0DRAFT
Food security situation in Bangladesh: the recent food price rise
perspectives1
Food production scenario
Bangladesh has made a commendable progress in food production in the last one and a
half decades (1991/92 - 2006/7). The progress was in rice only, because wheat, the
second largest cereal in Bangladesh, but comprising only 6-7% of total, showed a steady
negative growth from 1998/99. Yet, the total net foodgrain production (after 10%
deduction from gross production for seed, feed and wastage) increased from 17.4 million
metric tons (mMT) in 1991/92 to 25.2 mMT in 2006/07, at an average annual growth rate
of 9% which surpassed the population growth rate of 7.8% over the same period of time.
This means, the net per capita foodgrain (rice) availability increased during this time,
from 453 g to 540 g/day, which is, however, far above the nutritionally desirable amount.
This total food production increase between 1991/92 and 2006/07 is almost entirely
attributable to the increase that occurred between 1996/97 and 2000/01 (growth rate
8.0%), because production between 1991/92 and 1995/96 remained almost stagnant and
that between 2001/02 to 2006/07 only increased at a rate of 0.8% (Figure 1).
Fig. 1: Foodgrain production in Bangladesh,
1991-2007 (FPMU/MoFDM, 2008)
Total, gross
Wheat, gross
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Million metric tons - wheat
Rice, gross
0
19
91
19 -92
92
19 -93
93
19 -94
94
19 -95
95
19 -96
96
19 -97
97
19 -98
98
19 -99
99
20 -00
00
20 -01
01
20 -02
02
20 -03
03
20 -04
04
20 -05
05
20 -06
06
-0
7
Million metric tons - rice
Total, net
The production of fruits, vegetables and all kinds of animal food (meat, egg, milk and
fish) also increased during the last 15 years at varying rates, but not enough to meet
nutritional requirements. Pulses, once known as the “poor man’s meat” as well as oil
seeds, known as the most energy-dense food, showed a rather steep fall in growth.
1
Prepared by Harun K.M. Yusuf, Nutrition Advisor and Lalita Bhattacharjee, Nutritionist, FAO-National
Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
0DRAFT
Food consumption trends
Rice is the staple food in Bangladesh, comprising over 50% by weight and nearly 80% by
calorie of the total food. In the cereal group, some wheat is also taken, but it comprises
only 6-7% of total cereal volume. A look at the food intake pattern from 1991 to 2005
would show that with the increase in food production and an improvement of socioeconomic status of the people during this period, the total per capita food intake in
Bangladesh has increased slightly, by 6.9%, but, interestingly, the intake of cereals shows
a slow decreasing trend (total by 9.5%, rice by 6.4% and wheat by 52.3%)(Figure 2). The
lower intake of cereals is accompanied by increased intakes of non-cereal food items,
particularly meat, egg, potato, fruits and vegetables (Figure 3), indicating positive
transition towards dietary diversification.
Fig. 2: Changing food intake pattern in Bangladesh,
1991-2005 (BBS HIES)
1991-92
1995-96
2000
2005
g/capita/day
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Total food
Rice
Wheat
Total cereal Total noncereal
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Fig. 3: Increases in intake of some food items in
Bangladesh, 1991-2005 (BBS HIES)
Meat and Egg
Milk
Fish
Potato
Fruits
70
g/capita/day
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1991-92
1995-96
2000
2005
Food price rise during 1991-2005 and during 2006-2007: Impact on consumption
and nutrition of the poor
(Josephine: We have not yet prepared the text for the tables, but they
are self-explanatory, as you can see)
Table 1. Percentage increase in prices of major foods in Dhaka city, 1991-2005
Food
1991-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
1991-2005
Annual
incremental
rate (%)
Rice
Atta
Pulses
Edible oil
Beef
Mutton
Chicken
Egg
Fish
Milk
23.45
15.13
40.28
28.46
0.0
31.2
38.8
19.14
93.5
-
-1.1
-5.5
-2.9
-21.4
33.3
14.7
23.0
3.78
17.5
-
50.1
42.5
13.0
31.0
30.5
18.9
-32.1
16.3
-22.3
-
83.3
55.1
54.0
32.4
74.0
79.0
38.9
43.9
76.8
12.41
5.53
3.67
3.60
2.16
4.93
5.26
2.59
2.92
5.12
0.82
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Source of price: Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) for Dhaka city
Table 2. Percentage increase in prices of major foods in Dhaka city, January 2006December 2007
Food
January
2006December
2006
January
2007July
2007
July
2007December
2007
January
2007December
2007
January
2006December
2007
Annual
incremental
rate, 20062007 (%)
Rice,
6.0
14.6
14.7
31.5
40.2
20.1
coarse
Rice,
0.0
21.3
33.3
61.7
64.0
32.0
fine
Atta
30.8
27.4
16.9
49.0
94.9
47.45
Pulses
40.7
7.2
