TUSIAD Conference – Mock Scenario
Turkey’s Northeast
Participants: United States, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany/EU and Turkey
The timeframe for this scenario is 20 years, beginning in 2013 and divided into four fiveyear sections (2013, 2018, 2023, 2028.) Each 5-year section is divided into three rounds.
In each round, each participant is likely to make at least one move.
There are four types of moves to choose from:
Diplomatic (holding meetings, relaying messages, forming/breaking alliances,
demarches, UNSC activity, etc.)
Economic (investment, subsidization, sanctions, sanctions-busting, tariffs, embargo, etc.)
Military (military assistance/training, air strikes, movement of carriers, troop
deployments, etc.)
Covert (financial/military support to proxies, subversion, propaganda, deception
campaigns, assassination, etc.)
** If a covert move is employed, it will be relayed electronically to the moderator and
will be revealed to other participants at the moderator’s time of choosing.
The participant can play all four types (diplomatic, economic, military, covert) in a single
turn, do a combination of moves or choose not to exercise a move at each turn.
SESSION 1
Background (known to all participants before game begins)
The year is 2013. The United States is a few months into a new presidential term and has
completed its withdrawal from Iraq. A U.S. brigade remains in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth
Fleet tenuously remains in Bahrain. A political crisis is intensifying in Bahrain following
elections held two months prior in which an umbrella Shiite coalition is accusing the
Sunni royal family of massive vote-rigging. The Shiite coalition campaigned on a
platform of Shiite solidarity, resistance against Saudi interference and Bahraini military
autonomy from the United States.
The Saudi kingdom is concerned that the Shiite unrest in Bahrain will reinvigorate Shiite
protests in Eastern Province at Iran’s prodding. Iran has been cracking down on
simmering Kurdish unrest in the north and preparations have begun for elections to be
held later in the year. In Iraq, militant activity in Iraq is on the decline and investors from
Europe, the United States, China and Russia are competing for major oil projects in the
south.
In the Levant region, Israel has just initiated a military offensive in the Gaza Strip
following a barrage of rocket attacks and a major suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv shopping
mall.
Russia has begun to turn to the Baltic states in trying to assert its influence in northern
Europe, but is concerned that U.S. disentanglement from the Middle East following the
Iraq withdrawal will hamper its plans. Germany is largely preoccupied with Europe
following a default by Greece that is threatening to plunge the European Union into
another financial crisis.
ROUND I
[Revealed by moderator at start of session]
U.S., European and Russian seismologists have confirmed that Iran has successfully
detonated a nuclear device. Israeli and U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is
likely at least two years away from being able to weaponize a device.
All participants in the first round will submit their first move to the moderator.
Saudi Arabia – Chooses diplomatic option – Sends Crown Prince, Defense Minister and
intelligence chief to Muscat for a closed-door meeting with U.S. secretary of defense.
Message urges U.S. military action against Iran, but maintains that the regional
circumstances make the risk of contributing Saudi air space or bases to the mission too
high for Saudi Arabia to become overtly involved. Saudi Arabia suggests Turkey as an
alternative basing option.
Israel – Chooses diplomatic/military option – Sends an envoy to Washington to discuss
feasibility plan for air strikes on Iran. Proposes air exercises with the US and Turkey to
simulate attack on Iran. While IDF are deployed already in Gaza, Israel begins shifting
forces to Israel’s northern frontier with Lebanon.
United States – Chooses diplomatic/military option - Calls for immediate reassessment
of intelligence on Iranian nuclear development timeline, moves an additional carrier to
the Persian Gulf, calls for a crisis meeting of the UNSC, where it reveals (and later leaks
to the Washington Post) information on weapons components being shipped to a nuclear
facility in northeastern Iran from an unidentified European country.
Russia – Chooses diplomatic option – Calls for UNSC meeting
Germany - Chooses diplomatic/economic option – Calls for UNSC meeting, supports an
intensification of sanctions on Iran’s banking and industrial sector.
Turkey – Chooses diplomatic option – Sends envoy to Iran to warn against further
provocation, positions itself to mediate in crisis. Calls for regional forum in Istanbul and
extends invitation to US, Germany/EU, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
MODERATOR - A UNSC meeting is held, and all permanent members vote yes to a
diplomatic censure against Iran, demanding that Iran allow in IAEA inspectors and come
forward with information regarding its development of a weaponized device. Sanctions
are intensified on Iran, but no other punitive actions are specified. Sanctions on Iranian
gasoline supply at this point are likely to have little impact, as China has completed
upgrading Iran’s main refineries, raising gasoline output by 60 percent.
ROUND 2
US
Israel
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Germany/EU
Iran
MODERATOR
ROUND 3
Israel
Russia
Germany/EU
US
Iran
Turkey
SESSION II
-- The "trigger" of the series begins by being announced by the moderator. It is not preknown to the players.
-- The first round of every section begins by all players writing down their moves/turns at
the same time. This forces "reactions" from all of them to be instantaneous. Subsequent
two rounds of the section are ordered. The moderator decides the order.
-- Moderator decides what is the "trigger" before every section.
-- Moderator can also decide whether an action -- such as UNSC meeting or military
operation -- succeeds or fails in between the rounds.
-- Moderator can also declare a policy move by the player's country. However, since we
are trying to get the players to act as policy makers -- not just diplomats executing their
country's policies -- we should not use this option too much. The moderator should try to
resist playing "God" too much.
-- Moderator can call on a country to react. After each round -- and especially the initial
round -- the moderator can select which moves were really important and require a
response. This prevents players from IGNORING key events and lets the moderator
intervene without himself/herself making the call.
Some suggested "triggers":
-- Iran detonates nuclear device.
-- Shia Bahrain kicks out U.S. 5th Fleet.
-- Shia Bahrain invites an Iranian military base.
-- Iran tests a long range missile that flies over Tel Aviv accurately and splashes in the
Mediterranean
-- Shia rebellion in south of Iraq.
-- Iran invades south of Iraq to contain Shias.
-- China retools Iranian refineries giving them sufficient refining capacity to become selfreliant on gasoline products.