1 The Political Economy of Environmental Tax Design* Matthieu Glachant, CERNA, Ecole des Mines de Paris This version: October 2001 Correspondence to: Matthieu Glachant, CERNA, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 60, boulevard St Michel, 75006 Paris, France, tel: +33 1 40 51 9229. E-mail: [email protected] * I would like to thank Luca de Benedictis and Margaret Armstrong for helpful discussions and comments. Part of the paper was written while I was Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute. 2 Abstract If regulation remains by far the dominant approach in actual environmental policy, environmental taxes are no longer a theoretical curiosity. However, existing taxes' design differ significantly with the theoretical solution envisaged in the textbooks. In particular, earmarking prevails and actual taxes are usually combined with regulation. Furthermore tax rates are generally too low to significantly influence polluters' behavior. The paper develops a political economy model to explain these design issues. It focuses on three parameters: tax rate, earmarking pattern and whether the tax is combined with a regulation. These parameters are jointly selected through a voting procedure influenced by a green lobby and an industrial lobby making campaign contributions. One key assumption is the existence of a status quo policy entailing an emission standard. Results suggest that an earmarked tax which rate is lower than the regulatory shadow price emerges in political equilibrium when the status quo regulation is imperfectly enforced and if the green lobby is sufficiently weak. This is so because earmarking finance abatement subsidies which reduces regulatory compliance cost. In this configuration, a tax is thus introduced to promote regulatory compliance. By contrast, a non-earmarked tax with rate above the regulation shadow price only emerges when the green lobby is very powerful. Key-words: Environmental tax; political economy, earmarking, tax design JEL classification: D72; D78; H23; Q28 3 1. Introduction For years, economists advocate for a widespread use of environmental taxes for meeting environmental policy targets. The main arguments are that they help to save pollution abatement costs and provide higher incentives to innovate in abatement technology than the traditional Command and Control approach based on direct regulation. If regulation remains by far the dominant approach in actual environmental policy, environmental taxes are no longer a theoretical curiosity. In 1995, more than 300 environmental taxes were in place in OECD countries (OECD, 1995) and covered the quasi-complete range of environmental concerns: water or air pollution, noise, waste, land use etc. However, existing taxes and charges differ significantly with the theoretical solution envisaged in the textbooks. In practice, pollution charges are not Pigovian taxes set at a level where the marginal environmental damage is equal to the marginal abatement cost. Paraphrasing the title of a famous paper by Hahn (1991), the patients do not exactly follow the doctor's orders. Several studies suggest how “real” taxes work (Hahn, 1989, OECD, 1995, EEA, 1997). Three main features are worth mentioning. First of all, tax revenues are 4 generally earmarked to finance pollution abatement projects through grants and subsidized loans in the domain they were collected.1 Hence environmental tax revenues are "recycled" in pollution abatement subsidies. Secondly actual taxes usually coexist with regulations. There is a simple historical explanation for that: when taxes are introduced, they do not substitute but are combined with the pre-existing regulatory system. Thirdly, tax rates are said to be too low. This means that rates are below the level of the Pigovian tax (at which marginal damage is equal to marginal abatement cost). But they are usually even too low to have a significant incentive effect on polluters' behavior as well. Their main role is thus one of fund raising.2 This latter feature is probably the most welfare damaging feature of real tax schemes. If a tax is not capable of influencing the polluters’ behavior, it is a precondition for the instrument to bring social benefits in terms of abatement cost savings or innovation incentives that is not being met. This policy context justifies the relevancy of a political economy analysis explaining the actual characteristics of environmental taxes. This is what the paper is attempting to do. It aims to analyze in a political economy framework environmental tax design issues: why is earmarking prevalent? Why are charge rates low and how the combination of the taxes with regulatory constraints affect the different charge parameters? The analysis deals with the three different design parameters: tax rate, earmarking pattern and whether the tax is combined with a regulation. We propose a model where these parameters are jointly selected through a voting procedure influenced by a green lobby and an industrial lobby making campaign contributions. The political part of the model is directly derived from a simple formulation combining probabilistic voting and lobbying recently suggested by Persson and Tabellini (2000, p 58) which were adapting a previous formulation by Baron (1994). As to the "non-political" part of the model, two assumptions are central. Firstly, we assume the possibility that the status quo is not the absence of any environmental 1 Earmarking remains prevalent even though it has been recently less favoured with the current so-called Ecological tax Reforms going on in several EU countries. The general principle of this reform is to use environmental tax revenues to cut labor taxes thus allowing for a "double dividend" in terms of employment and environment. 2 The universal validity of this claim may be a bit more fragile than the others. To formally establish that taxes does not influence polluters’ behaviours require econometric studies. As a matter of fact, surveys by the European Environmental Agency (1997) and OECD (1997) recently argued that econometric evaluations of environmental tax effectiveness were in fact very scarce. However, based on qualitative evidence, it is quite universally made (Hahn, 1989, OECD, 1995, Pearson, 1995...). 