Sao Paulo, February 18th, 2009 Evolution of Telecommunications In the World of Ecosystems | Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center | [email protected] | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center SOMMARIO The shift: from Value Chains to Ecosystems Technology Evolution and its Impact on Business Infrastructures towards a Utilities Paradigm Me and my cell phone in the next decade A few examples: - Internet with things - The Digital Home - Digital Shadow - Cloud Computing - Enterprise Networks 1 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS …2000 EFFICIENCY Internal Innovation Strong Control of Depl. Innovation Efficiency to compete Competition pushes value at the end client VALUE 2 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS 2000 … NOW VALUE Strong Control of Depl. Shared Control on Root Scale advantage Innovation Concurrent Innovation Competition is on price PERCEIVED VALUE 3 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS NOW … Next Decade Out of field Innovation VALUE Marginal-No Control of Depl. Mashed Value Creation Innovation Intermediation Advantage Competition is on biz Models PERCEIVED VALUE 4 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center THE SMALL WORLD Tech Ambient Market n(k) Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 k 13 15 17 19 21 5 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center BIO vs TECHNO – ECONOMIC ECOSYSTEM Evolution Random + Selection Env.Share + variations Success Dynamic Equilibrium Internal Competition New Configurations Creativity + Market Market share + release Dynamic Equilibrium External Competition New Value Chains 6 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center BIO vs TECHNO – ECONOMIC ECOSYSTEM Speciation Food Chains Discontinuity Displacement Cross Feedback Value Chains Local Optimum No Return thresholds Advantage of the small Energy Consumption Production Process Economic Efficiency 7 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET 2020 – MY VISION Social Networks Usage Environment Production Distribution Environment Environment Balkanisation Management Institutionalised Opinion Market Place INTERNET 2020 Ambient Mediated Communications 8 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET 2020 – MY VISION 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Internet grows from being a distribution chain to include production and usage Innovation is the key competitive differentiator for enterprises (cost fades) 400M+ new labour force 90%+ ouside of Europe: leveraging is crucial Social networks aggregate on a cultural base; Internet is neutral, not services and info Social networks fragment culture and markets, may reshape democracy by influence EUROPEAN PLATFORM INTERNET 2020 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Bandwidth is no longer a constraint, connectivity is among data, not nodes Communications occurr between and within ambient in a seamless way Everything is connected via Internet, objects and people mediated by ambient/profile 90%+ of information required is locally available Terminals are hosts for interfaces, information and applications, enable local connect. 9 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS 2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded 10+ TB by 2012, in the home Information is here 10 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS 2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded 10+ TB by 2012, in the home Information is here Equip.Pr. RIzzoli Priv.Reg. OceanSt Telcos NtwArch Devices UpStrm Trust.P. Distr.Inf. Cloud C. Distr.Ch Connect. 3D.Etch Polymer Olograph HMR Dig.Shw NanoSt 11 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS 2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded 10+ TB by 2012, in the home Information is here 20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2 Connected Objects 12 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS 1 Gbps in every home 10 Mbps everywhere Bandwidth is no longer a constraint Terminals create local networks Store and forward managed by the terminal Terminals get the upper hand (on the network) 13 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS 4/8 k screens - ultra HD Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn. Being there, presence, immersion Holographic display Information funnelling Ambient Creation 14 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS Variety of sensors Flexibility, integration, local data processing Context awareness Micro actuators Wireless connection, local awareness Autonomic Systems 15 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS Information Tagging, API Open Architectures, Platforms Third party service creation Statistical data processing, metadata Semantics structures Value shifts from information to relations 16 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS Image Recognition Image understanding Third party service components NanoMaterials, Bio-Computation Integration in the production processes Responsive objects 17 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS Localization Beyond Shannon Emotional Computation Smart Materials Beyond Turing Understanding Privacy MetaMaterials Massive distrib. Comp. Supercrunchers Autonomic Systems Massive distrib. Storage BioEngineering Cloud Computing Viral Networks MicroMachinery Collective Intelligence Security DNA Sequencers Machine Learning Mechatronics Avatar Social Behaviour Alternative energy src. Real time rendering Social Networking Scavenging 18 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model BSS – OSS PLATFORM Broadband Area CRM DATA WAREHOUSE BILLING ERP SERVICE DELIVERY SERVICE ASSURANCE TRAFFIC & USAGE NETWORK MANAGEMENT CUSTOMER DATA BASE WORK FORCE MANAGEMENT NETWORK NEUTRAL EM NETWORK DATA BASE PERSONAL COMMUNICATION PLATFORM P2P VIDEO OVER IP VOIP MSG IMS HSS DIRECTORY MSG IP-DSLAM (4.000) ADSL2+ ( ˜10Mbit/s) // // // MULTIMEDIA PLATFORM // C2P WEB BBAN CN FTTB RAN CN GPON OPTICAL PACKET BACKBONE // FTTC VDSL2 ( 50Mbit/s ) IP- MSAN (ONU) FTTH / B ( 100Mbit/s ) DVB-H ? CONTENT ENGINE/DRM MUSIC VIDEO GAMES ICT SERVICES PLATFORM STORAGE OPTICAL PACKET METRO IPTV B2B+C MULTISERVICE EDGE NODE (POP) MANAGED MESSAGING SERVICES COLLABORATION APPLICATIONS SOA UTILITY COMPUTING STORAGE ON DEMAND MESSAGE STORE DISASTER RECOVERY Service Centers Ultra