Solving the
Global EconomicPolitics
of Peak Oil with Renewables
Presented by
Stephen L. Rush
CEO of For Fuel Freedom (3F Inc.),
Contrary Economist & Business Strategist
World Green Energy Symposium
October 22, 2010
TM
TM
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Overview
Political-economics of future Oil Supply
Resulting Economics of Peak Oil
Decision Time for Governments
Fossil Fuel Transition Plan
Implementing Transition to Renewables
How we arrived here
Economic Choices
Technology Choices Available
Solving the Bio-fuel Supply Equation
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc.
10-10-10
Page 1
The Politics of Petroleum
Peak Oil
Requires more Money and Energy to extract
Kuwaiti Economists
Global Oil Will Peak:
Hubbert Model
Tetonic
(abiotic)
2014
Oil is Already Becoming Scarce
Unnecessary & unstable Deep Ocean Drilling
Oil Scarcity Can Be Prevented By Transition
To Renewables
 Panic can lead to War
 Renewables can lead to Trade & Peace
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Page 2
Peak Oil Predictions
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10-10-10
Page 3
Economics of Scarcity
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10-10-10
Page 4
The Time Is Now
To avert a Crisis
This is the Last Chance to
Transition from Oil
To determine Economic Options
Plan to implement Best Technologies
within 3 months
Act Now to Avoid Economic Disparity
Develop a Fossil-fuel Transition Plan
A Well thought-out Plan will Stabilize Markets
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said,
“All of us must get used to a different lifestyle.”
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Page 5
Fossil Fuel Transition Plan
Determine your Level of Market
Participation
Expect Oil Shortfall to be 7.3%
Estimated Production Loss is 3.4%
3.9% is Compounded Economics
(How scarcity affects the breakdown of oil supply)
Evaluate Fuel and Energy Supply
Select Economically Sustainable Technology
Assess Local Renewable Resources
Compare resources to your Energy Needs
3 months from now is latest to Start Development
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Page 6
Scarcity vs. Abundance
Lessons of the Xinho Indians of So. America
Food on the table vs. Survival
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Page 7
Sources of Energy
Making Smart Energy Choices
Unsustainable Energy Sources
Sources:
Oil
Dams Geo-thermal
Nuclear
Petrol-chemical
Coal, Nat’l Gas
Wireless Grid
Lethal Drawbacks:
Desertification Seismic Disturbance Poor Health
Ocean Acidificaton Famine Conditions Disease
Sustainable Options can prevent calamity
Renewables are here to save the day
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10-10-10
Page 9
Energy Demand Comparison
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Page 10
Economic Considerations
Transitional Energy Solutions
Power Plant Oxy-fuel Process
CO2 Capture For Algae Bio-products
Coal Power Plant Toxins Filter for Eco-products
Such as Vehicle Battery lead, mercury for Cool Light
Other
DC Current Efficiencies
Harnessing the Tide
Green Buidling System
Renewable Energy Solutions
Bio-compost Bio-gas Bldg-integrated Energy
Non-fossil fuel Wind Solar Cellulosic Fuels
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Page 11
Renewable Fuel Directions
Sustainable Bio-fuels Options
Bio-fuels and By-products from Algae
Biodiesel Jet Grade Bio-fuel Bio-plastics
Bio-oil Food Suppliments Bio-pharma
Bio-fuels and By-products from Wastes
Ethanol Bio-gas Bio-Fertilizer Glass Aggregate
Hydrogen Bio-fuel Water
Fuel Pellets
Solving Bio-fuel Supplies Economic Equation
Market for Renewable Products
Consumer Convenience and Ethanol
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Page 12
A Brief History of Ethanol
Development of Ethanol
Roots in Persia, Appalacian Mtns, Brazil
Liked for its Resemblence to Gasoline
Easy Vehicle Maintenance and Use
Persian Discoveries & Future Economies
Proven tech thru the ages updated for today’s usage
Distilled Alcohol -> Ethanol
Optics and Electricity -> Solar
Wind Inventions -> Non-fossil fuel Wind
Astronomical Sci -> Int’l Space Participation
Cell Transplantation -> Umbilical Stem Cells
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Page 13
Political - Economics of Ethanol
Economic Threshold of Grain Ethanol
Bio-fuels from Food
Ecocologically unfriendly Eco-crops
Apocalyptic Deforestation
Western Climate and use of Corn
Commoditiy Pricing
Economics of fertilizer vs. Bio-fertilizers
Supply Dilemma of Ethanol
Ethanol from Cellulose
Sugar Limitations
Production Threshold
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Economic & Ecological Ethanol
Next Generation Cellulosic Systems
The use of Microbes
Increase in feedstock or product
Reuse and Recycling of Pulp
By-products and markets
Economics To Look For
Economic Thresholds
Breakeven Profit Analysis
Raw Material to Product Output Ratio
Raw Material Supplies
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Page 15
Differences in Ethanol Production
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Page 16
How 3F Inc. Accellerates the Supply
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What Fits Your Transition Plan
Utilizing Integrated By-products with Ethanol
Does The System Provide Renewable Energy?
Bio-compost Bio-gas Bio-oil Bio-plastics
Bldg-integrated Energy CO2 Sales Bio-Fertilizer
Food Suppliments Glass Aggregate Wind Power
Hydrogen Bio-fuel Jet Grade Bio-fuel Oxy-fuel
Bio-pharma Solar Non-coal Fuel Pellets Water
The Need for Bio-fuels and Renewables
Cost to install Renewables in Iran?
vs.
Costs of Nuclear facilities, or War?
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10-10-10
Page 18
Solving Supply Economics
Bio-fuels needed to meet Oil Shortfall
U.S. average fuel demand is 3,898,886,420 brls.
112,348,162,808 gallons gasoline
 51,405,066,828 gallons diesel
E85 is 72% and Bio-diesel is 86%
of the energy in petroleum
Replace the 7.3% shortfall
7.3% of the current U.S. fuel demand is equal to
23.5b gallons of ethanol, bio-diesel, jet fuel, bio-oil
& bio-plastics
Equal to 103 of 3F Inc’s facilities in the first year
At a cost of $40.53b US; decreasing scale after
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Page 19
Refining Cost vs Bio-fuel Capital Cost
Operating Costs to run U.S. Refineries
Total operating expenses for U.S. oil refineries:
$1.465 trillion U.S. dollars
Could use it to buy 4,000+ Plants
Next generation bio-fuel systems
Produce renewable energy in concert
Global Operating Costs
Global operating expenses for oil refineries:
$10.7 trillion dollars (estimated)
Could buy 20,000 Plants
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Page 20
Next Steps In The Plan
Sustainable Renewable Choices
This is the opportunity to explore your options
Assess your best economic & technological fit
Rate Economic Performance of these systems
Find your next-generation of Sustainable Fuels
Utilize Renewables Efficiently and Effectively
It is easy to Retrofit existing infrastructure
There is a huge market for it
Supplies can coincide with Economic Change
If Expansion Phases are timed to bring Renewable
Systems to market quickly and methodically 10-10-10
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Page 21
Now is the Time
to Plan Your Oil Transition
A healthy environment makes for a healthy people
and a healthy economy.
A Presentation of
For Fuel Freedom (3F Inc.)
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc.