MINISTRY FOR EDUCATION AND SCIENCE, RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Federal State Autonomous Organization of Higher Education
«Novosibirsk National Research State University»
Faculty of Economics
Сhair of Political Economy
MASTER THESIS
Bykov Mikhail Aleksandrovich
DEPOSITS FAMILIARIZATION PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS
IN TERMS OF THE SELECTED DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Supervisor:
D-r of econ. Sciences, Professor
Filimonova I. V
Chief of Poiltlical Economics chair
Filimonova I. V
D-r of econ. Sciences, Professor
2017
CONTENT
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Chapter 1. The current state of the oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and the Far East and
the direction of development of the territory................................................................................... 4
1.1. The current state of the oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and Far East.....................4
1.2. Problems of development of oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and the Far East ....17
1.3. Perspective directions of development of oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and the
Far East ......................................................................................................................................18
Chapter 2. Improving of methodological approaches to assessment economic efficiency of
development of hydrocarbon resources ......................................................................................... 22
2.1. Analysis of methodological approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of investment
projects ......................................................................................................................................22
2.1.1. Overview of Russian methodological approaches.......................................................22
2.1.2. Foreign experience ......................................................................................................26
2.2. Improvement of the methodical approach to the economic evaluation of hydrocarbon
resources ....................................................................................................................................28
2.2.1. Directions of improvement of economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources ..........28
2.2.2. Algorithm economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources .............................................
...............................................................................................................................................31
Chapter 3. Analysis of the economic efficiency of development of hydrocarbon resources in East
Siberia ............................................................................................................................................ 36
3.1. General characteristics of the research object (Nemchuysk license area in the Irkutsk
Region) ......................................................................................................................................36
3.2. Feasibility study of the development of Nemchuysk license portion in Irkutsk ................40
3.2.1 Capital expenditures .....................................................................................................40
3.2.2 Operating costs .............................................................................................................50
3.2.3 Taxes.............................................................................................................................53
3.3. Economic evaluation of the effectiveness of development Nemchuysk license area of
Irkutsk region .............................................................................................................................57
3.4. Sensitivity analysis evaluation of the efficiency of development Nemchuysk license area
of Irkutsk region of macro factors .............................................................................................62
3.5. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on oil prices in the world market options .....................66
conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 69
Bibliography .................................................................................................................................. 71
2
INTRODUCTION
Eastern Siberia and the Far East a promising region for hydrocarbon production due to the
presence of huge energy resources, as well as proximity to the region's promising energy markets
of the Asia-Pacific region.
Currently, oil production in Russia reached the peak, so in December 2013 daily oil
production amounted to 1451.3 thous. Tons, the highest production in the history of the country's
oil industry, but in the future there is a slowdown in oil production growth.
Eastern Siberia and the Far East - a region that provides the main increase in oil production
in Russia at the moment, that contributes to the sustainable maintenance of current high levels of
production in the country. Therefore, in the medium and long term stabilization and growth of oil
production in the country is dependent on the rate of growth of reserves and production in the
east of the country. This requires involvement in the development of not yet identified resources,
their training (geological survey), followed by commissioning. To be involved in the
development of insufficient geological preconditions, necessary to assess the economic
attractiveness and usefulness of involving stocks in the development, ie relate the benefits and
costs to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the resource potential development
projects.
Aim of work - carry out an economic assessment of the efficiency of resource
development in Eastern Siberia by the example of hydrocarbons Nenchyusk license area in the
Irkutsk Region
In accordance with the purpose of the following problems were solved:
1. A forecast of oil production in Nenchyusk license area in the Irkutsk Region.
2. We estimate the volume of capital investments and operating costs in the development
of Nenchyusk license area in the Irkutsk Region, as well as an assessment of the tax
burden under the current tax system.
3. The sensitivity analysis of development Nenchyusk license area in the Irkutsk Region
4. Cost-effectiveness analysis carried out depending on the price of oil on the world
market option.
Scientific novelty:
1. Improvement of a methodical approach taking in account macroeconomic conditions (tax
system and USD exchange rate)
2. Justification of oil price range with which a project stays economic effective, providing
current tax system and oil price dynamics.
3
CHAPTER 1. Current status of oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and the Far
East and the direction of development of the territory
1.1.
The current state of the oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and Far East
One of the fastest growing centers of the oil and gas industry in Russia is oil and gas
complex of Eastern Siberia and the Far East (Fig. 1.1). This region is geographically close to the
Asia-Pacific region. Conducted a major development of oil and gas on the open fields, areas
prepared for the licensing and promising oil and gas region of the bowels. Realized the
construction of gas supply systems and the pipeline system. All this allows you to create large
industrial centers in eastern Russia.
Fig. 1.1. Increase in oil production (in thousand. T the previous year)
Source: (InfoTEK. Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2000-2014)
Oil. Construction and commissioning of ESPO and spetsmornefteporta Kozmino,
supplying and connecting pipelines - "Vankor - Pur-Pe" and "Pur-Pe - Samotlor",
"Verkhnechonskoe - Talakanskoye - VSTO", as well as oil pipelines "North Sakhalin - De
Castries ',' North Sakhalin - Sakhalin South "gave rise to a powerful development of hydrocarbon
production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. This made it possible to increase oil production in
the east with Russia6.9 million tons in 2006 to 58.4 million tons in 2014, including in Eastern
4
Siberia and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) - 44.2 million tons, in the Far East - 14.3 million
tons (Figure . 1.2).
A significant proportion of oil in Eastern Siberia and Sakha (Iakutiia) making Vankorskoye
(53%), Verhnechenskoe (19%) fields developed by "RosNeft" and Talakan (18%) developed by
"SURGUTNEFTEGAS". A significant increase in liquids production provided Krasnoyarsk
region. Here, the "Rosneft" raised the volume of oil production from the beginning of
commercial production in 2009 from the level of 3.6 million tonnes to22 million tons in 2014. at
the Vankor field. In 2014, the project was planned to reach production level25 million tons of oil
per year, but now with a view to extend the stable production period, it was decided to postpone
the achievement of project level to 2019 is therefore calculated to maintain oil production at 22
million tons.
Fig. 1.2. Oil production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
58,4 60,8
60
54,5
49,3
50
oil extraction, mln. т
42,6
40
34,5
30
22,8
20
12,8
14,3
6,9
10
3,9 4,3 3,8 3,7 4,1 4,7
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: InfoTEK. Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2000-2014.
In Irkutsk area of the main oil is Verhnechenskoe field. Oil production in 2011 has
doubled, and in 2014 was 8.2 million tonnes, which is more than 68% of the total oil production
in the Irkutsk region, which is expected to support up to 2020. Regarding 2013 production at
Verhnechenskom
field has been increased to 0.5 million tons in 2014 - is due to the construction and
reconstruction of important objects, resulting in increased performance for oil treatment plants
by 25%.
5
In the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) oil on Talakanskoye field in 2014 reached the level of
7.7 million tonnes (88% of the country production). At the expense of belonging to the company
"Surgutneftegaz" Talakansky, Alin, North-East and Talakansky Alin fields total oil production
could exceed 8 million tons by 2015 in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
The increase in oil production in Eastern Siberia and Sakha Republic (Yakutia) depended
on the connection part of the field of independent oil companies to the ESPO pipeline system.
For example, in 2010 Yarakta field "Irkutsk Oil Company" has been connected to the pipeline.
As a result of this oil was 3.9 million tons in 2014 (growth of the previous year - 40%). This is
due to the growth of wells and the introduction of hydraulic fracturing technologies. "Irkutsk Oil
Company" plans to increase oil production to 6 million tons in 2015. In Dulisma resulting from
the use of infrastructure "Irkutsk Oil Company" to connect to the ESPO liquids production in
2012 has doubled, and by 2014 was 929 ths. tons.
Commissioning of "Sakhalin-1" project offshore. Sakhalin in 2004-2005. and output at
2009 constant oil project "Sakhalin-2" was resulting in increased liquid hydrocarbon recovery in
the Far East. After the fall of oil in the 2009-2010's. Far on shelves seas renewed increase of oil
production for the project "Sakhalin-1", but in 2012 g. decline in oil production amounted to 7.9
million tons in 2011 BC 7.1 million tons in 2012 and till 7 million tonnes in 2013. in the project
"Sakhalin-1" was put into operation field A-D at the beginning of 2015
project field "Sakhalin-2", as well as in continental deposits, which are being developed in
"Rosneft-SMNG" there is a tendency to a decrease in oil production. In 2010, the volume of oil
was 6 million tons and in 2014 was down to 5.3 million tons.
Within the Eastern Siberia and the Far East are important producers of oil company
"Vankorneft" and "Verkhnechonskneftegaz" control which is carried out "Rosneft" and
"Lenaneftegaz" controlled "Surgutneftegaz".
"Rosneft" company increased its stake in the current oil production in 2012-2013. in
eastern Russia. "Rosneft" has teamed up with "TAAs-Yuryakh Oil and Gas", which owns the
license to develop Srednebotuobinskoye deposit in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Mine TAAs
Yuriakh was put into development in 2013, which made it possible to increase oil production to
20 thousand. Tons in 2012 to 229 thousand. T in 2013
The assets of JSC "Irelyakhneft" exploiting Irelyakh deposit and OAO "ALROSA-Gaz",
exploiting Srednebotuobinskoye condensate field bought "Rosneft". The company also receives
a share in the development Verhnechenskogo deposit in the Irkutsk region and the Vankor group
of fields in the Krasnoyarsk Territory Sevres (Suzunskoe, Tagulskoe and Russian) as a result of
the integration of "Rosneft" and "TNK-BP" in 2013, as well as the Bratsk gas condensate field in
the Irkutsk area after the purchase "Itera".
6
More than 70% of oil production belongs to "Rosneft" in East Siberia, 20% in the Far East
and 58% in the region.
Gas production. A significant factor limiting the development of the gas industry in
Eastern Siberia and the Far East, is the lack of infrastructure for transportation, processing and
use of gas. The level of recovery of gas in eastern Russia in 2013 amounted to 46.6 billion cubic
meters. m (at Sakhalin had 28.3 billion cubic meters in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic
of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Irkutsk Region -. 18.4 billion cubic meters.) (Figure 1.3.).
Exported and supplied to domestic market most of the gas produced - it is 18.2 billion
cubic meters. m, wherein pumped back into the reservoir and is flared 10 bcm. m (about 22%) of
the produced gas in the East Russia [27].
"Sakhalin-2" project (within which operates the Trans-Gas Pipeline, plant and LNG
terminal) takes a leading role in terms of recoverable gas on a commercial basis within the
shelves of the Far East seas - about 17.6 billion cubic meters. m. Exports to Asia-Pacific,
preferably more than 14.6 billion was transferred to Japan and South Korea cube. meters of
natural gas in 2014. On the domestic market -Vladivostokskaya CHPP-1 and CHP-2, TC "North"
and South Sakhalin TPP-1 and others.It delivered more than 3 billion cubic meters. meters of gas
per year.
Since it is not resolved the problem of natural gas from fields in the project "Sakhalin-1",
so more than 10 billion cubic meters. m gas is pumped back into the reservoir. On
oil and gas field A-D from the beginning of 2015 carried out operation, which led to an increase
in gas production. In the near future provide the basis for the production plant of "Rosneft" in the
Far East LNG feedstock will be the gas project "Sakhalin-1", including field
North-Chayvo and North Veninskaya.
Produced natural gas to onshore fields of Sakhalin misses consumers Komsomolsk-onAmur and Khabarovsk.
7
50
44,4
46,6 46,2
41,3
Gas Extraction, mln.tonnes
40
37,2
33,7
30
25,5
20
14,5
12,6
10
8,0 8,1 7,8
7,4 7,3 7,5 7,5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fig. 1.3. Gas production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
A source: InfoTEK. Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2000-2014 gg.
In Eastern Siberia and the Far East, the gas is mainly used for local industrial, energy and
household needs. It was the development of local energy systems and the possibility of supply of
raw materials to the neighboring regions.
An important part of the gas deposits of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) are concentrated
in the central region. These deposits (Srednevilyuiskoye, Mastahskoe, Srednetyungskoye etc.)
create local gas supply system that supplies gas to local energy, industrial and municipal
requirements [13].
"Gazprom mining Irkutsk" has become the largest gas condensate Kovykta field in the
Irkutsk region in 2011. The field is prepared for industrial gas production (gas production
currently amounts to 80 million cubic meters. M per year). Industrial gas production delayed
until the beginning of the 2020-2025 biennium. Since the field high concentration of ethane,
propane, butane, and helium gas and no processing and transport infrastructure.
On chayanda field runs up exploration of complex measures. In 2017 it is planned to start
production and supply of oil and gas production is planned to start in 2018.
Since the volume of oil and gas in new fields increases, there is a problem processing APG
(APG). of crude oil production in the absence of developed transmission infrastructure is
8
pumped back into the reservoir and is flared annually about 8 bcm. m of associated gas. From
2013-2014,. began to form conditions for effective APG. Just "Irkutsk Oil Company" - plans to
begin construction of the gas processing plant. On Vankor problem with recycling APG solved
by supplying gas to a single gas supply system (ESC) through the infrastructure "Lukoil"
pipeline "Vanqor - Khalmerpayutinskoye field".
Refining industry
Four major oil refineries (refinery) in the territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East,
which implement the processing of crude oil (Achinsk, Angarsk and Komsomolsk refinery
(under the "Rosneft" control) and Khabarovsk refinery (controlled by the "Alliance"), as well as
mini-refineries company "Petros" in Sakhalin).
The total capacity of refineries in Eastern Siberia and the Far East for raw materials has
reached 30 million tons in 2014, the primary processing - 29.1 million tons of oil (Figure 1.4.).
Of these Achinskogo refinery capacity was 7.5 million tons per year, the level of loading - 99%
Angarsky - 10.2 million tons per year and the load level - 99%. Komsomolsk refinery capacity of
8 million tons of oil per year, and its loading was 89% in 2013. Power Khabarovsk refinery
amounted to 4.9 million tons per year in 2013, an increase compared with 2012 by 10% due to
the implementation of the modernization program, the processing in 2013 amounted to only 4.4
million tons loading 88% capacity. Power mini-refineries "Petros" in Sakhalin is about 200
thousand tons per year, processing -.. 65 tons..
About 90% of the raw material is transported from Western Siberia to refineries in Eastern
Siberia and the Far East. Approximately 1.4 million tons of oil per year via the pipeline "OkhaKomsomolsk-on-Amur" on the Komsomolsk refinery. With regard to the offshore fields on
Sakhalin Island, in the framework of production sharing agreements (PSA) in its entirety is
transported for export.
Since the level of regional and export demand for petroleum products is high, the level of
capacity utilization Achinsk and Angarsk refineries "Rosneft" was 99% in 2013. And the level of
loading of the Khabarovsk and Komsovolskogo plants was less than 90% (due to remoteness and
insufficient own resources base ). In 2014, the level of loading of the Achinsk and Angarsk
refineries reduced to 90% loading of the Khabarovsk refinery is also reduced by 3% and the
Komsomolsk refinery to increase the load to 97%.
