Economic Outlook for
The U.S., Georgia, and Higher Ed
Jeffrey H. Dorfman
Slowly Going Back to Work?
Lower Workforce Participation
Change is Not Due to Old People
But Some Have Not Gone Back to Work
Federal Spending and Revenue
US Budget Picture – What Changed?
Percentage Growth Since 2001
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Spending
Revenue
From 2001 to 2013, all figures adjusted for inflation and population growth.
Why Can the Government Afford This?
US Budget Outlook
 Republicans and Democrats will continue to make last
minute compromises.
 Spending is starting to increase again ($65 billion this year).
 Sequester was working, so it is over.
 Democrats will push for more tax revenues, but probably
won’t get much if any.
 We will continue with deficits that are 2-3 times what used
to be the historical record.
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Minimum Wage
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Recent Trends In Productivity
Source: BLS
More on Productivity and Labor Costs
Source: BLS
Obamacare Problems Still Developing
 Website still cannot communicate well with insurance companies.
 Website security still lacking.
 Insurance Bailout looms if the sign-ups are too old & sick.
 People are starting to discover issues with doctors, co-pays, etc.
 This will still be problem for Democrats for at least this year.
 Key next problem: what happens when people are asked to
pay their high deductibles and co-pays (or even their
premiums).
Georgia Budget Outlook
 Revenues for FY14 are +5.0% so far for FY14, exceeding the
4.6% needed for budget.
 February was up 5.3% with (sales + car title) taxes leading
the way (+6.5%).
 UGA looks to have gains in budgeted funds, a plus strong
capital budget, working now on raise pool.
Georgia Economic Outlook
 Georgia appears to be finally growing faster than the US
average again (after 5 years of slower growth).
 Georgia economy should grow at 3+% in 2014
 Personal and disposable income are both growing, so
consumer spending should increase in the 3-4% range
 Georgia is continuing to outperform right now at landing big
new job gains (Engineered Floors, State Farm, GM, AT&T,
Toyo, Hostess Brands, Tyson Foods).
Higher Education Funding
Higher Education Funding Sources, U.S., Fiscal Year 2011
 Here at UGA:
 State = 29%
 Tuition/fees = 25%
 Grants = 27%
 Sales/service/
Net Tuition
$54.7 Billion
39%
All State Support
$75.7 Billion
53%
Local Taxes
$8.9 Billion
6%
ARRA Funds
$2.8 Billion
2%
FY 2011: $142.1 Billion
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
auxiliary = 18%
For just resident
instruction it is:
State=34/Tuition=34
/Grants=32%
National Faculty Salary Situation
Doctorate-Granting Institutions
%
3
2.5
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
All
Private
Public
Source: College and University Professional Association for Human Resources
Tuition Trends
Public Four-Year
Colleges
% 6
5
 UGA has averaged a 9.4%
per year increase in tuition
and fees since 1999-2000
4
1982-92
1992-2002
2002-2012
3
2
1
0
Tuition Increases
