BANCO DE PORTUGAL
Economic Research Department
THE CAREERS OF TOP MANAGERS
AND FIRM OPENNESS: INTERNAL
VERSUS EXTERNAL LABOUR MARKETS
Francisco Lima
Mário Centeno
WP 15-03
October 2003
The analyses, opinions and findings of these papers represent the views of the
authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal.
Please address correspondence to Francisco Lima, Instituto Superior Técnico,
Departamento de Engenharia e Gestão, Av. Prof. Cavaco Silva, Taguspark, 2780-990
Porto Salvo, Portugal; email: [email protected] or Mário Centeno, Economic Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Av. Almirante Reis nº 71, 1150-165
Lisboa, Portugal, Tel.#351-213130837; Fax#351-213107804;
email: [email protected].
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frqwulexwh wr wkh olnholkrrg ri ehlqj fkrvhq1
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H
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surprwlrq ghflvlrq sureohp1
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ri ohhzd| wr euhdn wkh ; |hduv ri gdwd dydlodeoh lqwr wkuhh shulrgv1 Wkhuh lv dq
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wkh shulrg vkrxog eh orqj hqrxjk vr wkdw surprwlrqv rffxu dqg wkh hhfw ri qr
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sduwlwlrqv ri wkh ; shulrgv lq wkuhh shulrgv dqg wkh rqh suhvhqwhg zdv wkh rqh wkdw
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odwh0ehjlqqhuv dqg orvhuv1
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S ureEsurp2msurp1 Lq wkh vdph zd|/ wkh frqglwlrqdo surprwlrq suredelolw|
lq wkh wklug shulrg +wzr |hduv, lv S ureEsurpmsurp> surp21 Ilqdoo|/ wkh
xqfrqglwlrqdo suredelolw| ri wkh revhuyhg fkrlfh dw wkh erwwrp ohyho +fruuh0
vsrqglqj wr wkh odvw shulrg, lv
S ureEsurp> surp2> surp ' S ureEsurpmsurp> surp2 S ureEsurp2msurp S ureEsurp
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surprwh ru qrw wr surprwh dq hpsor|hh lq rughu wr pd{lpl}h wkh up remhfwlyh
ixqfwlrq1 Xs xqwlo shulrg wkuhh/ zh fdq lghqwli| irxu fduhhu w|shv= wkh orvhu d wrs pdqdjhu zkr lv qrw surprwhg lq wkh uvw wzr shulrgv> wkh hduo| vwduwhu
surprwhg lq shulrg rqh dqg qrw surprwhg lq shulrg wzr> wkh odwh ehjlqqhu
qrw surprwhg lq shulrg rqh/ exw surprwhg lq shulrg wzr> dqg wkh fkdpslrq
zrunhuv surprwhg lq shulrg rqh dqg djdlq lq shulrg wzr1
Irupdoo|/ wkh wkuhh ohyho qhvwhg orjlw prgho prglhg wr rxu vshflfdwlrq lv
dv iroorzv1 Zh vwduw e| lqgh{lqj wkh uvw0ohyho dowhuqdwlyh dv l/ wkh vhfrqg0
ohyho dowhuqdwlyh dv m/ dqg wkh erwwrp0ohyho dowhuqdwlyh dv n1 Ohw [lmn / \lm
dqg ]l uhihu wr wkh yhfwru ri h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv vshflf wr hdfk ri wkh
