7 Annex 3: Linkages and conditional probabilities
within the BBN
The conditional probabilities were derived through a workshop. For small linkages, the probabilities were
derived directly through discussion and negotiation. For larger linkages, a more formulaic approach was
adopted, where importance shares were allocated to the indicators and used to derive the conditional
probabilities given the indicator outcomes. These weights were determined through discussions with the
expert group.
In several instances an intermediate node was used to link some indicators that were related. This was to
reduce the number of linkages into each objective to a manageable number. A limit of a maximum of four
linkages into an objective was generally imposed.
7.1 1. Commercial, Recreational and Charter Communities
7.1.1 OBJECTIVE 1.1 FLEXIBLE OPPORTUNITIES
Node
CRC_1_1_N1 (Opportunities)
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Diversity of opportunities
Take advantage of opportunities
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Diversity of opportunities
Take advantage of opportunities
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
85
15
Yes
No
90
10
Yes
Yes
0
100
Node
CRC_1_1_N2 (Institutions)
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Transferable rights
0.4
Constraints to access opportunities
0.4
Perceptions of flexibilities
0.2
Objective
1.1 Flexible opportunities
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
CRC_1_1_N1
0.6
CRC_1_1_N2
0.2
Managers doing a good job
0.2
7.1.2 1.2 CULTURAL, REC AND LIFESTYLE BENEFITS
Node
CRC_1_2_N1 (Income satisfaction)
Model
Pr(O  increased )   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if High, 50 if Medium, 0 if Low
Pr(O  not _ increased )  100  Pr(O  increased )
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Income change over 1 year
0.15
Income change over 5 years
0.25
Satisfaction with income
0.60
Node
CRC_1_2_N2 (Income contribution to lifestyle)
Model
Pr(O  High)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if High, 50 if Medium, 0 if Low
Pr(O  Low)  100  Pr(O  High)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Income relative to region
0.3
Income share
0.2
CRC_1_2_N1 (satisfaction)
0.5
Node
CRC_1_2_N3 (Attachment)
Model
Pr(O  Attached )   w Pr( I ) ,
Pr(I)
=
100
if
High/Retire,
50
if
Medium/Before retire, 0 if Low/ASAP
Pr(O  Not _ attached )  100  Pr(O  Attached )
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Importance of fishing to you
0.25
Intention to leave
0.2
Satisfaction with fishing activities
0.55
Objective
1.2 Cultural, recreational and lifestyle
Model
Pr(O  Yes Attitude)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Note: the contribution of the income and attachment indicators to the overall
objective depends on whether fishers view fishing as predominantly a lifestyle
or business activity.
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Attitude
Lifestyle
Business
CRC_1_2_N2 (income)
0.2
0.8
CRC_1_2_N3 (attachment)
0.8
0.2
7.1.3 1.3 APPROPRIATE MECHANISMS
Node
CRC_1_3_N1 (Understand process)
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Understand how to have input
Know who representative are
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Understand how to have input
Know who representative are
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
25
75
Yes
No
25
75
Yes
Yes
0
100
Node
CRC_1_3_N2 (governance structures)
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Fishers in MACs
Formal process exists
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Fishers in MACs
Formal process exists
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
20
80
Yes
No
80
20
Yes
Yes
0
100
Objective
1.3 Appropriate mechanisms
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes) .
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
CRC_1_3_N1 (process)
0.30
CRC_1_3_N2 (governance)
0.40
Actively participate in management
0.15
Satisfied with consultation
0.15
7.1.4 1.4 IMPROVE SKILLS
Node
CRC_1_4_N1 (Satisfied with skill level)
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Satisfied with representation skills
Satisfied with submission writing skills
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Satisfied with representation skills
Satisfied
with
writing skills
submission No
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
40
60
Yes
No
40
60
Yes
Yes
0
100
Objective
1.4 Improve skills
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
CRC_1_4_N1
Yes
Training provided
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
CRC_1_4_N1
Training provided
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
70
30
Yes
No
20
80
Yes
Yes
0
100
7.1.5 1.5 TRUST
Objective
1.5 Trust
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Trust managers
Perceptions of transparency
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Trust managers
Perceptions of transparency
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
30
70
Yes
No
80
20
Yes
Yes
0
100
7.1.6 1.6 MAXIMISE STEWARDSHIP
Node
Model
CRC_1_6_N1 (compliance trends)
Pr(O  Decreasing )   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Decreasing/Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  Increasing )  100  Pr(O  Decreasing )
Linking
Node
Model
Indicator/Node
Weight
Trends in hotline calls
0.25
Infringement trends
0.55
Perceptions of compliance by fishers
0.20
CRC_1_6_N2 (Information)
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Can access information produced by 0.30
managers
Information understandable
Provided with adequate training
0.60
0.20
Objective
Model
1.6 Maximise stewardship
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes/increasing, 0 if No/decreasing
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
CRC_1_6_N1
0.10
Easy to comply
0.30
CRC_1_6_N2
0.40
Fishers understand regulations
0.20
7.1.7 1.7 TRANSPARENT DECISIONS
Objective
Model
1.7 Transparent decisions
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Well documented process
0.20
Perceptions of transparency
0.50
Understand how decisions are made
0.30
7.1.8 1.8 EQUITABLE TREATMENT
Node
CRC_1_8_N1 (Perception equitable treatment)
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Effort restrictions
0.20
Access to areas
0.20
Permitted species
0.20
Allocation process
0.40
Objective
1.8 Equitable treatment
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
CRC_1_8_N1 (perceptions)
0.80
Well documented process
0.20
7.1.9 1.9 ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE
Objective
1.9 Access to infrastructure
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Infrastructure exists
Infrastructure adequate
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Infrastructure exists
Infrastructure adequate
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
0
100
Yes
No
100
0
Yes
Yes
0
100
7.1.10 2.1 MAINTAIN INDIGENOUS CULTURAL AND HERITAGE VALUES
Objective
2.1 Maintain indigenous cultural and heritage values
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Identify iconic species and habitats
0.20
Access to iconic species and habitats
0.40
Indigenous satisfaction with management
0.40
7.1.11 2.2 ENSURE ACCESS TO SEACOUNTRY
Objective
2.2 Ensure access to seacountry
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Identify seacountry relevant for this fishery
Support for cultural practices included in Management considerations
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Identify seacountry
Support for cultural practices
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
50
50
Yes
No
50
50
Yes
Yes
0
100
7.1.12 2.3 ENSURE OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTICIPATION IN MANAGEMENT
Objective
2.3 Ensure opportunity for participation in management
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Representatives part of decision making
0.40
Active participants in meetings
0.40
Communities sign off on process
0.20
7.1.13 2.4 HIGH DEGREE OF TRUST
Objective
2.4 High degree of trust
Model
Conditional probabilities assessed directly
Linking
Representatives participate in management review
Cultural and scientific research supports management
Indicator outcome
Node outcome
Representatives participate
Cultural and scientific research
No
Yes
No
No
100
0
No
Yes
60
40
Yes
No
40
60
Yes
Yes
0
100
7.1.14 2.5 ACCESS TO ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
Objective
2.5 Access to economic opportunities
Model
Pr(O  Yes)   w Pr( I ) , Pr(I) = 100 if Yes, 0 if No
Pr(O  No)  100  Pr(O  Yes)
Linking
Indicator/Node
Weight
Opportunity created to gain employment 0.25
in fisheries related work
Tailored tender process (in fisheries related
0.25
services) to indigenous communities
Facilitate capacity
opportunities
building
(training)
0.50