Does Risk Management
manage your risks?
Ken Evans
Chair, APM Risk SIG
Risk Lead, Turner + Townsend
Top 5 risks for a dashboard
Risk
RAG Mitigation
Brexit
Continue to monitor situation
Contractor performance
Engage with senior contractor
management
Ground conditions
Surveys
Something else to fill up the
slots
Not really taking it seriously
Resourcing
No longer a risk. Leave on top 5 to
show how good we are
QRAs and whatnot
Distribution Analyzer
Moonshot
Entire Plan : Finish Date
100% 04/04/2018
95% 27/11/2017
90% 07/11/2017
120
85% 23/10/2017
Variation:37
Variation:25
80% 15/10/2017
75% 09/10/2017
100
Variation:26
60% 24/09/2017
55% 18/09/2017
Hits
Variation:28
Cumulative Probability
65% 27/09/2017
80
50% 12/09/2017
45% 06/09/2017
60
40% 30/08/2017
Cumulative Frequency
70% 02/10/2017
35% 23/08/2017
30% 20/08/2017
40
25% 16/08/2017
20% 13/08/2017
15% 09/08/2017
20
10% 07/08/2017
5% 06/08/2017
0
0% 31/07/2017
17/08/2017
25/11/2017
05/03/2018
Distribution (start of interval)
Moonshot
Moonshot
Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks
Schedule Sensitivity Index: Entire Plan - All tasks
31420 -
67%
30080
29%
24440 -
65%
24460
31450 -
65%
24760
31480 -
65%
25120
22%
31500 -
65%
28500
22%
23%
22%
31360 -
64%
24680
21%
30080 -
64%
29880
21%
31490 -
62%
30880 30940 -
43%
39%
27540
20%
24440
2520
17%
16%
What’s a project?
A unique, transient endeavour undertaken to
achieve planned objectives.
What’s a project?
A unique, transient endeavour undertaken to
achieve planned objectives.
a) Plan the plan
b) Deliver the plan
c) Monitor the delivery
Difficult to mix optimistic certainty and
critical uncertainty
 When you got married, you were pretty confident
it’d work out
Difficult to mix optimistic certainty and
critical uncertainty
 When you got married, you were pretty confident
it’d work out
– 47% off UK marriages end in divorce
Difficult to mix optimistic certainty and
critical uncertainty
 When you got married, you were pretty confident
it’d work out
– 47% off UK marriages end in divorce
 When you kick off a project, are you confident that
it’ll succeed?
Risk management is
A process that allows individual risk events and
overall risk to be understood and managed
proactively, optimising success by minimising
threats and maximising opportunities.
Risk management is
A process that allows individual risk events and
overall risk to be understood and managed
proactively, optimising success by minimising
threats and maximising opportunities.
Some ways to challenge your over-confidence
without knocking your confidence
Expand your definition of risk
Stochastic Uncertainty
Random events
Expand your definition of risk
Stochastic Uncertainty
Aleatoric Uncertainty
Random events
Inherent variability
Expand your definition of risk
Stochastic Uncertainty
Aleatoric Uncertainty
Random events
Inherent variability
Epistemic Uncertainty
Lack of knowledge
Expand your definition of risk
Stochastic Uncertainty
Aleatoric Uncertainty
Random events
Inherent variability
Epistemic Uncertainty
Ontological Uncertainty
Lack of knowledge
Unknowns unknowns
Capture everything, then refine
 “Should this really go on the risk register?”
Capture everything, then refine
 “Should this really go on the risk register?”
 “Is it an assumption or a risk?”
Capture everything, then refine
 “Should this really go on the risk register?”
 “Is it an assumption or a risk?”
 “Do we really want to write that down?”
Capture everything, then refine
 “Should this really go on the risk register?”
 “Is it an assumption or a risk?”
 “Do we really want to write that down?”
 Is it visible enough to manage?
Don’t treat any risk output as the definitive
 “That risk number’s too high – try again”
 “That’s my top risk”
 “I know how risky my project is”
Don’t treat any risk output as the definitive
 Gut feeling is useful, but flawed
Don’t treat any risk output as the definitive
 Gut feeling is useful, but flawed
 As are all risk assessments
Don’t treat any risk output as the definitive
 Gut feeling is useful, but flawed
 As are all risk assessments
 Don’t rely on one method – minimize the flaws
Always keep looking, just in case
 Keep reviewing your risks – things change!
Always keep looking, just in case
 Keep reviewing your risks – things change!
 Start from scratch again – maybe you’ll think of
something new
Always keep looking, just in case
 Keep reviewing your risks – things change!
 Start from scratch again – maybe you’ll think of
something new
 Get a fresh pair of eyes – another team might spot
the one thing you missed
Risk management of risk management
 Risk: You may not have identified the possible future
event that causes your project to fail
Risk management of risk management
 Risk: You may not have identified the possible future
event that causes your project to fail
 Are you sufficiently mitigating that risk?
Risk management of risk management
 Risk: You may not have identified the possible future
event that causes your project to fail
 Are you sufficiently mitigating that risk?
 If not, a risk manager might be able to help
Questions?
Slides at
www.projchallenge.com
[email protected]
www.apm.org.uk