wkuhh fdwhjrulhv El> m> n/ El> m dqg El/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Zh zdqw wr hvwlpdwh wkh
iroorzlqj suredelolwlhv=
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lv wkh pdlq glvwlqfwlyh ihdwxuh ri wkh prgho1
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dorqj zlwk wkh lqfoxvlyh ydoxhv iru wkh wzr fdwhjrulhv wkdw ghqh d ghflvlrq
qrgh rq wkh zrunhu*v surprwlrq sdwk1 Wkh lqfoxvlyh ydoxh uhsuhvhqwv wkh xwlolw|
ri kdylqj doo wkh ixwxuh surprwlrq ghflvlrqv dydlodeoh dw hdfk qrgh1 Li wkh
frh!flhqw ri wkh lqfoxvlyh ydoxh lv rqh wkhuh lv qr qhvwlqj ri wkh ghflvlrqv dqg
wkh suredelolw| ri ehlqj surprwhg lq shulrg wkuhh lv mxvw wkh xqfrqglwlrqdo
suredelolw| ri ehlqj surprwhg lq hdfk shulrg/ zklfk lv vlpso| wkh surgxfw ri
wkh surprwlrq suredelolwlhv lq hdfk shulrg1
Wkh uhvxowv iurp wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh qhvwhg orjlw prgho duh suhvhqwhg lq
Wdeoh 71 Lq wkh uvw ohyho zh lqfoxgh lqglylgxdo vshflf yduldeohv djh/ hgx0
fdwlrq dqg wlph vlqfh odvw surprwlrq dqg up vshflf yduldeohv sruwv ri
hqwu| lqglfdwru/ orj qxpehu ri zrunhuv dqg orj qxpehu ri wrs pdqdjhuv1 Wkh
vhfrqg dqg wklug ohyhov lqfoxgh wkh hgxfdwlrq/ sruwv ri hqwu| dqg orj qxpehu
ri wrs pdqdjhuv yduldeohv1 Wkh yduldeohv djh dqg wlph vlqfh odvw surprwlrq
zhuh h{foxghg iurp ohyhov wzr dqg wkuhh vlqfh wkh vhtxhqwldo vwuxfwxuh ri wkh
hpslulfdo prgho dffrxqwv iru wkhlu hyroxwlrq1
Lqvhuw Wdeoh 7 khuh
Lq wkh vshflfdwlrq ri wkh prgho suhvhqwhg lq Wdeoh 7 wkh lqfoxvlyh ydoxh*v
sdudphwhuv duh glhuhqw iurp rqh/ frquplqj wkh ydolglw| ri wkh sursrvhg
hfrqrphwulf prgho1 f Dgglwlrqdoo|/ wkh hvwlpdwhg lqfoxvlyh ydoxh sdudphwhuv
duh doo zlwklq wkh xqlw lqwhuydo/ d qhfhvvdu| frqglwlrq iru frqvlvwhqf| ehwzhhq
wkh qhvwhg orjlw prgho dqg UXP/ dv vkrzq lq PfIdgghq +4<:;,1 Wkh OU whvw
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iru h{dpsoh/ Srlulhu +4<<9, dqg wkh uhihuhqfhv wkhuhlq iru d glvfxvvlrq1
53
uhsruwhg dw wkh erwwrp ri wkh wdeoh lv d whvw iru wkh qhvwlqj +khwhurvnhgdvwlflw|,
djdlqvw wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv ri krprvnhgdvwlflw|1 Lw frpsxwhv wkh glhuhqfh
ehwzhhq wkh olnholkrrg ri d qrq0qhvwhg frqglwlrqdo orjlw prgho djdlqvw wkh
qhvwhg orjlw prgho olnholkrrg1 Wkh vwdwlvwlf kdv d ydoxh ri 4/;;;14 wkdw fohduo|
vxssruwv wkh xvh ri wkh qhvwhg orjlw prgho zlwk wkhvh gdwd1
Wkh lpsdfw ri up rshqqhvv lq wkh surprwlrq suredelolw| lv fohduo| glhuhqw
iru glhuhqw fduhhu sdwkv lqvlgh wkh up1 Wkh prvw lqwhuhvwlqj uhvxowv duh wkrvh
uhodwhg wr wkh surprwlrq suredelolwlhv ri odwh ehjlqqhuv yhuvxv hduo| vwduwhuv1
