental research on threat tactics and strategy can serve the double function of being able to develop countermeasures even though a threat is not active today and also being able to copy and use certain tactics for Austria in a future conflict situation. © The discovery of threats and their analysis is the fundamental job of intelligence services. The praxis shows that intelligence agencies are often completely occupied by the need to come up with current intelligence for current policy challenges. There are often simply not sufficient resources left over for long term strategic threat analysis. (Lowenthal 2012) Therefore it is advisable to build an independent institution focused on long term strategic intelligence. In addition to this the field of security studies should be intensified at Austrian universities as an interdisciplinary field of studies in order to educate the decision makers of tomorrow and foster a culture to think interdisciplinary about security problems. The importance of the security of the EU and its member states for the security of Austria is clearly recognized in the Security Strategy. The EU is more and more appearing as an actor in foreign and security policy on the international stage. Therefore it will be seen by adversaries as a target in its own right. The financial sanctions against Russia were implemented by the EU and the counter economic sanctions by Russia where introduced against all EU states. Because of the high economic cultural and social interconnectedness of EU member states an attack against one state will adversely affect the security situation in every other European member state. Austria, because if its small size, is traditionally even more dependent on economic and cultural relations with its neighbors. The Security Strategy 2013 shy’s away from an important conclusion. The EU needs a collective defense and security system. This should be a primary goal for Austria. The step by step integration of the defense and security system will also allow for economies of scale and synergy effects by eliminating duplications. This second last Austrian Security and Defense Strategy was formulated in 2001. Because of the rapidly changing security environment it is necessary that Austria adapts its Security Strategy on a yearly basis. This will help to be more specific on what threats should be focused on. © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © Summary 1. Provide detailed threat analysis using a holistic interdisciplinary security view 2. Introduce an institution to provide fundamental research on strategy and tactics used by actors around the world, apart from short term oriented intelligence agencies. 3. Establish security studies as subject at universities as an interdisciplinary field of research. © 4. Primary goal of Austria is the development of a common EU defense and security system. 5. Revise the Security Strategy on a yearly basis. 2.2 Assessment of the Austrian Security Strategy in respect to the intelligence community The Security Strategy 2013 is too unspecific in setting goals for the intelligence services. It is stated that the Austrian Army should reinforce its capabilities of political and military advance warning. All security related actors should take part in the production of a common situation picture on threats. The inner European intelligence exchange should be improved. (Federal Chancellery of the Republic of Austria 2013) This is certainly a step in the right direction. But because measures and goals are not clearly defined it is not clear what reforms are needed. Because of the vagueness there will be probably not much concrete action spurred. A detailed plan for the intelligence community has to be derived from the overall security goals and concrete measures have to be outlined after a thorough strength and weakness analysis of the intelligence community. In the following we will give some basic recommendation for reforms of the Austrian intelligence community. 3. Reform proposal for the Austrian intelligence community 3.1 Current organization of the intelligence community The Austrian intelligence community is made up of three services: The foreign intelligence agency the Heeresnachrichtenamt (HNaA) is subordinated to the defense minister. Its personnel, except for specialists like translators, are hired exclusively from the ranks of the officer corps of the Austrian army. It is not allowed to operate on Austrian soil. It combines Signal (SIGINT) and Human intelligence (HUMINT) activities and operates several SIGINT surveillance stations throughout Austria. (Bundesministerium Für Landesverteidigung Und Sport, no date A) © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © The counterespionage service of the army the Heeresabwehramt (AbwA) is tasked with countering espionage activities directed against the army. (Bundesministerium Für Landesverteidigung Und Sport, no date B) The domestic intelligence agency the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz und Terrorismusbekämpfung (BVT) which is controlled by the ministry of interior. It is tasked © with counterespionage, surveillance of extremists and counterterrorism on Austrian soil. The police organizations of the federal states have their own Landesamt für Verfassungsschutz. (Bundesministerium Für Inneres, no date) 3.2 Problem 1: No overarching tasking and coordination institution In Austria similar to Great Britain the intelligence services are subordinated to different ministries. For example foreign intelligence (MI6) in Britain is under control of the foreign ministry, domestic intelligence (MI5) is under the control of the ministry of interior. The cooperation of the different intelligence agencies is managed by a common coordination and tasking institution the Joint Intelligence Council (JIC) at the level of cabinet of the prime minister. (Lowenthal 2012) In Austria there is no overarching tasking and coordination body for the different intelligence services. In addition in Britain a Joint Terrorism Analysis Center (JTAC) was establish where representatives of all intelligence services work together on a permanent basis to enable information sharing on a specific problem. (Lowenthal 2012) The Austrian intelligence community needs an institution that fulfills a central coordination and tasking role and construct a common intelligence picture. Also permanent forums should be created that allow the services to work together permanently to establish a picture on concrete threats like terrorism for example. 