Managing Disasters,
Sustaining Development in
the Hindu Kush Himalayas
Aditi Mukherji
Theme Leader, Water and Air
ICIMOD
[email protected]
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
1983 - A Regional Intergovernmental
Organisation is Born
UNESCO facilitates the
establishment of ICIMOD
First ICIMOD Board of Governors Meet
August 1983, Kathmandu
Regional Charter of HKH Eight Countries and Act of Parliament of
Nepal for Headquarter Agreement
Vision, Mission, and
Governance
Vision
Governance
Men, women, and children of
the Hindu Kush Himalayas
enjoy improved wellbeing in a
healthy mountain environment.
ƒ Board of Governors (Government
representatives and independent
members)
ƒ Programme Advisory Committee
ƒ ICIMOD Support Group
Mission
To enable sustainable and
resilient mountain development
for improved and equitable
livelihoods through knowledge
and regional cooperation.
ƒ Finance Committee
ICIMOD in India
Focal Ministry: Ministry of Environment and
Forests
Nodal Institution: G.B. Pant Institute of
Himalayan Environment and Development
Partners: 32 (2012)
The Himalayas are prone to
disasters
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Disaster statistics from 1990-2012
Cumulative disaster event
Hindu Kush Himalayan region
The region has
had an average of
76 disaster
events each year.
On average, more
than 36,000
people are killed
and 178 million
affected each
year due to
natural disasters
in the region.
Source: EM-DAT – The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
Source: IndiaLookUp.in
One-third of these disasters
are floods
Transboundary floods - shared vulnerability across national borders
Types of floods in the HKH
region
Types of Floods
Riverine Floods
Flash floods result in
higher
mortality rates
Flash Floods
- Landslide dam outburst
floods
- Glacial lake outburst floods
- Rapid snow melt
- Cloud bursts
Floods are often transboundary
and data sharing mechanisms
don’t exist
• Transboundary rivers – shared
vulnerability across national borders
• Lack of exchange of real-time data
especially across national boundaries –
inadequate lead time
• Diversity of technical, scientific, and
institutional know-how
• Some bilateral agreements/treaties
exist
• Opportunity for regional cooperation to
prevent disasters
Transboundary floods have greater
impact on lives and property
But transboundary
cooperation and data
sharing can make a
difference
Globally, 10% of all floods are transboundary, and they cause over 30%
of all flood casualties and account for close to 60% of all those displaced
by floods.
Bakker, 2006
Landslide dam outburst leads to
floods: Yigong, China
India and China did not
have data sharing
agreement in place in 2000
• 9 April 2000: Landslide blocked
the Yigong River, a tributary of
the Yarlung Zangbo
(Brahmaputra) River
• The outburst occurred on 10
June 2000 and created a huge
flash flood of up to 1.26x105 m3/s
• Extensive damage, but no
casualties in China
• In India, heavy casualities
- 30 dead
- >100 missing
- >50,000 homeless
- damage of USD 22.9 million
Pareechu landslide dam outburst in
2004 when there was a data sharing
agreement in place
1 month after
landslide
2.5 months after
landslide
After landslide
dam outburst
• Data sharing policy developed between India and
China in 2003
• 22 June 2004: Landslide blocked the Pareechu River
in Tibet, the upper reaches of Sutlej River
• Chinese authorities communicated to their Indian
counterparts well before and when the breach
occured
• 56 villages along the Sutlej from Kinnaur to Bilaspur
were identified at risk
• The dam burst on 25 June 2005
• The direct cost of flood damage was an estimated
USD 200 million
• There were no human casualties because of prior
communication from the upstream country
Why should we care
about disasters in the
HKH?
