www.culturalcognition.net
Motivated System 2 Reasoning and Science Curiosity:
Two Individual Differences in Politically Motivated
Reasoning
Dan M. Kahan
Yale University
& many x 103 others
Research Supported by:
National Science Foundation, SES-0922714
Annenberg Center for Public Policy
Behavioural Public Policy, in press
Advances in Pol. Psych. , 38 179-199
“Skin cream experiment”
“Skin cream experiment”

Two conditions
7
8
Correct interpretation of data
6
rash decreases
rash increases
3
4
5
n_numeracy
skin cream
correct
1
scatterplot: skin treatment
2
0
1
2
3
skin cream
4
5
6
7
8
numeracy
9
Numeracy score
1
1
0
incorrect
0
0
Lowess regression line.
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
n_numeracy
6
7
8
9
1
Covariance & Numeracy
1
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0
1st
Bars denote 0.95 CIs.
10th
50th
Numeracy (percentile)
90th
95th 99th
“Gun ban experiment”
“Gun ban experiment”
Four conditions
9
9
8
8
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash
increases
rash
increases
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
1
0
incorrect
incorrect
0
2
2
3
3
4
5
n_numeracy
4
5
n_numeracy
skin cream
skin cream
skin
treatment
3
2
3
skin
skin
4 4 5
6 cream
7 7 8 8
5
6 cream
numeracy
numeracy
9
9
0
0
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
0
0
11
0
0
1
1
Gun ban
Lowess regression line.
n_correct
n_correctinterpretation
interpretationof ofdata
data(=1)
(=1)
correct interpretation of data (=1)
6
6
1
correct
correct
1
7
7
scatterplot:
skin
treatment
scatterplot:
skin
treatment
00
correct interpretation of data (=1)
Correct
interpretation
data of data
Correct
interpretation
ofof
data
Correct
interpretation
2
2
3
3
4
5
4
5
n_numeracy
n_numeracy
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
9
8
Correct
interpretation
data of data
Correct
interpretation
ofof
data
Correct
interpretation
3
4
5
n_numeracy
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash
increases
rash
increases
9
skin
treatment
skin cream
Correct interpretation of data
0
1
1
2
skin
cream
skin
cream
1
0
2
3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8
scatterplot:
skin treatment
numeracy
numeracy
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
scatterplot:
gun
ban
scatterplot: skin
treatment
8
9
9
0
1
2
1
2
3
3
4
5
4
5
n_numeracy
n_numeracy
6
rash decreases
rash
increases
crime
decreases
7
6
7
0
0 1
0
1 2
1
2
skin
6
7
3 4
4 5
5
6 cream
78
89
numeracy
numeracy
3
4
5
6
7
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
Numeracy
score
numeracy
0
Lowess regression line.
2 3
1
0
2
1
00
incorrect
8
crime increases
3
0
4
5
n_numeracy
0
0
skin cream
0
0
1
n_correct interpretation of data (=1)
correct interpretation of data (=1)
1
Gun ban
0
correct interpretation of data (=1)
6
1
correct
1 1
7
1
1
8
0
incorrect
incorrect
0
2
correct interpretation of data (=1)
correct interpretation of data (=1)
6
1
correct
correct
1
7
scatterplot:
skin
treatment
scatterplot:
skin
treatment
9
8
9
8
9
9
Lowess regression line.
Regression model for experiment results
rash_decrease
rash increase
crime increase
z_numeracy
z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease
z_numeracy_x_rash_increase
z_numeracy_x_crime_increase
z_numeracy2
z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease
z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase
z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase
Conserv_Repub
Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease
Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase
Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase
z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub
z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease
z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase
z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase
_constant
0.40
0.06
1.07
-0.01
0.55
0.23
0.46
0.31
0.02
-0.07
-0.31
-0.64
0.56
1.28
0.63
-0.33
0.33
0.54
0.26
-0.96
(1.57)
(0.22)
(4.02)
(-0.05)
(2.29)
(1.05)
(2.01)
(2.46)
(0.14)
(-0.39)
(-1.75)
(-3.95)
(2.64)
(6.02)
(2.82)
(-1.89)
(1.40)
(2.17)
(1.08)
(-4.70)
N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor
estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—
rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with
assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for
ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
skin
treatment
rash increases
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
50%
010%
.1 30%
.240%
.3
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
80%
.470%
.5
.9
1
90%
100%
.6
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
0%
10%
20%
50%
60% 70%
30%
40%
80%
90%
100%
.7kernel
= epanechnikov,
bandwidth
0 .8
.1.9 = 0.0112
.21
.3
.4crime increases
.5
.6
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10%
90%
40% 50%
bandwidth
.6 100% .7 kernel
.8 .120%
.930%
0
.2= 0.01201 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
.6
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
25%, ± 10
skin
treatment
rash increases
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
0
.1
.2
.3
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% 90% 100%
.4crime increases
.5
.6
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10%
90%
40% 50%
bandwidth
.6 100% .7 kernel
.8 .120%
.930%
0
.2= 0.01201 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
.6
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
skin
treatment
rash increases
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
0
.1
.2
.3
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% 90% 100%
.4crime increases
.5
.6
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40% 50%
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2 1 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
skin
treatment
rash increases
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
0
.1
.2
.3
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
increases
.4 crime .5
.6
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40% 50%
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2 1 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
5%, ± 6
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decrease
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
0
.1
.2
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
.4
.5
.6
.3
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40% 50%
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2 1 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.470% 80%
.5
of correct
interpretation
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0133
.9
1
90%.6
100%
of data
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
0% = epanechnikov,
10%
30%
40%1 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
bandwidth
= 0.0120