To refineries in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, the annual volume of oil refining
increased by more than 10 million tonnes per year from 2000 to 2012 due to increased level of
loading of existing capacities from 47 to 96.7% (Fig. 1.5). Since 2012, the volume of production
is not increased, decreased by 2 million tons, capacity utilization level has decreased to 90.9% in
2014 g.. With the growth of production capacity at the Achinsk and Komsomolsk refineries was
9
a great reduction in the region's largest Angarsk Petrochemical Company from 23.4 million tons
in 2000 to 10.2 million tons in 2010-2013. But in 2014 production at the Angarsk refinery
increased by 10% and amounted to 11.2 million tons.
At the moment, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the need for petroleum products is met
by imported raw materials and production of commercial plants. There are two installation
"YATEC" processing gas condensate and Srednevilyuiskoye Mastahskom GCF and Talakan
plant for the production of bitumen ( "Surgutneftegaz") for its own needs. Now there is the
potential to increase refining capacity in the country. Because they do not have enough funding
suspended construction of a number of small processing plants.
With vigorous growth in oil production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East found the need
to rehabilitate and expand the capacity of existing refineries and building new ones.
The state of the transport infrastructure
Oil pipelines. The impetus for the beginning of the development of raw material base oil
to the east of the country was the construction of the ESPO pipeline and spetsmornefteporta
"Kozmino", supplying and connecting pipelines - "Pur-Pe-Samotlor", "Vankor-Pur-Pe",
"Verkhnechonskoe-Talakanskoye-VSTO" and "Northern Sakhalin-De Castries, "" North-South
Sakhalin Sakhalin ".
Oil fields in Western and Eastern Siberia to the ports of the Far East, as well as with
consumers APR joined the oil pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean".
Refinery facilities
45
40.4 40.4
40
35.1
35
30
33 33.1
34.3
33 34.2
32.1 32
30 29.9
30 30.7
29.9
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fig. 1.4. Refining capacity in Eastern Siberia and the Far East in 2000-2014 gg. the factories
A source: InfoTEK. Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2000-2014 gg.
10
35
30
26
25
22
21
20
19
22
23
24
27
27
28
29
29
29
90.9
27
90
83.6
84
75.7
80
19
69.3
70
66.3
15
70
66.6
58.4
60
Refinery utilization, %
Basic oil refinery, mln. t
94.2
100
95.7 96.7 95.1
10
47.3
50
5
46.5
0
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fig. 1.5. Primary processing of oil and refinery capacity utilization level in Eastern Siberia and
the Far East in 2000-2014 gg.
A source:InfoTEK. Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2000-2014 gg.
On the site "Taishet-Skovorodino" in 2006 the first stage of ESPO capacity of 30 million
tons and will be completed in December 2009, it was launched in the volume of 15 million tons
debugged oil supplies through the pipeline "Russia-China" route "Skovorodino-Daqing" from
December 2010 to implement the agreement between the governments of Russia and China to
expand cooperation in the field of crude oil trade and a new contract, "Rosneft" with China's
CNPC, it was decided in 2013 on increasing the capacity of this section of the pipeline to 30
million tons by 2018 city
Construction of the second phase of the project «Skovorodino-SMNP" Kozmino "" was
completed in late 2012 which capacity is 30 million tons per year, it is planned to increase
capacity to 50 million tons per year by 2016 through the construction of additional pumping
stations.
Pipeline "Pur-Pe-Samotlor" was put into operation in late 2011 for VSTO oil supplies from
the Vankor-Suzunskoye zones and deposits YANAO and Northeast Khanty-Mansiysk. Pipeline
"Zapolyarnoe-purpe" capacity of 25 million tons of oil per year to be built and put into operation
in 2016 [9]. That will make it possible to start a large-scale oil production in the company
11
"Rosneft" oil fields(Outboard, Suzunskoye, Tagulskoye in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory
and the Russian located in the Taz region of Yamalo-Nenets District), "LUKOIL"
(Pyakyakhinskoye
Messoyakhskoye
in
in
Yamalo-Nenets),
Yamalo-Nenets),
"Gazprom
Russian-Italian
Neft"
joint
(Novoportovskoye,
venture
East
"Severenergia
"(Samburgskoye, Evo-Yakhinskoye, Yaro-Yakhinskoye and North Chaselsky YaNAO).
Nevertheless, "Rosneft" stated that will transport oil to the amount of 74 million tons from 2017
to 2025. instead of 170 million tons from 2015 to 2025. the pipeline "Arctic-Pur-Pe".
Now comes the construction of the main pipeline "Kuyumba-Taishet" with a planned
capacity of 15 million tons of oil per year, which will make it possible to connect to the ESPO
pipeline system field in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory - Yurubcheno- Tokhomskoye and
Kuyumbinsk. In 2016 the pipeline will be put into operation. [15]
In order to replace the rail supply of raw materials to the factories, to ensure the supply of
raw materials in the expanded volume and loading of new capacity plants, and reduce transport
costs in the structure of production of petroleum products cost in 2013 with "Transneft" company
agreed solutions on connecting Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk refineries refinery to the ESPO
pipeline system.
Gas pipelines.Unified Gas Supply System with the endpoint in Praskovya (Kemerovo
Region) - this is the main gas transport system of Russia. In view of this, the degree of
gasification in the east of Russia, which is 6.9% 10 times lower than the national average, where
the gasification degree equals 63.2%. Since the territory is not the backbone of the transport
infrastructure, some local gas supply system was established in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and
Sevres inRepublic Saha (Iakutiia).
Mastering prepared for the gas fields in the region hampered by lack of a unified gas
transmission system.
Gas supply individual settlements and industrial enterprises going through the construction
of gas pipelines of lead mining companies.
On the territory of the Irkutsk region - "Bratsk gas condensate field (GCF) - Bratsk" GDS
"Osinovka" - n Zyaba and "Osinovka" - n Gidrostroitel.;. in the Republic of Sakha - "Kyzyl-Syr MAST - Berge - Yakutsk" and "Peace - Aikhal - Lucky", in the Kamchatka region - "Sobolevo Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky" and Chukotka - "West Ozernoye gas field - Anadyr" work such
feeding gas.
Providing gas for industrial and municipal consumers Sakhalin region and Khabarovsk
(Komsomolski industrial unit) conducted via pipeline branches from the main "Northern
Sakhalin - Komsomolsk-on-Amur" pipeline.
12
In the near future pipeline "Power of Siberia" will become an important part of the gas
transportation system in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. The pipeline with a planned length of
4,000 km and capacity at the level of 38 billion. Cubic meters of gas per year will be located in
the Irkutsk and Amur regions, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
and the Khabarovsk Territory.
In May, 2014 "Gazprom" has contracted gas supplies through a pipeline to China, and later
in September of the same year the first connection pipe unit, and in October 2015 the Prime
Ministers of Russia and China signed an agreement on gas supply. It requires the creation of
long-distance pipeline system, as well as processing plants and liquefied natural gas, the
formation of infrastructure for the shipment of oil, oil products, LNG and condensate in order to
make large supplies of oil and gas to Russian consumers and for export to Asia-Pacific countries
in Eastern Siberia and the Far East [28].
Complete the construction of the pipeline is expected to 2022 first deliveries of gas to
China planned to begin in 2018, and by 2020 the gas supply should increase to 10 billion cubic
meters. m per year.
Supply of oil and gas export
With the fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, the oil produced comes primarily in the
Asia-Pacific region. About 49.5 million tons of oil was exported in 2013 from Eastern Siberia
and the Far East. The level of oil export deliveries in the previous year was 12.5% lower. 75% of
all oil exported, produced in eastern Russia, and 25% - in the framework of the Sakhalin projects
the IDB.
The oil produced in East Siberia and the Far East are exported by means of the pipeline
system "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean", and then through the pipeline laterals "SkovorodinoDaqing" to the port Kozmina. In 2013 it was possible to significantly increase the volume of oil
exported from the port of Kozmino to the level of 21.3 million tons, which is 30.7% above the
previous year's level due to the development of the ESPO oil pipeline system (Table 1.1.).
Export deliveries of oil from Eastern Siberia and the Republic of Sassa (Yakutia) are
carried out inJapan (7.6 million tonnes), China (4.9 million tonnes) and South Korea (2.1 million
tons), the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, the USA, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia, New Zealand
and Australia.
Start pipeline oil deliveries to China is made possible by the construction of the oil pipeline
"Skovorodino-Daqing", now it has become the largest oil pipeline, which delivers oil to export to
the Asia-Pacific region. [31] About 46% of oil exported to China from Russia to the Pacific
direction, taking into account marine supplies.
13
With offshore Sakhalin Island oil for export comes from the port of De-Kastri, located in
the Khabarovsk Territory, as well as the port of Prigorodnoye, in the south of Sakhalin Island.
On the fields of the project "Sakhalin-1" of underwater oil pipeline oil is supplied to the port of
De-Kastri. With offshore project "Sakhalin-2" through "TransSakhalin" pipeline oil enters the
port of Prigorodnoye.
Major South Korea (6.4 million) offshore oil purchasers of Sakhalin are, Japan (3.4 million
tons) and China (2 million tons). About 12.4 million tons of oil received for export to the PSA
projects in 2013. This is 1.6% below the level in 2012
Deposits of "Sakhalin-2" project is the only resource on the part of the supply of gas for
export to Eastern Siberia and the Far East. The liquefaction of natural gas, which is then supplied
to the export takes place on the first gas liquefaction plants in Russia, which began its work in
2009. The major LNG importers are Japan (8.7 million tonnes) and South Korea (2.1 million
tons), all in 2013 it was exported about 10.8 million tonnes of LNG (tab. 1.2).
Thus the Eastern Siberia and the Far East - are actively growing component of the oil and
gas industry. Degree of scrutiny and exploration is quite low in this area, in view of the basis for
sustainable growth in oil and gas production in the long term and the priorities of the COG
region is to increase the reliability of the raw material base of hydrocarbons. By increasing the
volume of exploration work and funding promising slaborazvedannyh territories will be able to
improve the reliability of the raw material base.
At the moment, the Nepa-Botuobinsky (Irkutsk region and the Republic of Sakha), Vankor
(Krasnoyarsk Territory) and Yurubcheno- Tokhomskoye (Krasnoyarsk Territory) oil production
centers are the largest in the east of Russia. A strong impetus to the development of the resource
base and the development of oil production in the east of Russia was the construction of
transport infrastructure. After that, in the development have been introduced deposits of the
Nepa-Botuoba and Vankor centers.
Lack pipeline system restricts Vankorskoye center (including outboard, and Suzunskoye
Tagulskoye deposit) and Yurubcheno- Tokhomsk center (Yurubcheno- Tokhomskoye,
Kuyumbinsk et al.). Increase the volume of oil production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
will enable the development of promising projects.
Currently, capacity utilization reaches a level of 95-97%, which contributes to the
construction of new plants and facilities with a further increase in the volume of oil refining in
the east of Russia. Increase the availability of raw materials existing refineries, as well as create
additional design capacity will allow the construction of oil pipelines-taps of the ESPO.
The gas industry is virtually absent in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, with the exception
of the local gas supply systems in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Sevres Krasnoyarsk
14
Territory. In the near future it is expected to create the largest gas complex, including the mining
sector, processing, transportation, gas and refined products. Most Eastern Siberia - a field that
contain oil, gas, condensate, and a part of the free gas, except methane, contained in a large
amount of its homologues (ethane, propane, butane, condensate and helium). It is therefore
necessary to increase growth by investment
Table. 1.1. Exports of crude oil from Eastern Siberia and Far East
2012
2013
Source of supply / export direction
million tons million tons
%
sources of supply
Sakhalin-1 (De-Kastri port)
7.1
7
14
Sakhalin-2 (Prigorodnoye port)
5.5
5.4
eleven
Kozmino (VSTO)
16.3
21.3
43
The pipeline-tap "Skovorodino-Daqing" (the ESPO)
15.1
15.8
32
supply / export direction method
China
2.1
2.0
4
3.5
3.4
7
Maritime transport through the port Japan
of De-Kastri and Suburban (PSA
South Korea
6.6
6.4
13
projects)
other
0.4
0.5
1
Total
12.6
12.4
25
China
4.1
4.9
10
4.9
7.6
15
Maritime transport through the port Japan
of Kozmino (ESPO pipeline,
South Korea
1.0
2.1
4
"Transneft")
other
6.4
6.7
14
Total
16.3
21.3
43
Pipeline transport (VSTO"Skovorodino-Daqing",
Total (China)
15.1
15.8
32
"Transneft")
Total exports
China
21.3
22.7
46
Japan
8.4
11.0
22
South Korea
7.6
8.6
17
other
6.8
7.2
15
in total
44.0
49.5
100
A source:Monthly analytical bulletin. № 1. - 2013-2014 gg. The Federal Customs Service /
Customs statistics of foreign trade in 2014[Electronic resource]. - Access:
URL:http://www.customs.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13858&Itemid=
2095
15
Table. 1.2. Structure LNG deliveries from Russia in 2013
million tons
bcm. m
Source of supply / export direction
sources of supply
10.8
14.6
Sakhalin 2
supply / Export Destinations method
Japan
8.7
11.6
South Korea
2.1
2.8
Maritime transport through
Prigorodnoye port
other
0.1
0.2
10.8
14.6
Total exports
A source: Association of Sea Commercial Ports[Electronic resource]. - Access:
URL:http://www.morport.com/rus/news/document1487.shtml
state in the mining segment, and transportation of hydrocarbons, as well as to finance the
processing of production and high-tech chemical production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East.
1.2.
Problems of development of oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia and the
Far East
To the economy of Eastern Siberia and the Far East has developed relatively stable in the
long term should be based on the creation of regional production systems, processing of
hydrocarbon raw materials [14], the production of petrochemical products with high added value
to transition from a resource and transit development strategies for innovation-based economy.
The territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East has a high resource potential and is in close
proximity to the emerging markets of the Asia-Pacific region - this works in favor of the
formation of the innovative direction of the economy.
Nevertheless, there are a number of socio-demographic, technological, infrastructural,
economic and geopolitical issues that limit the development of the eastern regions of Russia.
The economic problems are like: a small fraction of the gross regional product in the east
of Russia; the location of the centers of profit and economic activity in the metropolitan areas;
small economic density of population; the presence of the predominance of raw materials and
transit strategies in Eastern Siberia and the Far East.
With regard to technological and infrastructural problems, here they are: poor development
of the transportation, industrial, energy and information and communications industries; lack of
raw materials for some of the industrial enterprises East of Russia; unresolved issue regarding
the problem of utilization of associated components of natural gas fields in the east of Russia
(ethane, propane, butane, helium) by loading existing and formation of new petrochemical
production facilities, the construction of storage facilities.
Migration of the population; low quality and living standards; a fairly high level of
unemployment - is the socio-demographic problems.
16
Formation of oil and gas complex of Eastern Russia could allow a multiplier effect and
makes it possible to solve some of the socio-economic issues, such as low density of population,
the local nature of resettlement, depopulation, poor transportation, industrial, energy and
information and communication industries.
