Triple bottom line impacts of
community energy initiatives
Crossing disciplinary boundaries with
Bayesian Networks
Philip A Leicester BSc DIS
School of Civil and Building Engineering
Centre for Renewable Energy and Systems Technology
Loughborough University
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Presentation Objectives
• Introduce the research project.
• Describe the utility of Bayesian Networks as a
methodology for this problem domain.
• Demonstrate the adoption of Solar PV and
impact on fuel poverty as a case study.
• Highlight the future potential of the
methodology
• Solicit feedback from domain experts!
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Research Aim:
To develop and validate a
methodology for the evaluation of the
triple bottom line impacts of
community energy initiatives.
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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• Problems are wicked
• Parameters are characterised by
uncertainty
• All models are wrong
• Quants and quals
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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While fuel prices and low
incomes are constituent factors,
the real cause of fuel poverty is
the energy inefficiency of the
home .
B. Boardman 2012
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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....I find myself referring to reports published by CSE going back
several years which presented findings that are extremely
pertinent to the debates we are having now.
So one, some or all of the following must apply:
CSE is failing to communicate the things we’ve discovered;
‘the system’ (DECC, Ofgem, BIS, DoH and their former
incarnations) isn’t listening to us;
‘the system’ is unable to assimilate evidence and
analysis
Ian Preston, “Fuel Poverty – reasons for being
Seriously unimpressed.” CSE 14 November 2012.
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Judae Pearl 1936
Thomas Bayes 1701-1761
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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PAY STATEMENT
With Grateful thanks to Ben Anderson, CRESEI, Essex University
B. Anderson, “ESTIMATING SMALL AREA INCOME DEPRIVATION : AN ITERATIVE PROPORTIONAL FITTING APPROACH.” 2011.
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
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Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
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Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Can solar PV help alleviate fuel
poverty?
Walker, G., 2008. Decentralised systems and fuel poverty: Are there
any links or risks? Energy Policy 36, 4514-4517.
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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YES 21.6%
YES 17.5%
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Conclusion
•Bayesian Networks can propagate probabilistic causal relations and
facilitate prognostic and diagnostic inference.
•Can combine expert opinion (subjective probability) with quantitative
(frequentist probability) from multiple knowledge domains.
•Explicate a complex problem with intuitive causal map and systems
thinking
•Facilitate decision making under uncertainty
But...
•Require rich data and conditional probabilities . . . we need to share data!
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Thanks for listening
END
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Questions / Feedback
More information
Contact
[email protected]
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
Friday 16th November 2012
Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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Leicester et al 2011
Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposium
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Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield
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