.7kernel
.8 .120%
.9
0
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.470% 80%
.5
of correct
interpretation
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0133
.9
1
90%.6
100%
of data
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
0% = epanechnikov,
10%
30%
40%1 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
bandwidth
= 0.0120
.7kernel
.8 .120%
.9
0
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime decreases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
Gun ban
00
.1.1
.2 .2
.3 .3
.4 .4 .5
.5 .6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
bandwidth
= 0.0080
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0==epanechnikov,
.1
.2
.3
.6.7
.7.8
.9
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
1.9
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40% 50%
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2 1 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.6
.7
60% 70%
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
kernel
0.0132
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40% 50%
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2 1 .3
of data
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0% = epanechnikov,
10%
90%
40% 50%
bandwidth
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
.8 .120%
.930%
0
.2 1
.3
of data
.6
.7
60% 70%
crime decreases
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
.9
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crimedecreases
decreases
crime
crime
crime
decreases
decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.1
.2.2
.3 .3
.4 .4
.5 .5
.6
0% ==epanechnikov,
10%
90%
40% 50%
kernel
bandwidth
= 0.0119
bandwidth
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
.8 .120%
.930%
0 epanechnikov,
.2 1
.3
of data
.6
.7
60% 70%
.6 .7
.7 .8
.8 .9
60% 70% 80%
.91
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
1
90% 100%
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime increases
crime
crime decreases increases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
crime decreases
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%
90%
40% 50%
bandwidth
== 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
.930%
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.20.02281 .3
of data
.6
.7
60% 70%
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
rash increases
rash increases
rash decreases
rash
decreases
rash
decreases
rash decreases
rash decreases
rash increases
rash increases
skin
treatment
0
0%
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
.6
.7
.8
60%
70%
80%
.9
1
90%
100%
0
0%
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
10%
20%
50%
30%
40%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0112
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
.8
.9
1
80% increases
90% 100%
crime
crime increases
crime
crime decreases increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40%
0.0228
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
1 50%
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2
.3
of data
.6
.7
60% 70%
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for low numeracy
partisans
25% (± 9%)
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for high numeracy
partisans
46% (± 17%)
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
crime increases
crime
crime decreases increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40%
0.0228
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
1 50%
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2
.3
of data
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Bounded rationality thesis
BRT prediction
Reality
Liberal
Democrat
Conservative
Republican
BRT prediction
Reality
Liberal
Democrat
Conservative
Republican
BRT prediction
Reality
Liberal
Democrat
Conservative
Republican
BRT prediction
Reality
Conservative
Republican
Adapted from Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M.,
Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The
polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on
perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change
2, 732-735 (2012).
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
1
Liberal
Democrat
.75
.75
.75
.5
.5
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
.25
.25
0
00
1st
1st
-3
16th
-2 16th
50th 0
-1 50th
OSI percentile
AOT
86th
84th 1
99th
99th
2
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
N = 1600. shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
1
Liberal
Democrat
.75
.75
.5
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
.25
0
0
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
AOT
00
11
AOT Thinking (zscore)
Actively Open-minded
N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.
22
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
.75
Liberal
Democrat
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
AOT Test (no. correct)
Cognitive Reflection
N = 1600. Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.
2
1
.75
.5
.25
0
1st
16th
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
50th
84th
99th
1
.75
.5
.25
0
1st
16th
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
50th
84th
99th
1
.75
.5
.25
0
1st
16th
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
50th
84th
99th
1
.75
.5
.25
0
1st
16th
N = 1759. Shaded area denote 0.95 CIs.
50th
84th
99th
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for low numeracy
partisans
25% (± 9%)
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for high numeracy
partisans
46% (± 17%)
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
crime increases
crime
crime decreases increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40%
0.0228
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
1 50%
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2
.3
of data
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
Bounded rationality thesis
Advances in Pol. Psych. , 38 179-199
www.culturalcognition.net
State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity”
Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA)





I am curious about the world in which we live
I find it boring to hear about new ideas
I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend
I would like to be given a science book as a present
I get bored when watching science programs on TV
Sample self-report item
Sample self-report item
Sample (self-report) behavior
Sample (self-report) behavior
Performance measure
“Science Curiosity Scale” (SCS_1.0 )
(item response theory 2PL)
.9
how closely follow news on
“scientific research or discoveries”
NISCIENCE
BSCIENCE
book
on science
“scientific
research
or discoveries”
Read
book
in last
yr
in last yr
1
very
closely
Not at all
A little
but not closely
.8
closely
.75
.7
.6
Prob.