Wkh wrs pdqdjhuv zkr zhuh surprwhg lq wkh uvw shulrg exw qrw lq wkh vhfrqg
+hduo| vwduwhuv, duh pruh olnho| wr qrw eh surprwhg lq wkh wklug shulrg lq upv
wkdw kdyh h{solflw sruwv ri hqwu|1 Wkh uhyhuvh lv wuxh iru wkrvh fodvvlhg dv odwh
ehjlqqhuv> wkhvh duh pruh olnho| wr eh surprwhg lq wkh wklug shulrg lq upv
kdylqj LOPv1 Lq upv kdylqj sruwv ri hqwu| wkh suredelolw| ri d odwh ehjlqqhu
ehlqj surprwhg lv qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo| glhuhqw iurp wkh suredelolw| ri dq hduo|
vwduwhu qrw ehlqj surprwhg wkh whvw ri htxdolw| ri wkh wzr frh!flhqwv fdqqrw
eh uhmhfwhg1 Pruhryhu/ li zh frpsduh wkh suredelolw| ri surprwlrq ri lqglylg0
xdov fodvvlhg dv odwh ehjlqqhuv dqg hduo| vwduwhuv zh fdqqrw dffhsw wkh qxoo
k|srwkhvhv ri htxdolw|1 Wkhvh uhvxowv vkrz wkdw wkh fduhhu ri d zrunhu lqvlgh
dq rujdql}dwlrq lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh up*v LOP fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/
upv zlwk LOP ihdwxuhv vkrz kljkhu lqflghqfh ri d odwh ehjlqqhu hhfw1
8
Glvfxvvlrq dqg frqfoxvlrqv
Zh vwxg| wkh surprwlrq srolflhv ri wrs pdqdjhuv iurp d odujh vdpsoh ri
Sruwxjxhvh frpsdqlhv1 Zh kdyh irxqg wkdw +l, d surprwlrq hyhqw lv qhjdwlyho|
lq xhqfhg e| whqxuh lq wkh up exw dw ghfuhdvlqj udwhv> +ll, wkh orqjhu d wrs
54
pdqdjhu uhpdlqv zlwkrxw d surprwlrq/ wkh ohvv olnho| vkh lv wr eh surprwhg/
exw wklv suredelolw| vwduwv wr slfn xs diwhu vrph wlph lq wkh wrs udqn ri wkh
up zlwkrxw d surprwlrq> +lll, pruh rshq upv wkrvh wkdw kdyh zhdnhu
lqwhuqdo oderxu pdunhwv duh ohvv olnho| wr surprwh lqvlghuv1 Dovr/ odujhu
frpsdqlhv zlwk odujhu pdqdjhu udqnv kdyh kljkhu surprwlrq udwhv/ wkxv d pl{
ri ohduqlqj prgho hhfwv dqg h!flhqf| dujxphqwv pljkw eh qhhghg wr ixoo|
h{sodlq wkh revhuyhg surprwlrq sdwwhuqv= rq rqh kdqg wkhuh lv wkh surfhvv ri
hpsor|hu*v ohduqlqj derxw wkh hpsor|hhv* delolwlhv> rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wkhuh
duh wkh lqwhuqdo surfhgxuhv wkdw dlp dw surylglqj lqfhqwlyhv wr wkh hpsor|hhv*1
Frqfhuqlqj wkh wrs pdqdjhuv* fduhhu g|qdplfv/ wkh uhvxowv doorz xv wr lghq0
wli| irxu w|shv ri fduhhu surjuhvvlrq= wkh orvhuv/ wkh hduo| vwduwhuv/ wkh odwh
ehjlqqhuv/ dqg wkh fkdpslrqv1 Dffruglqj wr d prgho ri ohduqlqj lqvlgh wkh
up/ zh h{shfw wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d odwh ehjlqqhu hhfw= pdqdjhuv qrw surprwhg
lq wkh uvw shulrg exw surprwhg lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg kdyh pruh fkdqfhv wr
eh surprwhg lq wkh ixwxuh wkdq pdqdjhuv surprwhg hduolhu lq wkh up1 Wkh
qhvwhg orjlw uhvxowv vkrz wkdw wklv ghshqgv rq wkh ghjuhh ri lqwhuqdo oderxu
