Sao Paulo, February 18th, 2009
Evolution of Telecommunications
In the World of Ecosystems
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
[email protected]
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
SOMMARIO
The shift: from Value Chains to Ecosystems
Technology Evolution and its Impact on Business
Infrastructures towards a Utilities Paradigm
Me and my cell phone in the next decade
A few examples:
- Internet with things
- The Digital Home
- Digital Shadow
- Cloud Computing
- Enterprise Networks
1
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS
…2000
EFFICIENCY
 Internal Innovation
 Strong Control of Depl.
Innovation
 Efficiency to compete
 Competition pushes value
at the end client
VALUE
2
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS
2000 … NOW
VALUE
 Strong Control of Depl.
 Shared Control on Root
 Scale advantage
Innovation
 Concurrent Innovation
 Competition is on price
PERCEIVED VALUE
3
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
From VALUE CHAINS to ECOSYSTEMS
NOW … Next Decade
 Out of field Innovation
VALUE
 Marginal-No Control of Depl.
 Mashed Value Creation
Innovation
 Intermediation Advantage
 Competition is on biz Models
PERCEIVED VALUE
4
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
THE SMALL WORLD
Tech
Ambient
Market
n(k)
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
k
13
15
17
19
21
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| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
BIO vs TECHNO – ECONOMIC ECOSYSTEM
Evolution
Random + Selection
Env.Share + variations
Success
Dynamic Equilibrium Internal Competition
New Configurations
Creativity + Market
Market share + release
Dynamic Equilibrium
External Competition New Value Chains
6
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
BIO vs TECHNO – ECONOMIC ECOSYSTEM
Speciation
Food Chains
Discontinuity
Displacement
Cross Feedback
Value Chains
Local Optimum No Return thresholds
Advantage
of the small
Energy Consumption
Production Process
Economic Efficiency
7
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET 2020 – MY VISION
Social Networks
Usage
Environment
Production
Distribution Environment
Environment
Balkanisation
Management
Institutionalised
Opinion
Market Place
INTERNET 2020
Ambient Mediated
Communications
8
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET 2020 – MY VISION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Internet grows from being a distribution chain to include production and usage
Innovation is the key competitive differentiator for enterprises (cost fades)
400M+ new labour force 90%+ ouside of Europe: leveraging is crucial
Social networks aggregate on a cultural base; Internet is neutral, not services and info
Social networks fragment culture and markets, may reshape democracy by influence
EUROPEAN PLATFORM
INTERNET 2020
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Bandwidth is no longer a constraint, connectivity is among data, not nodes
Communications occurr between and within ambient in a seamless way
Everything is connected via Internet, objects and people mediated by ambient/profile
90%+ of information required is locally available
Terminals are hosts for interfaces, information and applications, enable local connect.
9
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
10
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
Equip.Pr.
RIzzoli
Priv.Reg.
OceanSt
Telcos
NtwArch
Devices
UpStrm
Trust.P.
Distr.Inf.
Cloud C.
Distr.Ch
Connect.
3D.Etch
Polymer
Olograph
HMR
Dig.Shw
NanoSt
11
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded
Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2
Connected Objects
12
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
1 Gbps in every home
10 Mbps everywhere
Bandwidth is no longer a constraint
Terminals create local networks
Store and forward managed by the terminal
Terminals get the upper hand (on the network)
13
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
4/8 k screens - ultra HD
Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn.
Being there, presence, immersion
Holographic display
Information funnelling
Ambient Creation
14
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
Variety of sensors
Flexibility, integration, local data processing
Context awareness
Micro actuators
Wireless connection, local awareness
Autonomic Systems
15
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
Information Tagging, API
Open Architectures, Platforms
Third party service creation
Statistical data processing, metadata
Semantics structures
Value shifts from information to relations
16
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
Image Recognition
Image understanding
Third party service components
NanoMaterials, Bio-Computation
Integration in the production processes
Responsive objects
17
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS ON THE BIZ MODELS
Localization
Beyond Shannon
Emotional Computation
Smart Materials
Beyond Turing
Understanding
Privacy
MetaMaterials
Massive distrib. Comp.
