Wine consumption in Spain Rafael del Rey General Manager XVIII Giornata Internazionale Vitivinicola - Siena, 28 maggio 2005 How much is consumed? How has consumption evolved? What type of wines are consumed and where? At what prices? By whom? 2 Unfortunately, nobody really knows how much wine is actually consumed in Spain… Source Ministry of Agriculture (viticultural balance: rest of…) Ministry of Agriculture (Inquiry on food & Beverage consumption) Institute of Statistics* * Total sales minus exports Nielsen Latest year Figure MM Hltrs Jul 2004 13,90 Dec 2004 11,98 Dec 2003 16,85 Dec 2004 6,58 ... Although it should be around 12/13 million hectoliters 3 Therefore, differences arise on how has consumption evolved… 1988 to 2004 18,5 17,2 18,1 16,6 16,8 16,3 15,9 16,0 15,3 16,2 14,5 14,5 14,6 -24,8%; -4,6 Mill. 14,8 14,3 15,2 14,2 14,7 13,5 13,9 13,2 14,2 13,5 12,3 1988 1989 1990 12,0 11,6 M of Ag (balance) M of Ag (inquiry) Inst. Stat. AC Nielsen 1987 13,9 13,1 12,0 6,7 13,8 13,7 13,0 12,9 13,8 12,0 -25,9%; -4,2 Mill. 6,7 1991 6,5 6,7 1992 1993 6,7 1994 6,5 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6,2 2000 6,5 2001 6,8 6,7 6,6 2002 2003 2004 4 … although most indicators show clear decrease. Something similar (different sources) happens in terms of value… 2.461 2.414 2.461 2.795 2.422 2000 to 2004: +334 Mill. € (+3,2% p.a.) M of Ag (inquiry) Inst. Stat. AC Nielsen (still wine) 2.060 1.875 1.894 2.050 1.812 1995 to 2003: +956 Mill. € (+8,2% p.a.) 1.472 1.305 1.094 1.129 1.190 1.108 1.354 1.164 1996 to 2004: +518 Mill. € (+6,1% p.a.) 983 858 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1.376 2002 2003 2004 … although most reliable figures show increase.5 In terms of per capita wine consumption: 46,6 Total wine (Ltrs/capita) 41,4 38,8 The same decrease in wine (-39% since 1987) takes place... 37,3 34,3 33,3 35,1 34,1 35,6 34,3 33,0 32,6 32,7 30,6 30,5 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total beberages 1987 2004 (Lit per capita) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1987-04 Ltr/pers on/year 1999 2000 2001 1987-04 1987 2004 Ltr/pers on/year % 93,8 -23,7 -20,2% 151,1 63,8 73,1% 244,9 40,1 19,6% % AO Table Sprakling Other Total wine Beer Other alcoholic Fruit juice Mineral water Soft drinks 6,3 36,4 1,9 2,0 46,6 64,4 6,5 6,7 23,0 57,6 8,2 18,2 1,1 0,9 28,4 59,1 6,3 18,4 66,6 66,0 1,9 -18,2 -0,8 -1,1 -18,2 -5,3 -0,2 11,7 43,6 8,4 30,3% -50,0% -43,2% -56,0% -39,1% -8,2% 117,5 -3,1% 175,2% 189,7% 87,3 14,6% Total beverages 204,8 244,9 40,1 19,6% 204,8 29,6 2002 28,2 28,4 2003 2004 … which is not caused by the increase of other alcoholic beverages, but is due to growth of nonalcoholic. 6 Horeca; 714,44; 60% By type of wine: Home; 483,35; 40% Sparkling; 45,7; 4% Table; 768,2; 64% By place of consumption: Other; 37,1; 3% AO; 346,7; 29% 7 By type of wine and place of consumption: Products & channel 2004 (million ltr) Horeca Sparkling 2% % Home AO 103,8 Home table 327,8 483,4 40,4% 30 Home sparkling 25,9 Home other 25,8 70 Horeca AO 242,9 Horeca table 440,4 714,4 59,6% Horeca sparkling 19,8 Horeca other 11,3 Total wine domestic 1.197,8 1.197,8 100,0% EVOLUTION Var. 1987-04 BY PRODUCT By product AND CHANNEL Home AO Home table Home sparkling Home other Horeca AO Horeca table Horeca sparkling Horeca other Total wine domestic Mill Ltrs 35,78 -565,02 -22,83 -12,46 65,89 -81,36 -6,99 -28,77 -615,75 Var. 1987-04 By channel % Mill Ltrs 52,6% -63,3% -564,52 -46,8% -32,6% 37,2% -15,6% -51,23 -26,1% -71,7% -34,0% -615,75 % -53,9% Horeca other 1% Home AO 9% Horeca table 37% Home table 27% Horeca AO 20% Home Sparkling 2% Home other 2% Home AO Home table Var. 1987 - 2004 in million Ltrs 36 -565 -23 Home sparkling -12 Home other 66 Horeca AO -81 Horeca table -6,7% -7 Horeca sparkling -29 Horeca other -51,4% Total wine domestic -616 8 By average price (according to Nielsen) : 62% of total wine is sold below 1,50 € /bot-Ltr, which only represent 32% of total value of domestic wine consumption Price per unit offtrade (year 2004) 8,13€/bot 3,3 4,82€/bot 8,8 3,33€/bot 7,6 10,6 20,6 2,46€/bot 19,0 13,1 1,49€/bot 31,0 0,73€/litro 30,3 23,9 26,2 5,7 IN VOLUMEN IN VALUE 9 By region of consumption 1.999 Cantabria País Vasco Cataluña Asturias Galicia Baleares Navarra Total España Madrid Castilla-LM Castilla y León Valencia Aragón Andalucía La Rioja Murcia Canarias Extremadura Wine at home 26,81 22,34 21,08 19,30 19,21 15,57 15,57 15,20 14,99 14,50 13,70 13,60 12,36 11,78 11,75 11,52 8,62 6,91 2.004 Cantabria Cataluña Baleares Asturias Galicia País Vasco Total España Navarra La Rioja Castilla y León Madrid Valencia Andalucía Castilla-LM Aragón Extremadura Murcia Canarias Wine at home 21,19 16,99 13,61 13,29 11,89 11,63 11,51 11,15 10,86 10,80 10,41 10,40 10,38 9,93 9,22 8,90 7,85 7,63 (home consumption): Var. 2001 - 04 in Ltrs/person/year Cantabria -5,62 -21% Cataluña -4,09 -19% -1,96 Baleares -6,01 Asturias -38% -10,71 -48% -3,69 Total España Navarra -31% -7,32 Galicia País Vasco -13% -24% -4,42 -28% La Rioja -0,89 -8% Castilla y León -2,90 -21% Madrid -4,58 -31% -3,20 Valencia -1,40 Andalucía Castilla-LM Aragón -4,57 Note: Large increase in population in recent years Canarias -12% -32% -3,14 -25% 1,99 Extremadura Murcia -24% -3,67 29% -32% -0,99 -11% Spain is divided into northern consumers with 10 Lit/head and over, and central, southern and eastern consumers below the average, with: •The Balearic Islands in the leading group; and • Aragon in the North though well below the average 10 Wine consumption at home by region: Above 15 Lit/person/year Between 11 an 15 Lit/person/year Between 10 and 11 lit/person/year Below 10 Lit/person/year Is it more difficult to drink wine in warmer areas? 11 More detail on consumers at home (1): By color (home still wine): two thirds are red wine, 23% white and 13% rosé Lit/person/year 2003 Change 1992-2003 Rosé; 55.341,15; 13% White; 100.686,57; 23% 14,36 Red; 275.635,28; 64% 12,86 11,63 -1,84 11,69 11,55 -2,82 -3,02 -3,91 -5,12 Less than 2.000 2.000 to 10.000 10.000 to 100.000 100.000 to 500.000 More than 500.000 Lit/person/year Change 1997-2003 12,16 -3,89 Low 11,64 -6,43 Medium-low -3,14 Medium consumption): more wine is consumed in small towns than in larger cities By socio-economic status 12,83 11,55 By size of the city (home -3,97 High and medium-high (home consumption): slightly more wine is consumed in houses with a medium and high status and larger decrease takes place in medium-low and low income families. 12 More detail on consumers at home (2): Lit/person/year 2003 Change 1997-2003 19,74 15,04 !!!! 6,14 -4,83 (home consumption): wine consumption is clearly associated to elder age 9,65 -4,84 By age of the house lady -3,64 -4,95 Below 35 years old Between 35 and 49 Between 50 and 64 years old years old 65 years old and more Lit/person/year 2003 Change 1997-2003 13,51 Does wine in our countries have a problem of acceptance among young people? By activity of the house lady (home consumption): much more wine is consumed in traditional houses, where, however, decrease has being much larger. 