TIGGE LAM PLAN
Eighth meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group
Geneva, 22 to 24 February 2010
Tiziana Paccagnella
CONTENT
 Brief introduction
 What has been done/ is being doing
 Links and cooperations
 Future
 TIGGE LAM Plan
Brief introduction TIGGE LAM
TIGGE-LAM was established to coordinate LAM EPS
activities, to support research on this area and to identify
and coordinate the LAM EPS contribution to TIGGE and
to the GIFS system.
TIGGE LAM activity is and will be developed by:
 providing guidelines
 coordinating activities
 fostering research
What has been done/ is being doing
(Metadata)
Information about
LAM EPS systems
Information collected through a
template based on the one
developd for TIGGE (by Ken)
About ten system on the TIGGE
LAM web site
25 systems on the list:
7
N. America
2
Africa
4
Asia
12 Europe
What has been done/ is being doing
Output parameter list defined
GRIB2 coding adopted following
TIGGE directives
GRIB2 specifics defined
Sub-set of HP parameters defined
for verification/research/end users
(i.e. hydrological applications)
Archiving of LAM EPS Products
What has been done/ is being doing
Output parameter list defined
GRIB2 coding adopted following
TIGGE directives
GRIB2 specifics defined
Sub-set of HP parameters defined
for verification/research/end users
(i.e. hydrological applications)
Archiving of LAM EPS Products
HP parameters will be interpolated
on a standard geographical lat/lon
grid at 0,1° resolution
HP parameters should be archived
at the three TIGGE Archiving
Centres, NCAR, ECMWF and
CMA
As regards the data access, the
same policy adopted by TIGGE
will be proposed with a reduction
of the delay from 48 hours to 24
hours.
What has been done/ is being doing
Activities toward archiving at
ECMWF started at the end of
2008.
Some problems related to GRIB2
coding; now solved.
Hopefully few weeks from now.
Letter to the data providers:
Archiving of LAM EPS Products
A draft was written (based on
the letter sent to ECMWF for
TIGGE).
Letter sent to Dave Burridge.
What has been done/ is being doing
I was decided it is necessary to
keep
the
best
possible
information content in the
Initial/Boundary
conditions
required by LAM EPS systems.
Initial/Boundary
conditions
should be provided on the
original computational grid.
Interoperability:
content and format of IC/BC
What has been done/ is being doing
Archiving of LAM EPS Products
SRNWP
Interoperability Project
Interoperability:
content and format of IC/BC
TIGGE LAM Parameters and coding specifics taken as starting point
Link : participation to the meetings and by e-mail
Transmission of information fror comments and feedbacks
What has been done/ is being doing:
Links and cooperations
Chairs of the Thorpex Regional Committee have been
contacted and keeped informed by e-mail
Deeper contacts with:
Thorpex Africa
submission of Amaranth Proposal
participation to the Trieste Meeting
Thorpex Europe
revision of the European THORPEX
Plan
What has been done/ is being doing:
Links and cooperations
Good link with EUMETNET SRNWP in Europe:

with the SRNWP/Interoperability Programme

with the SRNWP/ET on Predictability and EPS about
the EurEPS Programme under definition. Workshop in
Bologna at the end of March.
Link with Hymex: under development
Cooperation programme with WG Mesoscale Forecasting
under discussion > Contribution to the TIGGE LAM Plan
High resolution analiyses of Precipitation (and other
parameters)
TIGGE
DB
HR
Precipitation
Analyses
TIGGE
LAM
DB
Verification Package
Joint WG
Verif
High resolution analyses of Precipitation (and other
parameters)
TIGGE
DB
HR
Precipitation
Analyses
TIGGE
LAM
DB
Verification Package
Joint WG
Verif
Barbara suggested to produce a set of analyses based on different
available methologies:
ECMWF / VERA (MAP D Phase)/ ETH
This would give an estimate of the analysis error
High resolution analyses of Precipitation (and other
parameters)
TIGGE
DB
HR
Precipitation
Analyses
TIGGE
LAM
DB
Verification Package
Joint WG
Verif
Contacts with Anna Ghelli
Extension of the work she did with Laurie to include LAM
EPS in europe
Possibility to submit a Project to INTERREG IVC or to the
7th framework
Future actions
Thanks to the experience gained during the first period of
activity, it is clear that TIGGE LAM cannot coordinate on
a global scale.
Specific initiatives and applications must be organized at
regional levels with strong links with the THORPEX
Regional Committees. E.G. For each FDP, LAM EPS group
should be invited to contribute.
Future : Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel
After the first period of activity, is now necessary to give a
new structure to the Panel to facilitate the progress of
TIGGE-LAM. The key points are:
 To give more emphasis to the Regional component of TIGGE LAM
and to facilitate the focus on regional activities.
 To have Panel members who are in the position to give direct
contributions to the activities.
 To involve representatives of other working groups ?????
N.Am.
Africa
S.Am.
Asia
EU
Future
 TIGGE LAM regional sub-groups: better coordination with the
Thorpex Regional Committee and with regional initiatives
Hymex is one of these
 TIGGE LAM Plan
 Better focus on scientific issues and actions/activities
 GIFS FDP Regional Bottom up approach: better entrainment of the
TIGGE LAM component.
 LAM EPS group should be asked to produce the same products when
reasonable (integration area); TC tracks?, heavy precip.
 Set-up of cross-working group discussion and cooperation
programmes (WG Mesoscale Research, WGNE, Verification, SERA,...)
TIGGE LAM Plan
During the Monterey meeting, the Panel was requested by
the WWRP JSC to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the
main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE
LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining
specific activities related to these issues.
The Plan is still in progress.
After the completion of this plan, and the restructuring of the
Panel, a TIGGE LAM workshop should be organized to
discuss and address each of the Actions.