5 policy. Instead we assume that a regulation has been set through the same voting procedure in the past and is still in force. This captures the fact that a regulation frequently pre-exists when an emission charge is introduced: the setting up of a new environmental tax is then a matter of policy change. This strongly affects the political equilibrium since any policy change proposal is assessed by the agents against the status quo. The second central assumption of the model is that the regulation is imperfectly enforced. Again this is in line with what happens in reality: due to limited administrative resources, full compliance with regulation is unlikely to be observed. As we will see, this assumption crucially influences tax design in our model: imperfect enforcement confers a role of regulatory enforcement incentive to the tax only when revenues are earmarked. This is the key factor that leads political equilibrium to include an earmarking provision in our analysis. The paper is organized as follows. A second section reviews the literature which has already quite extensively worked on some aspects of tax design and discusses the relevancy of our own contribution in this context. A third section introduces the model. In section 4., we characterize the status quo policy. Section 5. enters into the core of the analysis. It focuses on a situation of perfect enforcement of the regulation, so that the pollution abatement level in status quo corresponds to the level prescribed by the emission standard. Our analysis predicts that policy changes only occur under very restrictive conditions in this configuration. More specifically, the green lobby needs to be much more influential than the industrial lobby to be able to foster its best policy option: a non earmarked tax. The preference of the greens for non earmarking being basically determined by the fact that they receive a share of the tax revenue. In that configuration the tax rate is high (more specifically higher than the regulation shadow price). In section 6., we consider that the case where regulation is imperfectly enforced. This changes the status quo position since now there is no pollution abatement initially. It widens the room for policy change: a tax is systematically introduced in this case but its design differs according to the relative strength of the green and industrial lobbies. In particular, when the green lobby is less powerful in relative terms, the political equilibrium involves the introduction of non-earmarked tax which complements the imperfectly enforced regulation. Tax rate is predicted to be low, that is under the regulation shadow cost. The basic reason is that earmarking permit to subsidize regulatory compliance and thus rises abatement level even at a low rate. When regulatory enforcement is not perfect, the political equilibrium is thus in line with the prevalent tax design encountered in reality. Section 7. concludes. 6 2. The literature on the political economy of environmental tax design The formal political economy literature on environmental taxes is now developing quickly. Most contributions focus on the question of the instrument choice: they investigate why regulation remains much more widespread than environmental charges or other economic instruments of pollution control (see Djikstraa, 1999 for a recent survey). In comparison, the literature on design aspects is more limited. Most papers focus on earmarking. By far the most popular line of argument put the emphasis on the influence on interest groups. Buchanan together with Gordon Tullock provide the basis of these arguments in a very influential contribution published in 1975. The paper is concerned with instrument choice (pollution tax versus direct regulation) but it directly applies to earmarking. It can be summarized as follows. In comparison with a non-earmarked tax, the distributional pattern of earmarking is reversed: the winners are the polluters (since they get back through subsidies tax payments) and the losers are the consumers (which would have benefited from tax revenue otherwise). This distributional pattern combined with the classical Olson's argument suggesting that the polluters' lobby gathering a lower number of members with higher unit stakes will be more influential than the consumer lobby leads to predict earmarking in political equilibrium. This is a positive argument explaining the prevalence of earmarking but it immediately leads to an efficiency argument developed for instance in a paper by Hansen (1999). In an incomplete contract setting, Hansen develops a model where earmarking is seen as a way to limit the political distortions introduced by polluters' lobbying against nonearmarked taxation. A second line of arguments about earmarking moves the emphasis on voting concerns and elections. It is convenient to begin its presentation by reminding the standard "normative" argument of the theory of public finance against earmarking. Earmarking is essentially a constraint on the regulator's choice over tax revenue allocation. Ex ante, this constraint can perfectly be justified from an efficiency point of view. But ex post, this might not be true because the economic environment evolves over time: earmarking then prevents welfare improving adjustments. A political economy argument against this view was made again by Buchanan (1963) and subsequently extended by Goetz (1965). Their point is that the standard argument no 7 longer holds when one adopts a more realistic view of the regulator. In particular, earmarking can be efficient if budgetary decisions are made through a voting process as it is the case in actual Parliaments. The rationale is that earmarking modifies the contents of the budgetary decision. Instead of voting twice and separately over public expenses and revenues, the constrained budgetary decision consists in selecting the bundle of public goods to be provided. Put differently, earmarking oblige to jointly decide over the level of provision of a particular public good (like pollution abatement) and its cost. It transforms the budgetary decision into a uni-dimensional policy choice. Consequently, earmarking drives away the efficiency problem associated with strategic voting over multidimensional policy under majority rule: the median voter theorem holds and there exists a single voting equilibrium. In a recent contribution, Brett and Keen (2000) suggest another argument. They develop a voting model where earmarking is shown as possibly efficient by limiting the negative impacts of electoral cycles and of political uncertainty associated with. These contributions focussing on voting properties by Buchanan, Goetz or Brett & Keen actually do not bring positive but efficiency arguments. More precisely, they do not explain why earmarking prevails. Rather they arguments claim that earmarking is efficient in a politically constrained context. If we come back to more positive analysis of earmarking, Bös has recently offered a very rich analysis by entering more deeply into the government "black box" (2000). He develops of post-election politics model where the tax is selected by a Parliament controlling two ministers. One is the finance minister in charge of collecting tax, the other being the tax spender. A principal-agent setting is used to model the relationship between the Parliament and the ministers. Considering the internal structure of the government leads Bös to stress the importance of uncertainty over the future states of the world. If the Parliament or the ministers face high uncertainties, the scope for earmarking is reduced. The reason is that they will prefer to benefit from the non affected tax revenue to face a possible worsening of the economic situation. In other words, earmarking is a "safety net" against future negative shocks on the economy (and thus on public spending) in Bös' framework. In the end, many arguments are available to explain the prevalence of earmarking. This is not true as regards other design aspects (tax rate, combination with regulation). To our knowledge, there is only one paper written by Fredriksson (1997) which explores the relationship between tax rate, abatement subsidy rate, lobby membership, and product price. There is no earmarking in his model