Globelics Academy 2007 Lisbon Portugal May 02. May 11 Changing Engines of Growth in China: From FDI and Privatization to Innovation and Knowledge Furong Jin, Keun Lee, and Yee-Kyoung Kim Dep’t of Economics, Seoul National University KOREA Contents • Introduction • Literature Review • Data and Methodology • Changing Engines of Growth in China • China’s S&T policies and the performance of Knowledge/Innovation • Knowledge/Innovation Performance Index and its Determinants • Knowledge/Innovation Performance and Economic Growth • Conclusion Introduction December 1978 China’s Reform and Openness policies Remarkable Economic Performance 9% of average annual economic growth FDI? What is the driving force of such economic performance? Privatization of SOE? Exports? Knowledge? Innovation? Existing Literature on Determinants of Growth in China (+) impact of FDI, Exports : Lee, 1996; Berthélemy and Démurger, 2000; Tian et al., 2004; Kawakami, 2004 (-) impact of bigger state sector ( + impact of privatization) : Chen and Feng (2000), Phillips and Shen, 2005; Kawakami, 2004 Papers on the relationship between technological innovation and economic performance began to arise : Liu, 2006; Li and Florida, 2006 Data and Methodology • • China’s Provincial Data: 1988-1993 & 1997-2003 Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology , China Statistical Yearbook • Cross – Provincial Analysis Yi Ti X i ui Y: Economic growth ( per capita income growth rates) T: Variables of our interests (knowledge/innovation performance) X: Basic variables (initial income, population growth, literacy, coastal dummy) and other control variables (Policy and infrastructure) OLS and 2-stage LS to control possible endogeneity of T variables (instrument variables) Economic Growth : Basic Regression 1988-1993 vs. 1997-2003 Coastal dummy: + over both periods, Illiteracy rate and Population growth: - over the later period Initial income: - over the earlier period <Table 1> Regression Results with Basic Variables Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate Initial income Population growth Observations R2 (1) (2) 1988~1993 1997~2003 3.231 1.471 (0.015)** (0.000)*** -0.077 -0.068 (0.368) (0.009)*** -1.741 0.003 (0.089)* (0.941) -0.191 -0.932 (0.871) (0.000)*** 30 31 0.329 0.565 Policies and Economic Growth: 1988-1993 Rather, economic policy variables had significant impacts on growth . Exports and Foreign Direct Investment: + vs. ratio of State ownership: (1) Coastal dummy 2.513 (0.021) Illiteracy rate Initial incom Population growth Share of exports (2) (3) 3.408 ** (0.006) *** 2.096 (0.205) -0.062 -0.036 -0.089 (0.374) (0.651) (0.280) -2.411 -1.835 -0.302 (0.007)*** (0.054)* (0.855) -1.301 -0.931 -0.309 (0.201) (0.414) (0.770) 0.119 (0.001)*** Share of FDI 0.325 (0.030)** Ratio of state ownership -0.17 (0.023)** Observations R2 30 30 30 0.576 0.451 0.506 Policies and Economic Growth: 1997-2003 The significance of such economic policy variables was reduced over the later period. Exports are still significant but Foreign Direct Investment and the ratio of State ownership lost their significance. Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate Initial income Population growth Share of FDI (1) (2) (3) 1.15 (0.016)** 0.712 (0.050)** 1.443 (0.001)*** -0.078 -0.088 -0.07 (0.005)*** (0.000)*** (0.017)** -0.011 -0.005 0.011 (0.811) (0.877) (0.856) -1.054 -1.474 -0.951 (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.001)*** 0.085 (0.245) Share of exports 0.044 (0.001)*** Ratio of state ownership 0.005 (0.846) Observations R2 31 31 31 0.589 0.729 0.566 China’s S&T policies and the performance of Knowledge/Innovation 70000 1.4 60000 1.2 50000 1 40000 0.8 30000 0.6 20000 0.4 10000 0.2 0 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Inventions patents No. of Papers R&D/GDP R&D/GDP No. of inventions patents/ No. of papers May 1995: the Decision on Accelerating Scientific and Technological Progress. China’s S&T policies and the performance of