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
HKH is the source of ten major
river basins
210 million
people in the
HKH
1.3 billion people
downstream
3 billion people
benefit from food
and energy
Supports extensive irrigation
systems
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Huge hydropower potential
>300,000 MW
Basins support some of the most
populated areas on the globe
Home to
4 of the 34 Global Biodiversity Hotspots,
60 Eco-regions, 488 Pas, and 330 Important Bird Areas
Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOFs)
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Snow cover over parts of the
Himalaya has been decreasing…
1973
(photo ICIMOD archive)
2011
(photo Panday)
Mt. Machhapuchhare, Nepal, 6993 meters
Rikha Samba Glacier, Hidden Valley
Lower Mustang
350
m
Glacier terminus in 1978
GEN
Google
Earth
Approximate annual retreat rate in 34 years is about 10 m/y
Retreat of glaciers and formation of
glacial lakes, e.g. Imja Lake in Nepal
1956 photograph of Imja
glacier (Photo: Fritz Muller;
courtesy of Jack Ives)
2006 photograph of Imja
glacier
(Photo: Giovanni
Kappenberger
courtesy of Alton C Byers)
Pradeep K Mool
Imja Lake growing in size over the years
• Imja developed as supra ponds
in late ‘50s.
• The seven supra ponds existed
on the glacier surface in late
‘50s.
• Before ‘80s was amalgamation
phase- merging of supra ponds.
• Late ‘80s are rapid expansion
period towards the glacier
terminus.
• The lake is still expanding.
Pradeep K Mool
Expansion of Imja Oct 2010
GLOFs
• What are GLOFs?
• When glaciers retreat, they leave behind
glacial lakes impounded by moraines
• Moraines are not stable structures and
when they topple, immense volume of
water from glacial lakes gets released
• Causing devastating floods
Why should we care about GLOFs? Because
most hydropower plants are downstream of
potentially dangerous glacial lakes
Example: Koshi Basin
•
•
•
•
About 56 GLOF events in the
HKH region to date
Potentially dangerous lakes
located upstream of
settlements and major
infrastructure
Transboundary GLOFs: 10
of 24 GLOF events in Nepal
originated in China
Transboundary approach is
crucial to address and
manage the issue
Past GLOF events in Nepal: Dig Tsho event in 1985
Dig Tsho Lake burst out in 4 August 1985
releasing 8 million m3 of water with 500m3/s
discharge at breach damaging Thame Small
Hydel Project, bridges, trekking trails, villages,
and agricultural lands as well as the loss of
human live and other infrastructure. along the
flood path of GLOF
Site of civil structures of Namche (Thame)
Thame) Small Hydel
Project, which were destroyed by the Dig Tsho GLOF
Pradeep K Mool
Zhangzangbo GLOF (1964, 1981),
Poiqu/Sun Koshi basin, China/Nepal
•
•
•
•
Zhangzangbo-cho lake in
Tibet burst twice in 1964 and
1981.
The burst discharge in 1981
was 1,600 m3/s
The amount of released
water was about 19x106 m3
This GLOF caused enormous
damage in Nepal, which
included complete
destruction of the Friendship
Bridge and two other
bridges, extensive damage to
roads and the diversion wire
of Sun Koshi Hydropower
Project
The impact of any future GLOF event is likely to be much larger than that of
previous events in 1964 and 1981
What can we do?
Map Glacial Lakes as a first step
Basin
Amu Darya
Brahmaputra
Ganges
Indus
Irrawaddy
Total
Code
Am
Br
Ga
In
Ir
Total Number
Total Area(km2)
No.
1465
9983
3810
4807
136
20201
Area
%
107.9
5.5
1330.6
68.0
241.5
12.4
Pradeep K Mool
267.8
13.7
7.8
0.4
1955.7
100.0
%
7.3
49.4
18.9
23.8
0.7
100.0
Rank lakes based on physical and
socioeconomic criteria as a second step
Pradeep K Mool
No.