since the abatement subsidy is exogenous. The political part of the model is the popular common 8 agency model introduced by Bernhein and Whinston (1986) and subsequently applied to political economy issues by Grossman and Helpmann (1994). Fredriksson's analysis yields classical results about the influence of lobby membership on the tax parameters (for instance, the more members in the industrial lobby, the lower the tax rate) or other exogenous variables (e.g. the product price). One interesting result is that total pollution may be increasing in the abatement subsidy rate because of political distortions. This is so because inter alia the abatement subsidy reduces the industry's marginal cost and hence output increases. This may stimulate lobbying activity of industry because a higher level of output makes a low pollution tax rate more important. In this context, a general analysis of tax design seems relevant. Our approach will be fairly classical in that we will concentrate on the distributional patterns of different design and their subsequent impacts on lobbies and voters' behavior in line with Fredriksson's model for instance, or the historical Buchanan and Tullock's paper. One difference with Fredriksson's paper is that, to model the political process, we will not apply the common agency approach popularized by Grossmann and Helpman. Instead, we will use a model of electoral competition with probabilistic voting and lobbies making campaign contributions. This is a model of pre-election politics since politicians commit to electoral platforms involving an environmental tax which is implemented if he wins the election. By contrast, the Grossmann and Helpman's approach is a post election model with political decisions being made by elected politicians already in charge who search for re-election. This methodological difference is not crucial however since both models bring similar results. 3. The model We assume an open economy made of one (representative) producer of a good who is also a polluter, a population of individuals who are voters and may be lobby members and two politicians competing for a future election. The polluter and the environmental policy The producer produces a good and emits a pollutant in the environment. More specifically the producer’s surplus is: 9 (q) = ° - C(q) where ° is the profit resulting from the production of the good. It is a scalar because we assume that the economy is small and open so that a change in the polluter’s total production cost does not alter the good’s market price.3 C(q) is a pollution abatement function varying with q, the quantity of pollution abated (q>0). C(q) is assumed twicely differentiable, continuous and convex because of decreasing returns to pollution abatement. In the absence of environmental policy, the polluter discharges a quantity of pollution, Q. We also maintain throughout that ° > C(q), q (pollution abatement cannot lead the producer to bankruptcy). The producer possibly faces a regulation imposing a quantitative constraint on its polluting emission. More specifically, we assume an emission standard prescribing the polluter to abate a minimal quantity of pollution R. We explicitly model the enforcement of the emission standard. This is done in a very simple way. The non-compliant polluter bears an expected lump sum fine F (which is the product of the fine with a probability of inspection). In this context, he decides whether to comply by considering R the difference between the sanction and the cost of compliance R = F - C(R) In section 4., we consider the case where is positive, that is the polluter complies. Section 5. deals with the opposite case. The polluter also faces an emission tax to be paid on each unit of pollution discharged at a flat rate t. The polluter's tax payment generates a revenue (q, t) = (q – Q)t which can be used in two different ways. This is represented by an index variable which takes the value 1 and 0 if revenues are "recycled" to finance pollution abatement (= earmarking), or redistributed to the whole population respectively. When earmarking prevails ( = 1), charge revenues are used to finance an abatement cost subsidy. This subsidy is granted to the polluter if he decides to abate beyond Q, its initial level of pollution. The subsidy is equal to a fixed proportion s of its abatement cost with s [0, 1]. Hence total subsidy is s.C(q). The fact that the subsidy is based on abatement cost (and not on the quantity of pollution abated for 3 This assumption greatly simplifies the analysis driving away general equilibrium aspects. It is made in other contributions where consequences on the labour, or good markets are not the core of the analysis (see for instance Fredriksson, 1997). 10 instance) is in line with the reality where revenues are distributed to polluters through investment grants and soft loans in order to reduce net abatement costs. In our setting, s is endogenous since it is given by the earmarking constraint: sC(q) = (Q-q)t (1) In the absence of earmarking ( = 1), tax revenues are totally distributed as a lump sum subsidy to the population.4 Hence the total revenue redistributed to the population is (1 - )(Q-q)t To sum up, the polluter faces a policy vector denoted h = (t, , R). The population The economy is populated with heterogeneous citizens of three distinct types, J = G, C, I representing the greens, the consumers and the industrialists, respectively. The size of the population is normalized to one. The population share of group J is J, with J =1. The three groups have very different stakes vis-à-vis the polluter’s activity. Only the individuals of the green group G derive utility from pollution abatement. In the case where tax revenues are not earmarked ( = 0), they also receive a fraction of the revenues generated by the tax. As individuals share identical additively separable preferences, we immediately consider the total utility of the group UG = B(q) + G(1-) (q, t) (2) where B(q) represents the environmental benefit of pollution abatement. We have B>0, B’>0 and B(0) = 0. When deriving the political equilibrium, the individual utility is more convenient to use. It will be denoted uG = UG/G Consumers of group C are neither affected by pollution damages nor by the cut in producer’s profit due to pollution abatement. But they derive an utility U° from the consumption good produced by the polluter. U° is again a scalar in line with the assumption that the economy is small and open. In the case tax revenue are not 4 We assume that there is no shadow cost for providing public funds. This assumption is justified by the willingness to avoid any efficiency advantages to one of two instruments (tax versus regulation). This allows for concentrating the analysis on the political factors. Assuming a shadow cost would have de facto given a cost advantage to the regulation. 