ESPON Project 1.1.3
Effects of enlargement of the
EU on the spatial tissue
Spatial trends
Regions with specific needs
Scenarios
Policy combinations
Research questions:
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Current polycentric developments in
enlargement area?
Diagnosis of the spatial tissue with emphasis
on the EU-10?
Areas at risk in the enlargement area?
Special needs of border regions?
Possible futures of the enlarged EU:
accessibility and performance of regions?
What policy combinations at all levels could
be efficient?
Spatial Policy Orientations –
Combination of Two Logics
CONSEQUENCES
APPROPRIATENESS
• Realist/rationalist
perspective, interests and
preferences taken as
given
• Prevalent in situations
where interests are nonnegotiable… in zero-sum
bargaining
• Based on epistemic
knowledge
• Constructivist
perspective, interests not
fully known and are
susceptible to change
and evolution through
discourse
• Prevalent in situations
where actors are working
towards common goals.
Win-win situations
• Based on consensual
knowledge
Preliminary Findings I: Spatial
association
• In general: positive surroundings go with
higher own economic growth
• Spatial clusters more prevalent in EU10
(55 % of NUTS3) than in EU15 (35%)
• But large isolated hot spots as well as cold
spots imply poor spillover effects and
knowledge transfer
Spatial association of GDP growth
1995-2000
Spatial association of population growth 1995-2000
Preliminary findings II: Regional
specialisation and concentration
during enlargement
• Most processes in EU10 replicate transformation
in EU15
• But now both service growth and employment
decline in other sectors are faster and more
manifest in EU10
• Implies needs for more resources and targeting
of policy, but not necessarily new orientations
• Regional specialisation leads to risk as much as
to wealth
Typologies based on trends of regional specialisation and GDP per
capita growth, 1995 - 2001 (EU average compound GDP/h growth rate)
Identifying EU’s ”regions with
specific needs”
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EU’s Rustic communities
Fringe regions
Rust belt
Shrinking communities
EU’s
‘Fringe’
EU´s
Fringecommunities
communities
EU’s ‘Rustic’ communities
Border regions typologies:
Economic disparities vs transnational activities and
capacity building
Scenario studies
• Spatial consequences of macro economic
and demographic trend breaks
• Transport infrastructure policy for
competitiveness, cohesion and
conservation in EU10
RESSET Model (REgional Scenario Simulations for the
European Territory)
- a sketch planning model that enables the user to
very quickly test a scenario at different levels of
detail by specifying different scales of change in
population, employment, and accessibility.
Examples of ‘What If’ Scenarios
 Policies to move jobs from western Europe to the
east: injections of employment at levels of 15% in
the key eastern countries
 Growth of western Europe, particularly the Low
Countries, UK, France and Germany from East
Asian and North American investment, adding
15% to employment levels.
 The growth of the south in terms of migrating
population to Greece, Spain, Portugal and the
islands, adding 15% to these population levels.
If: 15 % more jobs in central Eastern countries –
What?
Transport infrastructure scenarios – findings
(SASI):
• Transport infrastructure improvement alone
not sufficient
• Improve transport corridors between old and
new member states more important than
within new EU states
• Improvements designed to reduce spatial
disparities at the European level are likely to
increase spatial disparities within the EU-10.
• Decline in polycentricity is likely to continue in
the future, and faster in EU-10
• All but one transport policy scenarios likely to
accelerate the decline in polycentricity in EU10.
Making Policy combinations
Principle-based:
• Elementary and European-wide typologies of
regions at risk.
• Based on tested scenario alternatives
Capacity-based:
• Empowering
administrative capacity and
competence at all levels.
• Based on consenus and partnerhip
• Activating Bottom-Up Processes.
“Logic of Consequence”-based
policy combinations
• Transport
infrastructure
investments
particularly between new and old member
states
• Networking with Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg
and Kiev
• Promotion of the network of triangle Warsaw Poznan - Budapest.
• Intensified and focused urban policy
programmes
• Promote the multiplier effects of R&D centers
• Programme for functional growth of second
tier cities
”Logic of Appropriatenessbased policy combinations
• Explore multi-level coordination methods
• Accelerate administrative reconstruction in
New Member States
• Capacity building focusing Fringes
• Key services in Shrinking regions
• RDP focusing EU´s Rustic communities
• Cooperation within regions in EU-10
• Local Agenda 21 and Polycentricity at
local scale
Challenges for Final report
• Refine analysis and interpretation of
spatial association and specialization in
EU10
• Qualify the typologies of regional needs
• Develop RESSET model to a handy
tool
• Scenario Cross-breedings
• Develop the 2-sided ”Policy Combination”
model
Thanks for your attention!
Typologies of regional specialisation and GDP per capita - 2001 (EU
average)
Spatial association between GDP per capita growth
1995-2000 and GDP per capita 1995