Uncertainty and adaptability in
policy analysis
Predictions
What does this have to do with filling out your matrix?!
Types of Problems
•
Uncertain problems —refers to absence of info about some relevant
variable in problem definition or prediction of outcomes
•
Difficult or complicated problems—refers to those with many
interacting variables, many possible solutions and no obvious best one a
priori
•
Complex or dynamic problems —refers to dynamic environments that
contain multiple actors or systems that interact in ways difficult or
impossible to predict (cannot be solved, at best harnessed)
•
Conflictual problems —refers to those with ideological & normative
dimensions that make agreement on problem definition, goals, or
solutions difficult (getting a solution adopted may be harder than choosing
one)
•
Problems can be all 4 (these seem to be “wicked”)!
How can we build policies that account for uncertainty and
adapt to new information or changing circumstances?
From: International Institute for Sustainable Development (2006)
“Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty, Change, and Surprise”
Ability to adapt to anticipated conditions:
• Mechanistic adjustment:
– Signposts and triggers
• Complex adaptive principles:
– Understand local conditions
– Respect history
– Understand interactions with natural, built, and
social environment
– Gather multiple perspectives
– Increase info on unknown effects
Adapted from: International Institute for Sustainable Development
(2006) “Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty, Change, and
Surprise”
Ability to adapt to unanticipated conditions:
• Policy review:
– Triggered by indices,
– Scheduled
– Pilot studies
• Complex adaptive systems:
– Information:
•
•
•
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Look for short-term criteria of success to trigger response
Place effort on significant indicators rather than measuring everything
Monitoring and remedial mechanisms should be built into policy
Facilitate copying of success and learning across jurisdictions
– Capacity
• Use deliberative process to build mutual knowledge, identify common values,
and plan
• Create self-organization and trusting networks; Promote local adaptive
cooperation
• Scale (spatial and temporal) must be appropriate to management
• Maintain local social capital
• Promote variation and redundancy
• Balance new and existing strategies
• Build adaptive capacity
Adapted from: International Institute for Sustainable Development
(2006) “Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty, Change, and
Surprise”
Tackling wicked problems:
– Holistic thinking
– Innovative and flexible approaches to process and
problem
– Ability to work across boundaries
– Ability to engage multiple stakeholders to:
• Define problem
• Identify potential solutions
• Monitor success and adapt
– Tolerance of uncertainty and ability to maintain
attention to problem over time
Adapted from : Australian Public Service commission, (2007) “Tackling Wicked Problems “
Example of estimating impacts
and costs:
• Bott and Swensen
• See technical appendices
Filling out the matrix:
• Which are the key outcomes and costs that you
need to put most time into?
• How will you estimate those impacts and costs
of policies?
• How are you incorporating the uncertainty of
estimated policy impacts?
• What are the key trade-offs and advice?
Preparing for your presentation:
• For your analysis, identify
– 3 key points on your problem definition
– 3 key points on trade-offs/advice
Preparing for your presentation:
• For your analysis, identify
– 3 key points on your problem definition
– 3 key points on trade-offs/advice
These are the key points for your presentation
Now, work with project partner to merge and pare
lists.
Ideas I hope you will take away from policy analysis:
•
Policy, programmatic, and organizational problems are complex and multilayered, thus deserving of careful analysis and thought
•
Decisions should simultaneously consider key outcomes, side-effects, costs
and resource needs, and distributional impacts
•
Every organization needs to consider both evidence-based tools as well as
new innovations; most often we’ll borrow and adapt!
•
Systematic comparison of potential strategies will result in better decisionmaking
•
Data and analysis are critical to understanding issues and choosing
strategic plans
•
Good evidence is hard to get, but you still have to use the best evidence
you can get.
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The use of policy analysis tools and thinking can be infused into your work
and into organizations