Knowledge/Innovation China now has the world’s fourth largest R&D spending worldwide, at USD 94 billion, just behind the United States, the EU and Japan (OECD STI outlook, 2006). China now has become the fifth leading nation in terms of its share of the world’s scientific publications, after the USA, Japan, the UK, and Germany, respectively (Zhou and Leydesdorff, 2006). Methodology: Cross-Provincial Analysis Two-Stage Least Squares 1st stage: Knowledge/Innovation Performance Equation T : Knowledge/innovation performance (5 indicators of knowledge/innovation performance) : Instrumental variables, innovation system variables (Univ. graduates, R&D personnel, No. of computers & ratio of technology trade) Z H : Control variables 2nd stage: Economic Growth Equation Yi Tˆi X i ui (2) Y Tˆ : Economic growth X : Control variables (policy and infrastructure) : Predicted value of knowledge/innovation performance 5 Indicators of Knowledge/Innovation Performance INDICATOR COMPONENTS 1) Patent 2) 3) 4) Papers 1) 2) IVs the number of patent applications (and grants) per 1) 10,000 persons, the increase rate of patent applications (and grants), the number of utility patent applications (and grants) 2) per 10,000 persons, the increase rate of utility patent applications (and 3) grants) No. of R&D personnel in firms No. of computers Ratio of technology trade the number of domestic science research papers per 1) 10,000 persons The increase rate of domestic science research papers 2) Ratio of university graduates No. of computers 1) New Products 1) 2) an increased rate of output values of new products of both nation-level and province-level a ratio of output values of new products to sales. 2) Amount of book consumption Ratio of government expenditure on S&T 5 Indicators of Knowledge/Innovation Performance INDICATOR COMPONENTS IVs 1) Start-ups Combined Knowledge/ innovation Indicator 1) 2) the number of newly registered firms the increase rate in the number of newly registered firms After summing up the above four indicators, then divide it by 4 2) 1) 2) 3) Ratio of university graduates No. of R&D personnel in firms No . Of university graduates No. of R&D personnel in firms No. of computers Determinants of Knowledge/Innovation Performance: Patents No. of R&D personnel in firms, No. of computers, and Ratio of technology trade are all positively significant after controlling for other variables. Number of R&D personnel in firms Number of computers Ratio of technology trade (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 0.080 (0.004)*** 0.028 (0.048)** 0.230 (0.010)*** 0.067 (0.074)* 0.026 (0.066)* 0.218 (0.020)** 0.004 (0.622) 0.070 (0.008)*** 0.033 (0.018)** 0.211 (0.014)** 0.080 (0.004)*** 0.027 (0.095)* 0.231 (0.012)** 0.100 (0.000)*** 0.033 (0.010)*** 0.205 (0.010)*** Amount of book consumption Ratio of government expenditure on education (6) (7) 0.075 0.077 0.081 (0.003)*** (0.005)*** (0.004)*** -0.003 0.020 0.014 (0.880) (0.199) (0.467) 0.302 0.248 0.273 (0.001) *** (0.008) *** (0.007) *** -0.037 (0.076)* Ratio of government expenditure on S&T 0.008 (0.933) Ratio of R&D expenditure of firms -0.430 (0.005)*** Share of exports 0.012 (0.027) ** Share of FDI 0.019 (0.357) Share of export * Share of FDI Observations R2 (8) 31 0.833 31 0.834 31 0.852 31 0.833 31 0.877 31 0.862 31 0.838 0.0004 (0.309) 31 0.840 Determinants of Knowledge/Innovation Performance: Papers No. of university graduates, No. of computers are all positively significant at the 5 or 1% significance levels after controlling for other variables Ratio of university graduates Number of computers (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 0.169 0.155 0.162 0.165 0.165 0.171 0.197 0.161 0.165 0.149 (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** 0.044 0.040 0.048 0.057 0.043 0.040 0.062 0.092 0.063 0.088 (0.007)*** (0.028)** (0.007)*** (0.005)*** (0.014)** (0.021)** (0.005)*** (0.000)*** (0.001)*** (0.000)*** Amount of book consumption 0.006 (0.570) Ratio