Supercrunchers
Autonomic Systems
Massive distrib. Storage
BioEngineering
Cloud Computing
Viral Networks
MicroMachinery
Collective Intelligence
Security
DNA Sequencers
Machine Learning
Mechatronics
Avatar
Social Behaviour
Alternative energy src.
Real time rendering
Social Networking
Scavenging
18
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model
BSS – OSS PLATFORM
Broadband Area
CRM
DATA
WAREHOUSE
BILLING
ERP
SERVICE
DELIVERY
SERVICE
ASSURANCE
TRAFFIC
&
USAGE
NETWORK
MANAGEMENT
CUSTOMER
DATA BASE
WORK FORCE
MANAGEMENT
NETWORK
NEUTRAL EM
NETWORK
DATA BASE
PERSONAL COMMUNICATION
PLATFORM
P2P
VIDEO
OVER IP
VOIP
MSG
IMS
HSS
DIRECTORY
MSG
IP-DSLAM
(4.000)
ADSL2+
( ˜10Mbit/s)
//
//
//
MULTIMEDIA PLATFORM
//
C2P
WEB
BBAN CN
FTTB
RAN CN
GPON
OPTICAL
PACKET
BACKBONE
//
FTTC
VDSL2
( 50Mbit/s )
IP- MSAN
(ONU)
FTTH / B
( 100Mbit/s )
DVB-H
?
CONTENT ENGINE/DRM
MUSIC
VIDEO
GAMES
ICT
SERVICES PLATFORM
STORAGE
OPTICAL
PACKET
METRO
IPTV
B2B+C
MULTISERVICE
EDGE NODE
(POP)
MANAGED
MESSAGING
SERVICES COLLABORATION
APPLICATIONS
SOA
UTILITY COMPUTING
STORAGE
ON DEMAND
MESSAGE
STORE
DISASTER
RECOVERY
Service Centers
Ultra Broadband Area
19
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model
20
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Infrastructures drift towards a UTILITY model
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| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
If we are lucky…we’ll survive a little bit more
Qualitative representation
$
Voice
Bottom up Revenues
ARPU
Price per Mbyte
wireline
0
Today
t
22
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
Technologies
Sensors/Awar
Optical Tags
Bar Codes/Sem
DNA/Nano Mrkrs
Image Localiz
RFID Print. Elect
OBJECTS
Detection Systems
Network Mirror
Cars
Hand readers
Cell Phones/Ca
Cell Phones
NFC
23
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
OBJECTS
Detection
Systems
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
A
M
Product Pr.
B
I
Content Pr.
E
N
Individ.WK
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
24
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
OBJECTS
Detection
Systems
Municipal.
Ntw Pl/Host
Google
Snapfish
Tourist Ag.
A
M
Product Pr.
B
I
Content Pr.
E
N
Srv.Aggr.
CONNECTIV.
Technologies
Track/V.A
Individ.WK
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
25
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
OBJECTS
Technologies
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
Product Pr.
B
I
Track/V.A
CONNECTIV.
Aggregators
Municipal.
A
M
Detection
Systems
Content Pr.
E
N
Individ.WK
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
26
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
OBJECTS
Aggregators
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
A
M
Product Pr.
B
I
Track/V.A
Serv.Prov.
META Data C.
CONNECTIV.
Municipal.
Content Pr.
E
N
Detection
Systems
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
CONTEXT-MEANING
Technologies
Individ.WK
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
27
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
OBJECTS
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
A
M
Product Pr.
B
I
Track/V.A
META Data C.
CONNECTIV.
Piattaforme
Serv.Prov.
Content Pr.
E
N
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Industry
Devices
NEW PROCESSES
Aggregators
Municipal.