Now in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East economic space required
compression strategy. Which in turn requires the need for a high rate of economic growth in
these areas, as well as the intense increase of the number of able-bodied population.
Low population density in large areas of Eastern Siberia and the Far East with large
reserves of energy and mineral resources is not evenly distributed. Migration and depopulation
of some of the important causes of population decline in Eastern Siberia and the Far East in 1991
Low development of the industry of the economy, namely the transportation, industrial,
energy and information and communication has led to restrictions of realization of any activity in
the east of Russia, reduced the competitiveness of products, goods and services.
The economic recovery is associated with the extraction of natural resources and the
formation of the supporting infrastructure for export. Social and economic order in East Siberia
and the Far East is converted at a low speed, there is a delay in the innovative development of
the economy. Currently, the products processing enterprises formed using older technology that
does not allow it to be competitive in the global market. The creation and use of new
technologies, as well as the development of an effective innovation system capable of giving an
economic result and the technological leadership of Russia.
1.3.
Perspective directions of development of oil and gas complex of Eastern
Siberia and the Far East
To the economy of Eastern Siberia and the Far East was developing in the right direction
requires the creation of a huge complex of power supply in Eastern Siberia and the Far East and
the Pacific. [11] Given the economic and geopolitical interests of the country, development
trends in the international system of energy supply, as well as the nature of the industrial
processes both in Russia and in the world economy should implement the following perspective
directions:
- the creation of new centers of formation of profit within the eastern territories of Russia
with new Russian and foreign technologies in the field of extraction and processing of raw
materials and an increase in product quality and the depth of oil refining;
- the direct supply of gas, oil and oil products to new and existing markets;
- redirect the supply of raw materials for export to the fast-growing markets of the Pacific
(China, Korea, Japan, India, the Philippines, the West Coast of North America) due to a
17
stagnating European market and a highly competitive market of the United States Atlantic coast
[5];
- increasing the share of oil and gas production, oil and gas chemical and helium industry
in Eastern Russia in the structure of Russian exports to the Asia-Pacific region, including
segments with high added value;
- Agreement for the supply of oil, petroleum products, gas and helium should be concluded
on reasonably high prices in the long term;
- execute orders for the construction of energy and transport infrastructure (oil and gas
pipelines, underground storage of natural gas and helium concentrate) and the provision of
technological services in the energy sector;
- participation in the profits from the sale of petroleum, petroleum products and gas in the
territory of the importing countries;
- Participation in the joint operation and management of transport, transit and distribution
of gas infrastructure, oil and oil products in the importing countries;
- attracting investment and technology in geological exploration and development of
hydrocarbon deposits in Siberia and the Far East, the shelf seas of the Pacific and Arctic Oceans;
- attracting investment and technology in the creation of industries for deep processing of
hydrocarbons on the Russian territory, the development of alternative and renewable energy
facilities (wind, geothermal, solar, tidal energy and biofuels based on product processing and
Russian agricultural waste).
The main primary focus of "Fuel and Energy Complex" Russia is the formation of new
large centers of world-class oil and gas complex of Eastern Siberia territories and the Far East
[26], increasing the reliability of domestic supply and the creation of commercially viable oil
exports, oil, gas in the world a huge fast-growing Pacific market.
Formation of the territory of the Russian deep-processing complexes, increasing the share
of deliveries of products with high added value, the participation of Russian companies in
foreign energy projects will improve energy security and technological Russia, as well as to
carry out geo-political and economic interests of Russia in the world.
Priorities and development projects in the east Oil and Gas complex
Priority areas created within the software industry and government documents of regional
development and outlined in the investment plans of oil companies due to which it will be
possible the development of the oil and gas industry in the east of Russia, as well as the
strengthening of the geopolitical and economic positions in the Pacific:
In the exploration and production of hydrocarbons - this increase in exploration work on
the entire territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East, in addition to the route of ESPO; increase
18
in hydrocarbon reserves; integrated development of reserves and resources of oil and gas
production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, the Far East shelf seas;
In hydrocarbon processing - the construction of high performance system for advanced
processing gas, and construction of facilities and petrochemical plants to release helium and
helium concentrate production in regions Lensk, Ust Kut, Sayansk, Lower Poyma (either
Boguchany) Khabarovsk; the formation of a mini-refinery systems, the construction of a regional
refinery and the export value in Yakutia; increase financial and economic presence of Russian
companies in the construction and operation of processing industries in the Asia-Pacific region.
The system of transport and distribution of hydrocarbons - is to increase the design
capacity level of the ESPO oil pipeline capacity increase Kozmino port terminal capacity oilremoval capacity of China "Skovorodino-Daqing"; creating a system of underground storage
helium concentrate in Irkutsk region, Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk edges, Sakha (Iakutiia);
forming terminals Pacific for storage and shipment of crude oil, petroleum, petrochemical
products (polymers, methanol, helium concentrate et al.); creation of LNG plant and a terminal
on its despatch area Vladivostok (Found) expansion capacity of an existing LNG plant at
Sakhalin; the formation of a unified system of "Siberia - Far East - Asia-Pacific" pipeline, which
makes it possible to connect the East Siberian fields with a pipeline and port infrastructure in the
Far East.
19
Chapter 2. Methodological approaches to assessing the economic efficiency of
development of hydrocarbon resources
2.1. Analysis of methodological approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of investment
projects
2.1.1. Overview of Russian methodological approaches
Economic effeciensy analysis is an interest of lots of Russian and foreign scientiests. Big
amount of researches were done with the following works. One of the first Russian studies on
the economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources in the modern economy was: "Methodical
recommendations on economic evaluation and classification of probable resources of the world
ocean oil and gas" established in 1979 in VNIGRI - this is one of the. The paper elaborated
especially the development of offshore hydrocarbon fields [12].
In 1983, the "Provisional guidelines for the economic evaluation of oil and gas fields" has
been developed in VNIIOENG [15]. This technique of economic evaluation is the first approved
by the Ministry of Oil Industry of the USSR. Economic evaluation in this procedure is defined as
a cash equivalent economic effect from the use of the reserves given time factor. In the technique
cost criteria values determined hydrocarbons represented operational costs and capital
investments; excluded from calculations previously invested funds and supplies the extracted.
Evaluation methods of hydrocarbon resources taking into account the probability of
geological parameters become widespread with the 1990s. Methods based on the reduction of the
cost of the final product to the cost of the hydrocarbons, has been developed in VSEGEI.
reduction coefficient is calculated as the product of the coefficients of bringing resources and
reserves to stocks of industrial categories (K1) and the coefficient of reduction of the final
product to the price of the resource category (K2). Factor K1 shows the probability of the
transition of resources to reserves. This method does not take into account the factor of time,
thereby limiting the scope of its application.
V.V. Shcherbakov, in his article "Operational geological and economic evaluation of
prospective oil and gas resources in the subsoil use licensing conditions" in 1996 proposed a
model for the use of probabilistic methods [30]. In this model, the value of deposits is calculated
based on the cost of the commodity.
The condition of choosing the optimal deposit is the value of the commodity in the first
model and the second. But VV Shcherbakov took into account the time factor in his model.
Released in 2000, the work "Methodological Guide for the quantitative and economic
evaluation of oil resources, gas and condensate in Russia" was the result of extensive research
VNIIGAZ, IGNG SB RAS, VNIGNI, VNIGRI, SNIIGGiMS and other research institutions. [33]
The paper shows the economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources in the current economic
20
conditions. This methodological approach was used probabilistic methods resource assessments,
computer technologies.
One of advantages of this method is a comprehensive approach that makes it possible to
create various infrastructure projections, geological, technological parameters.
As for the disadvantages, there are the following:
1. The weak link with the regulations applying in the modern practice of economic
evaluation of hydrocarbon resources.
2. In this work, no traditional economic valuation parameters such as NPV, IRR, IP,
payback period.
3. In carrying out the economic assessment of resources are not considered particularly
new areas for which it is difficult to use the method of analogies.
4. It is not enough to take into account the time factor. So all the field are estimated at the
same time, without taking into account the forecast of the dynamics of the initial data is not
taken into account peculiarities of the infrastructure for a variety of fields.
5. Do not quite worked out model of forecasting of technical and economic indicators. As
an indicator of capital expenditure are encouraged to use the specific cost of construction
projects, however, is not the source of the original data.
6. When calculating economic assessments are not sufficiently taken into account the
factors of technological, environmental and economic risks.
7. Do not worked sufficiently clearly describe the parameters in accordance with which the
selected best mode design.
Contrary to what was carried out a major study, as well as a deep study of problems of
economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources, but there is still a number of unresolved
problems.
Since mathematical methods have been increasingly applied in the geological and
economic evaluation of hydrocarbon reserves and resources, were developments in the field of
software. complexes were formed, which helped to simplify the calculations of resource
assessment and the effectiveness of their development, but still remains a problem with the
choice of the initial data, information about the resource base, the initial objective of cost
characteristics.
It is worth to note the program Schlumberger, USC (Ukrainian Software Consortium),
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), Landmark Graphics, SCA (Subsurface Consultants &
Associates), and other systems on the economic evaluation. It abroad. In Russia, under the
leadership of A.A. Gert SNIIGGiMS specialists developed software complex "Strategy". It
provides an opportunity to carry out the valuation of forward-looking structures, traps, license
21
areas, separate fields and deposits. [6] This approach aims to assess the effectiveness of
investment in exploration contributes to the calculation of reserves and resources, makes it
possible to calculate the forecast resource base indicators, process indicators, however, takes into
account the probability characteristics of the resulting indicators and risk (1999, 2003, 2005).
The range of services provided by service companies, quite often includes geological and
economic evaluation. For example, JSC "Pangea" to conduct a systematic evaluation of
investment attractiveness of the search blocks, using software packages created by the company
"Nadra" and "Pangea".
In IGNG SB RAS issues of geological and economic evaluation of mineral resources
engaged in A.E. Kontorovich, A.G. Korzhubaev, I.V. Filimonova, L.V. Eder (1999-2012) [12].
In IEIE SB RAS KK Valtukh developed an approach to the evaluation of natural resources,
the base of which was information theory of value. Part of the work G.M. Mktrchyan devoted to
the problem of effective field development and the construction of mathematical models of
development of deposits [17]. N.I. Plyaskina in his work draws attention to the need for
integrated development of oil and gas areas. [21] T.S. Novikov is actively engaged in assessing
the effectiveness of investment projects on the basis of inter-sectoral interaction model [20].
As the economy develops, and hydrocarbon reserves are depleted, so it increases the need
for a systematic approach to the evaluation of mineral resources. Also price characteristics
should be considered qualitative characteristics hydrocarbons. Of particular importance are the
issues of logistics, optimization of the tax burden, and others.
Currently, the criteria for economic evaluation of hydrocarbon reserves and resources in
Russia is much closer to the criteria used in the general practice of the evaluation of investment
projects, which were adopted from abroad.
Officially adopted methodology for evaluating investment projects is currently the
technique of the RF Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation "On approval of the Methodology of calculating and applying the criteria of
efficiency of investment projects eligible for state support at the expense of the Investment Fund
of the Russian Federation" (Order №139 / 82H of 23 May 2006). The first edition of this
technique was approved in 1997
Important conditions of the methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness are the (NPV,
IRR, payback period), budgetary efficiency (the amount of tax payments, income from the use of
state property) and economic efficiency.
Estimation of investment projects of regional importance carried out in accordance with
the "Methodology of calculating and applying the criteria of effectiveness of regional investment
projects," the Ministry of Regional Development, approved by the government.
22
This technique is very similar to the procedure for Economic Development. And also
contains a mechanism for calculating the minimum and maximum levels of investment and
resources about the forecast rate of inflation.
In addition to formal methods of evaluation of investment projects undertaken by the
Government, there are many individual techniques. One of the known techniques is a technique
RAS institutes (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Institute of Systems Analysis, et
al.). The technique involves the theoretical material, which provides an assessment of various
aspects of project efficiency (financial, social, regional, industry, budget efficiency), as well as
practical problems.
The "textbook on the development of business plans Recommendations for the chambers
of commerce," developed by the Committee of the Russian Federation Chamber of Commerce
on the investment policy, among other things examines the risks and the criteria for costeffectiveness.
Methodology is dedicated to evaluating the effectiveness of the project and financial
analysis, which are based on three main indicators: IRR, NPV, and discounted payback period.
Important areas in the evolution of the methods and techniques of geological and economic
evaluation is to update the geological and economic part. This is due to the expansion of
quantitative methods for assessing hydrocarbon potential and using the tools of mathematical
apparatus in the calculation criteria of economic efficiency of development of reserves and
resources, as well as the justification of the individual parameters.
2.1.1. Foreign experience
Economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources in the world is used widely enough, it
investigates forms of ownership of natural resources, land, level of economic development.
Methods of economic evaluation, which contain a time factor are the most widespread. All
other methods are used only when the task is limited in time (one year or production cycle.
In Australia, the USA, Canada, South Africa, the UK economic evaluation "mineral
assets" is an essential component for effective management of property, mainly subsoil fund.
Organizations evaluators such as ASA, RICS, CICBV, as well as organizations specialized in the
field of mineral resources assessment - it AusIMM, AIMA, CIM, CIMV, SaIMM, SPEE are a
function of regulating economic assessment of subsoil.
Methodology of the World Bank published in 1998. In the procedure, among other things
considered socially efficient projects, which in Russia is not financially attractive.
Methods of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) - a
technique of project analysis. A distinctive feature of this technique is the specificity of objects.
Projects are under study UNIDO industrial development project scope. Lack of consideration of
23
the risks and the lack of recommendations for setting prices for products and volumes of its
production, while these parameters are the main when assessing the effectiveness of this
technique are the main drawbacks.
Little-Mirrlees method used to calculate the value of all goods and services in international
prices. This method has a lot of drawbacks and limitations. Method and investment project
selection criteria are implicitly based on the concept of a planned economy with unlimited labor
supply, world prices for the products affected by speculation, which can lead to incorrect
evaluation of investment projects by the method of Little - Mirrlees, the method requires a large
number of additional calculations in the period realization of the investment project in relation to
possible changes in world prices for goods and services and, accordingly, the need to obtain tions
calculation of new coefficients for the conversion price.
For the first time the European Council procedure was published in 1997 and it is
designed for the evaluation of projects. The technique provides a mechanism for calculating the
indicators on which it is estimated, as well as showing the risk analysis mechanisms, forms of
their presentation, reduction techniques. An important feature of this method is the isolation of
economic analysis as one of the two directions project evaluation, and a detailed discussion is
not only industrial projects, but also projects specificity assessment in other sectors.
There are also used by the investment project evaluation criteria such as payback period,
the simple rate of return, net present value, profitability index, the ratio benefit / cost ratio,
internal rate of return.
Payback period (Payback period) - the period of time during which the income from the
organization's activities (cash inflows) will be equal to the investment in the project.
Rather simple calculations. But there is a subjective choice of regulatory payback period.
Also not taken into account the profitability of the project after the payback period, it is not
possible to compare projects with payback periods equal, but different periods of life. Time
value of money is also not taken into account.
