What is the role of international organizations and do they really matter? Abbot, Kenneth and Duncan Snidal. 1998. Why States Act through Formal Organizations. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42:3-32. AZ State University Oxford University 1 The course take-away: • Institutions matter… • The ways countries interact in the international arena partly depends on their institutional context • Both international and domestic institutions matter • What is an institution? – A set of rules (structures/constraints/mechanisms) that govern the behavior of a given set of actors in a given context – An equilibrium? 2 What do international institutions do? My list: • Informational role • Lock-in • Obfuscate • Collective action (PD) • Coordinate 3 Do IOs matter? 4 Plan for today: 1. Some descriptive facts about IOs 2. A&S Take-away point – Plus: PD & coordination 3. Other perspectives – Realism, Constructivism, (Principal-Agent/Bureaucratic) 4. My preferred perspective: Self-Interest – Motives (e.g., laundering dirty politics) 5 Dramatic action • United Nations Security Council (UNSC): – sanctions & military action – Iran, Iraq (1991 v. 2003?), Libya • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – inspectors in North Korea • United Nations (UN) – peacekeepers in the Middle East • North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – in Bosnia • The Uruguay Round the World Trade Organization (WTO) & the dispute settlement mechanism 6 Ongoing action • Global health policy (the WHO) • Development (the World Bank) • Monetary policy (the International Monetary Fund) • EXTERNALITIES? (Implicit action?) – Participation reduces the chances of war among members – Participation increases the chances of democracy 7 Various sizes • From small: – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) - $2 million budget (pays for their annual meeting?) • To big: – European Union (EU) • verging on a sovereign state (GDP of 17-19 trillion $) – World Bank • >10,000 employees from 160 countries (2/3 in Washington) – IMF • Aug. 2008: $341 billion moving to nearly $1 trillion post-GFC 8 Specialized agencies (look up on your own): • ILO – http://www.ilo.org/global/What_we_do/lang--en/index.htm • ICAO – http://www.icao.int/icao/en/howworks.htm • FAO – http://www.fao.org/about/about-fao/en/ • Others: – UNEP • http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?Document ID=43 – EBRD • http://www.ebrd.com/about/index.htm 9 AZ State University Oxford University The main take-away point? Abbot, Kenneth and Duncan Snidal. 1998. Why States Act through Formal Organizations. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42:3-32. http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Why+States+Act+through+Formal+Organizations&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=ws 10 IOs allow for: • CENTRALIZATION – An organizational structure & administrative apparatus managing collective activities • May allow for immediate action (UN Security Council) • Or for specialization (OECD has >200 working groups) • Governance may have flexible design (IMF voting structure) or be rigid (UN Security Council) • INDEPENDENCE – The ability/authority to act with a degree of autonomy within defined spheres 11 Rational choice perspective: • Self-Interest: – LEADERS create/use IOs when benefits of cooperation outweigh (sovereignty) costs • IOs – produce collective goods in PD settings – solve coordination problems (“battle of the sexes”) 12 PD settings? • Prisoner’s dilemma • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED9gaAb2BEw&feature=related • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3Uos2fzIJ0 13 Prisoner’s Dilemma: • A non-cooperative, non-zero-sum game. • Mixed game of cooperation & conflict • Individual rationality brings about collective irrationality. 14 Player 2 Player 1 Cooperate w/friend Defect (rat) Cooperate w/friend Defect (rat) -3, -3 -25, -1 -1, -25 -10, -10 15 • The same situation can occur whenever "collective action" is required. • The collective action problem is also called the "n-person prisoner’s dilemma." • Also called the "free rider problem." • "Tragedy of the commons." • All have similar logics and a similar result: – Individually rational action leads to collectively suboptimal results. 16 Is cooperation ever possible in Prisoner’s Dilemma? • Yes • In repeated settings • Axelrod, Robert M. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books. 