Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison Williams
Outline
• 1) Projecting Hamels future value using his current value with risk
involved
• 2) Putting a dollar value on that WAR
• 3) Finding possible trade partners
• 4) Valuing those prospects based on WAR, age, position, and rank
and associated a dollar value with that
• 5) Coming up with possible trade packages that provides the most
value for the teams involved
• 6) Estimating added wins
• 7) Calculating added revenue for those teams
Stage 1
Finding Hamels Present and Future Value
• To find Hamels PV we used a combination of our own SIERA
calculation and a consistency rating.
• Calculated SIERA – K% , BB% , GB – (FB+IFFB)
• Consistency rating – Our SIERA + WAR + FIP weighted over the
last 3 years
Hamels Current Value
2014
1 Pitcher Name
2 Clayton Kershaw
3 Felix Hernandez
4 David Price
5 Stephen Strasburg
6 Corey Kluber
7 Hisashi Iwakuma
8 Chris Sale
9 Phil Hughes
10 Zack Greinke
11 Brandon McCarthy
12 Madison Bumgarner
13 Jordan Zimmermann
14 Jeff Samardzija
15 Jon Lester
16 Max Scherzer
17 Alex Wood
18 Johnny Cueto
19 Dallas Keuchel
20 Garrett Richards
21 Alex Cobb
Team
IP
Dodgers
Mariners
--Nationals
Indians
Mariners
White Sox
Twins
Dodgers
--Giants
Nationals
----Tigers
Braves
Reds
Astros
Angels
Rays
22Cole Hamels
Phillies
23 James Shields
24 Hiroki Kuroda
25 Mike Leake
26 Adam Wainwright
Royals
Yankees
Reds
Cardinals
198.1
236
248.1
215
235.2
179
174
209.2
202.1
200
217.1
199.2
219.2
219.2
220.1
171.2
243.2
200
168.2
166.1
W
21
15
15
14
18
15
12
16
17
10
18
14
7
16
18
11
20
12
13
10
L
3
6
12
11
9
9
4
10
8
15
10
5
13
11
5
11
9
9
4
9
WAR
7.2
6.2
6.1
4.3
7.3
3.2
5.4
6.1
3.9
3
3.6
5.2
4.1
6.1
5.6
2.5
4.1
3.9
4.3
2.7
Calculated SIERA
2.05
2.57
2.70
2.71
2.73
2.79
2.81
2.93
2.96
2.98
3.05
3.08
3.11
3.23
3.36
3.40
3.41
3.44
3.50
3.50
204.2
9
9
3.8
3.54
227
199
214.1
227
14
11
11
20
8
9
13
9
3.7
3.5
1.9
4.5
3.56
3.57
3.58
3.59
2012-2014
Pitcher Name
Calculated SIERA
Consistency Value
1 Felix Hernandez
2.86
24.45
2 Clayton Kershaw
2.80
24.36
3 David Price
3.05
24.12
4 Chris Sale
2.99
24.11
5 Max Scherzer
3.26
23.84
6 Zack Greinke
3.31
23.78
3.40
23.71
8 Madison Bumgarner
3.32
23.69
9 James Shields
3.55
23.65
10 Adam Wainwright
3.24
23.63
11 Jeff Samardzija
3.48
23.21
12 R.A. Dickey
3.94
23.17
13 Jordan Zimmermann
3.40
23.08
14 Justin Verlander
3.88
22.96
15 Hiroki Kuroda
3.60
22.90
7 Cole Hamels
Stage 1
Finding his future value over control years
• Combination of projected WAR calculations and player
comparisons
• Weighted his projected WAR at 40% and his player comps at
60%
• Comparisons - pitchers with similar:
•
•
•
•
•
stats through age 30
physical attributes
mechanics
pitching style
pitch tendencies
Pitchers Comparisons
Tom Glavine
Roy Oswalt
Chuck Finley
Cliff Lee
Mark Buehrle
Pedro Martinez
The Johan Santana Comparison
Hamels
• Cole Hamel’s Pitch Breakdown
compared to Johan Santana’s
• Average Velocity on FB over course of
career both 91.2
FB
CH
CT
CB
94
Santana
93
92
91
Hamels
90
Santana
89
FB
CH
88
SL
87
Other
86
26
27
28
29
30
31
Stage 1
Hamels WAR from 31-35
Age
aWAR
GlaWAR
OswWAR FinWAR
LeeWAR
BeuWAR PedWAR HamWAR weiAVG
5/3/2 proj
26
5.2
4.7
6.3
3.6
4.2
6
6.4
3.5
5.05
27
5
3.5
5.6
4.5
2.7
1.8
11.9
4.7
4.71
28 4.233333
3.4
5.6
2.8
0.2
3.5
9.9
4.4
4.06
29
4.5
4.2
4.4
1.2
7.1
4.3
5.8
4.1
4.1
30
5.1
5.1
3.1
4.9
6.5
3.2
7.8
3.8
4.88
31 4.766667
3.6
3
3.5
7
3.7
7.8
4.23
4.01