Simple rate of return - part of the investment, which is made up for during the planning
period. Investments are determined by comparing the computed value with minimum or medium
level of yield. The calculations are simple, but not taken into account the value of future
earnings.
Net Present Value -the sum of the current values of all predicted, with discount rates, cash
flows. An important factor is the scale of the organization.NPV greatest value is not always the
more effective investment, which is an important limitation in comparing projects. If the NPV is
equal and the capital intensity of projects are different, according to this criterion is impossible to
determine the best option.
24
Profitability index (profitability index, PI) shows the discounted cash flows from the
magnitude of the project or project relative profitability per unit investment.
Benefits to Costs Ratio is calculated by dividing flow discounted arrived at discounted
costs stream. If the ratio is greater than one, then the project is considered to be beneficial. You
can assess the ultimate level of growth of expenses for which the project remains attractive.
Internal rate of return - shows the discounted "break even" point in which discounting
costs flux is discounted flow returns.
The criteria for geological and economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources are used the
most common criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in Russia and
abroad.
2.2. Improvement of the methodical approach to the economic evaluation of
hydrocarbon resources
2.2.1. Directions of improvement of economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources
When you select the effective direction of the project development of extractive industries
are the geological and economic evaluation of the raw material base.
Increased competition for promising areas of mineral resources increases the importance of
economic evaluation of mineral resources. At the moment there are no methods and algorithms
for the economic evaluation of oil and gas facilities, which would take into account the
peculiarities of the modern subsoil. But there are methodological approaches that deal with
specific issues issues G.A. Aleksin, K.N. Milovidov [1], Y.P. Ampilov [2] Y.M. Arsky [3] M.D.
Belonin, V.I. Nazarov [4] A.A. Gert [6] G.A. Grigoriev [7], L.P. Guzhnovsky [8] A.A. Ilinsky
[23], A.E. Kontorovich, L.M. Burstein [10], K.N. Milovidov, L.N. Iluhin [16], G.M. Mkrtchyan
[17], M.S. Modelevsky G.S. Gurevich, E.A. Djachkov I.J. Feinstein [18] V.I. Nazarov [19] N.I.
Plyaskina [21] Y. V. Podolsky [22], B.V. Robinson [24], G.P. Crickets [25] E.M. Halimov [29]
and others.
The emphasis in the economic evaluation to the period of market reforms has been made in
the study of economic efficiency involvement in economic turnover of stocks. After depletion of
resource base of the European part of the country's work on prospecting and exploration of oil
and gas have been moved to remote areas and waters. Increased costs during exploitation has led
to the need for economic evaluation of new territories.
The main instrument for decision-making in the field of state regulation of the relations of
subsoil and development of mineral resource base is the economic evaluation of deposits. This is
spelled out in the document regulating subsoil use in Russia - "Subsoil Law " of February 21,
1992 № 2395-I as amended on July 23, 2013, Article 23.1. "Geological and economic and
valuation of mineral deposits and subsoil".
25
Now during the economic evaluation are a set of temporary guidelines and methodological
recommendations.
Economic evaluation is required to be carried out at each stage of the development of the
mineral complex. To increase the validity of the decision-making and strategy. Inventory
valuation is the most studied. A resource estimate does not exist, its implementation is based on
the methodological recommendations of industry and academic institutions.
Now the economic evaluation of mineral resources in the regulatory framework can be
interpreted in two ways.
First - this is according to the original wording of Article 23.1 of the "geological-economic
assessment carried out to determine the commercial value of mineral deposits in geological
study of subsoil and in the formulation of mineral reserves on the state balance." The importance
and need for this assessment is fixed in the "Provisional Regulations of the state examination of
mineral reserves, geological, economic and ecological information on the subsoil blocks" (in
redaction by Rosnedra 11.09.2009 number 887) [32]. The document was created by the State
Commission on Mineral Reserves of the Russian Federation Ministry of Natural Resources to
adapt existing mechanisms for geological and economic evaluation of mineral deposits to the
requirements of the market economy and the RF "Subsoil Law".
The results of such evaluation are presented in the document "Feasibility study exploratory
(estimates) of conditions" and "Feasibility of conditions operational." In the first document it is
argued quality requirements and technical conditions development of reserves that enable to
divide them into "balance" (cost-effective) and the "off-balance" (relatively cost-effective). After
which address issues of financing exploration and economic efficiency of the industrial
development of proven reserves. The second document is recorded information on the allocation
priority and commercially viable for the production of reserves. On the basis of the document is
monitored completeness mining of mineral resources and subject to the conditions of the subsoil
user license.
Second - this is according to the amendments to Article 23.1 of the RF Law "Subsoil law",
introduced by the Federal Law of January 2, 2000 № 20-FL, provided valuation of mineral
deposits, which will serve as a basis for determining the amount of fees for use of mineral
resources, including starting fee amounts in the preparation of tenders and auctions. The need for
such an assessment is fixed by the Federal Law "Subsoil" in Article 13.1 "Tenders or auctions
for subsoil use" and Article "One-off payments for the use of mineral resources upon the
occurrence of certain events specified in the license."[40]
Performing such an assessment is regulated by the Order of the Russian Ministry of
Natural Resources on September 30, 2008 № 232 "On Approval of the Methodology for
26
determining the starting size of a single payment for subsoil use." This technique is more simple
approach to determining the value of produced mineral potentially using the conversion and
correction factors.
Economic-geological evaluation hydrocarbon reserves and resources can become a
universal tool in the economic feasibility of promising areas of reproduction of the mineral
resource base and expediency of development of oil and gas projects of different scales.
Objects of geological and economic assessment may be oil and gas properties (oil and gas
industry in general; petroleum province, region, area; petroleum accumulation area (projected
resources D2, and partly D1); subsurface area subject to licensing; petroleum accumulation area
and identified a trap (projected localized resources D1 promising resources C3) prepared trap
deposit reservoir (partially and fully proven reserves C2, and fully pre-estimated reserves C1);
deposit as explained Industrial production Assortments (reserves C2, C1, B, A)).
The main tasks of geological and economic evaluation phases are caused by this
assessment: 1) making a plan of government revenues during the development of mineral
deposits (forecast revenues to the federal budget, special funds, international reserves); 2)
forecast the targets of the program reproduction of the mineral resource base of Russia
(justification of the priority areas of geological exploration, reserves growth estimate and the
provision for a program of geological exploration, stock preparation costs); 3) the economic
evaluation of the effectiveness and directions of regional prospect evaluation and exploration of
oil and gas territories at the expense of both the state and subsoil users; 4) the formation of areas
of licensing policy and control over compliance with license agreements in order to maximize
socio-economic benefits from the development of subsoil areas at national, regional and
corporate level; 5) classification profitable to develop and reserves resources provided the most
complete extraction of mineral resources, taking into account both the current level of
engineering and technology field development and application prospects and development of
new methods of intensification of oil production.
2.2.2. Algorithm economic evaluation of hydrocarbon resources
These existing techniques are of use in determining the performance criteria are advisory
and, does not account for the current tax system. In this connection there is need to develop a
methodical approach to the justification of investment projects in oil and gas industry.
As a result of this work it is advisable to allocate four blocks of the geological and
economic assessment: production and economic; feasibility; economic and financial and
sensitivity analysis (Fig. 2.1).
27
1. Production and economic model
Production forecast
–
Price indices forecast
–
Revenue forecast
–
2. Technical and economic model
Capital costs
–
Operating costs
–
Taxes
–
3. Financial and economic model
Revenue
–
Profit
–
NPV, IRR, PI...
–
4. Sensitivity analysis
Scenario method
–
Monte Carlo method
–
The method of decision tree
–
Fig. 2.1. Scheme of geological and economic evaluation
28
Unit of production and economic model defines the production forecast, which is based
on the geological and commercial development model of the deposit. The model is constructed
in terms of maximizing oil recovery ratio depending on the placement of the mesh and the
density of producing wells, reservoir flooding system and the forecast initial flow rate, and the
dynamics of its fall. Then, a forecast pricing and revenue.
Prediction of oil and gas extraction is carried out using a mathematical model which is
based on assumptions meringue. These assumptions include: 1) extraction is divided into stages,
it is possible to allocate the growing stage extraction step followed by extraction and phase
constant declining production; 2) design production capacity is 4-7% of the initial recoverable
reserves, which corresponds to the principles of rational subsoil; 3) a step of growing production
occurs within 3-5 years, the level of stable production "shelf" - 4-6 years, and also depends on
the field size, an exemplary portion of the development period - is 23-25 years.
In order to calculate the annual production level (D) necessary to the number of production
wells (n) multiplied by the output (d) of these wells in any given year:
𝑇
𝑗
𝐷 = ∑ ∑ 𝑛𝑡 ∗ 𝑑𝑗+1−𝑡 ,
𝑗=1 𝑡=1
The purpose of the block including the techno-economic model to perform the forecast
capital and operating costs of full field development on the basis of economically justified the
cost norms, the optimal variant of development of strategic plans for development of the
territory.
Technical and economic model includes the development of exploration programs, which
are defined and delimited data necessary for the evaluation study of the object volume of
geophysical works. After completion of the exploration phase begins trial operation, and then drilling, field input into the development and production of hydrocarbons.
Unit of comprising financial and economic model makes it possible to calculate a
system of indicators that reflect the commercial, fiscal, economic and social efficiency of
development of object of evaluation: revenue, profit and balance sheet net, taxes, differentiated
according to the budgets of different levels. As well as a set of investment attractiveness
indicators - net present value, internal rate of return, profitability index, payback period.
Sensitivity analysis unit determines the degree of influence of the main parameters of the
project variables on the performance indicators of field development. Variables are selling price
29
of crude oil, crude oil production, the amount of operating costs, as well as the size of capital
investments.
Calculation of the blocks include the feasibility and financial and economic models that
can justify the investment in the project is carried out as follows:
revenue calculated as the product of the price of oil and gas on their volume of production:
В = ∑ ∑ 𝐷𝑖𝑗 ∗ 𝐶𝑖𝑗 ,
𝑖
𝑗
where D - production (t), C - price (rubles), i- resource index (oil or gas), j - the index of
sales (external or internal market).
capital investment are defined as:
𝐶𝐼 = 𝐶𝐼 𝐸𝑋𝑃 + 𝐶𝐼 𝐷𝑅𝐼𝐿𝐿 + 𝐶𝐼 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐼𝐿 + 𝐶𝐼 𝑇𝑅𝐴𝑁𝑆𝑃 .
Where 𝐶𝐼 𝐸𝑋𝑃 - Capital investments in exploration, 𝐶𝐼 𝐷𝑅𝐼𝐿𝐿 CIFACIL 𝐶𝐼 𝑇𝑅𝐴𝑁𝑆 - capital
investments in drilling, exploration facilities and investments in transportation.
operating costs determined by the formula:
𝑂𝐶 = МЗ + 𝑊 + 𝐼𝑃 + 𝑅𝐶 + 𝑅𝑃 + 𝑀𝐸𝑇 + А + Т.
Where OC - the operating costs, the W - wages, IP - insurance premiums, RC - the cost of
repair, RP - regular payments, A – depreciation, T - transportation of oil and condensate by
pipeline laterals.
Taxes:
𝑇 = 𝑉𝐴𝑇 + 𝑃𝑇 + 𝑂𝑇,
where T - taxes without income tax and MET PT - property tax, OT - other taxes and
payments.
Gross profit from sales - defined as the income of the company, reducing the amount of
operational expenses containing a depreciation charge and the total amount of taxes:
Т
𝐺𝑃 = ∑(В𝑖 − 𝑂𝐶𝑖 − 𝑇𝑖),
𝑖=1
Where 𝑂𝐶𝑖 - operating costs, taking into account taxes in the cost structure of the year 𝑇𝑖 taxes on financial results excluding the income tax of the year i . T - the period of development.
Net profit - a gross profit minus the income tax:
𝑁𝑃𝑖 = GPi − T𝑖,
where T - income tax.
Geological and economic evaluation is to calculate the efficiency indicators such as net
present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback period (DPP).
30
Net present value It is calculated as the sum of profit from sales and depreciation, reduced
by the amount of investments directed to the development of oil fields - defined as the sum of
current annual flows, cast to the initial moment:
Т
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = ∑
(𝑁𝑃𝑖 + А𝑖 − 𝐶𝐼𝑖)
,
(1 + 𝑟)𝑖
𝑖=1
wherein r - discount rate.
Internal rate of return - this the value of the discount rate, at which the sum of net
investment income equal to the amount of investment orInterest rate (r), in which the net present
value, calculated by the deterministic cash flow is equal to 0:
Т
∑
(𝑁𝑃𝑖 + А𝑖 − 𝐶𝐼𝑖)
= 0,
(1 + 𝐼𝑅𝑅)𝑖
𝑖=1
Discounted payback period- the period of time t, for which the deterministic discounted
cash flows from the project discounted costs paid for:
Т
𝐷𝑃𝑃 = 𝑡 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 ∑
(𝑁𝑃𝑖 + А𝑖 − 𝐶𝐼𝑖)
= 0,
(1 + 𝑟)𝑖
𝑖=1
profitability index (PI) - the period of time T, required in order to determinate the
discounted cash flows from the project discounted costs paid for:
Т
(𝑁𝑃𝑖 + А𝑖)
(1 + 𝑟)𝑖
𝑃𝐼 = ∑
(𝐶𝐼𝑖)
(1 + 𝑟)𝑖
𝑖=1
As a result, the methodological approach makes it possible to justify the level of
investment in the development of deposits, and on their basis to calculate the efficiency of
investments.
31
Chapter 3. The analysis of the economic efficiency of development of hydrocarbon
resources in East Siberia
3.1. General characteristics of the research object (Nemchuysk license area in the
Irkutsk Region)
Nemchyusk deposit is located in Irkutsk region. Total area is 3451 km2.
Administratively Nemchuysk license area is located in the territory of the municipality
"Nizhneilymsk area" of Irkutsk Region. The nearest major settlements are the city of Irkutsk in
300 km to the north, Zima in 90 km south-east, are the center of the same area. Each of them has
an airfield. Zima is linked to the Irkutsk and Bratsk with, Highway (250 km and 600 km). From
Bratsk to Zima operates year round road class III national importance. The nearest railway
station is located in the neighboring region Zima 90 km. The immediate fields, which reserves
approved SRC USSR are East Sugdinskoye and Mogdinskoye bordering portion with the north
and west, respectively. From the Mogdinskoye block oil and gas field stretched gas pipeline to
the town of Mirny.
According VNIGNI of D1 category geological oil resources constitute 46.6 million tons of
gas resources categories D1 - 26.9 billion m3.
Prediction of oil on Nemchuysk area
Forecat of oil production on Nemchuysk field is configured to predict an initial flow rate
into account, the dynamics of single well productivity and technological field development
scheme, projected to the opening (comprising wells prediction operation data input by the
dynamics, wells and wells mesh density).