3.3 Problem 2: Military culture in foreign intelligence service The foreign intelligence service HNaA is subordinated to the ministry of defense and recruits only members of the army. This alone hints at strong military culture and perspective on security threats and the existence of severe blind spots. The mission of the HNaA is described in the § 20. (1) Militaerbefugnisgesetz. The HNnA is tasked with collecting information concerning the military and any related other facts from states and international organizations. © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © This mission statement does not reflect the complexity of todays security environment and the need for an interdisciplinary security approach. The mission of the HNA has to be restated. It is highly improbable that an intelligence agency that has always lived in the conventional military world and only recruited military personnel will have sufficient interdisciplinary breadth and open-mindedness to understand unconventional adversaries using the whole © bandwidth of pressure instruments. Furthermore military officers tend to get a very detailed technical and tactical education in military schools which leads to a technical and tactical approach to problems. But a strategist in contrast has to neglect the details and get a broad overview over the situation to combine different tactical instruments of power from different policy field to find a solution to a problem. It also takes a strategic point of view to see strategic threats and prevent strategic surprise. Therefore soldiers do not make the best intelligence officers. The role of foreign intelligence agencies is to provide intelligence analysis to the political leadership of a country for informed policy decisions. Therefore it has to be intimated with the intelligence needs of the political leadership and maintain close working relations with it. (Lowenthal 2012) In Austria the foreign intelligence service is a subdivision of the defense ministry and tasked by the defense minister. This is a very long and complicated chain of reporting and tasking to the chancellor (Bundeskanzler) and his cabinet which should be the main customers of the intelligence agency. 3.4 Reform after the British model Because of the existing similarities it would take the least organizational changes to reform the Austrian intelligence community following the British model. Of high necessity is the formation of an institution (in the following Intelligence Coordination Center ICC) at the level of the cabinet of the chancellor in order to coordinate the activities of the three intelligence services and allow for direct tasking and direct feedback between the intelligence services and their main customers. This institution should have the capability to aggregate the intelligence reports of the different intelligence services and also use intelligence reports of other ministries to create a holistic intelligence picture. Since threats are interdisciplinary a culture has to be developed that every ministry should act as an intelligence collector and add to the common situational awareness. Especially important is the foreign ministry which naturally collects a lot of information during its work. For this culture to develop a formal process has to be © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © established that tasks every ministry to internally collect intelligence and send reports to the Intelligence Coordination Center. Similar to the Spanish model the ministers of all the ministries should meet once a year and develop the intelligence priorities and task list for intelligence collection together. This will facilitate the access of all ministries to the intelligence analysis they need and also raise the awareness of all ministries of the importance © of a common intelligence picture. The recruitment process of the foreign intelligence service has to be reformed. In order to reduce group thinking and cultural blind spots personnel from other disciplines have to be recruited. The service has to become multidisciplinary. A first easy step would be to attach personnel from other ministries to the service and use them on the management level and in the intelligence analysis function in order to broaden the focus of analysis. The intelligence collection is of secondary importance since it should be driven by the needs of the analysts. In the long run the recruitment and education process has to be reformed to spark a culture change in the agency. The first step is to start an open recruiting process at Austrian universities and allow for active applications. A prerequisite for this would be obviously an own homepage and a public information policy. The education process of new employees has to be reformed primarily since it is crucial for establishing interdisciplinary values in the new service. Probably it would be a better solution to subject the foreign intelligence service to the foreign ministry (like in the UK) rather than the defense ministry since the ministry of foreign affairs is used to deal with a variety of instruments of foreign relations (economic, cultural and political) and therefore has a more interdisciplinary approach than the military. But bureaucratic organizations tend to have a strong inertia and such drastic reformation will strongly be opposed by the military community. Furthermore this change of ownership could lead to resignation of many military officers because of the subsequent culture shock which in turn would mean a loss of knowledge. Intelligence services are usually busy with meeting the demands of their clients for current intelligence and do not have the luxury of providing long term strategic analysis. (Lowenthal 2012) Therefore a center for strategic intelligence should be established under the ICC that analyses future strategic threats using intelligence collected by the intelligence services and the different ministries. If a clear threat cannot be identified it should concentrate on analyzing new strategies and tactics currently in use by actors worldwide like IS and Russia. Because it is highly probable that these strategies and tactics will be copied by future adversaries of the © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © EU and Austria. This strategic intelligence center should have close ties to the universities that are active in the field of securities to foster a scientific discourse about security. 