11 earmarked, they receive a fraction of the revenue. Hence, the group total utility and the individual utility are respectively: UC = U° + C(1 - ) (q, t) uC = UC/C (3) The industrialists from group I own the polluter and are thus negatively affected by compliance costs and tax payments. Just as the other groups, they receive a fraction of tax revenues when there is no earmarking. Conversely, when revenues are earmarked, the producer receives the totality of the revenue in the form of cost subsidies. The industrialist group’s total utility is thus given by: UI = ° - C(q) - (1 - I)(1-) (q, t) (4) And the individual industrialist utility remains denoted uI = UI /I The political process How is the environmental policy vector selected? We consider a probabilistic voting model where two candidates P =A, B maximize their probability to win the elections pP. They are elected by the individuals from the population on the basis of electoral platforms. Some voters are organized in lobbies so that they can make campaign contributions that influence the results of the elections. More precisely, at the initial stage of the political game, each candidate P commits to an electoral platform consisting of a particular policy vector hP. Individuals are assumed to vote sincerely considering the platform and two variables and iJ. is a random variable measuring the average (relative) popularity of candidate B over candidate A in the population as a whole. It is the probabilistic element of the voting process: is unknown to the candidates when they commit to platforms. iJ represents the ideological biases of the individual i from group J in favor of the candidate B (or in favor of the party of candidate B). Hence, a voter from the group J behaves as follows: If uJ(hA) > uJ(hB) + iJ + , he votes for the candidate A If uJ(hB) < uJ(hB) + iJ + , he votes for the candidate B If uJ(hA) = uJ(hB) + iJ + , he decides randomly iJ is common knowledge and is uniformly distributed over the interval [-1/2, 1/2]. Lobby groups are able to influence the popularity shock through campaign contributions. This leads to a new important assumption: 12 Only groups G and I are organized in lobbies. This hypothesis introduces the political distortion that will make the political equilibrium deviating from the utilitarian optimum. This is justified on the ground that they are the two groups with special interests in the environmental policy to be adopted. In comparison the consumers are only concerned by the general interest aspect of the policy: the redistribution of the charge revenues. The indicator variable OJ indicates whether the group J is organized or not. It takes a value of one if it is true, zero otherwise. Hence OG = OI = 1 and OC = 0. Organized groups have the capacity to contribute to the campaign of either of the two candidates. Let JP the contribution per member of the group J to the candidate P. Hence the total contributions collected by candidate P can be expressed as P = OJ JJP These contributions are used by the candidates to increase their popularity. More specifically we assume that has two components: = + g(A – B) g is a parameter measuring the effectiveness of campaign spending and is a random variable uniformly distributed over the interval [-1/2, 1/2]. As to the cost of the contributions for the lobby group J, we assume it exhibits decreasing returns. This can be interpreted in two ways. If transfers by individuals are made in cash, different individuals may differ in their willingness to give. If transfers are made in kind – by working the in campaign- it may reflect the increasing disutility of effort. In fact we assume for the cost a simple quadratic form: J/2(JA2 + JB2), for J = G, I J is a fixed coefficient which introduces an heterogeneity between lobby groups as to their ability to collect contributions and thus ultimately as to their ability to influence the electoral outcome. We assume GI = 1. 13 Finally the timing of events is as follows: (1) The two candidates simultaneously and non-cooperatively announce their electoral platform which is a policy vector hP. (2) The lobbies simultaneously give their campaign contributions to the candidates. (3) The actual value of is realized and all uncertainty is resolved. (4) The elections are held and the winner implements its policy platform (policy platforms are thus binding promises). 4. The status quo policy equilibrium In our setting, the status quo is not a "no-policy" situation. Instead, a regulation is in force. It was set in the past following the same voting procedure. This section characterizes the status quo policy. It will lead us to identify the general properties of the political equilibrium that will be used throughout the analysis. The utilitarian optimum We start the equilibrium analysis considering the utilitarian optimum. This case is interesting since it provides a benchmark against which "distorted" political equilibriums are compared. The utilitarian optimum is given by the maximisation of a welfare function WS* which sums the three groups’ utility, that is WS* = ° + U° + B(R) - C(R) which leads to the condition for an interior optimum: Bq(R) = Cq(R) (5) We note the optimal status quo regulation RS* = arg max WS*(R).5 The political equilibrium with lobbying 5 It means that we assume that the regulation was set up “myopically”, that is considering that enforcement would have been perfect since q = R. This is a very classical assumption in positive analysis of enforcement that reflects the naivete of political agents and voters with respect to the effectiveness of policy implementation. 14 Things become slightly more complicated when political distortions are introduced. Some of the voters - the greens and the industrialists - are now organized in lobby groups. We will analyse the problem going backward, starting with the election stage. The first step of the analysis is to consider the "swing" voter, that is the voter in each group J whose ideological bias denoted J, makes him indifferent between the two parties given the candidates' platforms: J = uJ(hA) - uJ(hB) - + g(A – B) (6) All voters i in group J with iJ < J prefer party A. Hence, given our assumptions on the distribution of iJ, candidate A's vote share is: A = J [J + 1/2] (7) J depends on the realized value of which is known once platforms are announced. Hence A is a random variable from the perspective of the candidates, and the electoral outcome is a random event. Substituting (6) into (7) yields candidate A's probability of winning: pA = Prob {A > 1/2} = Prob { J[uJ(hA) - uJ(hB) + g(A – B)] > .J } which can be rewritten using our assumption on the distribution of : pA = 1/2 + [ WS*(hA) - W(hB) + g(A – B)] (8) where WS* (gP) = JuJ(hP) is the utilitarian social welfare function. The last term reflects campaign spending’s influence on the vote share. The candidate B wins the election with a probability pB = 1– pA. Prior to characterize the optimal platforms announced by the candidates in stage 1, we need to consider the campaign contributions. Each lobby chooses the contribution that maximizes the expected utility its members derive from the elections minus the cost of the contributions Max pAuJ(hA) + (1 - pA)uJ (hB) - J/2(JA2 + JB2) (9) 15 In view of (8) into (9) the group J's optimal contribution is derived:6 JA = Max [0, g/J ( uJ(hA) - uJ(hB))] JB = - Min [0, g/J ( uJ(hA) - uJ(hB))] (10) Thus the groups only contribute to one candidate whose platform gives the highest utility, and never to more than one. We can now consider the choice of the policy platform by the candidates at stage 1. Intuitively, given that both candidates have the same technology to transform