of government expenditure on education -0.024 (0.490) Ratio of government expenditure on S&T -0.188 (0.229) Number of R&D personnel in firms 0.011 (0.820) Ratio of R&D expenditure of firms 0.167 (0.510) Number of telephones -0.011 (0.190) Share of exports -0.022 (0.003)*** Share of FDI -0.058 (0.060)* Share of export * Share of FDI -0.002 (0.001)*** Observations R2 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.826 0.828 0.829 0.835 0.826 0.829 0.837 0.875 0.848 0.882 Determinants of Knowledge/Innovation Performance: New Products Amount of book consumption, Ratio of government expenditure on S&T are all positively significant after controlling for other variables Amount of book consumption Ratio of government expenditure on S&T (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 0.027 0.024 0.027 0.026 0.025 0.035 0.021 0.031 0.029 0.028 (0.002)*** (0.071)* (0.002)*** (0.003)*** (0.031)** (0.014)** (0.039)** (0.001)*** (0.001)*** (0.001)*** 0.476 0.471 0.465 0.460 0.439 0.579 0.454 0.607 0.555 0.560 (0.008)*** (0.010)*** (0.011)** (0.013)** (0.042)** (0.015)** (0.012)** (0.007)*** (0.007)*** (0.009)*** Ratio of university graduates 0.015 (0.744) Ratio of government expenditure on education 0.020 (0.644) Ratio of R&D expenditure of firms 0.175 (0.592) Number of computers 0.008 (0.754) Number of telephones -0.008 (0.483) Ratio of technology trade 0.153 (0.320) Share of exports -0.009 (0.301) Share of FDI -0.033 (0.395) Share of export * Share of FDI -0.001 (0.433) Observations R2 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.553 0.554 0.556 0.557 0.554 0.561 0.569 0.570 0.565 0.563 Determinants of Knowledge/Innovation Performance: Start-ups The ratio of university graduates & no. of R&D personnel in firms are all positively significant after controlling for other variables Ratio of university graduates Number of R&D personnel in firms (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 0.077 0.057 0.076 0.083 0.070 0.072 0.067 0.079 0.078 0.078 (0.000)*** (0.030)** (0.001)*** (0.000)*** (0.003)*** (0.004)*** (0.031)** (0.001)*** (0.001)*** (0.001)*** 0.275 0.241 0.275 0.284 0.294 0.270 0.276 0.280 0.280 0.281 (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** Amount of book consumption 0.012 (0.193) Ratio of government expenditure on education -0.002 (0.948) Ratio of government expenditure on S&T -0.160 (0.083)* Ratio of R&D expenditure of firms -0.226 (0.237) Number of computers 0.005 (0.664) Ratio of technology trade 0.049 (0.638) Share of exports -0.002 (0.637) Share of FDI -0.011 (0.586) Share of export * Share of FDI -0.0002 (0.473) Observations R2 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.911 0.916 0.911 0.920 0.915 0.911 0.911 0.911 0.912 0.912 Determinants of Knowledge/Innovation Performance: Combined Indicator The ratio of university graduates, no. of R&D personnel in firms and the number of computers are all positively significant after controlling for other variables (1) Ratio of university graduates Number of R&D personnel in firms Number of computers (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 0.044 0.038 0.046 0.040 0.043 0.042 0.040 0.041 0.035 (0.022)** (0.076)* (0.021)** (0.049)** (0.026)** (0.055)* (0.034)** (0.030)** (0.055)* 0.119 0.108 0.120 0.126 0.119 0.117 0.123 0.123 0.123 (0.000)*** (0.002)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** 0.032 0.030 0.030 0.033 0.034 0.030 0.044 0.038 0.047 (0.002)*** (0.005)*** (0.004)*** (0.002)*** (0.006)*** (0.015)** (0.002)*** (0.001)*** (0.000)*** Amount of book consumption 0.004 (0.577) Ratio of government expenditure on education 0.011 (0.579) Ratio of R&D expenditure of firms -0.093 (0.554) Ratio of government expenditure on S&T -0.027 (0.763) Number of telephones 0.001 (0.846) Share of exports -0.006 (0.192) Share of FDI -0.020 (0.265) Share of export * Share of FDI -0.001 (0.057)* Observations R2 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.882 0.883 0.883 0.884 0.882 0.882 0.890 0.888 