32 4.816667
4.7
4.3
4.3
6.5
3.4
5.7
4.69
4.03
33 4.016667
4.2
2.5
4.9
4.8
1.9
5.8
3.99
4.22
34 2.966667
4.5
0.7
2.8
5.1
2.7
2
3.03
4.20
35 2.216667
1.5
0.9
4.5
1.7
3.5
1.2
2.17
3.86
Standard Deviation = 1.85
Tot_AVG UP_AVG
4.14
4.43
4.08
3.50
2.85
95% Confidence Interval = +/- 0.66 Wins
LOW_AVG
4.80
3.49
5.08
3.77
4.74
3.42
4.15
2.84
3.50
2.19
Stage 1
Hamels WAR from 31-35
Future WAR
9
8
Age
7
WAR
31
4.14
5
32
4.43
33
4.08
34
3.50
35
2.85
WAR
6
4
3
2
1
0
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Age
Chuck Finley
Cliff Lee
Mark Buehrle
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Roy Oswalt
Average
37
Stage 1
95% Confidence Interval
Future WAR
9
8
7
WAR
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
33
33.5
34
34.5
Age
Chuck Finley
Cliff Lee
Mark Buehrle
Tom Glavine
Roy Oswalt
Tot_AVG
Upper Average
Lower Average
Pedro Martinez
35
35.5
Stage 2
Putting a Dollar Value on Hamels WAR
Age
WAR
Expected Value
WAR Value
NPV Expected
$126,602,538.67
Contract
31
4.142
$28,994,000.00
$7,000,000.00
$23,500,000.00
32
4.426
$32,534,040.00
$7,350,000.00
$23,500,000.00
33
4.080
$31,489,869.60
$7,717,500.00
$23,500,000.00
34
3.497
$28,334,196.20
$8,103,375.00
$23,500,000.00
35
2.845
$24,207,392.36
$8,508,543.75
$20,000,000.00
NPV Contract
$99,000,360.18
Surplus
$27,602,178.49
Stage 3
Risk Assessment- Hamels
• Factors that influence future injuries, ranked in order of
importance
– Past Injuries
– Decreased FB Velocity
– Pitch Type
– Mechanics
– Injury Before Age 24
– Pitcher Comparisons
Past Injuries
• 2004- Elbow Tendonitis (minors) missed 40 games (20)
• 2007- Elbow Ligament soreness, missed 30 games (23)
• 2011- Surgery on elbow in off season, returned healthy for
2012 opener
• 2013- Reported shoulder soreness, nothing came of it
Injury Adjustment
Age
WAR
Expected Value
WAR Value
NPV Excpected
Contract
31
4.14
$28,994,000.00 $7,000,000.00
$126,602,538.67 $23,500,000.00
32
4.43
$32,534,040.00 $7,350,000.00
$23,500,000.00
33
4.08
$31,489,869.60 $7,717,500.00
$23,500,000.00
34
3.50
$28,334,196.20 $8,103,375.00
$23,500,000.00
35
2.85
$24,207,392.36 $8,508,543.75
$20,000,000.00
NPV Contract
$99,000,360.18
NPV Surplus
Value
Adjustment
after Injury
Assessment
$27,602,178.49 $30,362,396.34
Stage 3
Finding Possible Trade Partners
Nationals
Max Scherzer
Stephen
Strasburg
Jordan
Zimmermann
Gio Gonzalez
Doug Fister
Total War
With Hamels
% Increase
WAR
Dodgers
Clayton
4.9 Kershaw
3.7 Zack Greinke
WAR
Cardinals
Adam
5.9 Wainwright
Carlos
3.2 Martinez
3.7 Hyun-Jin Ryu
2.6 Lance Lynn
Brandon
Michael
2.6 McCarthy
1.9 Wacha
Brett
2 Anderson
0.7 John Lackey
16.9
13.6
17.8
16.5
5.33%
21.32%
WAR
Red Sox
3.9 Rick Porcello
2.3 Wade Miley
Clay
2.8 Buchholz
Justin
1.7 Masterson
1.8 Joe Kelly
12.5
13.6
8.80%
WAR
Pirates
2.9 Gerrit Cole
Francisco
2.4 Liriano
Vance
1.7 Worley
WAR
Blue Jays
Marcus
2.6 Stroman
Mark
2.3 Buehrle
Drew
1.2 Hutchison
WAR
Cubs
2.8 Jon Lester
Kyle
2.6 Hendricks
WAR
4
2.6
1.8 Jake Arrieta 1.7
Jason
1.4 A.J. Burnett
1.5 R.A. Dickey
1.9 Hammel
1.2
Marco
Tsuyoshi
0.6 Jeff Locke
0.3 Estrada
0.9 Wada
0.8
9
7.9
10
10.3
11.3
10.5
12
12.4
25.56%
32.91%
20.00%
20.39%
Stage 4
Valuing Prospects
• Method:
– Player age, position and level gave us a risk value (low, med, high)
– Examined prospect ranking charts
– Equated above findings to find their surplus value over first 6 years of
service time
Trade Option 2
Jameson Taillon
(RHP)
Age: 23
• Total Surplus Value = $26.88