List of potentially critical glacial lakes in Nepal identified in the 2010 study and their priority category (ICIMOD, 2011)
Note:
Categories among the 21 Prioritized Potentially Dangerous Lakes I. six of these were considered potentially
dangerous lakes requiring detailed field
investigation and mapping,
II.four potentially dangerous lakes which
require close monitoring with
reconnaissance field surveys, and
III.another eleven lakes which require
periodic observation
Name of the lake
Lake ID Number of 2009 Category
Study
1
Tsho Rolpa
kota_gl_0009
I
2
Lower Barun
koar_gl_0009
I
3
Imja
kodu_gl_0184
I
4
Lumding
kodu_gl_0036
I
5
West Chamjang
kodu_gl_0242
I
6
Thulagi (Dona)
gamar_gl_0018
I
7
Nagma
kotr_gl_0133
II
8
Hungu
kodu_gl_0241
II
9
Tam Pokhari
kodu_gl_0193
II
10
Hungu
kodu_gl_0229
II
11
kotr_gl_0191*
III
12
gaka_gl_0004*
III
13
Barun
koar_gl_0012*
III
14
kodu_gl_0238*
III
15
(Q)
gabu_gl_0009
III
16
(H)
kodu_gl_0220
III
17
koar_gl_0016*
III
18
(S)
gaka_gl_0008
III
19
(B)
kotr_gl_0111
III
20
East Hungu 2
kodu_gl_0239
III
Pradeep
K Mool
21
Kaligandaki (T)
gaka_gl_0022
III
*Not listed as potentially dangerous in the 2001 inventory
Quantify Potential GLOF Risk
on human population
Glacial
Lakes
Imja
Flood
Scenario
Household
Model
Max
Model
Max
Model
Max
Model
Max
Model
Max
1075
1511
422
1166
173
637
866
2519
634
1349
Population
Houses
Land (ha)
Pradeep K Mool
Tsho Rolpa
Thulagi
Sunkoshi
Average
5784
7762
1985
5183
953
3808
5782
16313
3626
7772
445
808
145
330
125
298
731
2113
362
797
314.3
377.8
26.8
129.3
32.6
109.2
36.2
166.5
102.5
179.8
And infrastructure
Glacial lake Infrastructure Schools (no) Office building (no) Temple (no) Trail (km) Road (km) Embankment (km) Bridge (no) Hydropower plant (no) Irrigation canal (km) Water mill (no) Transmission line (km) Dudhkoshi Tamakoshi (Tsho Marsyandi Bhotekoshi (Imja) Rolpa) (Thulagi) (Lumu Chimi) Average Model Max Model
Max
Model Max
Model
Max Model Max 3
3
0
2
3 4
6
13
3
6 3
4
0
2
5 6
15
17
6
7 2
3
2
11
6 13
7
10
4
9 64.7 74.2
18.3
40.7
4.2 7.7
1.4
20
22.2 35.7 4.5 4.5
3
9.8
1 2.2
24 36.5
8.1 13.3 0.5 0.5
9.85
9.85
3.6 7.4
5
5
4.7
5.7 25
25
23
23
35 35
17
30
25
28 1
0.5
5
4.5
1
0.5
5
7
0
7.3
0
1
0
16
1
2.5
6 0 4 4 6
0
6
6
3
3
3
3 0
0
2.0
4.1 Pradeep
K
Mool
4
11
3
6 14 24.5
5.9 10.0 How to manage GLOF Risk?
GLOFs are risks,
but with proper
management,
they can be
turned into
resources
Pradeep K Mool
Glacial Lakes and Associated Floods in the
Hindu Kush-Himalayas
http://www.icimod.org/publications/index.php/search/publication/686
Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and
GLOF of the HKH region
http://books.icimod.org/demo/index.php/downloads/pd/692
Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of glacial lakes in the Hindu
Kush-Himalayas and GLOF risk assessment. Kathmandu: ICIMOD
Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and
GLOF of Nepal
http://www.icimod.org/publications/index.php/search/publication/750
ICIMOD (2011) Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal.
Kathmandu: ICIMOD
http://www.icimod.org/dvds/201104_GLOF/
Pradeep K Mool
Take home messages
• HKH is a data scarce region, making prediction
even more tricky that it already is!
• Much of weather events are transboundary, so
urgent need for transboundary cooperation and
data sharing!
• Not all gloom and doom, risks like those of
GLOF can be managed by bringing together
science and policy together!
Thank you