5/11/2016
Preparedness is overrated
community responses to floods in a
context of (perceived) low probability
Kim Anema – Netherlands Red Cross & Unesco-IHE
Matthias Max – German Red Cross
Chris Zevenbergen – Unesco-IHE
1
5/11/2016
The dike paradox
The paradox
Risk = Probability * Consequences
When the probability is very low,
It is almost impossible to prepare
for the consequences
2
5/11/2016
Research question
To what extent is it possible to take preventive measures
for social consequences of flooding in a context of
(perceived) low probability?
Social consequences
≈
Disruption of
everyday live
3
5/11/2016
Social vs Physical Consequences
Resilience
- instead of Adaptation (no trend to adapt to)
A set of capacities in the community:
•
•
•
•
Information – structures & shared stories
Capacities – leadership, creativity, etc.
Social Capital – sense of belonging, helping behaviour
Equity of Risk – distribution of livelihoods
Interviews, questionnaires
and census data
4
5/11/2016
Brisbane
• We thought “Brisbane would never flood again”
• Alert systems in place, but never actually used
• Wave of volunteers
– Traffic jams towards the city
• Main activities: cleaning, shelter, food
• Authorities stayed in the lead – working together with citizens
– Via social media
5
5/11/2016
Brisbane
Main drivers for successful (quality and speed) response:
• the approachability of (local) authorities in Brisbane
• a big group of ‘secondary victims’ in Brisbane
• clear leadership in Brisbane
Community action, Flexibility
and creativity from authorities,
Leadership, Informal connections
and a Shared narrative.
6
5/11/2016
Dresden
o Flooded year before (2002), but no history of flooding
> preventive measures in Saxony <
o Long lead time: waiting for the flood to reach their city
o Volunteers organized themselves (online)
o Mainly sandbags and evacuation of goods
o Collaboration with authorities a bit arduous
Trusted sources of information,
Helping behaviour, Leadership,
Evenly distributed risk / threat.
7
5/11/2016
Role of Social Media
Success was amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0:
Used by both authorities and community groups
Online contacts and social connections were:
• fast
• need driven and,
• in their own way, orderly.
8
5/11/2016
Conclusions
Communities will rise up to the occasion in case of an event;
- Mass hysteria indeed seems to be a myth
- ‘Disasters bringing out the best of people’ not
The concept of community resilience is well-fitted to deal with the potential
consequences of an (im)probable flood.
This kind of resilience is built on capacities and
dynamics that are part of everyday life and which
can be invested in ‘pre-event’.
Investing in these resilience indicators might
even have beneficial trade-offs
in other policy fields.
9
5/11/2016
10