pdunhw lq wkh up1 Lq upv wkdw xvh sruwv ri hqwu| wkh odwh ehjlqqhu hhfw
lv fohduhu1 Wklv lv dq lqwhuhvwlqj uhvxow jlyhq wkdw lw vkrzv wkh lpsruwdqfh ri
rshqqhvv lq wkh ohduqlqj hhfw rq surprwlrqv1
Ixwxuh uhvhdufk vkrxog h{whqg wklv dqdo|vlv wr wkh frqvlghudwlrq ri zdjh g|0
qdplfv dvvrfldwhg zlwk surprwlrq hyhqwv1 Wklv lv dq lpsruwdqw wrslf vlqfh wkh
lqvxodwlrq ri zrunhuv iurp wkh h{whuqdo oderxu pdunhw fdq eh wkh uhvxow ri d
zdjh srolf| wkdw/ dorqj zlwk vshflf surprwlrq srolflhv/ lqfuhdvhv zdjhv deryh
wkrvh ri wkh rxwvlgh pdunhw1
55
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Duljd/ N1/ \1 Rknxvd/ dqg J1 Euxqhoor/ 4<<</ Idvw Wudfn= Lv lw lq wkh
JhqhvB Wkh Surprwlrq Srolf| ri d Odujh Mdsdqhvh Ilup/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf
Ehkdylrxu dqg Rujdql}dwlrq 6;= 6;807351
^5` Ednhu/ J1/ P1 Jleev/ dqg E1 Kropvwurp/ 4<<7d/ Wkh Lqwhuqdo Hfrqrplfv ri
wkh Ilup= Hylghqfh iurp Shuvrqqho Gdwd/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43<=
;;40 <4<1
^6` bbbbbbbb/ 4<<7e/ Wkh Zdjh Srolf| ri d Ilup/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri
Hfrqrplfv 43<= <540 881
^7` Ehfnhu/ J1/ 4<95/ Lqyhvwphqw lq Kxpdq Fdslwdo= D Wkhruhwlfdo Dqdo|vlv/
Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| 85= <07<1
^8` Ehuqkdugw/ G1/ 4<<8/ Vwudwhjlf Surprwlrq dqg Frpshqvdwlrq/ Uhylhz ri
Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv 95= 64806<1
^9` Errwk/ D1 O1/ P1 Iudqfhvfrql/ dqg M1 Iudqn/ 5335 D Vwlfn| Iorruv Prgho ri
Surprwlrq/ Sd|/ dqg Jhqghu/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 7:= 5<806551
^:` Eryhu/ R1/ P1 Duhoodqr/ dqg V1 Ehqwrolod/ 5335 Xqhpsor|phqw Gxudwlrq/
Ehqhw Gxudwlrq dqg wkh Exvlqhvv F|foh/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo 445= 5560981
^;` Fdeudo/ O1 P1 E1 dqg M1 Pdwd/ 5336/ Rq wkh Hyroxwlrq ri wkh Ilup Vl}h
Glvwulexwlrq= Idfwv dqg Wkhru|/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <6= 43:80<31
^<` Fkldssrul/ S10D1/ E1 Vdodqlì dqg M1 Ydohqwlq/ 4<<</ Hduo| Vwduwhuv yv Odwh
Ehjlqqhuv/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| 43:= :640;81
^43` Grhulqj/ S1 dqg P1 Slruh/ 4<:4/ Lqwhuqdo Oderxu Pdunhwv dqg Pdqsrzhu
Dqdo|vlv/ Oh{lqjwrq/ PD= G/ F/ Khdwk dqg Frpsdq|1
56
^44` Hulnvvrq/ W1/ 4<<</ H{hfxwlyh Frpshqvdwlrq dqg Wrxuqdphqw Wkhru|=
Hpslulfdo Whvwv rq Gdqlvk Gdwd/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ 4: +5,= 5950
;31
^45` Jleerqv/ U1 dqg P1 Zdogpdq/ 4<<<d/ D Wkhru| ri Zdjh Surprwlrqv G|qdplfv
Lqvlgh Ilupv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 447= 465408;1
^46` bbbbbbbb/ 4<<<e/ Fduhhuv lq Rujdql}dwlrqv= Wkhru| dqg Hylghqfh/ Lq