5.7
13.4
52.7
26.35
Oil,
32.4
8.0
18.2
27.7
68.5
34.25
soybean
Oil,
14.3
62.5
0.0
62.5
85.7
42.85
mustard
Oil,
23.8
33.3
18.0
57.4
102.4
51.2
palm
Beef
25.0
20.0
0.0
20.0
50.0
25.0
Mutton
33.3
4.0
0.0
4.0
44.4
22.2
Chicken, 25.9
3.4
2.0
5.5
32.9
16.45
wild
Chicken, 7.1
-7.4
-3.4
-10.5
21.4
10.7
farm
Egg
17.6
15.8
4.5
21.0
35.2
17.6
Milk
21.4
0.0
11.7
11.7
35.7
17.85
Fish
9.9
10.2
-3.5
6.4
19.7
9.85
Source of price: Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) for Dhaka city
Table 3. Percentage decrease in calorie and protein value for money from major
foods in Dhaka city, 2006-2007 (authors’ own calculation)
Food
January
2006December
2006
January
2007- July
2007
Calorie value (kcal/Taka)
Rice,
5.7
12.8
coarse
Rice, fine 1.4
17.6
Atta
23.6
21.6
Pulses
29.0
6.8
Oil,
24.5
7.5
July 2007December
2007
January
2007December
2007
January
2006December
2007
Annual
depreciation
rate, 20062007 (%)
12.8
24.0
28.7
14.35
25.0
14.5
5.4
15.5
38.2
32.9
11.8
21.8
39.0
48.7
34.5
40.7
19.5
24.35
17.25
20.35
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soybean
Protein value (g/Taka)
Beef
19.8
Mutton
25.5
Chicken,
21.1
wild
Chicken,
6.5
farm
Egg
14.8
Milk
18.4
Fish
8.7
16.6
3.8
3.1
0.0
0.0
1.6
16.6
3.8
4.6
33.2
30.9
24.7
16.6
15.45
12.35
+8.1
+3.4
+11.8
11.7
5.85
14.3
0.0
9.7
4.2
10.0
+3.1
17.9
10.0
7.0
26.3
26.5
17.3
13.15
13.25
8.65
Table 4: Cost of the food bundle consumed by bottom (1st) expenditure quintile in
Dhaka city (1991-2007)
Food
bundle
Consumption
(g/capita/day)**
1991
1995
Rice
364
5.24
Atta
15
0.18
Pulses
12
0.30
Vegetables* 140
1.96
Edible oil
9
0.35
Fish
20
2.32
Egg
3
0.18
Meat
4
0.30
Milk
3
0.07
Fruit
11
0.30
Spices
35
1.38
Total
616
12.58
% change
*Includes potato; **BBS; ***CAB
6.47
0.21
0.42
2.28
0.45
4.49
0.21
0.41
0.07
0.30
1.85
17.16
+36.4
Cost (Taka)***
2000
2005
6.40
0.20
0.40
2.33
0.35
5.28
0.22
0.50
0.07
0.30
1.69
17.74
+3.3
6.58
0.28
0.49
3.02
0.46
4.10
0.25
0.57
0.08
0.30
1.98
18.11
+2.1
Dec2006
8.05
0.38
0.72
2.87
0.65
4.76
0.25
0.62
0.10
0.30
2.67
21.37
+18.0
Dec2007
10.64
0.57
0.78
3.65
0.83
5.18
0.26
0.70
0.11
0.33
2.83
25.88
+21.1
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Monthly food expenditure of poor households in
Bangladesh urban setting
Bottom 20%, Dhaka city
Urban Bangladesh - HIES
Taka/household/month
4500
3882
4000
3756
3276
3500
3205
3175
3000
2574
2500
2000
2159
2661
2716
2000
2005
1887
1500
1991
1995
Dec-06
Dec-07
Share of rice expenditure in total income by
income quintile, Feb 2006 - Feb 2008
(Source: BBS HIES 2005)
Percentage
2006 Feb
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2007 Feb
2008 Feb
92.3
79.5
69.5
69.2
55.9
63.1
51
38
34.7
1st (<Tk
2250)
2nd (Tk
2251-3500)
43.2
35
35.5
3rd (Tk 3501- 4th (Tk 50015000)
9000)
Income quintile
48.9
27.3
26.9
5th (>Tk
9000)
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Conclusions
 Between 1991-2005, there were two distinct periods of food price rise, one
between 1991-1995 and the other between 2000-2005.
 The period between 1995-2000 is characterized by stable food price, in line
with food production.
 Rise in price of food commodities in 2007, which is still continuing in 2008,
will have serious impacts on food consumption and nutrition of the low
income groups, particularly in the low fixed income groups.
 There are lower returns in nutrition for money owing to the reduced real
income and reduced purchasing power resulting in an inadequate diet ( poor
quantity and quality).
 It is estimated that the total food, calorie and nutrient intake of the poor will
have been cut by 25-30% between 2006 and 2007. Estimates for 2008 are
being analyzed.
Recommendations
 The lesson learned this year: from the tightening global food market and the
response of food exporting countries, Bangladesh must augment its domestic
food production and productivity through all possible intensified agriculture
inputs. Government must allocate appropriate funds in the next budgets.
 Put in place monitoring systems to ensure that safety net programmes are
reaching households that are most in need.
 Expand scope of food/cash for work programmes, with proper targeting.

Open/set up fair price shops for the needy, possibly supplied through the
sale of government-held grain stocks.
 Provide incentives (e.g. tax breaks) for private sector firms that provide their
workers with free or subsidized daily meals.
 Establish mechanisms on the ground so that farmers are not forced to sell
produce below the minimum support price
 Promote dietary diversification strategies and implement mass media
awareness programmes to encourage low cost non-rice commodities in the
diet (potato, banana, seasonal fruits, indigenous fish, etc).