0.898 Knowledge/Innovation and Economic Growth: 1988-1993 No Knowledge/Innovation variables significant Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate Initial incom Population growth Patents (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 3.251 (0.016)** -0.065 (0.469) -1.941 (0.083)* -0.107 (0.929) 0.577 (0.622) 3.291 (0.013)** -0.049 (0.580) -2.127 (0.054)* 0.052 (0.965) 3.304 (0.022)** -0.078 (0.372) -1.753 (0.094)* -0.221 (0.856) 3.504 (0.009)*** -0.085 (0.315) -5.215 (0.065)* -0.695 (0.567) 3.226 (0.016)** -0.073 (0.400) -2.342 (0.108) -0.042 (0.972) Papers 0.945 (0.307) New products -0.118 (0.882) Start-ups 2.168 (0.180) Knowledge/innovation performance Observations R2 0.659 (0.549) 30 0.336 30 0.358 30 0.329 30 0.378 30 0.339 Knowledge/Innovation and Economic Growth: 1997 –2003 1) Now, Knowledge/Innovation variables and illiteracy become significant. 2) Initial income lost significance or positive -> rising inequality. Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate (1) (2) 0.566 0.942 (0.039) -0.084 -0.056 Population growth Patents *** (0.041) (4) 1.070 ** (0.170) (0.001) Initial income (3) ** (0.004) *** -0.104 (0.000) *** (5) 0.991 (0.020) 0.900 ** -0.091 (0.002) (6) *** (0.018) ** -0.088 (0.000) *** 0.956 (0.013)** -0.086 (0.001)*** 0.066 0.016 0.051 0.066 0.056 0.051 (0.117) (0.729) (0.221) (0.193) (0.181) (0.223) -1.448 -1.271 -0.899 -1.114 -1.150 -1.129 (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** (0.000)*** 1.247 (0.003)*** Papers 0.959 (0.018)** New products 0.673 (0.004)*** Start-ups 0.469 (0.021)** Knowledge/innovation performance Observations R2 F-test (p-value) Test of over identifying restrictions (p-value) OLS result 0.788 0.711 (0.005)*** (0.010)*** 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.707 0.527 0.682 0.601 0.692 0.693 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.90 0.58 0.48 0.94 0.45 0.66 1.052 0.423 0.507 0.309 0.726 0.726 (0.002)*** (0.050)** (0.003)*** (0.087)* (0.004)*** (0.004)*** Robustness Test I: Innovation to Growth Control Var. Economic Policies (1997-2003) Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate (1) (2) 0.379 0.690 population growth (5) 0.427 0.407 0.947 (7) (8) 0.673 0.736 (9) 1.113 * *** (0.199) (0.366) (0.027) (0.117) (0.062) (0.005) -0.093 -0.106 -0.099 -0.090 -0.107 -0.095 -0.071 -0.100 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 0.953 (0.015)** -0.081 (0.002)*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.004) (0.001) 0.029 0.032 0.036 0.052 0.046 0.045 0.026 0.039 0.033 (0.417) (0.399) (0.308) (0.228) (0.302) (0.298) (0.580) (0.454) (0.508) -1.643 -1.260 -1.535 -1.497 -0.945 -1.236 -1.336 -0.866 -1.099 (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 0.655 *** (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 1.165 * New products 0.676 ** 0.778 ** *** (0.003) 0.028 ** (0.035) 0.862 *** (0.013) 0.036 (0.000)*** (0.004)*** (0.004) 0.591 performance (0.000) 0.683 *** (0.035) Knowledge/innovation (0.000) *** (0.002)*** (0.005) 0.484 *** 1.213 *** (0.064) Share of exports ** (6) (0.047) *** Patents (4) (0.288) *** Initial income ** (3) (0.004)*** (0.005) 0.036 (0.002)*** Share of FDI 0.058 0.032 0.062 (0.351) (0.631) (0.329) Share of state -0.025 -0.008 -0.018 ownership (0.259) (0.707) (0.417) Observations 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 R 0.799 0.765 0.797 0.721 0.685 0.705 0.727 0.682 0.698 F-test (p-value) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.89 0.85 0.29 0.75 0.52 0.54 0.75 0.56 0.85 2 Test of over identifying restrictions (p-value) OLS result 0.775 *** (0.007) 0.329 0.548 ** (0.037) *** (0.009) 1.017 *** (0.002) 0.484 *** (0.006) 0.701 *** (0.005) 1.183 *** (0.001) 0.513 *** (0.004) 0.776 (0.003)*** Robustness Test II: Innovation to Growth Control Var. Infrastructure and other variable (1997-2003) Coastal dummy (1) (2) 0.378 1.037 (0.354) Illiteracy rate -0.093 *** (0.000) Initial income 0.120 ** (4) (5) 0.558 1.069 (0.005) (0.018) (0.182) -0.112 -0.095 -0.079 *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 0.107 * ** ** *** (0.005) -0.082 ** 0.905 ** (0.019) -0.074 -0.083 * *** *** 0.929 ** (0.006) (0.016) -0.104 -0.087 *** *** (0.046) (0.045) (0.064) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) 0.067 0.053 0.056 0.073 0.052 0.058 (0.187) (0.107) (0.222) (0.182) -1.514 -0.852 -1.111 -1.461 -0.920 -1.168 -1.506 -0.904 -1.142 *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 1.510 *** (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 1.265 0.713 0.801 *** 0.419 0.491 (0.131) (0.136) (0.075) 0.878 *** (0.003) 0.411 (0.000)*** (0.012)** (0.004) 0.836 performance (0.000) 0.679 *** (0.002) Knowledge/innovation (0.000) *** (0.010)*** (0.002) 0.735 *** 1.479 *** *** ** (0.005) (0.020) * Amount of road 0.003 0.011 0.007 (0.855) (0.491) (0.654) Population density Test of over identifying 1.052 (0.216) New products R F-test (p-value) 0.507 (0.246) (9) (0.120) (0.000) 2 (8) (0.041) *** Observations (7) (0.066) (0.000) Amount of railways (6) (0.025) *** Patents 0.870 *** 0.096 ** population growth (3) -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0002 (0.527) (0.919) (0.602) 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.714 0.701 0.733 0.706 0.682 0.695 0.698 0.681 0.695 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.82 0..58 0.12 0.91 0.58 0.37 0.83 0.29 0.39 0.544 0.850 restrictions (p-value) OLS result 1.118 *** (0.001) *** (0.002) *** (0.001) 1.055 *** (0.002) 0.522 *** (0.003) 0.742 *** (0.004) 1.081 *** (0.006) 0.469 0.810 ** (0.011) (0.013)** Sensitivity Tests: Innovation to Economic Growth (1997-2003) Different sample periods & proxy for the economic growth to test sensitivity. Household consumption is used as proxy (Beck & Laeven, 2004). 1996~2003 Coastal dummy Illiteracy rate (1) (2) 0.305 0.866 * (5) 0.631 1.081 (0.079) (0.163) -0.062 -0.087 -0.069 -0.093 0.094 *** (0.001) 0.080 ** *** (0.003) 0.090 * ** *** (6) *** (7) 0.941 (8) 0.958 ** *** (9) 1.365 *** (0.007) (0.025) (0.005) (0.000) -0.109 -0.096 -0.088 -0.103 *** *** *** *** 1.208 (0.000)*** -0.089 (0.006)*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.005) (0.003) 0.046 0.031 0.035 -0.045 -0.108 0.084 (0.051) (0.028) (0.314) (0.481) (0.441) (0.800) (0.568) (0.653) -1.459 -0.817 -1.141 -1.483 -1.000 -1.215 -0.534 -0.043 -0.291 (0.835) (0.195) (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 1.452 (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) 0.584 *** (0.003)*** (0.018) 1.025 0.673 *** performance 0.670 ** (0.000) Knowledge/innovation (0.037) (0.001)*** (0.012) 0.830 ** 1.137 ** (0.001) New products *** 1.099 *** Observations Household consumption growth (0.025) *** Patents 0.617 ** (4) (0.012) (0.006) population growth (3) (0.443) *** Initial income 1998~2003 0.787 ** (0.000) (0.003)*** (0.024) 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 R 0.716 0.701 0.718 0.674 0.648 0.646 0.723 0.686 0.695 F-test (p-value) 0.000 0.58 0.000 0.87 0.000 0.53 0.000 0.89 0.000 0.37 0.000 0.58 0.000 0.66 0.000 0.51 0.000 0.40 1.199 0.613 0.882 0.999 0.467 1.104 0.534 0.747 2 Test of over identifying restrictions (p-value) OLS result *** (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.000) *** (0.005) 0.648 ** (0.011) ** (0.016) *** (0.001) *** (0.002) (0.002)*** Conclusion • Analyzed the changing determinants of economic growth in China: cross-province regressions • For (1988-1993), economic policies such as exports, FDI, privatization were more crucial factors of economic growth. Knowledge/innovation performance did not contribute to its economic growth. • For (1997-2003), Knowledge/Innovation performance such as patents, papers, new products and start ups turned to be crucial determinants; Only Exports, among other economic policy variables, confirmed its significance. • Its robustness/Sensitivity were confirmed. • FDI has no impact on knowledge/innovation performance Thank You
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