Some concepts
 The main added value from LAM EPS in the future will be probably
in the representation of phenomena at the convective-permitting scale
 Models and EPS systems are constantly changing and evolving. What
is not going to change so fast (neglecting climate change
considerations) are the HIW types and TIGGE LAM should contribute
to the definition of strategies and methodologies to improve their
predictability.
 The GIFS-TIGGE vision is focussed on the optimization of the use of
Ensemble Forecasting to maximize the forecast skill. TIGGE LAM is
intended to coordinate actions to evaluate which are the events whose
predictability can be improved by the use of LAM EPS.
Some concepts
 Going from global to LAM EPS, the process to represent
forecast uncertainty is more complicated since larger scale
perturbations interact with perturbations generated to
represent smaller scale errors typical of LAM systems.
 Many possibilities to generate and couple these
perturbations are tractable and it is almost impossible to
evaluate a-priori the best configurations of such complex
systems.
 This is an important reason to support coordinated
scientific actions to facilitate the achievement of
conclusive results.
TIGGE LAM Plan
Foreword
1. Limited Area Ensemble Prediction and TIGGE-LAM
2. Relationship between the GIFS-TIGGE WG and TIGGELAM.
3. Scientific Issues
4. Actions & Activities
References and reference documents
3.1.
3.2.
3.3.
3.3.1.
3.3.2.
3.3.3.
3.3.4.
3.4.
3.5.
3.6.
3.7.
3.8.
3.9.
3.10.
3.11.
Mesoscale predictability
Mesoscale model inadequacy
Interactions between larger scale perturbations
given by the driving global
systems and “local”
perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS.
Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial
conditions
Perturbations associated to soil/surface description
Cycling short-range uncertainty for inItial perturbations
Multi Model EPS
Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS
Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS
systems
and their benefit over
restricted
integration domains versus
the combination of
lower resolution ensemble systems
Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support
the
design of the future LAM EPS
systems.
Biases in deterministic models and calibration
Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications
Verification methods
Assess the probability of rare meteorological events
LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key
characteristics of a LAM EPS to best
represent short-r
range forecast error co variances for use in DA?
TIGGE Plan:
Scientific Issues
TIGGE Plan: Scientific Issues
3.1.
3.2.
3.3.
3.3.1.
3.3.2.
3.3.3.
3.3.4.
3.4.
3.5.
3.6.
3.7.
3.8.
3.9.
3.10.
3.11.
Mesoscale predictability
Mesoscale model inadequacy
Competition and interaction between larger scale perturbations
given by the driving global
systems and “local”
perturbations generated specifically for the LAM EPS.
Domain size and “local” perturbations on initial conditions
Perturbations associated to soil/surface description
Cycling short-range uncertainty for inItial perturbations
Multi Model EPS
Quantify the additional benefit of Multi-LAM EPS
Evaluate the performance of convective permitting EPS systems
and their benefit over
restricted integration domains versus
the combination of lower resolution ensemble systems
Predictability at the convection-resolving scale to support the
design of the future LAM EPS
systems.
Biases in deterministic models and calibration
Probabilistic forecasts for other modelling applications
Verification methods
Assess the probability of rare meteorological events
LAM EPS and Data Assimilation: which are the key
characteristics of a LAM EPS to best
represent short-range
forecast error co variances for use in DA?
Next steps ???:
Some more work following this
meeting
Collection of remarks,comments
and contribution from the
Panel, from the LAM EPS
groups,
Contributions from
the WG on Mesoscale
Reserach
the WG on verification
SERA
WGNE
Contributions from the Regional
TH. Comm.
TIGGE Plan:
Actions / Activities
 Action 0: Reorganization of the TIGGE LAM Panel GLOBAL
 Action 1: Set-up of cross-working group discussion between TIGGE-LAM, the
MWFR working group and the WGNE.
GLOBAL
 Action 2: Set-up of cross-working group discussion with the Verification
Working Group and SERA.
GLOBAL
 Action 3: Definition of the key requirements for regional ensemble
forecasting.
REGIONAL
 Action 4: Identification of possible Funding opportunities to support
the development and implementation of the Regional activities.
GLOBAL - -REGIONAL
 Action 5: Activate link with major mesoscale applications (hydrology).
REGIONAL
TIGGE Plan:
Actions / Activities
 Action 5:Set up of the TIGGE-LAM Database
GLOBAL - -REGIONAL
 Action 6: TIGGE LAM Data Policy
GLOBAL - -REGIONAL
 Action 7: Implementation of regional observational
dataset for objective verification of Mesoscale
Deterministic and Ensemble forecasting.
REGIONAL
 Action 8: Definition of further HIW related specific
products.
REGIONAL
TIGGE Plan:
Actions / Activities
 Action 9: Set up of specific projects and collaborations addressed to
the specific scientific issues (e.g. EU projects, HYMEX, )
GLOBAL - - REGIONAL
 Action 10: Coordinate the participation of LAM EPS groups to RDPs
and FDPs.
GLOBAL - - REGIONAL
 Action 11: Define standards to exchange meteorological fields
required as Initial and Boundary conditions – Interoperability
GLOBAL
 Action 12: Provide LAM EPS products in format compliant with GIFSTIGGE directives
GLOBAL
Suggestions? Comments? ………….………………
Some concepts
 A real advancement on Mesoscale forecasting must be
achieved by a strong coordination and cooperation with
the WWRP Mesoscale Research working Group and with
the WGNE group.
 Research activities must be defined to allow all the
numerical experimentation which is necessary to test and
improve LAM also addressing regional peculiarities
associates to the specific HIW types.
 As already well ongoing for TIGGE and the GIFS, it is
also essential to have a close link with the Verification
WG and with SERA to asses the quality and the added
value coming from LAM EPS.