contributions into votes and given that the contribution schedule are symmetric, candidates will end up with the same electoral platform. More specifically, each candidate aims to maximise his probability of winning the elections, taking the other's policy platform as given. Substituting (10) into (8) and simplifying, the candidate A and candidate B non cooperatively maximize respectively: J[ + OJ(g)2/J]uJ(hA) J[ + OJ(g)2/J]uJ(hB) (11) This characterizes the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium of the announcement game. In equilibrium, both candidates announce a policy platform that maximizes a welfare function weighed by coefficients J[+OJ(g)2/J]. These coefficients give more weight to groups gathering more individuals and organized in lobby groups. The political part of the analysis is now completed and we can plug (2), (3) and (4) into (11) to get the resulting political support function: US(R) = H° + [+(g)2I] B(R) – [+(g)2G] C(R) with H° being a constant term equal to U°–[+(g)2G]°. Political support maximization immediately yields the condition for an interior maximum which defines the status quo policy RS: By (9) the first order condition of the lobby J with respect to JA is pA /JA [UJ(hA) - UJ(hB)] - JJA = 0 and by (8) pA /JA = g Repeating the same steps for JB we get (10) 6 16 [1+g2I] Bq(RS) = [1+g2G] Cq(RS) (12) As G and I differ, the regulation deviates from the optimal status quo regulation RS*. Unsurprisingly, if G > I, that is if the industrial lobby is more efficient in collecting contributions, abatement level is lower (RS>RS*). 5. The political equilibrium when the enforcement is perfect Having characterised the status quo policy against which current policy change will be judged, we are ready to enter into the core of the analysis, that is the characterisation of the three dimensional policy vector h. As a first step, we will assume that regulation enforcement is perfect (R > 0). Hence, the level of pollution abatement in the status quo position is q = RS. We will see that an earmarked tax is unlikely to emerge as a political equilibrium in this configuration. The polluter's response to the policy mix The problem is a bit complicated by the fact that the polluter is targeted by three policy signals: an emission standard, an emission tax and a cost subsidy (if earmarking prevails). How will he adjust his polluting behavior? Let us firstly identify the response of the polluter to the sole tax and subsidy scheme. He minimizes the objective function: (1-s)C(q) + t(Q-q) where the first term is the abatement cost minus the cost subsidy while the last term is equal to the tax payment based on the polluter’s residual pollution. We immediately get the first order condition: Cq (q) = t/1-s (13) Together with the earmarking condition (1), (13) defines the polluter’s reaction function to the fiscal scheme, denoted qf(t, ). This function is strictly increasing in both t and as demonstrated in Appendix 1. How then do the tax and cost subsidy interact with the emission standard R? It crucially depends on the relative level of qf(t, ) and R: 17 If qf(t, ) > R, (13) is binding and the polluter abates until qf(t, ). In this case, the standard does not have any influence on the polluter and the environmental outcome is fully determined by the tax and the subsidy. If qf(t, ) < R, the regulatory constraint is binding and the polluter abate until R. This is now the turn of the tax and subsidy scheme to have no impact on polluter’s behavior. In the following, this kinked reaction function is denoted q = q* 0 (t, , R) and depicted in Figure 1. R = q* defines the shadow price of the regulation denoted tR0 and tR1 for = 0 and 1, respectively. Figure 1. enforced Polluter's response to the policy mix when the regulation is perfectly Pollution =1 abatement =0 R tR0 tR1 t The utilitarian optimum The characterization of the utilitarian optimum is then straightforward. The optimal policy vector h* = (t*, *, R*) is the solution of the optimisation problem: 18 Max W(h) subject to q = q* 0 (h) sC(q) = t(Q-q) W(h) > WS(RS*) (polluter's reaction function) (earmarking constraint) (status quo constraint) The last inequality constraint imposes the social welfare W(h) to be higher than the status quo. As the welfare function has the same form as in the status quo (W(h) = ° +U° +B(q) –C(q) = WS(q)), it is immediate that the unique solution is q = RS*. This leads to a first proposition. Proposition 1. In the case of perfect enforcement of the regulation (R > 0), the utilitarian optimum h* corresponds to the status quo. That is h* (t*, *, R*) = (0, 0, RS*) The proposition simply reflects the fact that our assumptions do not confer any efficiency (dis)advantage to the regulation over the tax. There is thus no efficiency reason to modify the status quo in this context. Things will change with the introduction of political distortions. The political equilibrium ˆ ) in the political equilibrium, we substitute To identify the vector hˆ = ( ˆt , ˆ , R (2), (3), and (4) into (11) and simplify. It gives the political support function: V(h, q) = H°+ [+(g)2I] B(q) – [+(g)2G] C(q) + (1-)(g)2[GI-(1-I)G] t(Q-q) 19 The solution is obtained through the maximization of V(h) subject to the following set of constraints: q = q* 0 (h) sC(q) = t(Q-q) V (h) > US(RS) It is immediately clear that ≠ 1 in the political equilibrium. If = 1, then U and V have identical functional forms (V(q) = US(q) q). Hence RS is the unconstrained optimum of U whereas hˆ is a constrained optimum of that same function. Hence hˆ cannot yields a higher political support than the status quo. The fact that an earmarked tax cannot be introduced in equilibrium is a crucial result: when enforcement is perfect, the prevalent form of tax observed in practice, that is an earmarked tax combined with regulation is not predicted by our analysis.7 Intuitively, this is so because, the introduction of an earmarked tax does not bring any gain to the different groups of the population in comparison with the status quo (a regulation fully enforced so that the pollution abatement level is RS). It does not generate revenues which could have been distributed to the consumers or to the greens otherwise whereas the industrialists are indifferent between the status quo regulation and a tax fully recycled in the industry via cost subsidies. This changes when tax is no longer earmarked: tax revenues are then redistributed to the population deviations from RS become possible, if not systematic. More precisely, if = 0, we have V(h, q) = U(q) + [GI-(1-I)G](g)2 (q, t) with the last term being the revenue function (q, t) = t (Q-q) weighed by a coefficient. The possibility for deviating from the status quo then crucially depends on the sign of A = GI-(1-I)G: 7 If A < 0, the last term enters negatively in the political support function V. Hence V is systematically inferior to the status quo political support U around the status quo point (that is V (RS)<U(RS)). This cannot be overcome by deviating from RS since any move diminishes the first term U(q): RS is its maximum. Hence, we have the status quo in equilibrium. As we will see, this will no longer be true as soon as we relax the assumption of perfect enforcement of the regulation. 