Evidence contradicting Old Assumptions

Engaging the Future
A program supported by the Cleveland Foundation
The Roots of Innovation
First Workshop at the Cleveland Foundation
Monday, December 12th, 9:30pm – 1:30pm
Presented by EmcArts
Richard Evans, President
Melissa Dibble, Managing Director
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Opening exercise
Choose one card that
captures something
important about
a major persistent
challenge in audience
engagement your
organization is facing
Choose a second card
that captures what
your organization
would be like if your
challenge was
successfully addressed
Then…
Return to your home team, and explain why you selected each of your cards. Your
other team members offer their own perspectives on the cards, and what they see.
Then review the two sets of cards as a whole in your team.
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Technical vs. Adaptive Challenges
 Technical challenges can be solved via gradual
improvement in current practices – extensions of
business-as-usual rather than breakthrough change.
 Adaptive challenges have no set procedures, no
recognized experts, and no evident responses
available to meet the challenge or solve the problem.
“If you throw all the technical fixes you can at the problem
and the problem persists, it’s a pretty clear signal that an
underlying adaptive challenge still needs to be met.”
− Ronald Heifetz
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Our goals today
1
Investigate existing assumptions underlying
your audience engagement work and propose
some alternative hypotheses to drive new
thinking
2
Clearly describe and share your organization’s
adaptive challenges around audience
engagement
3
Share some of the practical lessons we’ve
learned from our work supporting innovation
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Our time together: The roots of innovation
 What is innovation?
 Question existing assumptions and identify contradictory
evidence
 Develop new hypotheses about future success
Break
 Practice describing your organization’s adaptive challenges,
and decide on one challenge to work with
 Outline follow-up activities you can do in your organizations
 Review the ETF timeline for 2012 and introduce the Incubating
Innovation opportunity
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
A Working Definition of Organizational
Innovation for Nonprofits
Innovations are instances of organizational
change that:
1. result from a shift in underlying
organizational assumptions
2. are discontinuous from previous practice
3. provide new pathways to creating public
value
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Questioning Existing
Assumptions about Success
Developing New
Hypotheses for the Future
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Questioning Organizational Assumptions
Edgar Schein:
“Assumptions evolve as repeated successful
solutions to problems. What was once a
questionable hypothesis about how to proceed
becomes a reality that is taken for granted…..”
“In order to innovate, organizations have to
resurrect, examine, and then break the frame
created by old assumptions.”
- from Leadership and Organizational Culture
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Shifting Our Underlying Assumptions
1
What established assumptions about
success for our organization are we
questioning?
2
What evidence is there that contradicts
these assumptions?
3
What new hypotheses about success
might fit better with the recent
evidence, and could drive new thinking?
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Shifts in Assumptions: Example 1
OLD ASSUMPTION:
Having our physical campus is the only way for us
to do our work.
CONTRARY EVIDENCE:
o The campus is large and expensive, navigation is
difficult for families, and it sucks resources into
maintenance and repairs.
o The campus is often under-utilized, and sometimes
over-crowded.
o Our small off-site programs are achieving local
engagement.
NEW HYPOTHESIS:
We can achieve our mission without having a single
central campus.
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Shifts in Assumptions: Example 2
OLD ASSUMPTION:
Selling whole-season subscriptions is the best way to
maximize our ticket revenue over time.
CONTRARY EVIDENCE:
o Subscription numbers are persistently down, but single ticket
sales are rising.
o Feedback tells us patrons want to decide close to the event.
o People are coming in large numbers to participatory events.
NEW HYPOTHESES:
A wholly new pricing structure, and focusing on single
tickets, will maximize revenue.
People will become loyal if we offer them more chance to
actively participate.
Moving from Old Assumptions: Worksheet
Example
Old Assumption
Evidence contradicting
the Assumption
Selling wholeseason
subscriptions is
the best way to
maximize our
ticket revenue
over time
 Subscription
numbers are
persistently down
 Feedback
tells us
patrons want to
decide close to the
event
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Evidence contradicting Old Assumptions: Example
Old
Assumption
Evidence contradicting Other Positive
the Assumption
Evidence
Selling wholeseason
subscriptions
is the best
way to
maximize our
ticket revenue
over time
 Subscription
numbers are
persistently down
 Feedback
tells us
patrons want to
decide close to the
event
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
 Single
ticket
sales are rising
 Our % occupancy
is holding up
 People are
coming in large
numbers to
participatory
activities
Developing New Hypotheses about Success
To develop a new hypothesis:
Use the current evidence – either negative or
positive – to make an informed prediction
Reverse your old assumption to discover a new
possibility: does this better fit the current
evidence?
Simply identify an alternative hypothesis
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Our Mindset in Responding to New Ideas
JUDGMENT
How does the idea stack up against my past experience?
MOVEMENT
What can we make of the idea?
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Courtesy of Edward
de Bono
New Hypotheses to build future success: Example
Contradictory
Evidence


Subscription
numbers are
persistently
down
Feedback tells us
patrons want to
decide close to
the event
Other Positive
Evidence
New Hypotheses