17 In the repeated setting, there are multiple equilibria: Player 2 Player 1 Cooperate w/friend Defect (rat) Cooperate w/friend Defect (rat) -3, -3 -25, -1 -1, -25 -10, -10 (1) Tit-for-Tat “Cooperate” – “Cooperate” (2) “Defect” – “Defect” 18 “Battle of the sexes” coordination game: (This one is NOT a “prisoner’s dilemma”) Ballet socialite Football socialite Football Ballet Football 4,3 2,2 Ballet 1,1 3,4 19 • IOs facilitate cooperation by coordinating states on superior equilibria/outcomes. • And they also lower the transaction costs of doing so. 20 Alternatives to the rationalinstitutionalist perspective 21 Realist theory • Anarchy rules international relations • States do not cede authority • IOs thus lack strong enforcement capacities • They are mere reflections of national interests/power • They do not constrain powerful states • Does realism = rational choice? • Realism focuses on state interests – may ignore microfoundations (leader incentives, domestic politics) 22 Constructivist theory • Anarchy is what you make of it! • Where do ideas and preferences come from? • Focus on norms, beliefs, knowledge, and (shared) understandings International ideas IOs IOs International ideas • Vital for the understanding of major concepts such as legitimacy and norms 23 Abbot & Snidal: States use IOs to… • Reduce transaction costs • Create information, ideas, norms, and expectations • Carry out and encourage specific activities • Legitimate or delegitimate particular ideas and practices • Enhance their capacities and power 24 Principal-Agent framework • IOs are thus "agents" • Their (biggest) members are the "principals" • Agency slack? – "bureaucratic" perspective 25 The principal-agent problem • The agent works for the principal • The agent has private information • The principal only observes an outcome • Must decide to reelect/pay/rehire/keep the agent • If standards are too low, the agent “shirks” • If standards are too high, the agent gives up • We need a Goldilocks solution – set standards “just right.” • We may have to accept some an “information rent” – Either pay extra or accept agency slack (corruption?) 26 High Effort/skill Nature chooses the state of the world (“luck”) od Go ect l e Re Government Low Effort/skill Voter Bad High Effort/skill Government No t Low Effort/skill 27 • If reelection criteria are too high, the government will not supply effort when exogenous conditions are bad. • If reelection criteria are too low, the government will not supply effort when conditions are good. • What should you do? • Intuition: It depends on the probability of good/bad conditions & on the difference in outcomes when conditions are good/bad… 28 Solution? • TRANSPARENCY? 29 Public choice/Bureaucratic theory • IOs are like any bureaucracy • Allow governments to reward people with cushy jobs • The bureaucracy is essentially unaccountable • Seek to maximize their budgets • Look for things to do 30 Back to rational-institutionalist view… 31 What do IOs do for their members? • Pooling resources – (IMF/World Bank, World Health Organization) - share costs, economies of scale • Direct joint action – military (NATO), financial (IMF), dispute resolution (WTO) • But why would states want an IO to do these things?... – – – – Enforcement? Neutrality? Community representative? Laundering? 32 Enforcement? • When states behave as IOs dictate, does it mean IOs are forcing states to behave a certain way? • The problem of endogeneity – 100% Compliance may mean the IO is doing *nothing* – Be careful what conclusions we draw from observations • Compliance is meaningful only if the state takes action it would not take in the absence of the IO • What is the counterfactual? • Example: IMF/World Bank CONDITIONALITY 33 Neutrality? • Example – Blue helmets: • Providing information – http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/IMFforecasts.html • Collecting information – http://www9.georgetown.edu/faculty/jrv24/transparency.html 34 Community representative? • Legitimacy • Articulate global (regional) norms? • Who “elects” the IO representatives? – We’ll talk a lot about this with respect to the IMF & World Bank – Also the emerging AIIB 35 LAUNDERING? • Allow states to take (collective) action without taking direct responsibility (or take responsibility with IO support) • Examples: – The IMF does the dirty work – UN Security Council resolutions - a form of laundering? • When an IO legitimates retaliation, states are not vigilantes but upholders of community norms, values, and institutions • Korean War - The United States cast essentially unilateral action as more legitimate *collective* action by getting UN Security Council approval 36 Why do we blame International Organizations and use them to launder our dirty politics? The world deserves harmonious cooperation through global governance • But that’s not what we need right now • Small steps towards cooperation • IO’s can help • And we’ll blame them when things go wrong • Because they can take it • Because they’re not our hero • They’re our silent guardians. Our watchful protectors. • Our dark knights 37 Answers to today’s question: • IO’s coordinate on superior equilibria & reduce transaction costs • Enable members to: – Enforce norms & international law – Have a neutral community representative – Legitimacy - shared beliefs that coordinate actors regarding what actions should be accepted, tolerated, resisted, or stopped – LAUNDER dirty politics • To these ends IOs are created: CENTRALIZED & INDEPENDENT 38 Analytical tools • Coordination games & Prisoner’s dilemma • Realist theory • Constructivist theory • My perspective: Interests & Institutions – Interests of LEADERS (Chief executives) – Constraints/opportunities posed by DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL Institutions 39 Thank you WE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN! 40
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