Detection
Systems
CONTEXT-MEANING
Technologies
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
Individ.WK
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
28
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
29
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
INTERNET with THINGS
The vineyard
Wine tasting
Buy!
Your diet
Wine History
30
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The DIGITAL HOME
Ambient Awareness
- Sensors everywhere
- Smart materials
- Profile oriented
behavior
- Self inventory, Config.
- Robots
31
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The DIGITAL HOME
 Ambient Awareness
 Being here, being there
- Sense of presence
- Multisensoriality
- Social Communication
Screens: 4k >> 8k
Holography
32
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The DIGITAL HOME
 Ambient Awareness
 Being here, being there
Lung Cancer Sensor
 Well Being
- Smart Drugs
- Smart Diets
- Micro Climate
- Funct. Gym
Autonomic Drug
Dispenser
33
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The DIGITAL HOME
25,000 Radio
 Ambient Awareness
 Being here, being there
 Well Being
 Enterteinment
- What I want, when I want it
- What we want, all together
- The director is…me
34
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Life in Bits
The DIGITAL HOME
 Ambient Awareness
 Being here, being there
 Well Being
 Enterteinment
 Digital Shadow
- Artificial Memory
- Evolving profile
Magic Mirror
35
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The DIGITAL HOME
 Ambient Awareness
 Being here, being there
 Well Being
 Enterteinment
 Digital Shadow
 Energy Control
- Home Mgt.
36
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
DIGITAL SHADOW
37
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
DIGITAL SHADOW
39
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
CLOUD COMPUTING
Resource Sharing
- Infrastructure in the Cloud
- Platforms in the Cloud
- Applications in the Cloud
- One data bank
- Processing on demand
- Virtualization
40
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
CLOUD COMPUTING
2500 desktop, 35 server, 3 locations
 Resource Sharing
 TCO Decreased
- Thin Client
- One fix, it fixes them all
- Social Communication
Source: Gartner Research
41
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
CLOUD COMPUTING
 Resource Sharing
 TCO Decreased
 Neutral PC
- USB key Access
- Security Assurance
- PC as Fringe Benefit
42
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
CLOUD COMPUTING
 Resource Sharing
 TCO Decreased
 Neutral PC
 Mobile Support
- Back stage processing
- Hive Support
43
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
ENTERPRISE – Business Networks
 Biz Ecosystems
- De facto Outsourcing
- Innovation Insourcing
- The Client is part of
the Ecosystem
www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj/471/tian.html
44
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
ENTERPRISE – Business Networks
Custom
ers
EDUCATIONAL PLATFORM
 Biz Ecosystems
 Platforms
- Low entry thresholds
- Foster Partnerships
- CAPEX Decrease
- Ecosystem leveraging
Privacy & Security
Identity Management
Educational Services Portal
Learning
Content
Manageme
Collaboration nt
System
Gaming
Platform providing Web
Collaboration
functionalties using a
commercial product
Semantic
search
Tutorials
&
Busines
s
Simulati
on
ManagementBusine
ss
System
Games
Contents
provided by
various editors
(De Agostini,
Giunti,…)
Platform providing
eLearning
functionalities using an
Open Source product
Platform providing
semantic search
functions using a
commercial product
INTRANET
(link web,
meta-tag
HTML,
ecc..)
DB
Documentation of
each type of
information on file
system, relational
database, etc..
Contents
provided by
various sources
(Bocconi, …)
45
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
ENTERPRISE – Business Networks
 Biz Ecosystems
 Platforms
www.opuce.tid.es/blog/
 Service Exposure
- Ecosystem creation
- Control Points
- Fast creation and deployment
46
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
ENTERPRISE – Business Networks
 Biz Ecosystems
 Platforms
 Service Exposure
Enterprise
Third Parties
Third Parties
 CRM
- From Cost to Revenues
- From Product to Service
- New biz space
Clients
Ambient
Integrators
47
Sao Paulo, February 18th, 2009
Evolution of Telecommunications
In the World of Ecosystems
Thanks
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
[email protected]