• Baseball America #31 Pirates #2
• Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60
| Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
• “potential number two starter”
• 2nd Overall Pick in the 2010 Draft out of HS
Austin Meadows
(OF)
Age: 19
• Total Surplus Value= $22.54 Million
• Baseball America #46 Pirates #4
• Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 40 |
Field: 60 | Overall: 55
• “He has a smooth left-handed swing and an advanced
approach at the plate”
• 9th pick in 2013 Draft out of HS
Jacoby Jones
(2B/OF)
Age: 22
• Total Surplus Value≈ 5 Million.
• Pirates #12
• Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 65
|Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45
• “Jones has the tools to do just about everything on the
baseball field”
• 3rd Round Pick in 2013 out of LSU
Trade Option 2 - Pirates
NPV Received
Pirates
Get
$52,009,779.69
$21,647,383.35
Hamels
$30,362,396.34
Jones
$51,800,000.00
$52,009,779.69
CASH
Give
NPV Given
$51,800,000.00
$4,733,333.33
Meadows
$21,466,666.67
Taillon
$25,600,000.00
Trade Option 2 - Phillies
NPV Received
Phillies
Get
Jones
$51,800,000.00
$52,009,779.69
$51,800,000.00
$4,733,333.33
Meadows
$21,466,666.67
Taillon
$25,600,000.00
Give
NPV Given
$52,009,779.69
CASH
$21,647,383.35
Hamels
$30,362,396.34
Converting Wins to Revenue
Increase in wins effect on playoff revenue
Increase in wins effect on ticket revenue
Postseason Effect on Revenue
0.12
% Increase in
Revenue
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Making the Playoffs
Not Making the Playoffs
Pirates
Pirates
• 2014 vs. 2013 – 14.6% increase in revenue
• Average 10.1% and 14.6%
• 12.35% Increase
Playoff Percentage vs. Wins
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Non Linear Regression
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Non Linear Regression
Wins
Wins Regression
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
PO%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
8.73%
10.42%
12.48%
14.99%
18.07%
21.81%
26.35%
31.77%
38.13%
45.37%
53.26%
61.42%
69.33%
76.45%
82.37%
86.91%
90.12%
92.23%
93.52%
94.25%
94.65%
Trade Option 2 – Playoff Revenue Added
Wins
Pirates
Phillies (Year 6)
2014 Rev
$204,000,000.00
$265,000,000.00
Playoffs
$229,200,876.40
$291,765,000.00
No Playoffs
$217,286,630.54
$280,635,000.00
$11,914,245.86
$11,130,000.00
3.8
3.1
Rev Dif
Wins added
Wins bef
84.2
PO% bef
46.9%
Wins aft
88.0
PO% aft
76.5%
PO% Dif
29.6%
11.1%
$3,520,939.19
$1,237,309.60
Rev Added
PO%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
5.53%
6.29%
7.23%
8.42%
9.93%
11.88%
14.38%
17.63%
21.82%
27.18%
33.92%
42.12%
51.58%
61.77%
71.79%
80.68%
87.76%
92.81%
96.07%
98.00%
99.05%
Wins vs. Attendance
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Trade Option 2 – Ticket Revenue Added
Pirates
Wins added
Wins bef
Attendance bef
Wins aft
Phillies (Year 6)
3.8
3.1
84.2
2,566,700.0
88.0
Attendance aft
2,810,667.0
Attendance Dif
243,967
197,358
Avg Ticket Price
$73.91
$82.10
$18,031,601
$16,203,092
Ticket Rev Added
Trade Option 2 – Total Revenue Added
Pirates
Phillies (Year 6)
Playoff Rev Added
$1,237,310
$3,520,939
Ticket Rev Added
$16,203,092
$18,031,601
Sum Rev Added
$17,440,401
$21,552,540
Total Rev Added
Avg Rev Added
$38,992,942
$19,496,471
Red Sox Surplus OF
Red Sox
WAR
Mookie Betts
3.4
Rusney Castillo
Daniel Nava
Allen Craig
2.6
Shane Victorino
Brock Holt
1.5
Jackie Bradley Jr.