Source: College Board
Table 5
Educational Appropriations per FTE (Constant Adjusted 2012 Dollars)
FY 2007
Georgia = -29.7%
5 year change
North Carolina = -12.5%
National avg = -23%
FY 2011
FY 2012
1 Year % Change
FY 2012 Index to US
Average
5 Year % Change
-29.2%
Alabama
$
8,267
$
6,129
$
5,855
-4.5%
0.99
Alaska
$
12,254
$
11,982
$
11,909
-0.6%
2.02
-2.8%
Arizona
$
7,028
$
5,569
$
4,567
-18.0%
0.77
-35.0%
Arkansas
$
8,196
$
7,214
$
6,873
-4.7%
1.16
-16.1%
California
$
8,929
$
7,678
$
6,577
-14.3%
1.11
-26.3%
Colorado
$
3,636
$
3,057
$
2,551
-16.6%
0.43
-29.9%
Connecticut
$
9,079
$
8,323
$
7,354
-11.6%
1.25
-19.0%
Delaware
$
6,290
$
4,688
$
4,663
-0.5%
0.79
-25.9%
Florida
$
8,649
$
6,031
$
5,130
-15.0%
0.87
-40.7%
Georgia
$
9,445
$
7,271
$
6,644
-8.6%
1.13
-29.7%
Hawaii
$
8,973
$
7,035
$
6,898
-2.0%
1.17
-23.1%
Idaho
$
9,232
$
6,663
$
5,661
-15.0%
0.96
-38.7%
Illinois
$
7,835
$
7,753
$
8,554
10.3%
1.45
9.2%
Indiana
$
5,180
$
4,262
$
4,258
-0.1%
0.72
-17.8%
Iowa
$
6,089
$
4,561
$
4,390
-3.8%
0.74
-27.9%
Kansas
$
5,891
$
5,048
$
4,647
-7.9%
0.79
-21.1%
Kentucky
$
8,608
$
7,379
$
6,959
-5.7%
1.18
-19.2%
Louisiana
$
7,766
$
7,440
$
5,551
-25.4%
0.94
-28.5%
Maine
$
6,762
$
6,266
$
6,071
-3.1%
1.03
-10.2%
Maryland
$
8,310
$
7,040
$
6,668
-5.3%
1.13
-19.8%
Massachusetts
$
7,518
$
5,700
$
5,259
-7.7%
0.89
-30.0%
Michigan
$
6,033
$
4,652
$
4,185
-10.0%
0.71
-30.6%
Minnesota
$
6,324
$
5,082
$
4,607
-9.4%
0.78
-27.2%
Mississippi
$
7,750
$
6,943
$
6,033
-13.1%
1.02
-22.2%
Missouri
$
6,803
$
5,314
$
4,984
-6.2%
0.84
-26.7%
Montana
$
4,258
$
4,254
$
4,007
-5.8%
0.68
-5.9%
Nebraska
$
7,628
$
7,018
$
6,933
-1.2%
1.17
-9.1%
Nevada
$
9,860
$
7,489
$
6,676
-10.9%
1.13
-32.3%
New Hampshire
$
3,213
$
2,726
$
1,583
-41.9%
0.27
-50.7%
New Jersey
$
7,814
$
6,487
$
6,051
-6.7%
1.02
-22.6%
New Mexico
$
9,618
$
7,750
$
7,430
-4.1%
1.26
-22.8%
New York
$
8,802
$
8,227
$
7,542
-8.3%
1.28
-14.3%
North Carolina
$
9,982
$
8,892
$
8,735
-1.8%
1.48
-12.5%
North Dakota
$
5,307
$
6,375
$
6,938
8.8%
1.17
30.7%
Ohio
$
4,997
$
4,213
$
3,663
-13.0%
0.62
-26.7%
Oklahoma
$
8,880
$
7,750
$
7,008
-9.6%
1.19
-21.1%
Oregon
$
5,663
$
4,415
$
3,851
-12.8%
0.65
-32.0%
Pennsylvania
$
5,674
$
4,675
$
3,875
-17.1%
0.66
-31.7%
Rhode Island
$
6,496
$
4,756
$
5,226
9.9%
0.88
-19.6%
South Carolina
$
7,339
$
4,886
$
4,515
-7.6%
0.76
-38.5%
South Dakota
$
5,188
$
4,733
$
4,195
-11.4%
0.71
-19.2%
Tennessee
$
8,145
$
6,951
$
5,582
-19.7%
0.95
-31.5%
Texas
$
8,457
$
8,046
$
7,938
-1.3%
1.34
-6.1%
Utah
$
6,583
$
5,129
$
4,830
-5.8%
0.82
-26.6%
Vermont
$
2,969
$
2,645
$
2,512
-5.0%
0.43
-15.4%
Virginia
$
6,505
$
5,323
$
4,272
-19.7%
0.72
-34.3%
Washington
$
7,345
$
5,576
$
4,788
-14.1%
0.81
-34.8%
West Virginia
$
5,778
$
5,596
$
5,575
-0.4%
0.94
-3.5%
Wisconsin
$
6,606
$
6,303
$
5,639
-10.5%
0.95
-14.6%
Wyoming
$
16,042
$
16,230
$
14,105
-13.1%
2.39
US
$
7,667
$
6,483
$
5,906
-8.9%
-12.1%
-23.0%
Florida = -40.7%
Outlook has to be
an improvement
compared to this
data.
Source: State Higher
Education Executive
Officers
And now … questions
 Thanks for listening !