Single ticket
sales are rising

Our %
occupancy is
holding up
 A wholly new
pricing structure,
and focusing on
single tickets, will
maximize revenue

People are
coming in large
numbers to
participatory
activities
 People will become
loyal if we offer
them more chance
to actively
participate
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Describing Your
Adaptive Challenges
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Describing a Complex Challenge: Incompletely
 “Strengthen Marketing.”
 “Do more building repairs….”
 “We need to Raise More Money!”
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Template for a fuller challenge description
A two-part sentence:
The first part of the sentence establishes the most
important factors driving the issue….
 Identifies the particular conditions or trends that are the cause
 Refers to actual data (not just speculation or blaming)
Then the second part proposes a possible adaptive
response that addresses the driving factors….
 Active rather than passive
 Suggests something you might be able to do something about
 Is not an extension of existing strategies or behaviors
 Is built on a new hypothesis about success
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Describing a Complex Challenge, with a Technical
Solution - Examples
Strengthen Marketing
“Because subscriptions are down and people are booking closer
to the event, we therefore need to offer them better incentives
to commit to the season in advance.”
Do more building repairs…..
“Because our campus is old, confusing and inefficiently used,
we therefore need to invest in upgrading facilities and signage.”
We need to Raise more Money!
“As our expenses continue to grow faster than our income, and
we experience persistent annual losses, so our organization
must generate more income and implement stronger cost
controls.”
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Describing a Complex Challenge, with an Adaptive
Response - Examples
Strengthen Marketing
“Because subscriptions are down and people are booking closer
to the event, we therefore need a completely different pricing
system and to build loyalty through direct participation.”
Do more building repairs…..
“Because our campus is old, confusing and inefficiently used,
we therefore need to leverage our off-campus successes into a
new kind of home.”
We need to Raise more Money!
“As our expenses continue to grow faster than our income, and
we experience persistent annual losses, so our organization
must overcome its increasing aversion to risk.”
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Describe your Key Adaptive Challenges
Because…. [EVIDENCE from Wksht #1 column 2,
and Wksht #2 column 1] (establishes the most
important factors driving the issue)
Therefore…. [NEW HYPOTHESIS from Wksht #2
column 2] (proposes a possible adaptive response)
“Because our subscription numbers are
persistently down, feedback tells us patrons
want to make decisions close to the event, and
participatory activities attract people, we will
therefore maximize revenues in the future by
pricing in a wholly new way, and offering
opportunities for active participation.”
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Criteria for selecting an organizational challenge
1. The challenge is complex and adaptive; it does not have any
standard or established solution.
2. We either have not yet developed a response to this
challenge, or our current responses aren’t proving effective.
3. There is a sense of urgency to address this challenge.
4. If we successfully tackle it, it is likely to have significant
impact on our ability to fulfill our mission.
5. Is there a natural sequence to addressing these challenges?
If so, which one comes first?
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Back home after the Workshop
 Enroll your colleagues to this work – repeat
the exercises with others
 Use techniques to generate new strategy
ideas
 Respond to Annabel Jackson’s evaluation
survey
 Take a look at our new arts innovation website
(www.ArtsFwd.org)
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
ETF Timeline for 2012
and
Incubating Innovation
opportunity
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
ETF Timeline: 2012
 Jan – Feb: Next round of site visits by EmcArts;
circulation of Rubric of Adaptive Capacity
 Jan: Proposals for Incubating Innovation accepted
 February: Incubating Innovation (Round 1) starts
 February 7: First Informal ETF Participant Convening
 March 6: Second ETF Workshop (The Capacity to
Innovate)
 April: Continued site visits by EmcArts; Alan Brown
begins phone interviews
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
ETF Timeline: 2012
 May 22: Third ETF Workshop (The Practice of
Innovation)
 June - Aug: Participatory interview training
 July 9: Second Informal ETF Participant Convening
 August: Incubating Innovation (Round 1) ends; first
ETF podcast
 September: Proposals for Incubating Innovation
(Round 2) accepted
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Incubating Innovation: Resources
 A specially constructed Innovation Team at each
organization (~10 members), meeting 5 times
 An EmcArts process facilitator for up to 15 days
 EmcArts financial analysis and community
interviews
 $1,500 toward work with an identified Content
Expert
 $10,000 towards prototyping costs
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
The Sequence of Five Stages
1. Assessing the current situation and identifying
challenges (Weeks 1 – 4)
2. Developing innovative strategies (Weeks 5 – 8)
3. Assessing the capacities needed (Weeks 9 – 12)
4. Testing new strategies and learning from
experiments (Weeks 12 – 18)
5. Prototyping new strategies and planning fuller
implementation (Weeks 19 – 28)
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org
Engaging the Future
A program supported by the Cleveland Foundation
The Roots of Innovation
First Workshop at the Cleveland Foundation
Monday, December 12th, 9:30pm – 1:30pm
Presented by EmcArts
Richard Evans, President
Melissa Dibble, Managing Director
EmcArts Inc. | 127 West 122nd Street | New York, NY 10027 | www.EmcArts.org