1.4
0.9
1.4
1
Projecting Nava’s Potential Effect
Nava WAR = 1.4
Blue Jays
Jose Bautista
Michael Saunders*
Kevin Pillar
WAR
Cardinals
5.2 Matt Holliday
1.9 Jason Heyward
0.7 Jon Jay
0.2
Dalton Pompey
WAR
4.9
0.3
1.6
2
8.8
8.2
-6.82%
Cubs
2.8 Jorge Soler
4.9 Dexter Fowler
1.4 Chris Denorfia
1.4
Peter Bourjos
8
9.2
15.00%
Dodgers
Yasiel Puig
Andre Ethier
Carl Crawford
Joc Pederson
WAR
10.5
10.5
0.00%
Nationals
Bryce Harper
Jayson Werth
Denard Span
Tyler Moore
WAR
Arismendy Alcantara
WAR
2.2
1.3
0.4
0.5
4.4
5.3
20.45%
Pirates
WAR
4.2 Andrew McCutchen
6.1
2.8 Starling Marte
3.3
2.7 Josh Harrison
2.8
0.1 Gregory Polanco
0.8
9.8
13
11.1
13.6
13.27%
4.62%
Projecting Nava’s Potential Effect
Nava WAR = 1.4
Blue Jays
Jose Bautista
Michael Saunders*
Kevin Pillar
WAR
Cardinals
5.2 Matt Holliday
1.9 Jason Heyward
0.7 Jon Jay
0.2
Dalton Pompey
WAR
4.9
0.3
1.6
2
8.8
8.2
-6.82%
Cubs
2.8 Jorge Soler
4.9 Dexter Fowler
1.4 Chris Denorfia
1.4
Peter Bourjos
8
9.2
15.00%
Dodgers
Yasiel Puig
Andre Ethier
Carl Crawford
Joc Pederson
WAR
10.5
10.5
0.00%
Nationals
Bryce Harper
Jayson Werth
Denard Span
Tyler Moore
WAR
Arismendy Alcantara
WAR
2.2
1.3
0.4
0.5
4.4
5.3
20.45%
Pirates
WAR
4.2 Andrew McCutchen
6.1
2.8 Starling Marte
3.3
2.7 Josh Harrison
2.8
0.1 Gregory Polanco
0.8
9.8
13
11.1
13.6
13.27%
4.62%
Who needs closer help?
Blue Jays
WAR
Brett Cecil
Nationals
Drew Storen
Cardinals
WAR
0.5 Trevor Rosenthal
WAR
Pirates
0.3 Mark Melancon
Cubs
WAR
1 Hector Rondon
WAR
Red Sox
0.9 Koji Uehara
Dodgers
0.3 Kenley Jansen
WAR
1
WAR
1.3
Who needs closer help?
Blue Jays
WAR
Brett Cecil
Nationals
Drew Storen
Cardinals
WAR
0.5 Trevor Rosenthal
WAR
Pirates
0.3 Mark Melancon
Cubs
WAR
1 Hector Rondon
WAR
Red Sox
0.9 Koji Uehara
Dodgers
0.3 Kenley Jansen
WAR
1
WAR
1.3
Trade Option 1
Manuel Margot
(OF)
Age: 20
• Total Surplus Value= $20.4 Million
• Baseball America #99 Red Sox # 5
• Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 65 |
Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50
• “very quick hands and a patient approach at the plate”
• “Already skipped a level, on track to reach the Majors at age
22”
Eduardo Rodriguez
(LHP)
Age: 21
• Total Surplus Value= $17.8 Million
• Baseball America #65 Red Sox #4
• Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 |
Control: 50 | Overall: 50
• “throws his fastball in the low 90s, with good sink and
movement”
• “profiles as a possible middle-of-the rotation starter”
Jeff Hoffman
(RHP)
Age: 22
• Total Surplus Value= $14.2 Million
• Baseball America #87 Blue Jays #3
• Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65 |
Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
• “he works in the mid 90s and hits 98 mph with his fastball”
• 9th pick in the 2014 Draft
Trey Ball
(LHP)
• Total Surplus Value≈ 4 million
Age: 20
• Red Sox #11
• Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 |
Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50
• “An excellent athlete, Ball was considered the top two-way
player in the 2013 Draft class (7th overall)”
• “Ball's ceiling might be the highest of all of the Red Sox
pitching prospects”
Trade Option 1 - Blue Jays
NPV Received
Blue Jays
Get
$13,528,639.46
$7,437,641.72
Nava
$12,430,000.00
Papelbon
-$6,339,002.27
Hoffman
$13,533,333.33
$13,528,639.46
CASH
Give
NPV Given
$13,533,333.33
$13,533,333.33
Trade Option 1 - Red Sox
NPV Received
Red Sox
Get
$52,009,779.69
NPV Given
$52,563,333.33
$52,009,779.69
CASH
$21,647,383.35