20 If A > 0, a move away from the status quo becomes possible since the last term, enters positively in the political welfare function. As a consequence, the status quo constraint holds in q = RS in this case. As shown in Appendix 2., deviating away from RS increases political support up to the point where: [1+g2G] Cq(q)- [1+g2I] Bq(q) = Ag2 Ωq(q) (14) The first term of (14) represents the marginal loss in terms of abatement cost and environmental benefit from deviating from RS whereas the second term reflects the marginal benefits in terms of additional tax revenue. Equation (14) highlights what determines the sense of the deviation from the status quo. It depends on how the tax revenue function evolves with q. As a matter of fact, the relation between revenue and tax rate is not monotonic. This a classical story usually represented with the so-called Laffer curve. This curve depicts how revenues evolve with the tax rate. As shown in figure 2, this curve is upward sloping up to the maximal revenue Ω* for which Ωq*(q) = 0 (hence t = Cqq(q)(Q-q) ). Then tax revenue decreases since the tax rate is now too high for the decrease in tax basis to be compensated by rate increase. Figure 2. Tax revenue and tax rate: the Laffer curve t Cqq(q)(Q-q) Ω* Ω (t) 21 Coming back to (14), the inverted U shape of the Laffer curve implies that the abatement level q in equilibrium is higher than in the status quo when the Laffer curve is upward sloping around the status quo. By contrast, q is inferior to the status quo abatement level if the Laffer curve is downward sloping. What is the underlying intuition? In order to answer, one need firstly to show that the greens are the politically powerful actors when A is positive. This can be demonstrated by giving simple comparative statics results about A. Given that GI = 1 and J = 1, we have: A/I = G + (1-I)/(I)2 A/G = -1 -I -G/(G)2 A/G = I > 0 A/I = 2G - I We have A/I > 0 and A/G < 0. A positive coefficient A means that the greens are relatively powerful in comparison with the industrial lobby. This is reinforced by the fact that A/G > 0. The fact that the sign of A/I is ambiguous is of no consequence in this case: A/I = 2G - I implies that A/I only becomes negative when 2G = I. At this level of lobby relative inefficiency of the green lobby, A is always negative and thus any change in I will never be sufficient for A to become positive. We are now ready to explain the intuition behind (14). When A is positive, the political equilibrium thus reflects the interest of the greens. If tax revenue (and hence redistribution to the population) is decreasing in the tax rate t around RS, the greens may find advantageous a reduction in pollution abatement (via a reduction of the tax rate) since this may be compensated by an additional tax revenue partly redistributed to them. If revenue is increasing in the tax rate, it is advantageous for the greens to raise tax rate in two respects: it rises pollution abatement and tax revenue. To summarize, we have: Proposition 2. If regulation enforcement is perfect (R>0), the political equilibrium crucially depends on the sign of A = GI-(1-I)G: 1) If A < 0, the equilibrium policy vector corresponds to the status quo. 22 2) If A > 0, policy change occurs. In particular a non earmarked tax is introduced which substitutes the regulation. More precisely, the policy vector in equilibrium hˆ is given by: ˆt = Cq(q) ˆ = 0 ˆ <q R [1+g2I] Bq(q) = [1+g2G] Cq(q) - Ag2 Ωq(q) The tax rate is thus higher than the regulation shadow price. Moreover when the tax revenue function Ω(q) is upward sloping (that is Ωq(q) = Cqq(q)(Q-q)-Cq(q) is strictly positive, the pollution abatement level is superior to the status quo. If the function is downward sloping, abatement is lower. The room for policy changes thus centrally depends on the coefficient A. In this regard the room seems narrow. In the special case where the two lobbies are equally efficient I = G, A is negative and no tax is introduced. As a consequence the green lobby needs to be much more efficient that the industrialists' lobby to obtain a policy reform to its interest. In the political economy literature it is usually admitted that this cannot be true based on the Olson's argument: the green lobbies would be structurally weaker than industrial pressure groups because the size of individual members' unit stakes is much smaller and because they gather more individual members. In our setting, one can be more explicit about why greens need to be so strong in comparison with the industrialists for their point of view to prevail in the political equilibrium: this is so because the greens benefits only partly from the tax revenue when it is not earmarked (they get a share G) while the industrialists lose much more in that case (they exactly lose a share 1-I). Welfare evaluation of the political equilibrium A final stage of the analysis is to wonder whether the introduction of a non earmarked tax (when A is positive) is increasing the social welfare in comparison with the status quo. 23 In the case where Ωq(q) is positive, the answer is straightforward. When A>0, then G < I. Given (5), (12) and (14), it implies: qˆ > RS > RS* and thus W( qˆ ) < W(RS) < W(RS*) This is a classical argument: the existence of tax revenue to redistribute is an additional motive for rent seeking. It thus rises the political distortions in comparison with a policy approach like a regulation entailing no financial transfer among agents. When the Laffer curve is downward sloping, the result is ambiguous. Simple manipulations of (14) yields: Bq (qˆ ) 1 g 2 ( GI I G ) Ag 2 ˆ C ( q ) Cqq (qˆ )(Q ˆq ) q 1 g 2 I 1 g 2 I As 1+g2(GI +IG) < 1+g2I and as the second term is strictly negative, the comparison with (5) and (12) yields RS > RS* > qˆ As qˆ lies below RS*, the impact on welfare is ambiguous. If qˆ is very close to the optimal level RS*, the introduction is welfare improving since qˆ is much closer to the efficient level that the status quo level RS. But if the Laffer curve is very steep, qˆ can fall very far from the efficient level so that W( qˆ )< W(RS). Intuitively, this ambiguity can be explained in the following way. The greens pursue two objectives: rising revenue and reducing pollution. When the Laffer curve is downward sloping, these objectives are contradictory. If well-balanced, this contradiction can mitigate political distortions so that the introduction of a non earmarked tax is welfare improving. 