Kdqgerrn ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv/ +hg,/ Ruoh| Dvkhqihowhu dqg Gdylg Fdug/
Dpvwhugdp= Hovhylhu1
^47` Khlvv/ I1/ 5335/ Vshflfdwlrq+v, ri Qhvwhg Orjlw Prghov/ Pdqkhlp Xqlyhuvlw|/
Zrunlqj Sdshu 49053351
^48` Nqdss/ W1 D1/ H1 Q1 Zklwh/ dqg G1H1 Fodun/ 5334/ D Qhvwhg Orjlw Dssurdfk
wr Krxvhkrog Prelolw|/ Mrxuqdo ri Uhjlrqdo Vflhqfh 74= 40551
^49` Mrydqrylf/ E1/ 4<:</ Mre Pdwfklqj dqg wkh Wkhru| ri Wxuqryhu/ Mrxuqdo ri
Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| ;:= 45790931
^4:` Od}hdu/ H1/ 4<:</ Zk| Lv Wkhuh Pdqgdwru| Uhwluhphqw/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo
Hfrqrp| ;:= 45940;71
^4;` Od}hdu/ H1/ 4<<</ Shuvrqqho Hfrqrplfv= Sdvw Ohvvrqv dqg Ixwxuh Gluhfwlrqv/
Mrxuqdo ri Oderu Hfrqrplfv 4: +5,=4<<05691
^4<` Od}hdu/ H1/ 5337/ Wkh Shwhu Sulqflsoh= D Wkhru| ri Ghfolqh/ Mrxuqdo ri
Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| 445= V4740V961
^53` Od}hdu/ H1 dqg S1 R|hu/ 5336/ Lqwhuqdo dqg H{whuqdo Oderu Pdunhwv= D
Shuvrqqho Hfrqrplfv Dssurdfk/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu 434<51
^54` Od}hdu/ H1/ dqg V1 Urvhq/ 4<;4/ Udqn0Rughu Wrxuqdphqwv dv Rswlpdo Oderxu
Frqwudfwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| ;<= ;740971
57
^55` Olpd/ I1 dqg S1 W1 Shuhlud/ 5336/ Fduhhuv dqg Zdjh zlwklq Odujh Ilupv=
hylghqfh iurp d pdwfkhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhw/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Mrxuqdo
ri Pdqsrzhu 5:= ;450681
^56` PfFxh/ N1/ 4<<9/ Surprwlrqv dqg Zdjh Jurzwk/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderxu
Hfrqrplfv 47= 4:8053<1
^57` PfIdgghq/ G1/ 4<:6/ Frqglwlrqdo Orjlw Dqdo|vlv ri Txdolwdwlyh Fkrlfh
Ehkdylru/ lq S1 ]duhpnd +hg1, Iurqwlhuv lq Hfrqrphwulfv1 Qhz \run/ Dfdghplf
Suhvv1
^58` PfIdgghq/ G1 4<:;/ Txdqwlwdwlyh Phwkrgv iru Dqdo|}lqj Wudyho Ehkdylrxu ri
Lqglylgxdov= Vrph uhfhqw ghyhorsphqwv/ lq G1 Khqvkhu dqg S1 Vwrskhu +hgv1,
Ehkdylrudo Wudyho Prghoolqj1 Furrp Khop/ Orqgrq
^59` PfIdgghq/ G1/ 4<;5/ Hfrqrphwulf Prghov ri Suredelolvwlf Fkrlfh/ lq F1
Pdqvnl dqg G1 PfIdgghq +hg1, Vwuxfwxudo Dqdo|vlv ri Glvfuhwh Gdwd zlwk
Hfrqrphwulf Dssolfdwlrqv1 Wkh PLW Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh/ PD1
^5:` Plojurp/ S1 dqg V1 Rvwhu/ 4<;:/ Mre Glvfulplqdwlrq/ Pdunhw Irufhv dqg wkh
Lqylvlelolw| K|srwkhvlv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 435= 78607:91
^5;` Prqwjrphu|/ P1/ 5335/ D Qhvwhg Orjlw Prgho ri wkh Fkrlfh ri d Judgxdwh
Exvlqhvv Vfkrro/ Hfrqrplfv ri Hgxfdwlrq Uhylhz 54= 7:40;31
^5<` Shujdplw/ P1 U1 dqg M1 U1 Yhxp/ 4<<</ Zkdw lv d SurprwlrqB/ Lqgxvwuldo