9,64 -1,89 -4,88 Working outside home Work at home 13 More detail on consumers at home (3): Lit/person/year 2003 Change 1997-2003 20,09 By size of the family 19,2 12,08 2,03 9,72 -4,22 1 2 -6,41 8,05 -4,87 -4,45 3 4 (home consumption): the larger the family, the lesser wine is consumed, and only in houses with one person (old / young??) consumption has grown 5 and + More children probably means younger Lit/person/year 2003 Change 1997-2003 By age of the children 16,21 9,26 -4,5 6,29 -3,79 (home consumption): more wine is consumed in houses with no children and those with elder children, as compared to houses with young sons and daughters -3,75 No children Children > 6 yr Children between 6 and 15 14 Conclusions: • • • Clear decrease of wine consumption in Spain (as in the other traditional wine producing countries) Mainly in table (popular) wine consumed at home, while AO wine is growing, particularly on-trade (also AO regions grow) Probably due to changes in patterns of consumption – – – – • • • Less basic products in exchanged for few higher quality Less traditional lunch (big, quite, followed by a “siesta”), though good dinners outside More quick meals Problems with traffic (How much can be consumed?) Affected (distribution, presentation, advertisement) by the consideration of wine as a dangerous alcoholic drink (legally associated with drugs) need to separate wine from other drinks Wine Act 24/2004 Not very attractive for younger generations (“a parent’s drink”); consumption directly link to age urgent need to make it an attractive beverage (presentation, degree of alcohol, innovation, etc), also as way to learn/enter moderation Not due to prices, although too expensive in restaurants innovation in distribution (direct sales? Enoturism?) growth of firms (balance of powers between wineries versus distributors) 15 Conclusions (2): • We are loosing a generation of consumers while wine is less attractive to young people (as opposed to young generations in Anglo-Saxon markets) need to innovate, marketing, presentations • The great importance of on-trade consumption – makes it comfortable for small bodegas to exist and limits possible entrance of foreign competitors, but, – on the other hand, limits growth of domestic firms, increases power of distributors (and regional administrations and unions) on the medium term and makes needed export less attractive. • Off-trade distribution is concentrating everywhere and may contribute to increase consumption at home (following trends in northern countries). • The need to supply larger amounts of quality wine in stable terms at competitive prices, both domestically and abroad, generates doubts on the EU policy regarding quality wine associated to specific producing regions increasing need of flexible laws on presentation and AO 16 At the end,… … two questions arise: • Is it reasonable to expect a large increase in domestic demand to absorb our larger production? If not, export will be required, but then: • Can we face export markets with the same criteria and mentality than we do our domestic markets? 17 Thank you Rafael del Rey XVIII Giornata Internazionale Vitivinicola - Siena, 28 maggio 2005
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