4. Austria and the common EU intelligence system © 4.1 The current EU intelligence system We have seen that a common defense and security system is of growing importance for the EU, since it is seen more and more as an actor on the international level. The establishment of a common EU intelligence community is even more important than that of a common defense since the detection of threats precedes every defensive action. A common intelligence system is necessary for the recognition of threats to prevent strategic surprise. This should allow for a significant warning time so that a common defense response to it can still be orchestrated in time even without a fully integrated defense system. An integrated intelligence approach is therefore more important than a common defense system and could be the first step that leads to a common EU defense system. Currently the EU with the Joint Situation Center SITCEN has an intelligence service which has the goal to support the EU External Action Service which manages foreign relations, security and defense policy of the EU. SITCEN which draws its staff from the national intelligence services pools information provided by the national services and provides its own analysis. It does not collect its own information. (Le Monde 2010) 4.2 An Austrian initiative for an EU federal community model The SITCEN could become the first seed of an integrated EU intelligence community. A role model can be the US intelligence community which integrates the work of 17 different agencies. The US Directorate of National Intelligence DNI serves as a direct link to the President, integrates the analysis of the agencies, sets intelligence priorities and tasks and coordinates the intelligence agencies. (Lowenthal 2012) This federal approach can be used for the stronger integration of the national intelligence agencies in the EU. There is no need to build a central intelligence agency with its own collection capabilities. The current national agencies all have their competitive advantages in certain fields and regions. For example the Spanish CNI is credited with having thorough local knowledge in the Sahel and in South America. The Austrian service has an excellent overview over the situation in south east © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © Europe. The different cultural perspective each national service can bring in will provide for a stimulating intelligence picture. The national intelligence agencies would therefore further exist and undertake their own collection and analysis. But like the DNI in the US the SITCEN should not only aggregate the analysis of the different national services to provide a common EU intelligence picture but also serve as a place where intelligence requirements for the whole © EU are formulated by the political leadership of the EU. SITCEN would then task and coordinate the services of the different nations. The heads of state and government of the EU should participate in the formulation of EU wide intelligence goals so they can serve as a link and implement these collection goals to their own service via their national chain of command. The national intelligence services would serve the double function of informing the political decision makers at home and providing analysis for a common EU situation picture. The different agencies should work competitively (see competitive intelligence in the US) in order to spur the development of different interpretations of analytical problems (Lowenthal 2012). An excessive centralization of the EU intelligence system would meet too much beaurocratic resistance. States with strong intelligence agencies like France, Spain and Germany would probably fear losing their sovereignty. A federal model like in the US is the way to go. In order to realize economies of scale costly collection methods like satellites and SIGINT can be centralized in an EU wider service to focus the efforts. This is already done with the European Union Satellite Center (European Union Satellite Center 2014). Austria should not wait until this integration of the European intelligence community is decided on by all member states. Since such an expansion of the duties of the SITCEN would influence the work of the national intelligence agencies such a process on the EU level will take a long time and be met with resistance. Furthermore such a close cooperation needs a high trust level which takes time to build. Austria should seek to build such a federal model of national intelligence agencies on a regional level. Austria has led a successful cooperation effort of the national police agencies of Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Hungary. It should seek to build an alliance of smaller EU states with small intelligence budget to start a federal intelligence community based on the US community model with a central controlling and tasking institution. This will have the benefit that the member countries will have a higher combined budget to acquire technology needed for SIGINT and cyberespionage activities. Trust can be build. The participating nations will acquire a significant information advantage on how an integration process can be managed and therefore play a significant role when the integration of all EU national agencies will take place. This © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] © would allow Austria and the other states participating in the regional model to gain a much stronger influence on the final EU intelligence system, on the strategic intelligence picture and therefore also on the security policy of the EU. The Austrian initiative should make clear that it is happy to welcome new member states. This will create a direct friendly competition to the EU SITCEN and speed up plans of the EU to integrate the national intelligence services. © 5. The role of the small states in the EU defense system The new generation of warfare looming on the horizon gives great opportunities for small and middle powers to offset the dominance of bigger powers. Small powers with severe budget constraints have traditionally been able to find more creative solutions to new problems as was demonstrate for example by the North Vietnamese Army and its fight against the US in South Vietnam. Therefore Austria should see its small size not as a limitation when it comes to building up a common security and intelligence approach for the EU but as a chance to find creative solutions and use these to actively pursue a common EU defense and security approach. © The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. 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