A Competition Economist’s Perspective on Regulation South African Economic Regulators Conference 2012 Richard Murgatroyd [email protected] 18 September, 2012 Overview 1. Economic justifications for intervention 2. Economic costs arising from regulation 3. Scope of regulation 4. Nature of regulation 2 Economic Justifications Market failure Traditional economic justification for regulatory intervention is market failure (although also other public policy motives – e.g. redistribution) – Inefficient allocation of resources when left up to market forces Sources of market failure – Persistent market power – firms raise prices significantly above ‘competitive’ levels – Externality benefits or costs of producing a good/service – lead to under- or overproduction as these are not internalised by the firm producing that good/service – Incomplete or asymmetric information – e.g. inability of consumers to identify product quality ex ante leads to lower average quality 3 Economic Justifications Natural monopoly In essence a natural monopoly is where a single firm can serve the market at a lower cost than multiple firms Common examples of natural monopolies are utility networks (or certain aspects of these networks) - e.g. railways, pipelines, electricity/water distribution In such instances it will be inefficient for multiple entrants to incur significant fixed/sunk costs in replicating (certain aspects of) distribution infrastructure – Hence possible motivation to regulate entry However, monopolies (natural or otherwise) may also exercise market power – Hence possible motivation for regulation in order to keep prices low and reduce socalled ‘deadweight loss’ 4 Economic Justifications No deadweight loss Consumer welfare Cost Pc Demand Qc Under perfect competition price equals cost, with output (Qc) and economic welfare (green area) maximised – all going to consumers 5 Economic Justifications Deadweight loss Kept by consumers Transferred to monopoly Lost altogether Pm Cost Pc Demand MR Qm Qc Under monopoly, price is above cost, with lower output (Qm) and higher prices (Pm) than under perfect competition Economic welfare reduced (orange area), welfare also transferred from consumers to the monopoly (blue area) 6 Economic Costs Direct costs Determining optimal regulated price can be highly information intensive and information may be costly for the regulator to obtain and analyse (and indeed costly for the firm(s) in question to provide) Information asymmetries may exacerbate costs if they create incentives for firms to engage in inaccurate reporting – e.g. over-inflating cost base where regulated prices depend on costs Deadweight loss must be larger than direct costs of regulation for regulation to have a positive impact on total welfare (although not necessarily if we focus on a consumer welfare standard) 7 Economic Costs Indirect costs (1) Potentially severe adverse effects from inaccurate identification of the ‘competitive’ price level If prices are too high consumers lose out – most obviously has the potential to be problematic in markets where there are a number of potentially competing suppliers and where competition might drive prices down even further in the long run If prices are too low the regulated firm might not be able to make a profit If prices are too low there will be excess demand, requiring non-price rationing of goods/services and providing the potential for intermediaries to benefit rather than consumers 8 Economic Costs Indirect costs (2) Regulation can mask important market signals because price can no longer perform its signalling function – E.g. high prices and profits arising from insufficient productive capacity signal that there are profits to be made from investing in further capacity – Absent price signalling capacity investments that would benefit consumers by forcing down prices will not be made Regulation can distort firm’s incentives to behave in ways that benefit consumers in the long run – Regulated prices reduce firm’s incentives to innovate – Rate of return regulation reduces incentives to lower costs of production and can potentially encourage inefficient entry/expansion 9 Scope of Regulation Only regulate where necessary If natural monopolies face competition from substitutes then case for regulation is significantly weakened Nature of competition may militate against substantial deadweight loss – e.g. if firms can price discriminate (although will not address distributional issues) Industries are often characterised by natural monopoly at particular levels only – blanket industry regulation may be neither necessary nor desirable 10 Nature of Regulation Minimise intrusion to obtain a given outcome Factors that give rise to market failures are often structural – structural remedies, where possible, avoid the need for (and cost of) ongoing regulation E.g. if prices are high because productive capacity is insufficient to meet demand – Price regulation will mask pricing signals and discourage entry so that fundamental problem is not resolved – By contrast, steps to encourage capacity expansion, such as removing artificial barriers to entry, may remove the need for ongoing price regulation Less intrusive forms of regulation than price regulation can provide less of a downside while still obtaining desired outcomes – E.g. mandating access to essential facilities 11 Locations and contact London Brussels The Connection 198 High Holborn London WC1V 7BD Telephone +44 20 7421 2410 Email: [email protected] Bastion Tower Place du Champ de Mars 5 B–1050 Brussels Telephone: +32 2 792 0000 Email: [email protected] The Hague Melbourne Lange Houtstraat 37-39 2511 CV Den Haag The Netherlands Telephone: +31 70 302 3060 Email: [email protected] Rialto South Tower, Level 27 525 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Telephone: +61 3 9935 2800 Email: [email protected] Johannesburg Augusta House, Inanda Greens 54 Wierda Road West Sandton, 2196, Johannesburg Telephone: +27 11 783 1949 Email: [email protected] 12
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