probability of pro-curiosity response
1 read
.5
.4
.5
.3
.25
.2
.1
0
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
science curiosity
Science Curiosity Index (SCI)
2
3
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
SCI
.5
1
Science Curiosity Index (SCI)
1.5
2
2.5
3
YIF Clip: Origins of color vision
Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”
100%
probability of requesting full show
probability
1
75%
.75
Evolution believer
Evolution believer
50%
.5
Evolution disbeliever
.25
25%
Evolution disbeliever
00%
1st-2
-1
16th
050th
1 84th
Science
Interest
(percentile)
science
interest
Science
Curiosity
(percentie)
Science
Curiosity
Logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence
2
99th
Was the information “believable”?
Study 2 goals & results:
Replication & robustness of SCS
Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink
Darwin’s Dangerous Idea
Study 2 goals & results:
Replication & robustness of SCS
Study 2 goals & results:
Replication & robustness of SCS
Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink
Darwin’s Dangerous Idea
Daily Hollywood Rundown
Study 2 goals & results:
Replication & robustness of SCS
Study 2 goals & results:
Replication & robustness of SCS
WTF? #2: political polarization . . . .
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1st
16th
50th
84th
1st 99th
Science Curiosity Scale percentile
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1st
16th
50th
84th
Science Curiosity Scale percentile
16th
50th
84th
99th
Science Curiosity Scale percentile
1st
99th
16th
50th
84th
Science Curiosity Scale percentile
99th
Q. Are “curious” partisans more likely to examine
surprising contrary evidence?
1. Unsurprising Nonskeptic vs. Surprising Skeptical
2. Surprising skeptic vs. Unsurprising skeptical
Nonskeptical
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs.
unsurprising nonskeptical story
24% (10%, 45%)
Liberal Dem.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
.25
.5
.75
1
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values
represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs.
unsurprising nonskeptical story
24% (10%, 45%)
Liberal Dem.
+1 SD
science curiosity
Liberal Dem.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
68% (46%, 85%)
.25
.5
.75
1
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression. Parenthetical values
represent boundaries of 0.95 CI.
Probability of selecting surprising skeptical vs.
unsurprising nonskeptical story
45% (± 31%)
Liberal Dem.
+1 SD
science curiosity
Liberal Dem.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
.25
.5
.75
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
1
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs.
surprising nonskeptical story
42% (± 31%)
Conserv. Repub.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
.25
.5
.75
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
1
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs.
surprising nonskeptical story
42% (± 31%)
Conserv. Repub.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
.25
62% (± 13%)
Conserv. Repub.
+1 SD
science curiosity
.5
.75
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
1
Probability of selecting surprising nonskeptical vs.
surprising nonskeptical story
20% (± 19%)
Conserv. Repub.
-1 SD
science curiosity
0
.25
Conserv. Repub.
+1 SD
science curiosity
.5
.75
N =733. Monte Carlo simulation based on logistic regression..
1
Monte carlo simulations
Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)
Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)
high numeracy = 7 correct
low numeracy = 3 correct
Low numeracy
High numeracy
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for low numeracy
partisans
25% (± 9%)
Avg. “polarization”
on crime data
for high numeracy
partisans
46% (± 17%)
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
crime increases
crime increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime increases
Gun ban
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
0%
20%
30%
40% 50%
kernel
epanechnikov,
bandwidth
= 0.0080
0 = 10%
.1
.2
.3
0.0132
.6
.7
.8
60%
.4 70% 80%
.5
of correct
kernelprobabilility
= epanechnikov,
bandwidthinterpretation
= 0.0133
.9
crime increases
crime
crime decreases increases
crime decreases
crime decreases
crime
increases
1
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.9
1
.4
.5
probabilility of correct interpretation of data
.6
0% = epanechnikov,
10% 20%.930%
90%
40%
0.0228
= 0.0120
.6 100% .7 kernel
1 50%
0 .8 .1 bandwidth
.2
.3
of data
.6
.7
.8
60% 70% 80%
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0133
90% 100%
.7
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
1
Liberal
Democrat
.75
.75
.75
.5
.5
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
.25
.25
0
00
1st
1st
-3
16th
-2 16th
50th 0
-1 50th
OSI percentile
AOT
86th
84th 1
99th
99th
2
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
N = 1600. shaded areas denote 0.95 CIs.
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
1
Liberal
Democrat
.75
.75
.5
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
.25
0
0
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
AOT
00
11
AOT Thinking (zscore)
Actively Open-minded
N= 750. Derived from logistic regression. Colored barsdenote 0.95 CIs.
22
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to
“human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Probability of “agree”
1
.75
Liberal
Democrat
.5
Conservative
Republican
.25
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
AOT Test (no. correct)
Cognitive Reflection
N = 1600. Brackets denote 0.95 CIs.
2
2 big questions:
2 big questions:
1. What next?
2 big questions:
1. What next?
2. Implications for effective science
communication?