28 Technical Paper Transportation P r o f e s s i o n a l July/August 2009 Changing travel behaviour: Lessons from ‘behavioural economics’ Road pricing and other fiscal means of influencing travel decisions have lost favour, but study of travellers’ economic decisions suggests a new way of changing – or ‘nudging’ – behaviour. This paper is by Dr Erel Avineri. Introduction Concerns over climate change, air pollution, health and congestion on the road network are leading governments to take action to change the way people travel. Individuals are being encouraged to behave in more sustainable ways. Economic interventions, such as road user charging or fuel tax, have a rationale but are unpopular. Insights from behavioural economics, however, inspire ‘softer’ interventions to influence travel decisions without limiting freedom of choice. This article discusses how new developments in behavioural economics might be relevant to transport and illustrates the use of ‘nudges’ to encourage decisions in favour of preferable travel options. Locations for nudges: Intelligent use of information systems could trigger behavioural change The standard economics approach to changing travel behaviour One of the main arguments in favour of government interventions to reduce demand for transport is the failure of individual travellers to consider the full consequences of their travel choices. Effects on pollution and global warming, as well as the congestion imposed on other road users, are largely ignored by the traveller decision making processes. The key to the success and effectiveness of an intervention would be, according to neoclassical economic theory, to “get the prices right”. Governments, through economic interventions, taxes and subsidies, try to change travellers’ choices. The promise of behavioural economics In conventional transport studies, the individual traveller is commonly seen as a rational human being who tends to maximize the benefits and reduce the costs of travel. However, evidence from behavioural, cognitive and social sciences is painting a more complex picture of decision making processes. In real life the behaviour of travellers is typified by limited cognitive resources – for example, difficulties in processing large amounts of data – bounded rationality (in many cases we fail to make the best choices) and emotional and habitual behaviour. Behavioural economics is a relatively new branch of economics, which applies insights from behavioural sciences to better understand and predict how people make economic decisions. One of the key observations of behavioural economics is ‘framing’ – how the manner in which a choice is presented to the individual affects his or her decision. Studies provide evidence that travellers fail to make the better travel choices for themselves even in rather simple tasks, and that they are strongly influenced by the way travel information is presented to them1. One of the potential benefits of behavioural economics is the development of interventions that help individuals by taking into account the systematic mistakes and biases that influence their choices. Thaler and Sunstein2 suggest incorporation of small features or ‘nudges’ in the environment to attract peoples’ attention, highlight the ‘right’ choices for them and alter their behaviour. Similarily, the art and science of ‘choice architecture’ could be used to inspire design of information provided to travellers, as part of a measure such as a travel plan, or as a principle in the design of travel information systems. The following example illustrates how a ‘nudge’ could change travel behaviour. Framing and “Loss Aversion” People tend to feel and behave differently when information is presented (or ‘framed’) in terms of gains or losses. The emotion of loss is more powerful than that of gain. Roughly July/August 2009 Technical Paper Transportation P r o f e s s i o n a l A Commuting by car will take 20 minutes Cycle-commuting will take 15 minutes B Commuting by car will take 20 minutes Choosing to commute by bike, your journey will be 5 minutes shorter C Cycle-commuting will take 15 minutes Choosing to commute by car, your journey will be 5 minutes longer Figure 1 Framing Effects: Three ways of presenting travel information speaking, losing £100 produces a negative emotion twice as strong as the positive feeling experienced when gaining £100. Studies bring evidence that travellers exhibit aversion to loss and have a strong tendency to avoid choices associated with losses. The framing of choice outcomes as gains or losses could be applied as a nudge to encourage travellers towards a specific choice. Figure 1 illustrates three ways of presenting the same information on the journey time of two options: car and cycle commuting. Under the conventional rational choice model, the format of the information should not matter. The information presented by all three formats is of the same content; it is the difference in how it is presented that could influence the choice – in a way that cannot be explained or predicted by classical economics. It is difficult to predict how ‘unframed’ information on the options (alternative A) will be interpreted and used by the traveller. Framing cycling as a choice that carries possible gain (as illustrated in alternative B), or the even stronger nudge (alternative C) where the choice of commuting by car is framed as a loss, are ways to make cycling appear more attractive than the alternative. None of the information formats impose a restriction of the travel options for the traveller. However, he or she is encouraged to choose the option which is considered to be preferable. Salience Behavioural change is more likely if feedback on behaviour is given to travellers or the impacts of their journeys made more conspicuous. Many drivers have already experienced nudges; some Advanced Vehicle Control & Safety Systems sound high pitch alerts when drivers exceed a speed limit or when leaving a lane. This warning signal serves as a nudge – providing feedback on behaviour and helping the driver avoid behaviour that leads to the sound alert. A specific challenge faced by designers of transport systems is how to inform travellers about the environmental costs of their journeys. Carbon emissions are invisible, so it is therefore difficult to associate travel behaviour with environmental costs. New research at the University of the West of England explores how to effectively incorporate nudges in the design of travel information systems. Conclusions Nudges can help overcome cognitive bias, highlight better choices and increase the effect of behavioural change – without restricting choices. In liberal democratic regimes, where public and political acceptability of economic interventions are low, the nudging of travellers through ‘choice architecture’ could be one of the more promising approaches to deal with the urgent need for radical behavioural change. The effectiveness and acceptability of interventions to change travel behaviour may be enhanced if more consideration and emphasis is given to the design of travel information through nudges; however this should be seen as complementary rather than an alternative to other measures. A specific area of application in which choice architecture might be relevant and effective in changing travel behaviour is the design of Advanced Traveller Information Systems. Careful design of the way information is provided to the user could help to influence travel choice. With the technological level of modern systems and the widespread availability of travel information services, the incorporation of nudges into such systems is easier and more cost effective than ever. This could be the trigger to achieve the behavioural change we urgently need. Dr Erel Avineri is a reader in travel behaviour at the University of the West of England’s Centre for Transport & Society (CTS) in Bristol. Erel has managed projects and acted as a consultant to more than 50 leading companies and government agencies for transport and logistics. He is a member of the US Transportation Research Board's Committee on Artificial Intelligence, and an Honorary Secretary of the Universities’ Transport Study Group. For CTS, Erel is leading research on travel behaviour, what influences it, how to predict it, and how to design demand management measures to change travel behaviour. His current teaching responsibilities include lecturing in various transport planning modules and leading postgraduate modules on Changing Travel Behaviour and Transport Economics & Appraisal. Xtra-info: www.transport.uwe.ac.uk/staff/erel.asp This paper has been produced and peer reviewed on behalf of the IHT Transport Policy Board. Additional reading: • Creatures of Habit (The Art of Behavioural Change) by J Prendergrast, B Foley, V Menne and AK Isaac www.smf.co.uk • Positive Energy (Harnessing People Power to Promote Climate Change) by S Retallack, T Lawrence with M Lockwood www.ippr.org References 1. Avineri, E. and Prashker, J.N. (2006), The Impact of Travel Time Information on Travelers' Learning under Uncertainty. 2. Thaler, R. and Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness. 29
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