Florida Department of
TRANSPORTATION
SR 417 Extension
Sketch-Level Traffic & Revenue Evaluation
August 26, 2015
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Sketch-Level T&R Evaluation
• Update to 2003 Study
• Higher-Level, Conceptual Effort Using Existing Data
and Inputs
• Evaluate Key Inputs
– What Has Changed Over Past 12 Years?
– Impact on Traffic?
– Impact on Revenue?
• Identify New Alternatives for Consideration
• Update Project Costs
• Reassess Revenue/Cost Differential
Florida Department of Transportation
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Project Overview
• Extension of SR 417 in Seminole County to I-95
in Southeast Volusia County
• New, Four-Lane, Limited-Access Toll Facility
• Approximately 30 Miles Long
• Alternative for Trips from Volusia to Orlando
• Includes New St. Johns River Crossing
• Crosses Environmentally Sensitive Areas
Florida Department of Transportation
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Study Area
Florida Department of Transportation
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Corridor Alternative 1
Florida Department of Transportation
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Corridor Alternative 2
Florida Department of Transportation
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Corridor Alternative 3
Florida Department of Transportation
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2003 T&R Study Results
Florida Department of Transportation
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2003 T&R Study Results
2003 T&R Study Conclusion: Project shortfall of $620
to $780 million
Florida Department of Transportation
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Sketch-Level T&R Update
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population Data
Network
Access Locations
Developments within Study Area
New Opening Year (2025)
Updated Project Costs
Florida Department of Transportation
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Population Data - Comparison
County
2003 BEBR Medium
Population Estimate
2015 BEBR (PS 171)
Medium Population
Estimate
% Change in Population
Estimate
2010
2030
2010*
2030
2010
2030
Volusia
515,100
645,200
494,593
563,900
-4.0%
-12.6%
Brevard
551,300
685,800
543,376
631,100
-1.4%
-8.0%
Seminole
450,300
598,700
422,718
522,300
-6.1%
-12.8%
Total
1,518,710
1,931,730
1,462,697
1,719,330
-3.7%
-11.0%
*2010 Census Population
Florida Department of Transportation
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Network
•
•
•
•
•
SR 415
SR 44
I-4
I – 95
Lake Mary Blvd
2-Lanes
4-Lanes
Florida Department of Transportation
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Network - SR 415 Historical Traffic
SR 415 Historical Average Corridor Traffic
Between SR 46 and SR 44
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
AADT
12,000
YEAR
Florida Department of Transportation
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Access Locations
2003 Study Access
I-95
Maytown Rd
Additional Access
I-95
Maytown Rd
SR 46
SR 46
Lake Mary Blvd /
International Airport
Lake Mary Blvd /
International Airport
SR 417
SR 417
New Access
Florida Department of Transportation
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Developments within the Study Area
Restoration DRI
•
•
RESTORATION
FARMTON
•
Farmton MDRI
•
•
Access Locations
Florida Department of Transportation
8,500 Residential Units
– 3,825 SF Units
– 4,675 MF Units
3,300,000 Non-Residential Square footage
– 1,904,442 sq ft. Office
– 1,395,557 sq ft. Retail
74% of total land area (3,872 ac.) planned for
conservation
23,100 Residential Units
– 2017-2025: 4,692 Units
– 2026-2060: 18,408 Units
4,700,000 Non-Residential Square footage
– 2017-2025: 820,217 sq. ft.
– 2026-2060: 4,700,000 sq. ft.
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Base Case
• Same Toll Rate
• Same Access Points
• Updated Land Use and Model
Network
Alternatives
• 2025 Opening vs. 2010
Opening Year
• Indexed Toll Rates vs. Toll
Increases Every 10 Years
Net Present Value
(NPV) in $Millions
2003 T&R Study
$196 M
2015 Sketch-Level T&R Evaluation
$260 M
Change From 2003 Study
+$64 M (+32%)
Florida Department of Transportation
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2015 Study Build Alternatives
Alternatives
(Higher Toll Rate)
Net Present
Change from
Value (NPV) in
2003 NPV
$Millions
$196 M
Same Access Locations as
2003 Study
$364 M
+ 85%
Additional Access Locations
At SR 46 and Lake Mary
Blvd
$402 M
+ 105 %
Higher Land Use Related to
Restoration and Farmton
$497 M
+ 153 %
Florida Department of Transportation
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Updated Project Costs
Corridor
2003 Project 2015 Project
Cost
Cost*
Change in
Cost
Corridor 1
$887 M
$1.5 B
+ 69%
Corridor 2
$851 M
$1.4 B
+ 65%
Corridor 3
$824 M
$1.3 B
+ 58%
*Project unit costs were updated, however, ROW and mitigation costs were not updated in this effort. Additional costs
related with the addition of new access points was not included in the cost estimates.
Florida Department of Transportation
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Revenue/Cost Differential
Alternatives
NPV
Cost*
in Millions
Difference
Base Case
$260
$1,300
-$1,040
Higher Toll Rate - 2003 Access
$364
$1,300
-$936
Higher Toll Rate - Additional Access
$402
$1,300
-$898
Higher Toll Rate - Higher Land Use
$497
$1,300
-$803
*Costs shown for Corridor #3 and do not include updates to ROW and Mitigation, or the cost for the additional access points.
Florida Department of Transportation
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Conclusion
• Project Assumptions Evaluated and Updated
• Additional Alternatives with a Higher Toll Rate
 Additional Access
 Higher Land Use from Developments
• Updated Project Costs
 R/W and Mitigation Costs Still Need to be Updated
• Project Still Has Significant Shortfall ($803 M to
$936 M)
Florida Department of Transportation
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Conclusion
QUESTIONS?
Florida Department of Transportation
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