dqg Oderu Uhodwlrqv Uhylhz 85= 8;409341
^63` Srlulhu/ G1 M1/ 4<<9/ D Ed|hvldq Dqdo|vlv ri Qhvwhg Orjlw Prghov/ Mrxuqdo ri
Hfrqrphwulfv :8= 4960;41
^64` Vhow}hu/ D1 dqg G1 Phuuhww/ 5333/ Shuvrqqho Srolflhv dw wkh Xqlrq Edqn ri
Dxvwudold= Hylghqfh iurp wkh 4;;;04<33 Hqwu| Frkruwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderu
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WZRSHULRGV
WORKING PAPERS
2000
1/00
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION: COMPETING AND DEFECTIVE RISKS
— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal
2/00
THE ESTIMATION OF RISK PREMIUM IMPLICIT IN OIL PRICES
— Jorge Barros Luís
3/00
EVALUATING CORE INFLATION INDICATORS
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Luís Morais Sarmento
4/00
LABOR MARKETS AND KALEIDOSCOPIC COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
— Daniel A. Traça
5/00
WHY SHOULD CENTRAL BANKS AVOID THE USE OF THE UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATOR?
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Afonso Gonçalves da Silva
6/00
USING THE ASYMMETRIC TRIMMED MEAN AS A CORE INFLATION INDICATOR
— Carlos Robalo Marques, João Machado Mota
2001
1/01
THE SURVIVAL OF NEW DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN OWNED FIRMS
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
2/01
GAPS AND TRIANGLES
— Bernardino Adão, Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
3/01
A NEW REPRESENTATION FOR THE FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK PREMIUM
— Bernardino Adão, Fátima Silva
4/01
ENTRY MISTAKES WITH STRATEGIC PRICING
— Bernardino Adão
5/01
FINANCING IN THE EUROSYSTEM: FIXED VERSUS VARIABLE RATE TENDERS
— Margarida Catalão-Lopes
6/01
AGGREGATION, PERSISTENCE AND VOLATILITY IN A MACROMODEL
— Karim Abadir, Gabriel Talmain
7/01
SOME FACTS ABOUT THE CYCLICAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EURO ZONE
— Frederico Belo
8/01
TENURE, BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE WAGE-SETTING PROCESS
— Leandro Arozamena, Mário Centeno
9/01
USING THE FIRST PRINCIPAL COMPONENT AS A CORE INFLATION INDICATOR
José Ferreira Machado, Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Afonso Gonçalves da Silva
10/01
IDENTIFICATION WITH AVERAGED DATA AND IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDONIC REGRESSION STUDIES
— José A.F. Machado, João M.C. Santos Silva
2002
1/02
QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TRANSITION DATA
— José A.F. Machado, Pedro Portugal
2/02
SHOULD WE DISTINGUISH BETWEEN STATIC AND DYNAMIC LONG RUN EQUILIBRIUM IN ERROR
CORRECTION MODELS?