Hamels
$30,362,396.34
Give
$52,563,333.33
Ball
$3,800,000.00
Margot
$19,400,000.00
Nava
$12,430,000.00
Rogriguez
$16,933,333.33
Trade Option 1 - Phillies
NPV Received
Phillies
Get
Ball
$53,666,666.67
$53,108,419.15
$53,666,666.67
$3,800,000.00
Hoffman
$13,533,333.33
Margot
$19,400,000.00
Rogriguez
$16,933,333.33
Give
NPV Given
$53,108,419.15
CASH
$29,085,025.08
Hamels
$30,362,396.34
Papelbon
-$6,339,002.27
Trade Option 1 – Playoff Revenue Added
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Phillies (Year 6)
2014 Rev
$357,000,000.00
$218,000,000.00
$265,000,000.00
Playoffs
$393,057,000.00
$240,018,000.00
$291,765,000.00
No Playoffs
$378,063,000.00
$230,862,000.00
$280,635,000.00
$14,994,000.00
$9,156,000.00
$11,130,000.00
3.5
2.0
3.2
Wins bef
87.0
84.0
PO% bef
69.3%
45.4%
Wins aft
90.5
86.0
PO% aft
88.7%
61.4%
PO% Dif
19.3%
16.1%
11.47%
$4,031,067.13
$1,469,993.20
$1,276,635.32
Rev Dif
Wins added
Rev Added
Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue Added
Red Sox
Wins added
Blue Jays
Phillies (Year 6)
3.5
2.0
87.0
84.0
2,744,500
2,554,000
90.5
86.0
Attendance aft
2,969,417
2,681,000
Attendance Dif
224,917
127,000
204,724
Avg Ticket Price
$141.59
$104.54
$82.10
$31,845,998
$13,276,580
$16,807,840
Wins bef
Attendance bef
Wins aft
Ticket Rev Added
3.2
Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue Added
Red Sox
Wins added
Blue Jays
Phillies (Year 6)
3.5
2.0
87.0
84.0
2,744,500
2,554,000
90.5
86.0
Attendance aft
2,969,417
2,681,000
Attendance Dif
224,917
127,000
204,724
Avg Ticket Price
$141.59
$104.54
$82.10
$31,845,998
$13,276,580
$16,807,840
Wins bef
Attendance bef
Wins aft
Ticket Rev Added
3.2
Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue Added
Red Sox
Wins added
Blue Jays
Phillies (Year 6)
3.5
2.0
87.0
84.0
2,744,500
2,554,000
90.5
86.0
Attendance aft
2,969,417
2,681,000
Attendance Dif
224,917
127,000
204,724
Avg Ticket Price
$141.59
$104.54
$82.10
$31,845,998
$13,276,580
$16,807,840
Wins bef
Attendance bef
Wins aft
Ticket Rev Added
3.2
÷
224,917
81 Home games
2,776 Per Game
37,811 Max Capacity
- 36,495 Avg Attendance
1,316 Per Game
Trade Option 1 – Total Revenue Added
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Phillies (Year 6)
Playoff Rev Added
$4,031,067
$1,469,993
$1,276,635
Ticket Rev Added
$31,845,998
$13,276,580
$16,807,840
Sum Rev Added
$35,877,065
$14,746,573
$18,084,476
Total Rev Added
Avg Rev Added
$68,708,114
$22,902,705
Sources
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http://www.fangraphs.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
http://www.draysbay.com/2012/3/9/2847644/prospect-values
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=tor
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/19/7815629/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2015
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/23/7878709/pittsburgh-pirates-top-20-prospects-for-2015
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/cole-hamels/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/
http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?TeamID=PIT&StatType=RotoChamp
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=zips&team=14&players=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/baseball_attendance.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/
http://blog.tiqiq.com/2014/03/2014-mlb-tickets-prices-by-team/
Diamond Dollars by Vince Gennaro
Questions?