For initial evaluation of a single well productivity into account physical and hydrodynamic
characteristics productive reservoirs Nemchuysk portion. Technological developments circuit
includes a set of measures to improve the initial productivity of wells. Thus, there is provided
drilling directional wells (NSC) with horizontal stem (HS), and a length of 1000 m using a
multistage fracturing (MSGRP) 150 m intervals.
The initial production rate of 145 tons / day. or 51 thous. tons per year, followed by a fall in
23 years of development to 11.2 tons / day. or 3.9 thous. tons per year. liquid production will
remain unchanged almost all life of the well at the level of 74 thousand. tonnes per year.
In accordance with the stages of exploration and their efficiency on Nemchuysk site is
supposed to identify one main field and two satellites. the timing of the development of the main
field and inventory satellites determined volume increment oil stocks C1 and achievement level
of 70% of the initial recoverable reserves (C1 + C2).
In 2023, the first to be introduced in the main production, satellite 1 - in 2025, the satellite
2 - in 2028.
32
Dynamics of oil on Nemchyusk portion is shown in Table. 3.1 and Fig. 3.1.
The total volume of oil production in Nemchyusk site during the period 2023 for 2045
years taking into account the evaluation of the resource base, as well as due to the geological
conditions of the productive layer, the technological capabilities of commercial production
complex will be 28.5 million tonnes (Table 3.2.), including the main field – 16.9 million tons,
the satellite 1 - 7, 0 million tons, the satellite 2 - 4.6 million tons.
The maximum level of oil production in the area will be Nemchyusk 2276.5 thousand tons
and will be achieved in 2030, including the main field -. 1545.7 thousand tons in 2027, at the
satellite 1 -. 658.8 thousand tons. in 2029, at the satellite 2 - 504.4 thousand tons in 2031.
Table. 3.1. Prediction of oil on site Nemchyusk
years
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Total
Total
315
630
1373.8
1787.2
2061.3
2252.5
2276.7
2286.5
2190.2
1999.6
1777.7
1580.4
1405
1249
1110.4
987.2
877.6
780.2
693.6
616.6
548.2
487.3
433.2
28489.1
Main field
315
630
1242.6
1524.7
1565.4
1496.7
1383.1
1229.6
1093.1
971.8
863.9
768
682.8
607
539.6
479.7
426.5
379.2
337.1
299.7
266.4
236.8
210.5
16899.2
Oil, thous. Tons per year
Including:
Mine satellite 1
0
0
131.3
262.5
495.9
650.8
683.6
660.2
586.9
521.8
463.9
412.4
366.6
325.9
289.8
257.6
229
203.6
181
160.9
143
127.2
113.1
7023.1
Deposit Sat 2
0
0
0
0
0
105
210
396.7
510.2
506
449.9
399.9oil
355.6
316.1
281
249.8
222.1
197.4
175.5
156
138.7
123.3
109.6
4569.2
33
2500
Oil extraction, th. t
2000
1500
1000
500
0
105210
397
510
0 496651684
506
263
660
450
587
400
0
131
522
356
464
316
1565
412
281
1525 1497
367
250
1383
326
222
290
1230
0 1243
258229197176156
1093
972864
204181 139123
768683607
161143127110
0 630
540480426379
113
337300266237211
315
0
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
34
3.2. Feasibility study of the development of Nemchyusk license field of Irkutsk Region
3.2.1. Capital investment & exploration work
As part of the deologic-exploration program on Nemchyusk site during the period from
2017 to 2027 years planned 2D seismic reinterpretation of past years, seismic 3D works, drilling
of exploration wells.
Volumes and sequence of PGR determined in accordance with the assumption that the
opening at the portion of the main field and the two satellites.
Reinterpretation of seismic surveys of previous years in the amount of 1,000 km will be
held in 2017 and 2018. (Table. 3.4).
Nemchuysk area during 2019-2022. It will be covered with 3D seismic profiles volume
of 1,300 km. 3D seismic deposits will be covered with the primary area and two satellites
projected to the opening.
In the periods from 2019 to 2025. 7 exploration wells will be drilled Nemchyusk site, and
in the period from 2020-2026 years. 12 exploratory wells will be drilled at the site. The depth of
drilling exploration wells and exploration wells is 2200 m volume of exploration drilling on the
exploration program will be 15,750 m of exploration drilling -. 27000 m.
Evaluation of the cost of deep drilling, field and desktop views seismic survey carried out
on the basis of the prevailing values of exploration work in similar geology and climatic
conditions of the regions of Eastern Siberia (Table 3.3.).
Table. 3.3. The unit cost of exploration work on the site Nemchyusk
Index
Reinterpretation seismic 2D, ths. Rub.
Seismic exploration 2D, ths. Rub.
Seismic 3D, ths. Rub.
Drilling of exploratory wells, ths. Rub. / M
Drilling of exploratory wells, ths. Rub. / M
cost of
80
350
1990
190.0
210.0
35
Table. 3.4. Exploration program on Nemchyusk site
Index
Reinterpretation 2D seismic km
Seismic exploration 2D, km
Seismic 3D, square. km
The number of exploratory wells, pieces.
The depth of drilling exploratory wells, m
The volume of drilling exploratory wells, m
The number of exploration wells, units.
The depth of drilling exploratory wells, m
Volume of drilling exploratory wells, m
2017
500
2018
500
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
250
1
2250
2250
350
1
2250
2250
400
1
2250
2250
1
2250
2250
300
2021
0
0
796
473
473
1741
2026
2027
3
2250
6750
1
2250
2250
2
2250
4500
2
2250
4500
1
2250
2250
1
2250
2250
2
2250
4500
2
2250
4500
1
2250
2250
2022
0
0
597
0
1418
2015
2023
0
0
0
473
945
1418
2024
0
0
0
945
473
1418
2025
0
0
0
473
945
1418
2026
0
0
0
0
945
945
2027
0
0
0
0
473
473
Total
1000
0
1300
7
15750
12
27000
Table. 3.5. Dynamics of capital investments in exploration work on Nemchyusk site mln.
Index
Reinterpretation 2D seismic
2D seismic
3D seismic
Drilling of exploratory wells
Drilling of exploratory wells
Total
2017
40
0
0
0
0
40
2018
40
0
0
0
0
40
2019
0
0
497.5
473
0
970
2020
0
0
696.5
473
0
1169
Total
80
0
2587
3308
5670
11645
41
Capital investments for carrying out exploration programs on Nemchyusk site during the
period 2017-2027 gg. amount to 11,645 million rubles. (Table 3.5.), Including 2D seismic
reinterpretation - 80 million rubles, seismic exploration 3D work - 2587 million rubles, the
drilling of exploratory wells - 3308 million rubles, exploratory drilling - 5670 million rubles.
According to the results of the exploration work is planned to open the main field and two
satellites. The proportion of oil in the structure of C1 recoverable C1 + C2 to the end of the
exploration phase of 70%, which will allow for the entry into the main production in 2023, at the
satellite 1 - to 2025, at the satellite 2 - 2028 in g.
In the composition of capital investment in development Nemchyusk portion were
determined costs for drilling new wells, construction of fishing as well as to objects external to
transport oil pipeline.
Top full drilling facilities and their operation is preceded by the steps of searching for
deposits exploration and pilot production.
Planned exploration, including exploration and drilling exploratory wells (with complete
coring of productive deposits by conducting geophysical and hydrodynamic studies) will clarify
the geological structure of the deposits and their filtration-capacitance, energy and hydrodynamic
characteristics. Pilot operation will update the results of these studies.
Trial operation before the start of full-scale development drilling to be carried out again
exploration wells, since 2023, subject to confirmation of resources and the opening of the alleged
deposits. Next will be carried out putting into operation and in 2027 to 2032 years. yield and
maintain the design capacity of oil production.
The total volume of oil production in the area, taking into account Nemchyusk
assessment of the resource base, as well as due to the geological conditions of occurrence of the
producing formation, the technological capabilities of commercial production complex in the
period from 2027 on 2045. It amounts to 29.7 million tons.
Total capital investment in the development of Nemchyusk area for the period from 2017
to 2047 amounted to 62 469.4 million rubles. (Table 3.6.), Including exploration work - 10 268
rubles, drilling - 32 979.0 million rubles, construction of field facilities- 16 307 rubles, transport
infrastructure -. 250.0 million rub.
42
Table. 3.6. Dynamics of capital investment in development Nemchyusk portion mln.
Indicator / Year
Capital investments,
total
Exploration
Drilling of the wells
Construction of field
facilities
External transport
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
0.0
40.0
40.0
970.0
1 169.0
1 699.0
2 009.5
5 021.0
5 824.5
11 103.8
9 320.5
8 087.3
5 435.2
3 986.8
4 029.3
2 245.1
0.0
0.0
40.0
0.0
40.0
0.0
970.0
0.0
1 169.0
0.0
1 699.0
0.0
2 009.5
0.0
1 417.5
0.0
1 417.5
0.0
1 417.5
5 964.0
945.0
6 401.0
472.5
6 401.0
0.0
4 473.0
0.0
2 982.0
0.0
3 419.0
0.0
2 365.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3 567.0
4 351.8
3 789.8
2 474.0
1 273.6
1 162.3
1 004.4
630.8
320.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
62.5
125.0
62.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Continued Table 3.6
Indicator / Year
Capital investments, total
exploration
Drilling of the wells
construction of surface field facilities
external transport
2033
1 541.9
0.0
1 491.0
50.9
0.0
2034
437.0
0.0
437.0
0.0
0.0
2035
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2036
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2037
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2038
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2039
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2040
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2041
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2042
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2043
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2044
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2045
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2046
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2047
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
62 469.3
10 268.5
32 979.0
16 307.8
250.0
43
Drilling of the wells
In determining the capital investments in the drilling of wells based on the average cost of
construction per well, depending on the type and depth.
In the period from 2024 to 2032 years. 69 oil wells will be drilled on site Nemchyusk
(tab. 3.9). The depth of the productive layer is 2 to 250 m, the value 1 of drilling an oil well
mining m - 80 thousand. Rub. (Table 3.7.), The total cost of drilling of oil wells 1 - 180 million
rubles.
Value at the corresponding depth drilling the horizontal section was determined using the
increased cost factor to the vertical portion 2. In this case, the horizontal drainage costs 160 mln.
1 when the specific value m of penetration - 160 th RUB, the length of the retraction -1000 m.
The cost of drilling an injection well will be 180 million rubles. 1 when the specific value
m of penetration - 80 th RUB, the depth of the productive formation - 2250 m.
Technological development scheme provides horizontal wellbore drilled to 1000 m long.
In order to improve well productivity is assumed to conduct multistage fracturing (MSGRP)
every 100-150 m.
Estimation of cost of drilling of oil wells and field development, projected to the
discovery, carried out taking into account the experience of implementation of the relevant types
of work-subsoil companies in Eastern Siberia.
Table. 3.7. The unit cost of drilling of production wells in the area Nemchyusk
Index
The cost of drilling of oil wells, ths. Rub. / M
The cost of drilling of oil wells GS, ths. Rub. / M
MSGRP operation, ths. Rub. / Well.
Sidetracking operations, ths. Rub. / Well.
The cost of drilling of injection wells, ths. Rub. / M
Price
80
160
28000
69000
80
Total capital investment in the drilling of wells in Nemchyusk area was 33 933 million
rubles. (Table 3.8.), Including drilling production wells - 12 420 mln. rubles in the horizontal
wellbore drilling oil wells – 11 040 mln, drilling injection wells -3 780 mln.
44
Table. 3.8. Characteristic main collection portion wells Nemchyusk
Commissioning of drilling wells
years
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Total
Total
Extracting
0
16
17
17
12
8
9
6
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
90
0
12
13
13
9
6
7
5
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
Injecting
0
4
4
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
Gas
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fund of
wells from
the
beginning of
development
0
16
33
50
62
70
79
85
89
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
Production drilling, m
Total
including
horizontal
wellbore
0
39000
42250
42250
29250
19500
22750
16250
9750
3250
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
224250
0
12000
13000
13000
9000
6000
7000
5000
3000
1000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
69000
The annual average production
rate per well
Producing wells
Fund injection
wells at the end
of the year
Total
oil
gas
0
12
25
38
47
53
60
65
68
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
0
12
25
38
47
53
60
65
68
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
8
12
15
17
19
20
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
oil, m
/ day
liquid t / d
gas
tys.nm3
day
150.0
133.4
118.6
105.4
93.7
83.3
74.1
65.8
58.5
52.0
46.3
41.1
36.6
32.5
28.9
25.7
22.8
20.3
18.0
16.0
14.3
12.7
11.3
153.0
165.2
177.5
189.7
202.0
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
214.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
45
Table. 3.9. Dynamics of capital investment in development Nemchyusk portion mln.
Indicator / Year
Drilling of the wells
Drilling of oil wells
Drilling horizontal wellbore oil wells
MSGRP operation
Sidetracking operations
Drilling of injection wells
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2024
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2025
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2026
5 964.0
2 160.0
1 920.0
336.0
828.0
720.0
2027
6 401.0
2 340.0
2 080.0
364.0
897.0
720.0
2028
6 401.0
2 340.0
2 080.0
364.0
897.0
720.0
2029
4 473.0
1 620.0
1 440.0
252.0
621.0
540.0
2030
2 982.0
1 080.0
960.0
168.0
414.0
360.0
2031
3 419.0
1 260.0
1 120.0
196.0
483.0
360.0
2032
2 365.0
900.0
800.0
140.0
345.0
180.0
Continued Table. 3.9
Indicator / Year
Drilling of the wells
Drilling of oil wells
Drilling horizontal wellbore oil wells
MSGRP operation
Sidetracking operations
Drilling of injection wells
2033
1 491.0
540.0
480.0
84.0
207.0
180.0
2034
437.0
180.0
160.0
28.0
69.0
0.0
2035
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2036
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2037
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2038
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2039
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2040
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2041
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2042
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2043
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2044
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2045
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2046
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2047
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
33 933.0
12 420.0
11 040.0
1 932.0
4 761.0
3 780.0
46
Fitted facilities
In scheme of development Nemchyusk area accounted for the resettlement costs,
according to the "Rules of drawing up the design process documents on the development of oil
and gas deposits", approved by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation September 23,
1996 and the "Guidelines for the design of oil and gas fields" (annex to the MNR's orders Russia
of 21.03.2007, № 61).
Calculation of capital investments in the oilfield surface facilities was carried out on the
following parameters: oil-gathering networks, high-pressure water lines, overhead transmission
lines, roads, power supply, UPN, SPS, BPS with UPSV, PSP, a shift camp, a helicopter pad,
pipeline service travel, and other facilities costs. In the calculations of complex cost items used
in industry standards and regulations.
Input normals are calculated based on the average per 1 well, 1 bush 1 kilometer linear
arrangement of objects designed with aggregate construction cost (tab. 3.10).
Table. 3.10. Standards of capital investments in production and construction of facilities
Index
Equipment for the production wells, ths. Rub. / Well.
Equipment for injection wells, ths. Rub. / Well.
Dumping grounds bush, ths. Rub. / Well.
Construction of wells bushes, ths. Rub. / Well.