5. The regulation is imperfectly enforced We now consider that the regulation is poorly enforced. More specifically we assume that R = F - C(R) is strictly negative. Hence, in the absence of tax or subsidy, 24 the polluter’s response is non-compliance. The major consequence is that status quo now entails no pollution abatement even though the status quo regulation RS remains the same. The room for policy change is thus larger than in the previous case. The polluter’s reaction function In the case the regulatory constraint is not binding (that is if t > tR ), the polluter’s response remains the same as in the perfect enforcement case since it is fully determined by the fiscal scheme. But the fact that t < tR alters the picture. When the regulation was perfectly enforced, the polluter abated until R and the fiscal scheme had absolutely no impact on the polluter’s behavior. But we will see that the fiscal scheme may now affect regulatory compliance decision when enforcement is imperfect even when tax rate is inferior to the regulatory shadow cost. This is demonstrated below to be true if and only if tax revenues are earmarked ( = 1). If = 0 Compliance with the regulation depends on the sign of: (t, R, q) = C(q) - C(R) + t (R -q) + F subject to: Cq(q) = t We have a first lemma. Lemma 1. When the tax is not earmarked ( = 0), if t < tR0 , then < 0 Proof. see appendix 3. Lemma 1 establishes that non earmarked tax does not have any impact on regulatory compliance when the tax rate is below the regulation shadow price tR0 . If = 1 Compliance occurs if: (t, R) = (1-s)[C(q) - C(R)] + t (R-q) + F > 0 subject to the earmarking constraint and Cq(q) = t /(1-s). (t, R) = 0 determines a particular value for t denoted tE. This leads to the second useful lemma: 25 Lemma 2. When the tax is earmarked ( = 1), /t is strictly positive. Moreover if t < tR1, then 0 < tE < tR1 Proof. See appendix 3. Lemma 2 is crucial. It establishes that the earmarked tax may promote compliance at tax rate below the regulation shadow price. More specifically, if tE < t < tR1, the polluter complies. Hence q = R. If t < tE, the polluter does not comply and sets his abatement level under the sole influence of the charge and subsidy scheme. We thus have Cq(q )= t /(1-s). In the end, the polluter’s behavior is depicted in the figure 2. and summarized by proposition 3. In the following, we note q = q* 0 (t, , R) the corresponding reaction function. Proposition 3. When the regulation is imperfectly enforced, the polluter sets its level of pollution abatement q as follows: If the tax is not earmarked ( = 0), Cq(q) = t. That is the abatement level is only determined by the tax. The regulation plays no role. If the tax is earmarked ( = 1), the polluter's reaction function becomes discontinuous. More specifically: When t [tE, tR1], the environmental outcome is only determined by the tax and subsidy scheme and the environmental outcome is given by the polluter’s reaction function qf(t, ). The regulation has thus no impact on the polluter. When t [tE, tR1], the regulatory constraint is binding and t is sufficiently high so that >0. The polluter’s best response is to comply with the regulation and the environmental outcome is R. In this intermediate interval, the charge and subsidy scheme thus has a role of enforcement incentive in that it leads to regulatory compliance. 26 Figure 3: The polluter’s response to the policy mix when enforcement is imperfect Pollution abatement =1 =0 R t R R t 1 t R t 0 Characterization of the political equilibrium As usual, both candidates converge to announce a policy vector which is the solution of the optimization problem: Max U(h) = Max H° + [+(g)2I] B(q) – [+(g)2G] C(q) + (1-)(g)2A Ω(q, t) subject to q = q* 0 (h) s C(q) = t(Q-q) U(h) > 0 (15) In comparison with the perfect enforcement case, the sole differences lie in the status quo constraint and in the polluter's reaction function. Again we start by solving separately two optimization problems for each value of . Then, we will compare the 27 two solutions in order to identify the equilibrium which brings the highest political support. If = 0 The solution is straightforward since the problem becomes: subject to Max H° + [+(g)2I] B(q) – [+(g)2G] C(q)] + (g)2A (q, t) Cq(q) = t U(h) > 0 The condition for an interior maximum is thus identical to (14): [1+g2I] Bq(q) = [1+g2G] Cq(q) - g2A q(q) (15) If = 1 The maximization problem is: H° + [+(g)2I] B(q) – [+(g)2G] C(q) subject to q = q* 0 (h) s C(q) = t(Q-q) U(h) > 0 As only the variable q enters in the political support function, the earmarking constraint is not binding and the solution is given by: [1+g2I] Bq(q) = [1+g2G] Cq(q) (16) (16) is identical to the condition defining the status quo regulation (12) ; hence q = R S and tE < t < tR1. 28 A view on (15), (16), and the considerations already developed to demonstrate proposition 2. then yields the following proposition which is together with proposition 2. the central result of the paper: Proposition 4. 1) If A < 0, the equilibrium policy vector h˜ is an earmarked tax which complements the regulation. More specifically h˜ is given by: tE < ˜t < tR1 ˜ = 1 R˜ = RS In this case, the tax rate is thus lower than the regulation shadow price. 2) If A > 0, the equilibrium policy vector h˜ is a non-earmarked tax combined with a regulation given by: ˜t = Cq( q˜ ) ˜ = 0 R˜ < q˜ [1+g2I] Bq( q˜ ) = [1+g2G] Cq( q˜ ) - g2A q( q˜ ) In this latter case, the abatement level will be higher (lower) than the status quo level RS if the Laffer curve is upward (downward) sloping. The tax rate is higher than the regulation shadow price. Proposition 4. and proposition 2. (the perfect enforcement case) only differs when A is negative. In this case (when the green lobby is not very powerful), the analysis predicts the generic form of environmental tax encountered in reality, that is an earmarked tax combined with the regulation and which tax rate remains below the shadow price of the regulation. This leads the policy mix to the pollution abatement level that will be obtained under a fully enforced regulation. The intuition is that when 29 enforcement is imperfect, the greens are in favor of a non earmarked tax since it permits to improve regulatory compliance and thus abatement level. Nevertheless, since A is negative, they are not sufficiently strong to push abatement above the status quo regulation. As a result, the tax rate remains below the regulation shadow price. In the previous section, looking carefully at coefficient A, we have argued intuitively how small was the room for the introduction of a non earmarked tax. Conversely, the same reasoning applies here to claim that the room for the introduction of an earmarked is very large. In particular, a non earmarked tax is introduced when the two lobbies are equally powerful (G = I ). Welfare evaluation of the political equilibrium We need only to consider the case where A<0 since the other case has already been analyzed in the previous section. Does the introduction of an earmarked tax improve welfare in comparison with the status quo? As in the status quo, q = 0, the answer is immediately positive. 6. Discussion of the results To summarize, the model predicts three possible policy outcomes: The introduction of a non-earmarked tax in combination with a regulation at a tax rate above the regulation shadow price This happens when coefficient A = GI-(1-I)G is positive. This coefficient basically reflects the relative green lobby's strength in comparison with the industrial lobby: I and G are the share in the whole population of pro-industrial and green voters, respectively whereas I and G reflects the ability of the industrial and green lobbies to collect campaign contributions. The intuition of the result is the following. When A is positive, the greens are politically very influential and are able to foster their first best policy option: a non earmarked tax. The greens benefit from non earmarking since they get a share of the tax revenues redistributed to the whole population. 