— Susana Botas, Carlos Robalo Marques
Banco de Portugal / Working Papers
i
3/02
MODELLING TAYLOR RULE UNCERTAINTY
— Fernando Martins, José A. F. Machado, Paulo Soares Esteves
4/02
PATTERNS OF ENTRY, POST-ENTRY GROWTH AND SURVIVAL: A COMPARISON BETWEEN DOMESTIC
AND FOREIGN OWNED FIRMS
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
5/02
BUSINESS CYCLES: CYCLICAL COMOVEMENT WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE PERIOD
1960-1999. A FREQUENCY DOMAIN APPROACH
— João Valle e Azevedo
6/02
AN “ART”, NOT A “SCIENCE”? CENTRAL BANK MANAGEMENT IN PORTUGAL UNDER THE GOLD
STANDARD, 1854-1891
— Jaime Reis
7/02
MERGE OR CONCENTRATE? SOME INSIGHTS FOR ANTITRUST POLICY
— Margarida Catalão-Lopes
8/02
DISENTANGLING THE MINIMUM WAGE PUZZLE: ANALYSIS OF WORKER ACCESSIONS AND
SEPARATIONS FROM A LONGITUDINAL MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA SET
— Pedro Portugal, Ana Rute Cardoso
9/02
THE MATCH QUALITY GAINS FROM UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
— Mário Centeno
10/02
HEDONIC PRICES INDEXES FOR NEW PASSENGER CARS IN PORTUGAL (1997-2001)
— Hugo J. Reis, J.M.C. Santos Silva
11/02
THE ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL RETURN ANOMALIES IN THE PORTUGUESE STOCK MARKET
— Miguel Balbina, Nuno C. Martins
12/02
DOES MONEY GRANGER CAUSE INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA?
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Joaquim Pina
13/02
INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: HOW STRONG IS THE RELATION?
— Tiago V.de V. Cavalcanti, Álvaro A. Novo
2003
1/03
FOUNDING CONDITIONS AND THE SURVIVAL OF NEW FIRMS
— P.A. Geroski, José Mata, Pedro Portugal
2/03
THE TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF FDI:
An Application to the United States Multinational Enterprises
— José Brandão de Brito, Felipa de Mello Sampayo
3/03
OPTIMAL FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY: EQUIVALENCE RESULTS
— Isabel Correia, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles
4/03
FORECASTING EURO AREA AGGREGATES WITH BAYESIAN VAR AND VECM MODELS
— Ricardo Mourinho Félix, Luís C. Nunes
5/03
CONTAGIOUS CURRENCY CRISES: A SPATIAL PROBIT APPROACH
— Álvaro Novo
6/03
THE DISTRIBUTION OF LIQUIDITY IN A MONETARY UNION WITH DIFFERENT PORTFOLIO RIGIDITIES
— Nuno Alves
7/03
COINCIDENT AND LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA: A FREQUENCY BAND APPROACH
— António Rua, Luís C. Nunes
8/03
WHY DO FIRMS USE FIXED-TERM CONTRACTS?
— José Varejão, Pedro Portugal
9/03
NONLINEARITIES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE: AN APPLICATION OF THE SMOOTH TRANSITION
AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL TO CHARACTERIZE GDP DYNAMICS FOR THE EURO-AREA AND PORTUGAL
— Francisco Craveiro Dias
Banco de Portugal / Working Papers
ii
10/03
WAGES AND THE RISK OF DISPLACEMENT
— Anabela Carneiro, Pedro Portugal
11/03
SIX WAYS TO LEAVE UNEMPLOYMENT
— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison
12/03
EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS AND THE STRUCTURE OF LABOR ADJUSTMENT COSTS
— José Varejão, Pedro Portugal
13/03
THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM: IS IT RELEVANT FOR POLICY?
— Bernardino Adão, Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
14/03
THE IMPACT OF INTEREST-RATE SUBSIDIES ON LONG-TERM HOUSEHOLD DEBT:
EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE PROGRAM
— Nuno C. Martins, Ernesto Villanueva
15/03
THE CAREERS OF TOP MANAGERS AND FIRM OPENNESS: INTERNAL VERSUS EXTERNAL LABOUR
MARKETS
— Francisco Lima, Mário Centeno
Banco de Portugal / Working Papers
iii