Oil gathering network (underground laying) d 219h8, ths. Rub. / Km
High-pressure water pipelines (underground laying) d 159h12, ths. Rub. / Km
HVL, ths. Rub. / Km
35 kV overhead line
6 kV overhead line
Highway, ths. Rub. / Km
infield road
Vneshnepromyslovye road
Power supply, ths. Rub. / Pcs.
UPN, KNU 2.0 million tons, th. Rub. / Object
CSN PWDU with 2.0 million tons, th. Rub. / Object
Phase 1, 1 start (CSN 0.5 Mill. T / g), th. Rub. / Ocherede construction
Queue 2, 1 start (CSN 2 Mill. T / g), th. Rub. / Ocherede construction
2 launcher (DNC-> PWDU, 2 Mill. T / g), th. Rub. / Ocherede construction
PRS in the area of NPS-10 (2.5 million. Year), ths. Rub. / Object
Shift camp to base fishing, ths. Rub. / Object
Helipad, ths. Rub. / Object
Pipeline service fare, ths. Rub. / Km
cost of
2500
1500
7203
8405
9 382,00
9 147,00
9 730,00
4 760,00
13 768,00
17 898.40
167143
2827569
1242855
976374
165841
100641
1269734
618000
16908
13768
Total capital investment in Nemchyusk arrangement made 18 624 million rubles. (Table.
3.11).
47
Table. 3.11. Dynamics of capital investments in improvements fishing Nemchyusk portion mln.
Indicator / Year
construction of surface field facilities
Equipment for the production wells
Equipment for injection wells
Stacking different color bases
Construction of wells bush
Oil gathering network (underground
laying)
High pressure conduits (underground
laying)
HVL
35 kV overhead line
6 kV overhead line
highway
infield road
Vneshnepromyslovye road
Power supply
UPN, KNU 2.0 million m
CSN with 2.0 million tons PWDU
Phase 1, 1 start (CSN 0.5 Mill. T /
d)
Queue 2, 1 start (CSN 2 Mill. T /
d)
2 launcher (DNC-> PWDU, 2
Mill. T / d)
CAP NPS-10 area
Shift camp to base fishing
Helipad
pipeline service travel
Transport
Construction of the pipeline
2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2016
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
3 567.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
4 351.8
30.0
6.0
115.2
134.5
2024
3 789.8
32.5
6.0
122.5
142.9
2025
2 474.0
32.5
6.0
122.5
142.9
2026
1 273.6
22.5
4.5
86.4
100.9
2027
1 162.3
15.0
3.0
57.6
67.2
2028
1 004.4
17.5
3.0
64.8
75.6
2029
630.8
12.5
1.5
43.2
50.4
2030
320.1
7.5
1.5
28.8
33.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
394.0
426.9
426.9
295.5
197.0
229.9
164.2
98.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
182.9
182.9
182.9
137.2
91.5
91.5
45.7
45.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
493.1
350.3
142.8
760.0
330.4
429.6
167.1
848.3
390.5
534.2
379.5
154.7
823.3
358.0
465.4
167.1
848.3
458.8
534.2
379.5
154.7
823.3
358.0
465.4
0.0
565.5
393.6
369.8
262.7
107.1
570.0
247.8
322.2
0.0
565.5
0.0
246.5
175.1
71.4
380.0
165.2
214.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
287.6
204.3
83.3
443.3
192.8
250.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
205.5
146.0
59.5
316.7
137.7
179.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
123.3
87.6
35.7
190.0
82.6
107.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
41.1
29.2
11.9
63.3
27.5
35.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
390.5
292.9
292.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
165.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
507.9
309.0
8.5
82.6
62.5
62.5
380.9
185.4
8.5
82.6
125.0
125.0
380.9
123.6
0.0
55.1
62.5
62.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
55.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48
Continued Table. 3.11
Indicator / Year
construction of surface field facilities
Equipment for the production wells
Equipment for injection wells
Stacking different color bases
Construction of wells bush
Oil gathering network (underground laying)
High pressure conduits (underground laying)
HVL
35 kV overhead line
6 kV overhead line
highway
infield road
Vneshnepromyslovye road
Power supply
UPN, KNU 2.0 million m
CSN with 2.0 million tons PWDU
Phase 1, 1 start (CSN 0.5 Mill. T / d)
Queue 2, 1 start (CSN 2 Mill. T / d)
2 launcher (DNC-> PWDU, 2 Mill. T / d)
CAP NPS-10 area
Shift camp to base fishing (200 pers.)
Helipad
pipeline service travel
Transport
Construction of the pipeline
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
50.9
2.5
0.0
7.2
8.4
32.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
203
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
203
7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
203
8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2039
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
204
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
204
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
204
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2043
2044
2045
Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18 624.8
172.5
31.5
648.3
756.5
2 265.8
960.4
2 835.2
2 014.1
821.1
4 370.0
1 900.0
2 470.0
334.3
2 827.6
1 242.9
976.4
165.8
100.6
1 269.7
618.0
16.9
275.4
250.0
250.0
49
Transport infrastructure
For the organization of oil supplies will require the construction of an oil pipeline branch
from Nemchyusk site to the main oil pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean" with the tie-in
area NPS №10. The length of the pipeline from the lateral portion will be 20 km. It can be
connected to the main pipeline both directly and through the field next to the path of the pipeline.
In the calculations laid pipeline lateral length of 20 km diameter - 219 mm, the capacity
to 2.5 million tons per year, specific cost-discharge pipeline - 12,500 RUR / km (Table 3.13..),
The total costs.. 187.5 million rubles.
Total capital investment in transport infrastructure amounted to RUB 187.5 million.
(Table. 3.12).
Table. 3.12. Indicators of transport infrastructure in the area Nemchyusk
Index
2022
2023
2024
Total
The length of the pipeline section to NPS №10 ESPO, km
10.0
5.0
20.0
The cost of building an oil pipeline from the site to the NPC
№10 ESPO pipeline, diam. 219-325 mm, mln.
5.0
62,50
125,00 62,50 187.5
Table. 3.13. The unit cost of the construction of transport infrastructure on the site Nemchyusk
Index
The cost of building an oil pipeline from the site to the NPC №10 ESPO
pipeline, diam. 325-400 mm, ths. Rub. / Km
cost of
12500
3.2.2. Operating costs
In this section, designed annual operating costs, including material costs, wages,
insurance premiums, hardware maintenance costs, regular payments for subsoil use,
depreciation, tax on extraction of mineral resources (oil), the cost of transportation of oil through
pipeline- branch to tie into the main ESPO.
Material costs for extraction of oil on the portion Nemchyusk calculated using standard
(120 rubles. / T), include basic and auxiliary materials directly involved in the process of oil
production, as well as power and fuel supplied from the (tab. 3.14).
Tabl.3.14. Standards operating costs of development portion Nemchyusk
Naming of expenditures
Material costs, rub. / T UU
Staff salaries, rub. / Person. per month
The number of basic industrial personnel, pers. / Well.
Maintenance of producing wells, one million rubles. / Well. in year
specification
120.0
80000
4
4.0
50
Costs for repair mln. / Well. in year
3.0
The length of the pipeline section to Nemchyusk NPS №10 ESPO, km
110.0
The rate of transportation of oil and condensate from the pipeline portion to
Nemchyusk ESPO, rub. / M * 100 km
27.41
labor costs of production and administrative personnel were calculated based on the
number and the average wage per employee - 960 thousand rubles.. (80 thousand. Rub. / Mo × 1
person. × 12 mo.). Given the specification of the number of workers 4 people per 1 well, the total
number of production personnel will be 436 people, the annual payroll - 418.6 million rubles.
Expenditures for capital repairs of wells required to maintain the base oil, determined in
accordance with the existing well stock, requiring at least wear the mandatory repairs. The
average unit cost of repair is 3.0 million rubles for 1 well per year.
Depreciation is calculated in accordance with Art. 256-259 "of the RF Tax Code (Part
Two)" from 05.08.2000 number 117-FZ as amended. Classification of fixed assets by
depreciation groups and the selection of the useful life of equipment is carried out in accordance
with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation " Classification of Fixed Assets
Included in Depreciation Groups" dated 01.01.2002 number 1, as amended.
Transport costs calculated based on the expected pattern of oil transportation. Oil from
Nemchyusk site in its entirety is available on the pipeline lateral length of 20 km to the NPC
№10 main oil pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean" and then to export. The tariff for
transportation of oil through laterals is 27.41 rub. / M * 100km.
Cost of production and sale of oil during development Nemchyusk section average over
the period 2015-2045 gg. will be 6803 rubles. / t.
The total operating costs amount to the development portion Nemchyusk 202 200 mln.
(Table. 3.15.).
51
Table. 3.15. Trends in the development of operating costs Nemchyusk portion mln.
Indicator / Year
Operating costs, total
material expenditures
Wages of production staff
insurance premiums
Expenses for the repair of
equipment
regular payments
Tax on mineral extraction (oil)
Depreciation
Transportation of oil and
condensate pipeline laterals
2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2016
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
1 294.5
37.8
49.9
15.1
2024
2 257.2
75.6
122.9
37.1
2025
3 175.5
164.9
195.8
59.1
2026
3 939.1
214.5
265.0
80.0
2027
4 452.0
247.4
311.0
93.9
2028
4 810.5
270.3
341.8
103.2
2029
5 170.5
273.2
376.3
113.6
2030
19 385.5
274.4
399.4
120.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
39.0
96.0
153.0
207.0
243.0
267.0
294.0
312.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.5
0.0
1 127.7
29.9
0.0
1 876.6
29.9
0.0
2 531.3
44.4
0.0
3 074.4
44.4
0.0
3 450.1
44.4
0.0
3 715.9
58.8
0.0
3 985.9
58.8
13 986.5
4 164.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
19.0
41.4
53.9
62.1
67.9
68.6
68.9
Continued Table. 3.15
Indicator / Year
Operating costs, total
material expenditures
Wages of production staff
insurance premiums
Expenses for the repair of equipment
regular payments
Tax on mineral extraction (oil)
Depreciation
Oil transportation pipeline laterals
2031
18914
263
415
125
324
59
13398
4265
66
2032
17754
240
419
126
327
59
12232
4291
60
2033
16299
213
419
126
327
59
10874
4227
54
2034
14984
190
419
126
327
59
9667
4149
48
2035
13769
169
419
126
327
59
8594
4033
42
2036
12657
150
419
126
327
59
7640
3899
38
2037
11452
133
419
126
327
59
6792
3562
33
2038
10287
118
419
126
327
59
6038
3169
thirty
2039
8851
105
419
126
327
59
5368
2420
26
2040
7586
94
419
126
327
59
4772
1766
24
2041
6500
83
419
126
327
59
4243
1222
21
2042
5642
74
419
126
327
59
3772
847
19
2043
4947
66
419
126
327
59
3353
581
17
2044
4296
58
419
126
327
59
2981
311
15
2045
3778
52
419
126
327
59
2650
132
13
Total
202200
3566
8337
2518
6513
1208
116362
62800
896
52
3.2.3. Taxes
Subsoil user pay all taxes, stipulated by the current Russian tax legislation, as amended,
entered into force at the time of the evaluation of economic efficiency. The list of taxes and
charges is presented in Table. 3.16.
The tax rate on mining (MET) taken on the basis of the Tax Code, the second part of
Chapter 26, Art. 342, n. 2.
In the period from 2017 to 2031 subsoil user be exempted from payment of tax on the
extraction of oil for 15 years. Since, in accordance with the law for the areas located wholly or
partly within the boundaries of Saha (Iakutiia), Irkutsk region, Krasnoyarsk region, until the
accumulated volume of oil 25 million tonnes in the subsoil and with the proviso that the term
subsurface area reserve development not greater than or equal to 10 years, 10 years for the
license for subsoil use for exploration and mining, not exceeding 15 years or equal to 15 years
for the license for subsoil use for geological and at the same time Learn the (prospecting,
exploration) and mining with the state registration of the corresponding date of the license for
subsoil use (claims 8 para 1 item 1 of Article. 342 of the Tax Code).
Since 2032 MET will be charged at the rate of 4852 rubles. 1 m from calculation 919
rubles. / T adjusted for a coefficient characterizing the dynamics of the world oil prices (Cp), the
coefficient characterizing the degree of depletion (Ap) and a coefficient characterizing the
volume of stocks (Ks).
Total tax deductions Nemchyusk development sites was 163,272 million rubles. (Table.
3.17.)
53
Table. 3.16. - Tax rates payable during the development of the site Nemchyusk
Type of tax
Taxes included in the cost
Tax on mineral extraction (oil) (in
the period from 2015 to 2029).
Tax on mineral extraction (oil) (in
the period from 2030 to 2045 years.)
insurance premiums
- Pension Fund
- Social Insurance Fund
- Health Insurance Fund
Insurance against accidents at work
Tax rate
0 rub. per ton. For the areas located wholly or partly within the boundaries
of Saha (Iakutiia) Irkutsk region, Krasnoyarsk edge, until the accumulated
volume of oil 25 million tonnes in the subsoil and with the proviso that the
term subsurface area reserve development does not exceed 10 years or
equal 10 years for a license for the right to use subsoil for mineral
exploration and mining and does not exceed 15 years or equal to 15 years
for the license for subsoil use at the same time for geological exploration
(prospecting, exploration) and mining ICs Copan with the state registration
date of the relevant license for subsoil use.
4852 rubles. per ton at the rate of 919 rubles. per tonne adjusted for factor
characterizing the dynamics of world oil prices (Cp), the coefficient
characterizing the degree of depletion (Ap) and the coefficient, which
characterizes the amount of inventory (Ks)
22% of the accumulated amount payroll (2013) (Claim 1 st.58.2 FL
24.07.2009 № FZ-212) 26% of the accumulated amount payroll labor (2014
g of a.) (Claims 1 n. 2 Art. 12 FZ 24.07.2009 № 212-FL)
2.9% of the calculated amount payroll (claims 2 to claim 2 v. 12 FZ
24.07.2009 № 212-FL)
5.1% of the calculated amount payroll (claims 3 to claim 2 v. 12 FZ
24.07.2009 № 212-FL)
7.4% of the gross amount of the wage fund (in accordance with the Order
of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation of
December 25, 2012 N 625n "Crude oil and natural gas" - code NACE 11.10
-. 30 class) (contribution rate determined in accordance with Art. 1 of the
Federal Law of December 14, 2015 N 362-FZ "on insurance rates for
compulsory social insurance against industrial accidents and occupational
diseases for 2016")
regular payments
- for the use of subsoil for the
purpose of search and evaluation
540 rubles per square meter (in accordance with the Federal Law of July 23,
2013 N 227-FZ of paragraph 2 of Article 43 of this Law, amendments shall
enter into force on January 1, 2016
- for the use of subsoil for the
20 000 rubles per square meter (in accordance with the Federal Law of July
purpose of exploration
23, 2013 N 227-FZ of paragraph 2 of Article 43 of this Law, amendments
shall enter into force on January 1, 2016
Taxes attributable to the financial result
Value added tax
18% of the value added is defined as the difference between the cost of
goods sold and cost of material costs charged to cost. When used in the
calculation of cost excluding VAT, the basis of calculation of the tax is the
revenue from sales. (Art. 164 of the Tax Code)
Tax on profits
20% of the income, reduced by the amount of expenses taken into account
for tax purposes, in terms of money. (Art. 284 of the Tax Code)
Property tax
2.2% of the average residual value assets. (Art. 380 of the Tax Code)
54
Table. 3.17. Dynamics of tax revenues from the development of Nemchyusk area, million rbl.
Indicator / Year
VAT payable
Taxes included in the cost
Tax on mineral extraction (oil)
insurance premiums
regular payments
Tax financed by gross profit
Property tax
Other taxes and fees
Tax on profits
Taxes million.
federal budget
Regional budget
local budget
Extra-budgetary funds
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2018
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2019
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2022
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2023
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2024
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2025
0.0
30.6
0.0
15.1
15.5
357.1
347.3
9.8
322.3
709.9
15.5
205.9
473.5
15.1
2026
0.0
67.0
0.0
37.1
29.9
572.8
553.2
19.6
739.2
1 379.0
29.9
350.5
961.4
37.1
2027
672.6
89.1
0.0
59.1
29.9
756.2
713.5
42.7
1 925.3
3 443.2
702.6
549.3
2 132.2
59.1
2028
1 580.7
124.4
0.0
80.0
44.4
880.7
825.1
55.5
2 422.3
5 008.1
1 625.1
654.8
2 648.2
80.0
2029
2 396.8
138.3
0.0
93.9
44.4
937.3
873.2
64.1
2 713.2
6 185.5
2 441.2
707.9
2 942.5
93.9
2030
2 950.3
147.6
0.0
103.2
44.4
949,2
879.2
70.0
2 924.5
6 971.6
2 994.7
732.0
3 141.7
103.2
2031
2 978.8
172.5
0.0
113.6
58.8
951.3
880.6
70.7
2 896.4
6 999.0
3 037.6
729.9
3 117.8
113.6
2032
3 202.4
11 273.4
11 094.0
120.6
58.8
919.1
848.0
71.1
614.0
16 008.9
14 355.2
485.4
1 047.6
120.6
55
Continued Table. 3.17
Indicator / Year
VAT payable
Taxes included in the cost
Tax on mineral extraction (oil)
insurance premiums
regular payments
Tax financed by gross profit
Property tax
Other taxes and fees
Tax on profits
Taxes million.
federal budget
Regional budget
local budget
Extra-budgetary funds
2033
3225
10811
10627
125
59
856
788
68
493
15384
13910
443
905
125
2034
3092
9887
9702
126
59
765
703
62
326
14071
12853
384
707
126
2035
2808
8810
8625
126
59
666
610
55
178
12462
11492
323
521
126
2036
2496
7853
7668
126
59
568
519
49
64
10982
10223
266
366
126
2027
2219
7002
6817
126
59
474
430
44
0
9695
9095
215
259
126
2038
1973
6246
6060
126
59
383
345
39
0
8602
8092
172
211
126
2039
1754
5573
5388
126
59
301
266
35
0
7628
7201
133
168
126
2040
1559
4975
4790
126
59
227
196
31
0
6761
6408
98
129
126
2041
1386
4443
4258
126
59
171
143
27
0
6000
5703
72
99
126
2042
1232
3971
3785
126
59
129
104
24
24
5356
5077
55
98
126
2043
1096
3551
3365
126
59
99
77
22
73
4819
4520
46
126
126
2044
974
3177
2992
126
59
78
59
19
95
4324
4025
39
134
126
2045
866
2845
2660
126
59
63
46
17
99
3873
3584
33
129
126
2046
770
2550
2365
126
59
54
39
15
109
3483
3193
31
133
126
2047
684
2287
2102
126
59
50
36
13
105
3126
2845
29
126
126
Total
39917
96024
92298
2518
1208
11208
10284
924
16123
163272
133423
6754
20576
2518
56
3.3. Economic evaluation of the effectiveness of development Nemchyusk license area
in the Irkutsk Region
With calculations of technical and economic indicators of production and sales of oil
from Nemchyusk area, were taken into account mining and geological, technological and
marketing features of the development of oil and gas in Eastern Siberia.
The price parameters and cost of capital construction costs and running costs calculated
in the ruble equivalent, in constant prices in 2017, taking into account the current state of the
domestic market of the Irkutsk Region and in accordance with the provisions of the Federal
Service for Tariffs of the Russian Federation in the field of regulation of tariffs of natural
monopolies in the sphere of oil transportation.
Estimated sales price at the beginning of period was 131.7 dollars. / M and obtained by
Netback, price indicators and the value of the export export duties are shown in Table. 3.18.
Table. 3.18. Calculation of the price of oil by Netback as of 19/01/2016, the
Value
Index
Monitoring crude oil prices mark "Urals" in the
global crude oil markets (Mediterranean and
Rotterdam) for the period from November 15 to
January 14, 2016 *
Rates of export customs duties on crude oil for
the period from 1 to January 31, 2016
The dollar exchange rate as of 10.05.2017, rubles.
/ dollar.
Network tariff for services of OJSC "AK"
Transneft "for oil transportation through pipelines
along the routes, which include the transportation
of oil through the pipeline system" Eastern
Siberia - Pacific Ocean ", for export through the
port of Kozmino
Rate tariff for OJSC "AK" Transneft "for
transshipment of oil through the main pipeline
system in the port of Kozmino
The price of oil varieties VSPO (Netback)
standard export duty
237.0
USD. / t
32.5
dollars. / bbl.
73.3
0.0
58.6
USD. / t
rub. / dollar.
2365.9
rub. / t
30.1
USD. / t
15354.0
rub. / 100 m
195.2
131.7
18.0
Units
preferential export
duty
USD. / 100 m
205.0
28.1
USD. / t
dollars. / bbl.
Sources:
*Information Ministry of Economic Development on 21 December 2015 ". About the export customs duties on
crude oil and certain categories of goods produced from oil, for the period from 1 to 31 January 2016 '
** Order of the Federal Tariff Service dated 27 November 2014 N 275-e / 1 "on the establishment of tariffs for
services of OJSC" AK "Transneft" for oil transportation via main pipelines "
discounted cash flow rate taken at 12%, which leads to high reliability calculations as
takes into account the risk that the inflation rate and the refinancing rate of the Central Bank in
57
case of its use by the State as an instrument of monetary and credit policy, as well as possible
changes in exchange rates.
The average exchange rate of the US dollar - 58.6 rubles.
The effectiveness of development Nemchyusk site was assessed using a system of
indicators that reflect the activities of the company with regard to the market economy.
Calculation of efficiency of investments in land development carried out in accordance with the
"Guidelines on the assessment of economic efficiency of investment projects (Second Edition)",
approved by the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance and the State Committee for
Construction, Architecture and Housing Policy N BK 477 21.06 .1999 Mr.
To evaluate the effectiveness, according to the recommendations, the following indicators
are used:
- discounted cash flow (NPV);
- Internal rate of return on investments (IRR);
- profitability index (PI);
- payback period, taking into account the discount and excluding discounting;
- State revenue (taxes and fees earmarked in the budget and extra-budgetary funds).
According to calculations made Nemchyusk development section at this flowsheet
development, transport of oil through the newly created transport infrastructure, and its
implementation of end consumers are cost effective.
NPV will be 4 346 million rubles, IRR -. 17,4%, payback period from the beginning of
exploration, taking into account the discount - 16 years, payback period from the beginning of
exploration without taking into account the discount - 13 years, the profitability index - 1.2
(Table 3.19 - 3.20)
58
Table. 3.19. The dynamics of technical and economic indicators of development Nemchyusk site
Indicator / Year
Oil, million tons
Revenue, RUR mln.
Capital investments, mln.
exploration
Drilling of the wells
construction of surface field
facilities
Transport
Operating costs, million rubles.
Taxes, million rubles.
federal budget
Regional budget
local budget
Extra-budgetary funds
Income before income taxes,
million rubles.
Income tax mln.
Net income, mln.
CF, mln.
CCF, mln.
NPV, mln.
SNPV, mln.
IRR,%
2015
0.0
0
0
0
0
2016
0.0
0
40
40
0
2017
0.0
0
40
40
0
2018
0.0
0
970
970
0
2019
0.0
0
1169
1169
0
2020
0.0
0
1741
1741
0
2021
0.0
0
2015
2015
0
2022
0.0
0
5047
1418
0
2023
0.3
3263
5894
1418
0
2024
0.6
6526
11234
1418
5964
2025
1.4
14231
9820
945
6401
2026
1.8
18512
8147
473
6401
2027
2.1
21352
5635
0
4473
2028
2.3
23333
3986
0
2982
2029
2.3
23583
4050
0
3419
2030
2.3
23684
2685
0
2365
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3567
4352
3790
2474
1274
1162
1004
631
320
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
1294
710
15
206
473
15
63
2257
1379
thirty
351
961
37
0
3176
3443
703
549
2132
59
0
3939
5008
1625
655
2648
80
0
4452
6186
2441
708
2943
94
0
4810
6972
2995
732
3142
103
0
5171
6999
3038
730
3118
114
0
16493
16009
14355
485
1048
121
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1611
3696
9626
12112
13566
14623
14482
3070
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
0
-40
-40
-36
-36
-
0
0
-40
-80
-32
-68
-
0
0
-970
-1050
-690
-758
-
0
0
-1169
-2219
-743
-1501
-
0
0
-1741
-3960
-988
-2489
-
0
0
-2015
-5975
-1021
-3509
-
0
0
-5047
-11,021
-2283
-5792
-
322
1289
-3478
-14,499
-1405
-7197
-
739
2957
-6400
-20,899
-2308
-9505
-
1925
7701
412
-20,487
133
-9372
-
2422
9689
4617
-15,870
1327
-8045
-
2713
10853
8668
-7203
2225
-5820
-
2925
11698
11428
4225
2619
-3201
3.6%
2896
11586
11522
15746
2358
-844
10,2%
614
2456
3936
19682
719
-125
11,8%
59
Continued Table. 3.19
Indicator / Year
Oil, million tons
Revenue, RUR mln.
Capital investments, mln.
exploration
Drilling of the wells
construction of surface
field facilities
Transport
Operating costs, million
rubles.
Taxes, million rubles.
federal budget
Regional budget
local budget
Extra-budgetary funds
Income before income
taxes, million rubles.
Income tax mln.
Net income, mln.
CF, mln.
CCF, mln.
NPV, mln.
SNPV, mln.
IRR,%
2031
2.2
22687
1542
0
1491
2032
2.0
20713
437
0
437
2033
1.8
18414
0
0
0
2034
1.6
16370
0
0
0
2035
1.4
14553
0
0
0
2036
1.2
12938
0
0
0
2037
1.1
11502
0
0
0
2038
1.0
10225
0
0
0
2039
0.9
9090
0
0
0
2040
0.8
8082
0
0
0
2041
0.7
7185
0
0
0
2042
0.6
6387
0
0
0
2043
0.5
5678
0
0
0
2044
0.5
5048
0
0
0
2045
0.4
4488
0
0
0
Total
thirty
307843
64452
11645
33933
51
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18625
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
250
16144
15225
14050
12985
11991
11077
10047
9038
7741
6599
5623
4862
4254
3679
3230
178136
15384
13910
443
905
125
14071
12853
384
707
126
12462
11492
323
521
126
10982
10223
266
366
126
9695
9095
215
259
126
8602
8092
172
211
126
7628
7201
133
168
126
6761
6408
98
129
126
6000
5703
72
99
126
5356
5077
55
98
126
4819
4520
46
126
126
4324
4025
39
134
126
3873
3584
33
129
126
3483
3193
31
133
126
3126
2845
29
126
126
163272
133423
6754
20576
2518
2463
1631
890
321
0
0
0
0
0
122
367
473
495
544
524
80616
493
1970
4693
24375
766
641
13,2%
326
1305
5159
29534
751
1392
14,3%
178
712
4939
34474
642
2034
15,2%
64
257
4405
38879
511
2546
15,8%
0
0
4033
42912
418
2964
16,3%
0
0
3899
46810
361
3325
16,6%
0
0
3562
50372
294
3619
16,9%
0
0
3169
53542
234
3853
17,1%
0
0
2420
55962
159
4013
17,2%
24
97
1863
57824
110
4122
17,3%
73
294
1516
59341
80
4202
17,3%
95
379
1225
60566
57
4259
17,3%
99
396
977
61543
41
4300
17,4%
109
435
746
62290
28
4328
17,4%
105
419
551
62840
18
4346
17,4%
16123
64493
62840
4346
60
Table. 3.20. Summary of technical and economic parameters of development Nemchyusk site
Index
Oil, million tons
Revenue, RUR mln.
Capital investments, mln.
Exploration
Drilling of the wells
Construction of surface field facilities
Transport
Operating costs, million rubles.
Taxes, million rubles.
Federal budget
Regional budget
Local budget
Extra-budgetary funds
Income before income taxes, million rubles.
Income tax mln.
Net income, mln.
CF, mln.
NPV, mln.
IRR,%
Yield index units.
Payback period from the beginning of exploration (including discount)
Payback period from the beginning of exploration (excluding discount)
The payback period from the beginning of the development (including the discount)
The payback period from the beginning of development (without discounting)
Value
29.72
307 843.2
64 452.3
11 644.5
33 933.0
18 624.8
250.0
178 135.8
163 271.8
133 423.2
6 754.4
20 576.5
2 517.7
80 615.7
16 123.1
64 492.5
62 840.4
4 346.4
17,4%
1.2
16.0
13.0
8.0
5.0
61
3.4. Sensitivity analysis evaluation of macro factors of the effectiveness Nemchyusk
license area in Irkutsk Region
To manage the risks and uncertainties in the development of Nemchyusk plot was carried
out a sensitivity analysis, which tracks the degree of influence on the most important
performance criteria - the net present value and internal rate of return - changes in key
parameters of input data:
- investment (capital investment);
- operating costs;
- the selling price of oil;
- the volume of commodity output.
The boundaries of the original data variation during development Nemchyusk portion,
whose influence on the performance criteria required to determine the amount to a range from
50% to 150%, changing step - 10%.
sensitivity analysis results of performance indicators to change the main disturbing factors
are shown in Table. 3.21, in Fig. 3.2 - 3.3.
Sensitivity analysis showed that when the operating costs and the discount rate 50%
project continues to be effective. And a change of capital investments by 25% and crude oil
prices on 20% of the project becomes profitable.
62
Table. 3.21. Analysis of changes of financial indicators (NPV, IRR) under the influence of disturbing factors Nemchyusk portion
NPV, IRR / Modifying
-50%
Capital investments, mln.
NPV, million dollars.
32226
14249
IRR,%
40%
Discounted payback period from the beginning of exploration,
years
profitability index
eleve
n
eleve
n
2.3
Operating costs, USD million.
89068
NPV, million dollars.
IRR,%
Payback period from the beginning of the project, years
Discounted payback period from the beginning of the project, years
profitability index
13654
25%
13
14
1.6
The price of crude oil
NPV, million dollars.