Broadband Area 19 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model 20 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model 21 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center If we are lucky…we’ll survive a little bit more Qualitative representation $ Voice Bottom up Revenues ARPU Price per Mbyte wireline 0 Today t 22 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS Technologies Sensors/Awar Optical Tags Bar Codes/Sem DNA/Nano Mrkrs Image Localiz RFID Print. Elect OBJECTS Detection Systems Network Mirror Cars Hand readers Cell Phones/Ca Cell Phones NFC 23 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS OBJECTS Detection Systems Technologies Municipal. Tourist Ag. A M Product Pr. B I Content Pr. E N Individ.WK T Comm.WK Regulations 24 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Ntw Pl/Host Google Snapfish Tourist Ag. A M Product Pr. B I Content Pr. E N Srv.Aggr. CONNECTIV. Technologies Track/V.A Individ.WK T Comm.WK Regulations 25 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS OBJECTS Technologies Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. Product Pr. B I Track/V.A CONNECTIV. Aggregators Municipal. A M Detection Systems Content Pr. E N Individ.WK T Comm.WK Regulations 26 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS OBJECTS Aggregators Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. A M Product Pr. B I Track/V.A Serv.Prov. META Data C. CONNECTIV. Municipal. Content Pr. E N Detection Systems Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. CONTEXT-MEANING Technologies Individ.WK T Comm.WK Regulations 27 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS OBJECTS Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. A M Product Pr. B I Track/V.A META Data C. CONNECTIV. Piattaforme Serv.Prov. Content Pr. E N Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Industry Devices NEW PROCESSES Aggregators Municipal. Detection Systems CONTEXT-MEANING Technologies Logistics CRM PHARMA News/Mg Individ.WK T Comm.WK Regulations 28 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS 29 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center INTERNET with THINGS The vineyard Wine tasting Buy! Your diet Wine History 30 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center The DIGITAL HOME Ambient Awareness - Sensors everywhere - Smart materials - Profile oriented behavior - Self inventory, Config. - Robots 31 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center The DIGITAL HOME Ambient Awareness Being here, being there - Sense of presence - Multisensoriality - Social Communication Screens: 4k >> 8k Holography 32 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center The DIGITAL HOME Ambient Awareness Being here, being there Lung Cancer Sensor Well Being - Smart Drugs - Smart Diets - Micro Climate - Funct. Gym Autonomic Drug Dispenser 33 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center The DIGITAL HOME 25,000 Radio Ambient Awareness Being here, being there Well Being Enterteinment - What I want, when I want it - What we want, all together - The director is…me 34 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center Life in Bits The DIGITAL HOME Ambient Awareness Being here, being there Well Being Enterteinment Digital Shadow - Artificial Memory - Evolving profile Magic Mirror 35 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center The DIGITAL HOME Ambient Awareness Being here, being there Well Being Enterteinment Digital Shadow Energy Control - Home Mgt. 36 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center DIGITAL SHADOW 37 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center DIGITAL SHADOW 39 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center CLOUD COMPUTING Resource Sharing - Infrastructure in the Cloud - Platforms in the Cloud - Applications in the Cloud - One data bank - Processing on demand - Virtualization 40 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center CLOUD COMPUTING 2500 desktop, 35 server, 3 locations Resource Sharing TCO Decreased - Thin Client - One fix, it fixes them all - Social Communication Source: Gartner Research 41 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center CLOUD COMPUTING Resource Sharing TCO Decreased Neutral PC - USB key Access - Security Assurance - PC as Fringe Benefit 42 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center CLOUD COMPUTING Resource Sharing TCO Decreased Neutral PC Mobile Support - Back stage processing - Hive Support 43 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center ENTERPRISE – Business Networks Biz Ecosystems - De facto Outsourcing - Innovation Insourcing - The Client is part of the Ecosystem www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj/471/tian.html 44 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center ENTERPRISE – Business Networks Custom ers EDUCATIONAL PLATFORM Biz Ecosystems Platforms - Low entry thresholds - Foster Partnerships - CAPEX Decrease - Ecosystem leveraging Privacy & Security Identity Management Educational Services Portal Learning Content Manageme Collaboration nt System Gaming Platform providing Web Collaboration functionalties using a commercial product Semantic search Tutorials & Busines s Simulati on ManagementBusine ss System Games Contents provided by various editors (De Agostini, Giunti,…) Platform providing eLearning functionalities using an Open Source product Platform providing semantic search functions using a commercial product INTRANET (link web, meta-tag HTML, ecc..) DB Documentation of each type of information on file system, relational database, etc.. Contents provided by various sources (Bocconi, …) 45 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center ENTERPRISE – Business Networks Biz Ecosystems Platforms www.opuce.tid.es/blog/ Service Exposure - Ecosystem creation - Control Points - Fast creation and deployment 46 | Roberto SARACCO | Future Center ENTERPRISE – Business Networks Biz Ecosystems Platforms Service Exposure Enterprise Third Parties Third Parties CRM - From Cost to Revenues - From Product to Service - New biz space Clients Ambient Integrators 47 Sao Paulo, February 18th, 2009 Evolution of Telecommunications In the World of Ecosystems Thanks | Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center | [email protected]
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