Primary Elections
How do we choose the
party’s candidate?
Primary Elections
• Each political party must pick ONE person
to become the nominee
• Republicans chose among…
Rudy
Guiliani
Fred
Thompson
John
McCain
Mitt
Romney
Mike
Huckabee
Who’s Winning? Latest Polls (October 2007)
Registered Democrats' choice for nominee for
2008*
Clinton
39%
Registered Republicans' choice for nominee for
2008*
Giuliani
27%
Obama
20%
F. Thompson
26%
Edwards
15%
McCain
14%
Gore
13%
Romney
10%
Richardson
4%
Gingrich
6%
Kucinich
3%
Huckabee
4%
Biden
2%
Tancredo
2%
Gravel
1%
Brownback
1%
Dodd
**
Hunter
1%
2012 ?
VERSUS
Power!
• Each state holds primary elections
on different days over 6 months
• Historically:
– Iowa & New Hampshire vote 1st in
January
– Last state – June
• Generally winner of each party is
determined in first few months
I wanna be first!!!!
• Frontloading: moving up primary
election date
• Political parties set dates: Florida &
Michigan moved their dates up too
early & so votes were NOT counted!
Do the first states
hold the most power?
•
•
YES! They set the
momentum / trend for the
campaign, ppl w/few votes
drop out
NOT ALWAYS! In 2008, D’s
couldn’t decide b/w Obama &
Clinton and every single
primary affected the outcome
– winner wasn’t determined
until June
Super Tuesday
• Tuesday in February in which many states
(approx 20) all vote on same day to have a
greater impact on primary outcome
• CA votes on this day 
Should all 50 states hold their
primary on the same day?
• YES! No one state would determine
winner, all states treated equally
• NO! Candidates can focus on small area &
connect w/local ppl, gives ppl a chance to
see candidates over time / variety of
situations / time to “dig up dirt”
Primary Ballots
• In primaries, vote for one party ONLY
• Ballot only has one party on it
Democratic Presidential
Candidates
Pick only one.
Chris Dodd
Joe Biden
Barack Obama
Republican Presidential
Candidates
O
R
Pick only one.
Sam Brownbeck
John McCain
Fred Thompson
Mike Gravel
Rudy Guiliani
Dennis Kucinich
Mitt Romney
Hillary Clinton
Mike Huckabee
Primary Types
• Open Primary:
– Vote for any party you want
– Adv:
– Dis:
• Closed Primary
– Vote only for the party you registered
with
– Adv
– Dis
Should all states use the
closed primary?
National Convention
• Late summer
• Each state sends a group, called a
delegation, to their parties’ National
Convention
1.Official nominee
2.Platform determined
• Each delegation is now forced to vote
for the person who won the primary in
that state (1968) = Direct Primary
• Superdelegates – party members,
usually elected officials who can vote
according to their own opinion (D’s
only!)
–Many worried that the D nominee
would NOT be chosen by the voters
but these SUPERdelegates!
Primary Power
• Before 1960s, indirect primaries:
votes were only a suggestion and
party members would have final say
• Parties have lost power w/direct
primary
Should we return to
the indirect primary?
Campaign!
• After Convention, campaign for office
begins (late August – Nov)
• General Election: November
–Determines winner
Party Centered Campaigns:
DEcentralized parties – power is divided at
national, local & state levels
• NATIONAL Committees (RNC, DNC):
– Organize the elections:
• GOTV (Get Out The Vote): Register
ppl to vote, call, mailers, etc
– Organize National Conventions
• Service Relationship – parties support
candidates but cannot force them to do
much
Cont’d
• STATE Committees –
• LOCAL :
– Precincts: local voting district
– Grassroots level
Candidate Centered Campaigns
Candidates determine the issues & “flow” of
the election
Packaging the candidate – likeability factor
• Air wars: media fight ($$$)
– News
– Commercials: rapid response
• Do negative ads help or hinder?
• http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/2
008
– Debates
• Web wars
– Web pages
– How effective?
Ground wars
• Swing voters: independents who
could choose either party
• Battleground states OR Swing
states: states that are fairly split b/w
the 2 parties
Adv / Dis of Candidate
Centered Campaigns
•
– Chance for a
newcomer, party
outsider
– Flexible to
changing issues
and events
– Makes local
issues a priority
•
– Personality contests
– $$$ plays a large
role, too large?
– Don’t have to take
blame for
Washington, they
are still an
“outsider”
Electoral College:
only for the Pres/VP Elections
• In 48/50 states, the winner of the
popular vote receives all of the states’
electoral votes = # of ppl state send to
Congress
• In CA – 55 EV
– 3,000,000 popular votes for R
– 3,000,001 popular votes for D
– Winner takes all 55 votes!
• http://www.270towin.com/
Election Timeline
1. Announce you’re running
2. Campaign:
a) Focus on the states that vote first!
b) Raise money!
3. Win the Primary Elections
4. National Convention
a) Old days: party had ultimate decision in nominee
b) Now: People’s votes determine the nominee
5. One-on-one campaign: R v. D
6. General Election
1. Picks the winner
2. November