5179
-7020
The payback period from the beginning of exploration, years
-20%
thirty%
capital investment
38671
45117
51562
12286
10268
8250
-40%
0%
10%
20%
thirty%
40%
50%
58007
6266
64452
4346
70898
2472
77343
641
83788
-1147
eleven
%
90233
-2891
96678
-4636
9%
8%
34%
28%
24%
20%
17%
15%
13%
eleven
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
16
17
12
13
13
14
16
19
23
31
31
31
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
6101
19%
13
15
1.3
17813
6
4346
17%
13
16
1.2
19595
0
2978
16%
13
17
1.1
21376
3
2091
15%
13
19
1.1
24939
0
1004
13%
14
21
1.0
26720
4
460
13%
14
23
1.0
9323
1394
10358
4346
11394
7724
12430
11235
13466
14746
15538
21768
14%
17%
21%
24%
27%
14
20
1.1
13
16
1.2
13
14
1.4
12
13
1.5
12
13
1.7
14502
18257
thirty
%
12
13
1.8
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
4346
17%
13
3180
17%
13
2212
17%
13
1408
17%
13
741
17%
13
190
17%
13
1.9
1.7
1.5
operating costs
10688
124695 142509
2
11766
9878
7989
24%
22%
21%
13
13
13
14
14
14
1.5
1.5
1.4
The price of crude oil
6215
7251
8287
-4950
-2880
-861
eleven
6%
8%
%
19
17
14
31
31
31
0.8
0.9
1.0
Discount rate
IRR,%
4%
Payback period from the beginning of the project, years
Discounted payback period from the beginning of the project, years
profitability index
21
31
0.7
Discount rate, %
7%
8%
9%
10%
14862
17%
13
11914
17%
13
9468
17%
13
7437
17%
13
NPV, million dollars.
IRR,%
Payback period from the beginning of the project, years
-10%
160322
eleven
%
5749
17%
13
231577
1547
14%
14
20
1.1
32%
12
12
2.0
63
25000
21768
20000
18257
млн долл.
15000
14862
14249
13654
10000
11914
11766
12286
9878
9468 7989
10268
8250
7437
5000
14746
11235
6101
6266
5749
7724
4346
1394
2472
-861
0
2978
3180
2212
641
2091
1547
1004
1408
460
741
190
-2880
-1147
-4950
-5000
-2891
-4636
-7020
-10000
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Fig. 3.2. NPV change under the influence of disturbing Nemchyusk portion
64
45%
40%
40%
35%
34%
32%
30%
25%
28%
25%
17%
27%
24%
24%
24%
22%
20%
15%
30%
17%
17%
21%
17%
20%
19%
17%
14%
17%
21%
17%
16%
15%
11%
10%
17%
15%
17%
14%
13%
17%
13%
13%
11%
8%
6%
5%
17%
9%
8%
4%
0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Fig. 3.3. IRR change under the influence of disturbing factors Nemchyusk portion
65
3.5. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on oil prices in the world market options
Given the high degree of uncertainty of the price situation on the world oil market, the
rationale for the development of a promising area Nemchyusk laid three scenarios in oil prices
the world market: scenario 1 - $ 30 / bbl, scenario 2 - $ 50 / bbl, scenario 3 - 75 dollars. / bbl and
scenario 4 – 100$/ bbl.
To estimate exchange rate according to oil price scenatios, used a regression, connecting
oil price with USD exchange rate. Data is obtained from CB RF. Regression model includes
comparing of an oil price and USD exchange rate indexex, and also growth rates of this values
were compared. This model shows a high correlation of this variables, since 2014, when Russian
Central Bank made a floating Ruble exchange rate, so the model allows to estimate values of
Ruble exchange rate. Regressions are illustrated in figures 3.5.1 and 3.5.2.
1 40
1 20
80
60
Ura ls , $/ba r
1 00
f(x) = -1,91x + 170,87
R ² = 0,96
40
20
0
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
R ur/$
Fig. 3.5.1 Correlation between USD exchange rate and Urals price
0 , 1 0 , 05
f(x) = -0,9x + 0
R ² = 0,75
0 ,25
0 ,2
0 , 15
0 ,1
0 ,05
0
0 - 0,0 5 - 0, 1 - 0, 1 5 - 0, 2 -0, 2 5
-0, 0 5
-0, 1
-0, 1 5
g rowth rate R ur/$
Ura ls , $/ba r
Fig. 3.5.2 Correlation between growth rate of USD exchange rate and Urals price
66
The level of international oil prices has a significant impact on changes in other
macroeconomic indicators:
- the dynamics of the national currency against the US dollar;
- the final tax rate on mining;
- rates of export duties.
The dependence of the tax on extraction of mineral resources on the level of world oil
prices and as a result of the dollar, is manifested through coefficient (Cp), which takes into
account the dynamics of world oil prices and the national currency (tab. 3.22).
Table. 3.22. Calculation of the final tax rate on mining
The price
The price of
The total
The total
The share
of oil on the
The
oil on the
USD
rate of
rate of
of
domestic
base
world
course.,
mineral
mineral
severance
market
MET
Cp *
market,
rub. /
extraction extraction tax to the
(Netback),
rate,
dollars. /
dollar.
tax, rub. / tax dollars.
price
dollars. /
rub. / T
Bbl.
T
/ Bbl.
Netback,%
Bbl.
Scenario 1
19.2
919.0
74
4.25
3906
6.8
35%
Scenario 2
30.1
919.0
64
8.58
7887
16.9
56%
919.0
Scenario 3
43.1
50
11.49
10559
27.1
63%
919.0
Scenario 4
60.2
32
12.66
15764
33.8
67%
Cp * = (L - 15) x R / 261
At the level of world oil prices of $ 30 / bbl, price realization, calculated Netback methods
was 19.2 USD / barrel, and the dollar -... 74 rubles, so the basic rate of mineral extraction tax 919
rubles / t, the final rate. tax will be 3906 rubles. / t, or 35% of the selling price.
With the rise of global oil prices has been increasing the tax burden on the mining sector as
well, when the world price of 50 dollars. / Bbl., The share of severance tax in the selling price
will be 56%, and at 75 dollars. / Bbl. - 63%.
Just formula for calculating the rate of export customs went for oil contains a measure of
the current level of world oil prices (tab. 3.23).
67
Table. 3.23. Calculation of export duty
The price of
The price
oil on the
of oil on
domestic
The export
the world
market
duty, USD.
market,
(Netback),
/T
dollars. /
dollars. /
Bbl.
Bbl.
Scenario 1
19.2
44.5
Scenario 2
30.1
105.9
Scenario 3
43.1
182.5
Scenario 4
60.2
211,8
EP * = 4 + 0.42 * (F-25)
USD
course.,
rub. /
dollar.
The export
duty, rub. /
T
The export
duty,
dollars. /
Bbl.
74
64
50
32
3293
6777.6
9125
13455.2
6.1
14.5
25
29
The share
of export
tax in the
price of oil
on the
world
market,%
20%
29%
33%
37%
The tax burden on export duty increases with the rise in world market prices. Thus, when
the price of oil on the world market at the level of 30 dollars. / Bbl. the share of export duties in
the world price is 20%, while the price of 50 dollars. / bbl. - 29%, at $ 75 / bbl - 33%, and at 100
$/bbl – 37%
Analysis of the impact of the oil world prices for key macroeconomic indicators,
traditionally run inside the project showed that the economic efficiency of development
Nemchyusk promising area is very sensitive to changes in the national currency. The slightest
change it entails a significant net present value adjustment.
68
Table. 3.24. The main technical and economic indicators of development
Nemchyusk area depending on the level of world oil prices
Indicators
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
29.72
29.72
29.72
29.72
Revenue, RUR mln.
308 885.8
417 937.0
467 496.5
537 496.5
Capital investments, mln.
exploration
64 452.3
64 452.3
64 452.3
64 452.3
Oil, million tons
Scenario 1
11 644.5
11 644.5
11 644.5
11 644.5
Drilling of the wells
33 933.0
33 933.0
33 933.0
33 933.0
construction of surface field facilities
18 624.8
18 624.8
18 624.8
18 624.8
Transport
250.0
250.0
250.0
250.0
Operating costs, million rubles.
178 135.8
178 135.8
178 135.8
178 135.8
Taxes, million rubles.
federal budget
163 572.6
198 152.5
214 037.3
133 577.1
149 678.6
156 996.1
235 097.1
167 953.8
Regional budget
6 768.8
8 583.9
9 425.8
10 076.9
local budget
20 709.0
37 372.2
45 097.7
50 786.6
Extra-budgetary funds
2 517.7
2 517.7
2 517.7
2 517.7
81 334.4
090.5 172
214 183.9
253 974.8
16 266.9
34 418.1
42 836.8
55 856.8
Income before income taxes, million rubles.
Income tax mln.
Net income, mln.
65 067.5
137 672.4
171 347.1
199 638.4
CF, mln.
63 415.4
136 020.3
169 695.0
189 234.3
NPV, mln.
4 453.8
17,5%
16 769.4
28,7%
22 421.8
32,7%
30 876,2
1.2
1.8
2.0
2.1
16.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
8.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
IRR,%
Yield index units.
Payback period from the beginning of
exploration (including discount)
The payback period from the beginning of
the development (including the discount)
27,6%
69
3.6. Estimation of MET and Customs duty influence on project's investment
attractiveness.
As shown before, economic effectiveness highly depends on USD exchange rate and,
consequently on MET and Customs duty.
Next two figures illustrate the dynamics of MET and Customs duty share in World's market
Part of MET in Urals price, %
oil price. Fig 3.6.1 and 3.6.2
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
Oil Price, Urals, $./bbl.
100
120
Part of Customs payments in Urals price, %
Fig 3.6.1 dynamics of MET share in World's market oil price.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
50
100
Oil Price, Urals, $./bbl.
Fig 3.6.2 dynamics of Customs duty share in World's market oil price.
Calculations have shown that with a decrease in oil prices on the world market, the tax
burden on subsoil contracts and development of hydrocarbon resources projects become more
attractive, and vice versa, as the rise in oil world prices increase and the tax burden. The
effectiveness of field development projects for subsoil users increases to a so-called "inflection
70
point", when the price of oil on the world market falls to the level of 40-45 dollars. / Bbl. A
further decline in oil prices, taking into account the parameters of the current tax system does not
allow the subsoil users pay for investments in exploration and field development and the
effectiveness of the project begins to decline. Fig 3.6.3
800000
0,25
700000
0,20
600000
500000
0,15
400000
0,10
300000
200000
0,05
100000
0
0,00
Scenario 1, 30$/bbl
Scenario 2, 50$/bbl
Capital Investments, mln. Rub
Scenario 3, 75$/bbl
MET + Customs, mln. Rub
Scenario 4, 100$/bbl
IRR, %
Fig 3.6.3 The connection of investment attractiveness, investments and tax and customs
payments.
From the point of view of the state, the efficiency of mineral resources development
projects, expressed as the sum paid by the subsoil user tax (fiscal efficiency) is reduced after the
fall in oil prices, since the tax burden on companies is weakening.
Thus, the features of modern tax system open for subsoil users "window of opportunity" investments in the development of hydrocarbon reserves and resources become more efficient at
the stage of decline in world oil prices than at the stage of their growth.
Proposals for improvement of tax legislation
The dependence of the mineral extraction tax and export duty paid to the federal budget
from changes in world oil prices causes a high risk of destabilization of the country's economic
development parameters and triggers the need for urgent decisions in case of change of price
71
conjuncture in the world markets. Therefore, one of the areas of the reform of fiscal policy
should be, firstly, the exception in world oil prices and the dollar exchange rate of the algorithm
for calculating the tax on extraction of minerals. Secondly, the revision of the parameters of "tax
maneuver" in the direction of the priority of tax incentives for domestic production and sale of
hydrocarbons market.
The second direction of improvement of tax legislation, it is necessary to continue the
policy to stimulate oil production in promising regions through the development and refinement
of the parameters already accepted benefits:
Perfection of the mechanism of the zero rate of tax on the extraction of minerals in terms of
changes in the period of its use - from the moment of issue of the license, and since the
beginning of the industrial development and production of hydrocarbons;
The application of a reduced rate of export customs duty for the entire volume of oil fields
in Eastern Siberia and Far East until they reach the subsurface user payback of capital
investments.
72
68
CONCLUSION
Current theoretical and practical issues of research is to assess the economic
attractiveness and feasibility of involvement has not yet entered into the development of
hydrocarbon reserves. Of greatest interest to the oil and gas industry are promising areas of
mineral resources in Eastern Siberia, which made the main oil production growth in the country
as a whole.
In research work, in accordance with the intended purpose, the author has made the
economic evaluation of the development of hydrocarbon resources in Eastern Siberia Example
Nemchyusk license portion in Irkutsk region.
To achieve this goal, the author in the following problems were solved: a forecast growth
stocks on Nemchyusk license area; estimated capital investments and operating costs in the
development Nemchyusk license area; sensitivity analysis results of the evaluation of efficiency
of development Nemchyusk license area; benefit analysis carried out depending on the price of
oil on the world market option.
To solve the problems, the author shows the sequence (algorithm) Economic evaluation of
hydrocarbon resources for calculations to substantiate the economic efficiency of development
prospective subsurface area that includes four main blocks: production and economic model,
technical-economical model, financial model, a sensitivity analysis .
On the basis of calculations carried out, it was to assess the level of investment required for
the integrated development Nemchyusk license area, which is 64 452.3 mln rubles. It is shown
that in the investments the prevalence of costs in drilling (33 933.0 mln. Or 53%) and
construction of fishing (18 624,8 mln rubles., Or 29%).
Calculations have shown that Nemchuysk license area is cost-effective because the NPV
will be 4 346 million rubles, IRR -. 17,4%, payback period from the beginning of exploration,
taking into account the discount - 16 years, payback period from the beginning of exploration
without taking into account the discount - 13 years, profitability index - 1.2.
a sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of the results, which showed that
a change in operating costs and the discount rate by 50% the project continues to be effective.
And a change of capital investments by 25% and crude oil prices on 20% of the project goes into
the category of cost-effective.
To assess the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the efficiency of project
development Nemchuysk plot was carried out andnalysis impact of international oil prices on the
key performance indicators of investment attractiveness of the project, which showed that the
cost-effectiveness of long-term development Nemchuysk area sensitive to changes in the
national currency.
69
With the rise of global oil prices has been increasing the tax burden on the mining sector as
well, when the world price of 50 dollars. / Bbl., The share of severance tax in the selling price
will be 56%, and at 75 dollars. / Bbl. - 63%.
The tax burden on export duty increases with the rise in world market prices. Thus, when
the price of oil on the world market at the level of 30 dollars. / Bbl. the share of export duties in
the world price is 20%, while the price of 50 dollars. / bbl. - 29%, at $ 75 / bbl.. - 33%, at $ 100 /
bbl - 37%.
Calculated and shown, that the features of modern tax system open for subsoil users
"window of opportunity" - investments in the development of hydrocarbon reserves and
resources become more efficient at the stage of decline in world oil prices than at the stage of
their growth.
70
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