PROMOD Model
Economic Planning User Group
November 11th, 2016
MTEP17 PROMOD Model Building Timeline
1Q & 2Q of 2016: MTEP17 PROMOD model building
Oct 2016:
PROMOD models posted –
2nd stakeholder review
Aug/Sep 2016: PROMOD models posted – initial stakeholder review
Nov 2016:
Final MTEP17 PROMOD models
• Final MTEP17 Models incorporating stakeholder
feedback to be posted Mid-November
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
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Key Assumptions for future scenarios
Fuel Price
Forecasts
Policy
Impacts
Demand &
Energy
Forecasts
Generator
Portfolio
Emissions
Information
Transmission
Topology
Economic
Planning
Models
Monitored
Flowgates
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
3
Economic Model Overview
• MTEP17 PROMOD model development starts with
Ventyx’s annual data release
• Near term and longer term detailed 5, 10 and 15 year out
PROMOD models are developed on an annual basis
(2021, 2026, 2031)
– 15 year out model will be used for Phase II of RTOS
• Study footprint includes majority of the Eastern
Interconnection
• Transmission topology sourced from MTEP16 power
flow models with MTEP16 Target A projects added in
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
4
MTEP17 Economic Model Key Assumptions
Existing Fleet
Policy Regulations
Accelerated
Alternative
Technologies
Low
(High for LRZ 9 industrial)
Demand: 0.4%
Energy: 0.4%
Mid
Demand: 0.6%
Energy: 0.7%
High
(Low for LRZ 9 industrial)
Demand: 0.9%
Energy: 0.9%
Low
Mid
High
Coal: 8 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Total by 2031: 24 GW
Coal: 16 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Total by 2031: 32 GW
Coal: 24 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Total by 2031: 40 GW
DR: 3 GW
EE: 0.2 GW
DR: 4 GW
EE: 3.1 GW
DR: 6.9 GW
EE: 8.9 GW
Renewable Capacity
Additions (Wind, Solar)
4.8 GW
21.6 GW
51.6 GW
Thermal Capacity Additions
(CC, CT)
21.6 GW
28.8 GW
26.4 GW
N/A
2026, 2031: $5/ton
2026: $5/ton
2031: $30/ton
Future
Gross Demand & Energy
Growth Rates
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Retirements
DR/EE Capacity Additions
Carbon Cost ($2016)
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
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Transmission Constraints
• Monitored flowgates in PROMOD constitute an
“event file”
– These are transmission constraints that need to be limited in the
security constrained unit commitment and security constrained
economic dispatch algorithms
•
The sources for the event file include:
–
–
–
–
MISO/NERC Book of Flowgates
MISO and SEAMS historical top congested flowgates
MISO stakeholders’ updates
Contingency Analysis to identify additional constraints
• Ratings specified in the MTEP16 powerflow cases
are used for monitored lines
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
6
Model Verification Process
DEMAND &
ENERGY
• Annual
forecasts
• Hourly
load
shapes
GENERATION
• Capacity
• Must-run
status
• Heat rates
• Fixed and
Variable
O&M
• Start up cost
• Maint.
• Reserve
Cont.
• Hourly
profiles
FUEL &
Emission
• Fuel prices
and
forecasts
• Emission
rates and
costs
• Consistent
with future
definitions
NETWORK
TOPOLOGY
• Scaling
groups
• Line ratings
• Generation
and load bus
mapping
• Flowgates and
contingencies
SYSTEM &
DISPATCH
• Market
Structure
• Operating
Reserves
• Hurdle Rates
• Reference
bus selection
• Dispatchable
resources
SWITCHES
• LMP
Reporting
• Generator
Transaction
Reporting
• Area
Reporting
• Diagnostics
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
7
PROMOD Model Access
• The preliminary MTEP17 PROMOD models have been
posted for review on the PROMOD FTP site at the
following location:
SFTP Location:
Host: misoftp.midwestiso.org
Port: 22
Folder: promod/MTEP17/MTEP17 PROMOD models
Note: Please request ABB for PROMOD version 11.1.9
using the build specification posted on the FTP site
Economic Planning Users Group – MISO Regional Transmission Overlay Study Kick off November 11, 2016
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