30 The benefit in terms of redistribution of tax revenues also explain why tax rate is above the regulation shadow price: it allows for maximizing tax revenue for a given level of pollution abatement. The status quo, that is no tax is introduced This happens when the status quo regulation is perfectly enforcement and when A is negative (that is the relative green lobby's strength in comparison with the industrial lobby is below a certain threshold). The threshold is quite high. For instance, in the particular case where the two lobbies face identical contribution cost functions (I = G), A is negative whatever the share of green and pro-industrial voters in the population. In this case, the greens are simply not sufficiently influential to impose the industrialists a non earmarked tax, also because the status quo position is relatively satisfying for the greens: the enforcement being perfect, the polluter abates at the level of the status quo emission standard The introduction of an earmarked tax in combination with the status quo regulation at a tax rate below the regulation shadow price This happens when the greens are not very influential (A is negative) and when the status quo regulation is imperfectly enforced, so that the status quo abatement level is zero. In this configuration, the loss for the greens in the status quo position is sufficiently large (no pollution abatement) to compensate their relative weakness vis-àvis the pro-industrialists. They are thus able to obtain a policy change. Why then an earmarked tax? This design presents an advantage for both sides. In the industrialist view, earmarking obviously implies that the polluter gets back his tax payment in the form of cost subsidy. The gain for the greens is more subtle: cost subsidies financed by the tax allow for reducing the cost of compliance with the status quo regulation. Earmarking thus helps to rise the incentive for the polluter to comply with the regulation and subsequently leads to additional pollution abatement. This peculiar impact of the tax on regulatory compliance exists even when the tax rate is below the regulation shadow price. To sum up, a tax is simply introduced to promote compliance with the status quo regulation. These predictions seem in line with what is observed in reality. In actual environmental policies, the status quo prevails (the use of regulation). Furthermore, 31 when taxes are introduced, we have already mentioned that earmarking prevails and that tax rates are generally below the incentive level, that is the regulation shadow price. Our analysis suggests that this is explained by the willingness to promote compliance with existing regulation. Another factual evidence supporting our analysis is the particular case of taxes envisaged to cope with energy efficiency and GHG emissions in the frame of climate change policies. It is well-known that, in this realm, taxes face severe political difficulties which frequently prevent their introduction. But one apparent paradox is that when the political forces allows for their introduction (like in Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium or many Scandinavian countries), this is a non earmarked design which is selected . Why the less politically damaging earmarking option is not chosen? Our analysis suggests one explanation. In the case of GHG emissions and energy efficiency, there is no regulation in force. We are thus in a situation where there is no necessity of promoting regulatory compliance. To conclude, it worth mentioning that a non earmarked tax at a rate above the regulation is the more efficient policy solution among the three possible political outcomes according to the "normative" environmental economics point of view. This solution avoids the drawbacks frequently attached to earmarking (lack of flexibility, the risk for competition distortion on international markets, etc.). It leads the tax to determine the abatement level across polluters with all the advantages attached in terms of incentives to innovate and pollution abatement cost savings. Finally, it confines regulation in a role of "safety net" ensuring everywhere a minimal level of pollution abatement which can be very useful to avoid "hot spots", that is accumulation of pollution in certain locations. Our analysis is rather pessimistic as regards the possibility to implement this efficient solution. 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OECD (1995) Ecotaxes in OECD Countries, Paris, OECD 33 Appendix 1 We will show that Cq (q) = t /(1-s) (A.1) s C(q) = t(Q-q) (A.2) implies that q is strictly increasing in t. It is straightforward if = 0. It implies that Cq(q) = t and thus that t/q > 0 since Cq>0. When = 1, combining (A.1) and (A.2) yields t Hence Cq (q)C(q) C(q) (Q q)Cq (q) if C(q) + (Q - q)Cq(q) 0, 2 2 2 2 t C(q) C' (q) (Q q).C(q)Cq (q) Cqq (q)C(q) ? ?2 q C(q) (Q q)Cq (q) (A.3) (A.4) that is strictly positive because Q>q, and that C, Cq and Cqq are strictly positive for any q. If C(q) + (Q - q)Cq(q) = 0, q is necessarily equal to 0. Appendix 2 The problem is to study the marginal properties of (q, t) = t (Q-q) with q = q* 0 (t, R). The analytical problem lies in the fact that q* 0 is kinked in q = R. In order to solve it, one can separately treat the two cases q > R and q < R. If q > R, then t = Cq(q). The tax revenue function can thus be written (q, t) = Cq(q)(Q-q) and (q, t)/q = Cqq(q)(Q-q) – Cq(q). Depending on how much “convex” is the cost function, /q will be either positive or negative. This is the classical story depicted by the Laffer curve. But it is clear that if /q (RS) 0, deviating upward or downward from RS is increasing political support. The equilibrium thus involves a policy vector hˆ given by: 34 ˆ = 0 ˆt = Cq(q) [+(g)2/G] Bq(q) = [+(g)2/I] Cq(q) + A(g)2 Ωq(q) ˆ<q R The latter condition yields an infinity of equilibrium because. However a very simple ˆ = 0. As the regulation plays no role in the refinement of the equilibrium suggest that R ˆ = 0, q and ˆt remain unchanged, the regulation is useless. Assuming nonsense if R zero administrative costs, it is worthwhile not to keep the regulation in place. Thus ˆ = 0. R If q = R, then t < tR0 . The partial derivative of with respect to t is /t = Q - R which is strictly positive; hence the tax rate maximising revenue is given by the corner solution t = tR0 . It follows that (q, t) can be rewritten (q, t) = Cq(q)(Q-q) as q = R. It is the same function as in the first case. It thus leads to the same equilibrium. Appendix 3 Proof of lemma 1. It is easy to show that t (t, R)<0. Indeed, we have (t, R) = C(q*)-C(R) + Cq(q*)[Rq*] + F. The partial derivative of this expression with respect to q* is q*(q*, R)/q* = -q*Cqq(q*) which is strictly negative. This implies that t(t, R) <0 since q* strictly increases in t. When t = 0, (t, R) = F – C(R) which is strictly negative by assumption. It follows that (t, R) > 0, t > 0 and R > 0 Proof of lemma 2 We have subject to and (t, R) = (1-s)[C(q*)-C(R)] + t(R-q*) + F s C(q) = t(Q-q) q = q* 0 (t, 1, R) When t = tR1, R = q*(t) and hence = F>0. Moreover, when t = 0, s = 0 and = FC(R) which is strictly negative. Moreover, t is strictly positive. In effect, plugging (1) in yields (t, R) = C(q*) - C(R) + F which is strictly increasing in t. Hence 0 < tE < tR1.
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